2007 Draft Resource Thread

[DAS1410]

Thanks CJ

[colbyjack]

Baseball America has an update on unsigned RHP Max Scherzer and his negotiations with the D-Backs, which apprently aren't going so well.

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...63367.html

 

BA beat me to the punch, as my PG column this week was going to focus on how Scherzer is likely to be a wild card to this year's draft class. Fellow Boras client Luke Hochevar may have set a precedent in how Scherzer decides to proceed. It doesn't help that the D-Backs have a new scouting director (former Brewers crosschecker Tom Allison) leading the negotiations instead of former scouting director Mike Rizzo, who is now the assistant GM and VP of baseball operations for the Nationals.

 

Max Scherzer

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mscherzer06428309.jpg

[Hairps]

FWIW, Jeff Sackmann & I took CollegeSplits.com out of beta tonight. I hope folks find it to be a useful resource.

 

Enjoy.

[colbyjack]

Thanks Hairps. I didn't realize you were involved with that project. Continued thanks and kudos to both of you as I look forward to seeing that new venture continue to develop.

[colbyjack]

I think this was mentioned on another thread already, possibly this one (I obviously didn't go back to check), but Jonthan Mayo of MiLB.com has added a weekly draft-related column as well as scouting profiles of top prospects this year. The good news is that this info is free, the info is probably reliable as it likely comes from the MLB scouting bureau, and gives more information to the ever growing list of people keeping a watchful eye on draft prospects.

 

Here's a link to this week's column:

 

web.minorleaguebaseball.c...;fext=.jsp

 

And here's a link to one of the scouting profiles (Ross Detwiler in this case):

 

web.minorleaguebaseball.c...c=detwiler

 

MLB.com's draft coverage is pretty good from year-to-year, with quick scouting videos provided from the bureau. It only makes sense that they try to increase the interest by pushing more info earlier in the year, as the past couple of years they didn't start talking about it until early to mid-May (seemingly when most everyone else starts to pay attention).

[colbyjack]

PG Crosschecker has a pretty cool day-to-day top 10 feature list, in which a new top 10 list is shared each and every day. Today's top 10 list offers the top 10 college pitchers drafted the earliest since 1997. The top 10 picks offer pitchers that were taken within the top three selections, and as David Rawnsley points out, aside from Justin Verlander, the returns of these pitchers hasn't been all that great. Even Mark Prior, who is considered by many to be the greatest college pitcher ever, has had an injury-plaqued career.

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20...week6.aspx

 

Mark Mulder has had a very nice career, even if it may be cut short by his own recent injury troubles.

 

It is still very good evidence that no matter how talented the pitching prospect, no matter if they're from college or high school, you just don't know how their career is going to look 3-5 years down the road.

[colbyjack]

Allan Simpson has a really nice weekly column up today that covers a lot of different draft-related stories, including the D-Rays approach to the number one overall pick, draft-eligible sophomores and the Chatsworth program in SoCal:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20...32207.aspx

[colbyjack]

Two great draft-related stories hit PGCC's homepage last Friday:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20..._4607.aspx

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20..._4607.aspx

 

A few notes...

 

? Price is clearly the top prospect for this year's draft, surprise, surprise. The D-Rays are reportedly narrowing in on four players for the top picks who are believed to be Price, Wieters, Brackman and Detwiler. I suspect a few weeks ago after seeing Detwiler in person that a few of the teams at the top may be considering him higher than many would guess.

 

? Price is not advised by Scott Boras, as I've seen a few fan sites leak out. I think a lot of people too often associate the top prospects to Boras simply out of presumption. Price will still come at a hefty price (no pun intended), but it seems more and more clear that the D-Rays would be incredibly foolish to pass on this guy.

 

? The Pirates have already been associated with Josh Vitters, the top prep hitter. This makes a ton of sense for the Pirates, who need some impact bats in their system.

 

? Expect the uniform signing date (August 15th) to cause team to stop drafting after the 25th to 35th rounds. I'm guessing this will likely prompt a rule change down the road, one that in my mind should have already been made.

 

? Here's a Boras list of advisees: Andrew Brackman, Matt Wieters, Jake Arrieta, Julio Borbon, Josh Fields, Matt LaPorta, Wynn Pelzer, Matt Harvey, Greg Peavey, Rick Porcello, Mike Moustakas and Kentrail Davis. That may not be all of them, but the majority of the ones in the mix for round one. I have heard that Madison Bumgarner was also a possible Boras advisee, although I'm sure PGCC's list is thorough.

 

? Blake Beaven was said to be a sure-bet to be taken in the top 10.

 

? Catching is expected to be strong and deep, with many teams jumping at the chance to improve their talent at the position early.

 

? Scouts are still skeptical given Kyle Russell's success. I've comment on other thread about his big swing and high strikeout totals, which leads to his inconsitent trends.

 

? The DFE signing date is May 31st. Jordan Walden. who was once rated the top prep prospect available for the 2006 draft, is the nation's most prominent DFE canidate, currently under the control of the Angels.

 

? The TV deal with ESPN is not as solid as originally thought, as MLB made a deal with Direct TV. The deal may speed up the negotiations with ESPN.

[natedogge7]

todd morgan at scout.com has a new 1st round mock up.

 

story.scout.com/a.z?s=283&p=2&c=635519

 

this was intriging...

 

20. Los Angeles Dodgers - Jack McGeary, LHP, L-L, 6?3, 200, Roxbury Latin HS, MA

The Dodgers are all over McGeary and this may be the first pre-draft deal completed this year.

 

does anyone know anything about this?

[colbyjack]

I haven't heard the Dodgers connected to McGeary, but it is still relatively early to start connecting players with teams. It isn't surprising, and I'm a big fan of McGeary, who would be a solid pick for your Dodgers.

 

Mock drafts need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. While the writer seems to have some solid info, he did try to figure out team needs out too much, as teams rarely draft players for organizational need.

 

The biggest thing I have heard regarding the draft is that Daniel Moskos is nearly a lock to go within the top 3-5 picks, so he has him being selected a little too low (and I hope the Brewers don't pass on the guy should he be there...you just can't pass on a lefty that can touch 97, even if his future -- starter vs. reliever -- is somewhat undetermined).

[highheatnaz]

I have a friend who plays at Auburn. He told me about a kid they faced a few weeks back. The kids name is Cory Gearrin. My friend said it was by far the toughest guy he has faced ever. Apparently this Gearrin kid has the same pedigree as Joe Smith (side-arm), the pitcher drafted by the Mets last year. Gearrin's velocity apparently has gone from 88-89 in the cape to 91-93 this spring. He sounds like a guy who could be quick to the majors. Anyone have a recent report on Gearrin to validate what I have heard? Im very interested in this kid.

[colbyjack]

Cory Gearrin is legit. He's Mercer's closer, and has been nearly unhittable this year (7 hits allowed in 32 innings of work). He has 52 Ks, however he also has 21 BBs. Opposing batters are hitting .072 against him.

 

The reports you have heard are true. He throws from a low, sidearm-esque delivery with a nasty low-90s fastball. He has a good slider, and his delivery offers a lot of deception according to reports I have read/heard. He obviously has some bouts with wildness, and he doesn't have a good enough repertoire to be a starter, at least not at this point in time, and of course there are some questions about Mercer's level of competition. However, as you pointed out via your friend who plays for Auburn, he has had great success against some pretty good teams.

 

Speaking of Auburn, what happened to them once they hit their SEC schedule?

[highheatnaz]

Yeah isnt pretty for them over there.

 

So seems like from what im hearing Gearrin could be a comp round guy at the high end. Im sure a few of the teams with multiple picks (SD, SF, TOR, OAK, NYM) would like to have a guy who can move quickly.

[brewswinga2]

BA updated their top 30 rankings. Subscriber only content, any chance someone can give the top 7?

[DAS1410]

1. Price

2. Wieters

3. Vitters

4. Harvey

5. Porcello

6. Brackman

7. Detwiler

[colbyjack]

I just want to point out that I've had Vitters at #3 all spring, and that I also had Beau Mills sniffing the top 10 since my initial rankings as well. Guys that can hit at any level and continue to do so should always be ranked towards the top.

 

Jim Callis noted in his draft-related chat that the Brewers may be thinking about taking a college lefty this year, with Ross Detwiler and Daniel Moskos being the most likely candidates. I've also heard that they have been scouting the prep bats pretty hard, including Vitters, Heyward, Burgess and Jackson.

[colbyjack]

Be sure to check out David Rawnsley's most recent column on PGCC profiling the top 25 draft-eligible prospects on the rise this spring:

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/20...42307.aspx

[DAS1410]

CJ,

 

Do you have any info, draft projection (round) for RHP Anthony Ranaudo of St. Rose HS (Jackson, NJ). I saw a video of this kid, and even though he is 6'8" 225, his delivery is very fluid.

 

www.digitalsports.com/NJ/ScottStump/Ranaudo.htm

[EdgarDiazRocks]

This Brewer note from BP's Kevin Goldstein . . .

 

Quote:

---

An even more interesting name has been bandied about in Milwaukee. Scouts visiting Chatsworth High in southern California to see sure-fire first round pick Matt Dominguez have walked away even more impressed, at least offensively, with the bat of Mike Moustakas, who is on pace to rewrite parts of the California prep record book with an enormous power surge. Seen by most as a mid first-round pick like his teammate, Milwaukee is reportedly trying to figure out what the bonus expectations will be for Moustakas, who is being advised by "family friend" Scott Boras. By going seventh, Milwaukee is hoping that with a slot price roughly in the $2.25 million range would be enough to get it done.

---

[colbyjack]

Thanks for sharing that EDR, another poster shared that same info a few posts down.

 

Kevin Goldstein and Jim Callis have both taken a stab at the first 5-10 picks of the draft, with the usual caveat that a lot can still happen between now and draft day.

 

Here are the candidates being thrown around with the top 5-10 picks:

 

Devil Rays

David Price is the main name here, but PGCC reported about a month or two ago that the D-Rays were also scouting Ross Detwiler, Matt Wieters and Andrew Brackman. I'm not sure if that has changed at all, but the D-Rays do continue to look at other top players across the nation, as they definitely don't want to limit their own negotiating power even if Price is ultimately their pick.

 

Royals

One thing seems to be for sure, the Royals won't take a third baseman. Starting pitching seems to be their target, with local talent Ross Detwiler a possibility as well as Seton Hall Prep star RHP Rick Porcello. Max Scherzer is a wild-card here, as I noted a few months ago, Scherzer may be watching what is happening this spring with wide eyes since no other college righty has stood up and separated themselves from the pack.

 

Cubs

The Cubs started hot and heavy on Matt Wieters, and since then have reportedly shifted most of their attention to prep 3B Josh Vitters, the best hitter available in this year's draft class. They also have been rumored to like Andrew Brackman given their usual interest in big, tall, hard-throwing college arms such as Grant Johnson, Jeff Zamazdija, Luke Hagerty and others.

 

Pirates

The Pirates reportedly were on Vitters from day one, so they're probably pretty bummed to learn that the Cubs are all over him. Goldstein threw out Detwiler as a possibility, which makes sense since the Pirates always seem to like drafting college pitchers, particularly lefties. No other names really tossed around here, but their system and big-league team definitely could use more impact bats, so don't be surprised to see Jason Heyward or even a sleeper like Kevin Ahrens here.

 

Orioles

The O's have been hot on two players this spring: Canadian RHP Phillippe Aumont and Clemson LHP Daniel Moskos. Most seem to agree that they will avoid the Boras cllients, as most of the teams this early will.

 

Nationals

Mike Rizzo comes from the D-Backs to take over the Nats drafting duties, so don't rule out any Boras clients here due to signability. But the Nationals (and Expos), now under Jim Bowden, have never been shy about taking high school pitchers. Phillippe Aumont is a popular name here, but keep an eye on fellow prep RHPs Rick Porcello, Matt Harvey, Blake Beaven and prep LHP Madison Bumgarner. Don't rule out Max Scherzer.

 

Brewers

The Brewers of course have now been tied to prep IF Mike Moustakas, a big left-handed bat that is tearing up the SoCal high school circuit. College LHPs Detwiler and Moskos have been linked to the Brewers, as well as prep LHP Bumgarner. I don't see them taking a prep pitcher two years in a row, and the first college arm they take in round one under Jack Z's direction will be the first. That's why I think a prep bat is their target, and if it isn't Moustakas, my money is on Jason Heyward or Michael Burgess. I think Todd Frazier is a lot like Ryan Braun at the same stage, and is a sleeper to watch here.

 

Rockies

The Rockies have been linked to many of the prep bats I mentioned in regards to the Brewers just above, adding Moustakas' teammate, 3B Matt Dominguez. Tennessee CF Julio Borbon has also been mentioned as a possibility, but I just don't see him going this high given his struggles this spring. Jim Callis pointed out that the Rockies haven't gone above slot since 2000, so don't look for them to overpay to get someone that falls. I'm guessing with the Rockies IF relatively set for a long, long time, the OF would be a bigger target.

 

Diamondbacks

The big question for the D-Backs is whether they sign Max Scherzer. Former Brewers crosschecker Tom Allison is now the D-Backs scouting director, so it's hard to tell what their approach will be. If they sign Scherzer, they may look for a budget pick, and either way Allison may employ the same slot-value approach that Jack Z. has in Milwaukee. That also means they won't be shy about taking a prep pitcher, of which there could be some mighty good ones to choose from here.

 

Giants

This pick seems to be all about lefty slugger Beau Mills, as the Giants have a history selecting players from Lewis-Clark State. Mills could very well be a perfect fit for the Giants, given McCovey cove and all, and may be the left-handed slugger summoned to "replace" Barry Bonds one day. The Giants, like the D-Backs, might also be in a great position to grab a prep pitcher here, as the success of Matt Cain certainly won't prevent them from doing so. One thing to keep in mind is that the Giants have quite a few extra, early picks, a position they're not used to being in, so don't expect them to pursue a big-money player that has fallen.

 

Most seem to agree at this point in time that Matt Wieters and Andrew Brackman are pretty good candidates to fall. I really, really wish the Brewers would be ready to pounce on Wieters, but since they are one of the teams that adhere to the slot values (keep in mind they have passed on players such as Mike Pelfrey, Luke Hochevar, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew in the past), I doubt they will.

[fewgoodcards]

colby i've been thinking the same thing about the braun/frazier comp for a while. they are both pretty athletic and played short in college (even though braun slid over to 3rd his junior year). they both have power and can steal some bases. they both project at third, but a lot of people think both of them will end up in right. they both had questions about their swings, people said braun had a hitch and might struggle in higher levels (good call on that one http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) and frazier's swing has been called long in the past and he strikes out quite a bit. i don't think frazier is as good as braun, but he is solid in every aspect of the game.

 

darn brewers just swept the cards and now they are thinking about taking my guy at 7. i have been on the moustakas band wagon for the cards' pick at 18 for a while now, but its looking like he will be gone. i think he is the 2nd best hitter in the high school class behind vitters, but i think you might disagree with me and favor heyward. i guess that leaves my list for favorites for the 18th pick at mangini, dominguez, smoker, and frazier.

[colbyjack]

Another comp between Frazier and Braun is that they are (were) both relatively unproven with a wood bat. I don't remember Braun ever playing on the Cape (I seem to remember his battling some injury problems during the summers after his freshman and sophomore seasons) and Frazier didn't hit very well for Team USA last summer despite receiving praise for his raw power potential.

 

It should be noted that Frazier did hit very well on the Cape the summer after his freshman year, so the comp there isn't the greatest, but scouts are always looking at a player's most recent performances, so what he did on the Cape two summers ago may not be fresh on their minds.

 

Physically Frazier actually resembles Jeff Franceour, but I'm glad you agree with the rough comparison to Braun.

 

I'm not so sure that Moustakas will be gone. The Boras factor always looms large, and I think Goldstein's comments are more substantiated speculation than fact at this point in time, as Jack Z. plays his cards way close too his vest for someone to truly know that the Brewers are serious about nabbing him with the 7th overall pick. Based on pure talent, yes, it does sound as though he won't be around for your pick, but you never know.

[GagneCY03]

I read about the Brewers being interested in Moustakas on Sunday and was kind of surprised that they'd be linked to a Boras client. Doesnt that conflict with the Brewer's reluctance to exceed slot recommendations?

 

Also, heard any rumblings about the Dodgers? Other than that mock on scout.com I havent seen LA linked to McGeary.

[fewgoodcards]

franceour is the comp i have been using over on the cards message board. actually the comp is franceour with the ability to draw a walk. the franceour comp is probably more fair to frazier since braun is probably more of a pure hitter. i see frazier as a .260-.270 hitter with 25-30 homer pop if he reaches his potential. the sizes are also more comparable with franceour and frazier.

[DAS1410]

FGC,

 

I have been on the Moustakas band wagon for awhile also for the blue @ # 20. It is part of my draft philosophy.

My draft philosophy

 

* Take the best available player regardless of position in first 5 rounds.

* Rounds 06 - 18 ??? Rotate picks between best available/best available with signability.

* Rounds 19 - 50 ??? Take the best available player at the position(s) of greatest need.

* Fill out rosters after the draft with eligible/un-drafted college players.

* When players are equal in talent ??? Take the local product.

* When players are equal in talent ??? Take a LHH or LHP over a RHH or RHP

* When players are equal in talent ??? Take the player with the better tools.

* Avoid dealing with Satan (Scott Boras) or his clients, whenever possible.

 

(Yes ... I know Moustakas is being "Advised" by Boras)

 

Besides, the Dodgers have arms, but need impact bats.