2007 Draft Resource Thread

[colbyjack]

I wanted to add this comment provided by endaround from the trade rumors forum. This comes from a column by Keith Law over at ESPN discussing some of the new rules for draft pick compensation:

 

"The picks in the sandwich round are ordered by the Elias ratings on the free agents, so a club that lost the top-rated free agent to sign with a new club (currently San Francisco for Moises Alou) gets the first pick in that supplemental round."

 

This is something I wondered about out loud previously in this thread. I wasn't sure if the old format would be followed (in which sandwich picks were awarded to the worse teams, not in order of the Elias ranking) because Type A and Type B free agents now garner a sandwich pick. That's not really fair to the teams losing Type A free agents, since they are quite simply better than the Type B free agents.

 

If Law's statement is true, the Brewers comp pick for Ohka (or even Graffanino should he bring one) probably will come pretty late in the round based on the number of Type A and B free agents that will generate compensation this offseason.

[colbyjack]

Jim Callis has assured me twice now that Keith Law is wrong, and the MLB has told Callis specifically that the sandwich picks will be awarded as they have in the past, regardless of the Elias Sports Bureau number. Meaning, the worse team from 2006 to gain a sandwich pick will gain the first pick in the sandwich round, and so on and so forth.

 

As I noted above, since the Royals and D-Rays don't have any free agents that would garner a comp pick, the Brewers stand to have no worse than the 5th overall pick in the sandwich round (35th overall) should they offer Graffanino and/or Ohka arbitration (assuming they sign elsewhere). Keep in mind, they would not get back-to-back picks, as the compensatory selections cycle through all of the teams, one pick per team, first before starting over at the top (or bottom, depending on how you look at it).

[Brew Man Dan]

So the Brewers could get

 

7th overall(Brewers first rounder)

23rd overall(from padres, if graffy signs with them)

35ish overall(comp pick from graffy)

50ish overall(comp pick from Ohka)

60th overall(Brewers 2nd rounder)

90th overall(Brewers 3rd rounder)

 

That seems very possible, and with 6 picks in the top 90, and 3 in the top 35. I can' t wait to see what Jack Z does with this.

[colbyjack]

I have updated the list of free agents signed and the remaining free agents that were offered arbitration. There are 7 Type A free agents remaining and 14 Type B free agents that could factor into the compensation process.

 

And with 22 free agents already signed, that means there could be as many as 43 picks in the sandwich round, which means the Brewers 2nd round pick may not be until the 78th overall selection.

 

After seeing this unfold, I think they made a mistake by changing the compensation rules with Type B free agents before they changed the classifications. That's way too many sandwich picks, and really hurt the little guys that were supposed to have a pretty good pick with their 2nd rounder.

[splitterpfj]

I was thinking that too Patrick, if you're a team like KC, you pick right away, but then a boatload of players go off the board before you come up again.

 

Not the best idea.

[colbyjack]

PG Crosschecker has updated their top high school prospects, expanding their list to 2,000!!! That kind of ranking is simply unheard of.

 

www.pgcrosschecker.com/Default.aspx

 

Of course, you need to be a subscriber to view such content, but if you click on the link you will see that they have moved Rick Porcello to their #1 prep prospect (whom I have had as the top prep pitching prospect since my rankings were released a couple of months ago) and Jason Heyward is their #2 prep prospect. Heyward, who I have commented on before, really has impressed a lot of people with his all-around ability and athleticism given his size.

[GagneCY03]

BaseballAmerica.com came out with a new Top 100 list for HS'ers (Which I wont divulge, dont worry CJ) and I wanted to comment on some of the recruiting classes.

 

Pitching:

 

Two schools signed three top arms each and they'd have dream rotations if all the kids fullfilled their committments, which of course would never happen. UNC would be headlined by Matt Harvey, my favorite pitcher in this class, if he forewent the draft to better his education. The hard-throwing righty from Connecticut is still ranked among the top of the high school ranks and could be the first one taken in next June's draft. His fastball velocity (mid 90s) is only surpassed by the ease with which he throws it. He flashes a big curve and a fading circle-change, though both offerings need to be refined. Nevertheless, he'd have no problems missing aluminum bats solely with his fastball. Behind him, though not far behind, is Rick Porcello out of New Jersey. It's interesting to see two Northeast kids who are rated so highly. Anyway, he's another big righty with a good fastball. Like Harvey, Porcello has a curve and a change that need improvement, but the duo would give opposing lineups nightmares. And just to shake things up, UNC also signed Southpaw Madison Bumgarner. Another big-bodied kid from the East coast, Bumgarner lives in North Carolina so the trip would be considerably shorter for him. While his fastball isnt at the same level as Harvey's or Porcello's, it's more than the average lefty and can touch the mid 90s occassionally. He also has a ways to go with his secondary offerings. This rotation would be historic, but will never come to fruition, given the trio's ability to all garner first round bonuses.

 

The other college that nabbed three strong pitchers is Oregon State. Parlaying their CWS championship into a strong recruiting class has worked to perfection, starting with a committment from RHP Greg Peavey. The Northwest native also plays 3B, but with a fastball that can reach the mid 90s and a nasty slider in the mid 80s, his future is on the mound. And though his size isnt as impressive as the Tar Heels' trio, he makes for it in his competitive nature and experience. The next pitcher in OSU's "dream" rotation is Tanner Robles. The lefty from Utah draws comparisons to 2005 first rounder Mark Pawelek, for his home state, handedness, unusual delivery and ability to reach the mid 90s. He doesnt have much of an arsenal yet, but given the proper time and instruction, he could be a good one. And last, but certainly not least, there's Tim Alderson. The 6'7 righty is an imposing presence on the mound, but doesnt have the overpowering stuff you'd expect from a guy his size. Instead, he relies on the command of his low 90s fastball rather than the pure velocity. He had the most impressive showing at the AFLAC All American game in August, retiring the side on less than 10 pitches.

 

Two rotations that will never be, but sometimes it's fun to pretend.

[colbyjack]

I just want to point out that Jeff Suppan, whom the Brewers are reportedly pursuing, is one of three remaining type A free agents, meaning the Brewers would lose their second-round pick if they sign him. That would not stop me at all from doing so, I just wanted to point that out.

 

No compensation for Ohka, Graffy, and the possibility of losing the team's 2nd round pick shows just how hard it is to predict what picks a certain team will have where. So much more comes into play, and usually it has everything to do with money.

[Blazer25]

Quote:

---

Tim Alderson. The 6'7 righty is an imposing presence on the mound, but doesnt have the overpowering stuff you'd expect from a guy his size. Instead, he relies on the command of his low 90s fastball rather than the pure velocity.

---

 

Is this from BA? Surely they can't be serious...

 

I saw the kid throw absolute darts at 92-93 (and topped at 94) with an absolutely filthy slider (83-84) in Georgia this summer.

 

That breaking ball is as dominant as you're going to see from a HS kid. I'd definitely describe the slider as power stuff. Not to mention Alderson has above average command of 2 pitches.

 

No?Alderson doesn't throw 95-97 like Porcello and Harvey but he's a better pitcher IMO.

 

I would say Porcello and Harvey are similar to the northeast tandem of Rogers and Rainville from a few years ago...hard throwers with limited current pitchability.

 

Although Porcello might be a special one down the line with the ability to just throw FB's by guys at 96-97 with sink...think Mariano Rivera type FB.

 

Alderson is your Homer Bailey.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, I'm with Blazer, I'm not sure where you're getting you're info on Alderson, but it's certainly not from me. Here's what I wrote about him after the Aflac game, and as Blazer noted, people have seen him better:

 

Tim Alderson

Alderson and Runion opened my eyes more than any other player. Alderson used all of nine pitches to get out of the fourth inning, the only pitcher in the game that didn?t allow a single baserunner. He employs somewhat of a violent, herky-jerky delivery that creates a fair amount of deception and seems to make his stuff faster than it actually is. Alderson spotted his low 90s sinking fastball extremely well, and once he set batters up with that pitch, he put them away with a nasty, nasty slider. Yet another pitcher with a big, strong frame, the sky is the limit for Alderson.

 

Allow me to say that Alderson wasn't the only pitcher to not allow a baserunner, as Josh Smoker did so to close the game for the East squad.

 

And while a low-90s fastball isn't in the realm of Porcello, Harvey and Main, the amount of movement it has makes it just as good of a power pitch. I know Blazer like myself puts as much emphasis on movement as velocity.

 

And for what it's worth, I think guys like Alderson, Runion, Peavey, Goeddel and Ramirez have a pretty good chance to be better than the power trio of Harvey, Porcello and Main because those guys know how to pitch. From what I've seen, heard and read of the power trio is that they really struggle with this part of their games, too often relying on their power fastball, which none of them commands well consistently. When Alderson, Runion, Peavey, Goeddel and Ramirez don't have their best stuff, they can always fall back on other tried and true measures of getting batters out.

 

However, Alderson is nothing like Homer Bailey, unless you're trying to say that Alderson will be as good of a prospect some day as Bailey is now, which I can't argue with. Size and stuff-wise, he is very similar to Chris Volstad.

 

EDIT: I think I catch your comparison to Bailey now, which has more to do with geography than size, stuff or anything else. Although I would argue that Rainville was one heck of a pure pitcher in high school. If anything, he lacked physical projection, not pitchability, given his stocky build, much like Sean O'Sullivan.

[MWS77]

Can anybody tell me anything about two Alabama prep players ? Dj Jones out of Gulf Shores and. Kentrail Davis out of Theodore.

[Blazer25]

Quote:

---

I think I catch your comparison to Bailey now, which has more to do with geography than size, stuff or anything else. Although I would argue that Rainville was one heck of a pure pitcher in high school. If anything, he lacked physical projection, not pitchability, given his stocky build, much like Sean O'Sullivan.

---

 

Colby...yeah my comparison was more of the geography/ readiness type comparison vs. pure throwers that play short season HS ball.

 

Probably not the best comparison but I see the paths of these two groups being similar. The power armed guys from the NE being very hyped (maybe over-hyped?)...and the guys from the SW kind of going to the back burner.

 

I think the comparison falls short in that Porcello has a special, special FB.

[Blazer25]

Quote:

---

Can anybody tell me anything about two Alabama prep players ? Dj Jones out of Gulf Shores and. Kentrail Davis out of Theodore

---

 

Davis is a little like Kirby Pucket...i.e. undersized high energy guy that has tools but not the "body" you like. He's got a chance to be special. He's a plus runner with an average arm that will allow him to play all 3 OF positions. He hits LH and has both raw power and the ability to spray the gaps. He's an instinctive base runner that puts pressure on defenses. Very good chance to be drafted, although his body may push him down in the draft relative to his tools for some teams.

 

 

DJ Jones is a really good player that might have to go the college route. I've seen him 5+ times and he always stands out for me. He's a stocky but athletic kid, L/L and I think he'll be a 2-way guy in college. He's an above average runner, 6.7; I think and has an average OF arm. His swing shows bat speed and a level path through the zone. He hasn't shown the over the fence power but it may come. As of now he generally smokes line drives all over the field.

 

On the mound he's a 85-87 guy from a low 3/4 arm slot and gets good sink and run on his FB...he'd be a great LOOGY in college. He also throws a pretty nice slider.

 

He's committed to Auburn and although I think someone will draft him, it might not be high enough to cause him to forgo his commitment.

[colbyjack]

I really like Kentrail Davis, and I think more and more people are starting to like his overall game and package of tools despite not having the best baseball body. Here's what I wrote about him after the Aflac game:

 

Kentrail Davis

Davis stepped up to the plate and I thought I was watching Kirby Puckett. Short and stout, Davis defies his stature by showing off good power, quick hands, solid bat speed, and impressive foot speed. During the game he walked and hit an infield single, swiping a bag each time he was on base. Davis also shows good range in the outfield and an average arm at worse. He may not be the 6?4?, 200-pound athlete scouting directors pine for, but you know what you?re getting in Davis.

 

Here's his Brewerfan.net profile:

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewAma...;draftId=5

 

I don't know as much about DJ Jones, but here is his profile from Perfect Game's '06 National Showcase:

 

www.perfectgame.org/playe...eID=06natl

 

PG Crosschecker has him rated as the 71st best prep player, and tossed out a comparison to Jay Bruce for his lefty bat and his all around tools.

 

I think the comparison falls short in that Porcello has a special, special FB.

 

Agreed. I have Porcello as the top prep pitching prospect available due to his fastball, which I like better than Harvey's.

 

And speaking of prospects, there are now 50 '07 draft eligible prospects entered into the Brewerfan.net database. To access it, click on "Draft" in the maroon sub-nav bar at the top of the page, click on "2007" from the drop-down menu of past years, and then select "All" from the drop-down menu of the player profiles. Or just follow this link:

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewDra...;draftId=5

 

Please disregard the rankings at this point in time, as they need to be updated.

[GagneCY03]

What do you like better about Porcello's fastball? The movement?

[colbyjack]

I like the fact that Porcello's fastball not only touches 98, seemingly without an ounce of effort, but that there is also a little dip and dive to it. Harvey's it pretty straight if you ask me, although you can't argue with the velocity from Harvey or the ease in which he pitches too.

 

I also like Porcello's secondary pitches a little more, and I think he also commands his fastball, and other pitches, better than Harvey does.

 

And I'm a little biased when it comes to Harvey because he reminds me a lot of guys like Mike Jones and Mark Rogers. Athletic frames, easy deliveries, very good velocity, but none of them at a similar stage in their career really received much high praise for their ability to pitch. Porcello isn't perfect in this regard either, but I think he's more advanced than Harvey (and Main for that matter).

[GagneCY03]

Fair enough. I'm still a Harvey fan but I also like Porcello. Main seems to have been caught by the hype that got Jordan Walden last year (Both touched 99 and done little else to help their draft stock). What do you think of Greg Peavey? He doesnt have the size or raw velocity of Harvey and Porcello but his fastball has good life and his slider is nasty.

[Washie1]

So what do you think of Tyrell Worthington-CF , Neil Ramirez-RHP, and RICHARD LUCAS-3B

[GagneCY03]

Oh no, it's Washie!

 

Also, CJ, you have any idea why Matt Harvey didnt pitch in the WWBA? He's not on PGCC's list of the best velocities from the tournament.

[Washie1]

Yes you just can't seem to get rid of me. So what say all of you about my last post ? I would be very interested what you all think of Tyrell and Lucas the most as I know Neil is good.

[GagneCY03]

Ramirez is a good prospect, but he's been passed by guys like Harvey and Porcello. He's in that next tier.

 

The other two I havent heard of, so I cant comment on them.

[colbyjack]

I just wanted to point out that the Giants once again have done their best to get rid of as many draft picks as possible, losing their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks due to the signing of Zito, Aurillia and Roberts respectively.

 

What do you think of Greg Peavey? He doesnt have the size or raw velocity of Harvey and Porcello but his fastball has good life and his slider is nasty.

 

Another pitcher that I like due to his command of two pitches and his current pitchability. Here's what I wrote about him after the Aflac game, followed by his Brewerfan.net profile:

 

Greg Peavey

Peavey worked incredibly fast, getting the ball in his glove, getting the sign from the catcher and letting it fly. He started off by missing high, which seemed to be part of his almost impatience on the mound. But once he settled in he started to lower his low-90s sinking fastball, and flashed a very nasty curveball. Peavey walked Heyward to open the third inning, and then retired Hunter Morris, Rams and Tolisano in order, Morris and Rams on a 91 mph fastball and nasty hook respectively.

 

Greg Peavey-Brewerfan.net player profile

 

Peavey is in a group of pitchers that includes Alderson, Ramirez and Goeddel, among a few others, that is typically ranked below the power trio as I call them. I mention that his breaking ball is a curveball, which it looked like at the Aflac game, although many to most consider it to be a slider. It dove down more than out, which is why I called it a curve. I'll have to watch the game again to crosscheck my notes.

 

Here's the comments I wrote on Neil Ramirez after the Aflac game from the same story as link above from my work for Perfect Game:

 

Neil Ramirez

Ramirez was the first pitcher in the game that caught my eye. Michael Main, Matt Harvey and Robert Stock did a fine job lighting up the radar guns, but Ramirez was the first pitcher that truly pitched. All of his pitches showed good movement, and there is a fair amount of deception to his delivery. Ramirez looks like a throwback player, and with a low-90s fastball and hard breaking ball with his command he should enjoy continued success as he heads into his final year in high school and moves onto either college or the professional ranks.

 

Neil Ramirez-Brewerfan.net player profile

 

Ramirez, as noted in the writeups, already knows how to pitch, and already commands three pitches really well. He was named the top prospect in the Cal Ripken Sr. Collegiate League, where he pitched against college hitters last summer, a tribute to his polish and maturity. While he is labeled as somewhat of a safe pick, he has touched 95 in the past, and has been identified as one of the prep '07 prospects for a few years now.

 

As for Richard Lucas and Tyrell Worthington...

 

Lucas is a player that made some noise this past summer. His bat is starting to leave some very strong impressions on scouts, as is his glove at the hot corner, which has improved dramatically the past year or so. He is short to the ball, and likely will be more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter early in his pro or college career, but given his big, strong frame, many expect more power to come.

 

Lucas plays at Wolfson HS in Jacksonville, the same HS that produced two first round picks in 2004: Billy Butler and Eric Hurley, both of whom are elite prospects for the Royals and Rangers respectively.

 

The negative on Lucas is his overall athleticism. While he's an aggressive player, he isn't particularly fast, and there is some concern that his body and frame will outgrow third base, which will cause for a move to first since many don't believe he has the speed to play the outfield. And with that possibility, the bat comes into question as to whether or not it's good enough for first.

 

Worthington is an incredible athlete, a true five-tool player that can run like the wind. His speed makes him a multi-dimensional threat on the bases and in centerfield, and he draws some pretty high marks for his overall polish despite being such a toolsy player that hasn't focused on baseball primarily.

 

That's because he is also a very talented cornerback in football that recently committed to ECU. I'm watching one player this evening in the Holiday Bowl, DeSean Jackson, whose college football commitment was too good to pass up despite having world-class baseball tools. Worthington will have to continue to show scouts his tools while also making somewhat of a commitment to baseball, whether it be through showcase events or during in-house visits, like Carl Crawford did several years ago.

 

Worthington could be a high pick if one team believes in him enough to make the necessary investment, while Lucas could be a high pick if he continues to mash.

 

Also, CJ, you have any idea why Matt Harvey didnt pitch in the WWBA? He's not on PGCC's list of the best velocities from the tournament.

 

I'm pretty sure Harvey elected not to participated at the event. He originally was supposed to pitch for PG Crosschecker, but didn't show up, which usually points to an advisor or high school coach getting involved at some level. Some players, pitchers more often than hitters, won't attend tournament events such as the WWBA World Championship as their coaches and/or advisors worry about the wear and tear it will put on their arms. As a few at Perfect Game have pointed out, seemingly every year, attending the biggest scouting event can only help a young player, even one of Harvey's caliber, who is already considered one of the top 5-10 prospects available for next June's draft.

 

In other words, I don't think there is an injury concern involved.

[Washie1]

Id personally like to thank you for your fast and decisive reply and the amount of info you gave. Id also like to know what you think of Jake Arrieta-SP, and Brett Krill-OF.

[colbyjack]

Jake Arrieta will likely find himself in my top 30 the next time I update the rankings. Here's his profile:

 

Jake Arrieta-Brewerfan.net player profile

 

Big-bodied righty that should be able to sustain a heavy workload. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he has a pretty good slider and a decent changeup as well. He was a Brewers draft pick a couple of years ago, and someone the Brewers hoped to follow as a DFE before he transferred to TCU. He walked way too many pitching for TUSA last summer, but otherwise most scouts believe his command is a plus (his erratic command was chalked up to fatigue by many, something I don't always buy into).

 

Krill is a 6'4", 200 pound outfield with perfect athletic proportions. He has a very strong frame, wide yet sloped shoulders, a narrow waist and strong limbs that lead many to believe he could be a prototypical power hitter from a corner spot. He has committed to UCLA, and has the tools to rise up to first-round contention with a big spring. He was an Aflac All-American last summer, so scouts are well aware of what he can do.

[Washie1]

So in a head to head who do you think is better Tyrell or Chris Epps ?