Who should the Brewers take in the 1st Round

[colbyjack]

Do you really think that numbers matter as much to scouts as they do to "stuff"? For this reason, even though Arrieta has been inconsistent, he still has the right stuff.

 

No, but the numbers reflect the command, which the scouts are watching. It takes more than just the right stuff, as the pitchers in question also have to be able to show that they can throw their pitches for strikes.

 

Keep in mind, Jack Z. has drafted Arrieta once before, and thought he would be a DFE candidate before he transferred to TCU.

[fewgoodcards]

do you really think arrieta is good enough to go 7th overall? you said you didn't think detwiler was good enough for 7th overall, and personally i think he is better than arrieta. their stuff is similar and detwiler is a lefty, plus arrieta is maxed out physically and detwiler still has a ton of projection left in him. arrieta just doesn't have that elite stuff to go that high and he doesn't really have very good command for a guy that is more of a polish pitcher. i know you guys are tired of taking high school pitchers, but there is going to be a high school guy at 7 that has much better stuff than arrieta. i also think at least one of heyward and vitters will be there also and it will be very hard to pass on one of them to take a guy like arrieta who is at best a #3 starter.

[Past Member]

Why pick Vitters if we just picked Braun?

 

I'm liking Howard, I fear he might be one of these guys that gets priced out by the Brewers (and I will once again state my disgust with the fact that the Brewers shy away from guys like this, looking only at the short team cash flow vs. long term value). As I said previously, things will have to pan out by draft day to happen, but Howard would be my guy over Vitters, maybe even over Arietta.

[fewgoodcards]

Quote:

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Why pick Vitters if we just picked Braun?

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b/c you take the best overall player, and while i think braun will be very good, he hasn't proven anything at the major league level yet. you can always move guys later and you never know who will be on your team in 4 years when vitters will be ready.

[colbyjack]

do you really think arrieta is good enough to go 7th overall?

 

Nope, I was only responding to bradyo's post in which Arrieta was brought up. I'm with you fewgoodcards in that I would prefer Detwiler to Arrieta. Detwiler's present day stuff is already as good as Arrieta's, and he's a lefty as you point out, and he could add velocity as you also pointed out. I'm not positive Detwiler is or isn't worth the 7th overall pick, but if I had to choose between him, Arrieta and a bunch of the bats out there, I would take one of the bats.

 

You're also right in that the prep arms may actually be of good value for the 7th overall pick should Porcello and/or Harvey be available. Even if they were the best players available, I would have to pass on them.

 

And another good point on Vitters. You don't take or not take someone based on who is already in your system. If Vitters offers an impact bat, which I think he does, you take him without blinking if he's the best available player.

[GagneCY03]

The Brewers cant take Vitters; he has to fall to the Dodgers...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Brew Man Dan]

I think that the brewers should pick like this:

 

Wieters

Price

Brackman

 

If none of them are available by the 7th pick, then take the top bat available, and absolutely not a HS pitcher.

 

Interesting note, the brewers have only picked 4 college pitchers in the first round the last 25 years. They turned out to be Dan Plesac, Cal Eldred, Kyle Peterson, and Sheets. So I'm hoping we can get Price or Brackman.

[Past Member]

Neither one of those guys are going to be available when the Brewers picked, besides picking two college pitchers, regardless of their talent, upside, and eta to the majors, would go completely against the Brewers philosophy when it comes to pitchers and first rounders, which is "cheapest and most likely to develop arm problems."

[colbyjack]

I just want to remind people that it is more likely that the Brewers take a player that likely wouldn't go any higher than the 7th overall pick than take a player that falls. With the 7th overall pick in 2002 (Fielder) the 5th overall pick in 2004 (Rogers) and the 5th overall pick in 2005 (Braun), the Brewers took a player that no other team considered taking earlier than that spot.

 

During those drafts Scott Kazmir (2002), Jered Weaver (2004) and Stephen Drew all fell further than expected, or at least fell further than they should have, and the Brewers passed on all three of them (we already know how much this upsets bradyo even today).

 

I'm not bringing that up to cause people to get angry, I bring it up because history tells us that even if Price, Brackman or Wieters falls it is unlikely that the Brewers will take any of them.

 

I don't think there is any way that Price falls. College pitchers such as Weaver, Luke Hochevar and Mike Pelfrey may have fallen a little bit in recent years, but none of them were as "perfect" as a pitching prospect at the same stage as Price is. He's the best college pitching prospect since Mark Prior IMO.

[GagneCY03]

Weaver and Hochevar fell because of Scott Boras. Brackman is a Boras client, so there's a possibility he falls. Price would only fall if he gets injured. I dont see him dropping out of the top 3. Wieters might fall a bit if teams arent sold on him staying behind the plate, though his bat is good enough to justify him being taken in the top 5 as a 1B.

 

I hate to say it, but Michael Main would be right up the Brewers' alley...

[colbyjack]

Wieters has also been rumored to be a Boras client, so he too could drop (I've actually seen Price's name associated with Boras as well).

 

Like I said, I don't see the Brewers touching the guys that fall.

 

Michael Main could very well be the second coming of Mike Jones, which will please no one. Gimme a bat.

[GagneCY03]

Do you not see the Brewers taking the guys that fall due to their association with Boras?

[colbyjack]

Not necessarily the association with Boras, but the general fact that they will cost a lot more than slot value. The Brewers aren't necessarily cheap when it comes to the draft, as they spend more than most teams and always have a couple of guys they spend more on in later rounds (for example, they gave 16th rounder RJ Seidel somewhere in the $400-500K range a year ago, and they dropped about $1.5 million on DFE Manny Parra in 2002), but they do tend to stick to slot value for their first-rounders.

[TooLiveBrew]

Quote:

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It takes more than just the right stuff, as the pitchers in question also have to be able to show that they can throw their pitches for strikes.

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But Jamey Wright had great stuff, and that worked out fine!

[sbrylski]

I've got to start getting familiar with this upcoming draft class. I haven't been following along.

 

From what I know so far, Burgess sounds great. However, I would prefer to see us draft up the middle early.

 

I think I like Joe Savery. I like him because he's a college lefty. Its going to be rather tough for Z to keep his hands off one of those High School righties though.

[colbyjack]

Sam, you probably haven't been following all of the draft threads, but Savery hasn't been pitching much this season, seemingly as Rice HC Wayne Graham takes it easy with him after he builds his arm strength back up after some shoulder issues a year ago. Those shoulder issues prevented him from pitching most of last spring, all of last summer, and in fact, he didn't start pitching again until just after the first of the year.

 

Savery had a very high upside, but he really needs to prove himself this spring to be worthy for the 7th overall pick, and so far, not so good.

[sbrylski]

Sam, you probably haven't been following all of the draft threads.

 

Obviously not. I've pretty much just been reading the profiles in the draft section of this page, and then this thread.

 

Thanks for the info.

[fewgoodcards]

if i was the brewers picking at #7 this is how i would line up my draft board.

 

1. david price

2. matt wieters

3. daniel moskos (if you believe he can start)

4. josh vitters

5. jayson heyward

6. rick porcello

7. matt harvey

 

i know you guys are tired of high school pitchers, but i don't think you can pass on porcello or harvey. some of you may want to move burgess up ahead of them, but i think he is going to have a problem with contact unless he tones that swing down. i can't believe pgcrosschecker doesn't have vitters in their top 10, he is going to be a stud.

[DAS1410]

CJ,

 

Now that we are into April, who would be your Top 5 choices for the Brewers this year @ # 7, based on talent and Jack Z's draft history?

[colbyjack]

That's tough question, as it's hard to figure out Jack Z.

 

The basic premise is tools. He wants something dominant, such as Fielder's bat or Jeffress' fastball. Braun, Weeks and even Krynzel represented five-tool talents. Jones, Rogers and Jeffress all had athletic frames and deliveries, big fastballs and good makeup yet their polish was in question.

 

So, here's my stab:

 

1. Josh Vitters

He probably won't be there at #7, but his bat is the best of anyone available.

 

2. Jason Heyward

Arguably the best all-around positional player available this year.

 

3. Neil Ramirez

Starting to come around this spring, a power arm that mixes polish with an impressive arsenal.

 

4. Michael Burgess

His power could be the biggest and best tool of any prospect available. He has been pressing a little too much recently though.

 

5. Michael Main

Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress...Michael Main fits the mold perfectly (or not so perfectly depending on how you look at it).

 

A couple of names to remember include Blake Beaven (who I didn't include because his delivery is a little stiff) and Nevin Griffith (soaring up draft charts this spring).

 

I didn't include Porcello, Harvey and Bumgarner because I have heard all three will be advised by Scott Boras, an agent the Brewers typically have avoided. Which also means they won't mess with Wieters and Brackman should either of them fall.

 

And Price won't fall, so I didn't even consider him.

 

I didn't intentionally leave any college players out, I just don't think there is a good fit given Jack Z's history. One name that does stand out to me is Todd Frazier of Rutgers, who is big, athletic and full of tools, not to mention he's having a huge season this spring.

[Past Member]

"pgcrosschecker doesn't have vitters in their top 10, he is going to be a stud"

 

Pg crosscheckers is a glorified marketing site for Rawlings. To be part of "Perfect Game" you simply have to have the equipment they use. Although they rate players close to where a credible source, like Baseball America, does, I woundt take too much stock in where they place/rank players. No one in baseball actually uses or looks at that site.

[DAS1410]

Bradyo,

 

Are you serious? Do you have any idea who runs/is responsible for the information that PG provides ... none other than Allan Simpson .... the man who helped make BA what it is today. Plus our very own CJ is a columnist. If those two are not credible sources, then who is?

 

And by the way ... they have Vitters ranked # 7 amongst 2007 HS prospects.

 

01. RH Rick Porcello

02. OF Jayson Heyward

03. RH Matt Harvey

04. LH Madison Bumgarner

05. LH Josh Smoker

06. RH Blake Beavan

07. 3B Josh Vitters

08. RH Neil Ramirez

09. RH Jarrod Parker

10. RH Phillipe Aumont

[fewgoodcards]

they updated that list since i made my post. they had guys like burgess and jackson in it ahead of vitters before and i thought they were crazy. obviously they have corrected their mistake.

[DAS1410]

They seem to be pretty pitching heavy at the top. That is probably the reason, as good pitching is a more scarce commodity.

[colbyjack]

Bradyo, just curious, are you aware that I work for Perfect Game and PG Crosschecker? If so, you're taking a pretty deliberate and blatant shot at me.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinions, so I don't want to sound like a company stooge while challenging your comments, but please explain what prompted you to type what you did about PGCC and Perfect Game, particularly with their relationship with Rawlings (which is a more recent partnership, for what it's worth).

 

We haven't agreed about very much, and you usually don't back up your points with anything of substance, but now you're just sounding like a troll who stirs up crap just for the sake of doing so.

 

As for Vitters ranking, I also didn't agree with where PG had him, as I think he more than proved himself last summer and fall. To each their own, and I do know that PG places a lot of value on big tools, of which Vitters is lacking other than his bat (again, which more than makes up for his other perceived deficiencies).