Who should the Brewers take in the 1st Round

[Brew Man Dan]

IMO, if J.P. Arencibia is still hasn't be picked, the crew should take him. But who do you think the brewers should take? Keeping in mind that the top 3, 4,5 or so will already be picked(so Price, Wieters, etc are not options).

[colbyjack]

Arencibia makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. If he takes another step up next year while proving his worth defensively, he probably is one of the leading candidates for the Brewers pick.

 

Michael Burgess is a perfect fit for the Brewers and their scouting preferences. I'm not sure he lasts until the 7th pick though.

 

I really like Jason Heyward, a taller, lefty slugger with a solid tool-set.

 

Josh Vitters is a great natural hitter.

 

Arencibia's teammate, Julio Borbon, is a prototypical leadoff hitting centerfielder with great speed.

 

Todd Frazier is a toolsy SS with big-time power that projects to play 3B or RF at the next level.

 

Who would I take of this group? Hard to say right now, but these are my faves at this point in time. I haven't developed a true favorite, other than Wieters, but as you noted he's not an option.

[Brew Man Dan]

I take it back, the brewers just might have a chance at Wieters. Now, before you start to laugh, just listen. The first four picks go to Tampa, Kansas City, Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh, all of these clubs have really good catching either in the majors, or in the minors with 2 or 3 really good prospects. So that tell me that they wouldn't pick a catcher(its like Atlanta picking a catcher in the first round, why do it when you have McCann and Saltamacchia). So then the fifth pick has a chance at him, which is Baltimore, and they have Hernandez at catcher in the majors, and a catcher or so in the lower minors. The nationals are the sixth pick, and they have 2 catchers that could be good in the lower minors. I think Wieters will be picked by the brewers, if he is lucky enough to get passed Baltimore and the Nationals.

[GagneCY03]

If the Royals took Wieters, could you imagine their lineup in a few years? Gordon, Butler and Wieters...

 

Burgess seems like a logical choice for the Brewers. Would they take another flamethrowing pitcher like Main or Harvey? Arencibia makes a lot of sense as well.

[lovehate]

My hope will again be for a strong armed college righthander. Although I know history says there is no way the Brewers take one. I'm just starting to feel that this next 3-4 year window can not be missed, and if we can find an Anthony Reyes type guy that could be a piece to the 2008 or 2009 seasons, that's great.

 

That being said, I'm a huge fan of Rogers, Gallardo, Braun, Jeffress and Brewer and hope that at least a couple of them reach that high ceiling.

[colbyjack]

Who do the D-Rays, Royals and Cubs have that would prevent them from drafting Wieters? As Gagne noted, can you imagine the Royals' lineup in a couple of years with Wieters somewhere in the mix with Butler & Gordon? How about the D-Rays lineup with basically a talented young player at every position, either already on the team or on the way up? The Cubs could use just about any big bat at any position other than 1B.

 

And the Royals didn't let the presence of Mark Teahen affect their selection of Alex Gordon, and wisely so. You just don't let a talent like that slip because of someone else. Now, if Wieters is represented by Scott Boras, I could see him slipping, just like Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and a long list of other Boras clients slipped, but not because of existing talent.

 

As for a hard-throwing college righty, that is one area the draft crop for '07 is lacking. After Andrew Brackman, the only college RH-starter I have in my top 30 is Florida's Bryan Augenstein, and the only college RH-starter BA has in their top 30 is Jake Arrieta (a former Brewers draft pick). Obviously, a lot can change between now and next June, but college pitching is not perceived as a strength at this point in time, at least not RH-college pitching.

 

And as Gagne points out, don't automatically eliminate the possiblity of another prep pitcher. Next year's draft is full of them, and one, if not all of Main, Harvey, Porcello and Ramirez should be available at #7. Toss in prep lefty Tanner Robles for kicks.

[pogokat]

I'm all about Jason Heyward...sounds like a very exciting prospect...

[Brew Man Dan]

CJ, maybe Wieters is a longshot, but its much better that some of the top 6 have catching.

 

To answer your question, the D - Rays have

Shawn Riggans, a 26 yr old with a good bat, power and average, with average defense. Here is a link to his stats

 

thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Shawn-Riggans.shtml

 

They also have

 

John Jaso, who is only 23, and has just crushed low minors pitchers.

 

 

The Cubs and Royals players tommorow

[colbyjack]

You answered your own questions...Riggans is 26 years old and yet the D-Rays don't think enough of him to give him a regular chance to be their everyday catcher. Jaso is a 23 year old that hit well in the Cal League.

 

Shawn Riggans and Jason Jaso are not going to stop the D-Rays from drafting Matt Wieters. David Price might.

 

I think you're wasting your time profiling the Cubs and Royals catching prospects tomorrow, especially if they are in the same realm as the D-Rays catching prospects. Again, the only way Wieters falls to the Brewers is if he breaks his leg or is advised by Boras (possibly both need to happen for him to be available at #7).

[Washie1]

Round 1

7 Brewers-J.P. Arencibia, C, Tennessee

 

Round 2

7 Brewers-Hunter Ovens-OF-HS

 

Round 3

7 Brewers-Damon Sublett,2B, Witchita State

[sbrylski]

EDITED quote:

 

Quote:

---

Round 2

7 St. Louis-Hunter Ovens-OF-HS

---

 

Our second rounder goes to St. Louis from the Suppan signing.

[Washie1]

O yes I forgot about that, thank you for correcting me.

[KCBrewerfan34]

With the way starting pitching is costing I would definitely look at the best SP available, if no one warrants at that slot then you go best hitter but pitching is just to darn valuable to pass up. Oakland did well (or got lucky) with Zito, Mulder & Hudson, they all were drafted by the A's. That made for a cheap and dominating staff for a number of years.

 

Look at the possible HR the Brew hit with Gallardo and Inman?

[UWRyan428]

Pre-draft deals can influence if and when a player is drafted as well. If, say, the Royals, after all their "top of the draft" spending, decide to go the way of Billy Butler or Chris Lubanski, and get a quick deal done beforehand, then one or two teams passing could send Wieters to the Brewers' outstretched arms. A lot can change between now and then too. Last year, Andrew Miller fell to the Tigers. This year...

[TooLiveBrew]

Is there any reason to expect that Arencibia will last until the 7th pick? I hope he does, obviously, and would be timed perfectly in regards to both Estrada & Miller.

 

But if he were the top C in the draft, wouldn't he go top 5? So if a team there still had a need (which most organizations do), why would they pass?

 

I just don't feel optimistic about him lasting, and worry the Crew will take another HS arm. I like the philosophy in doing so, but I'm starting to doubt the results.

 

Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, and David Bush all were NCAA pitchers. Suppan and others, obviously, were HS products. I just feel that, with pitching, when you're drafting top-10, you have to ensure that you get a talent that will be able to conribute, not someone who needs a lot of work (Rogers, for example - - not to be harsh on him)

 

It's the 2nd (YoGa) & 3d (Inman) rounds where reaching for a high-ceiling HS arm is a better-calculated risk

[colbyjack]

At this point in time I think Arencibia will be there at #7. Keep in mind that he's not that total package as a catcher, as some believe he might have to move to 1B down the road, as he isn't the bets defensive catcher, although he does have a strong throwing arm.

 

And he's not the top catcher available (Wieters is), and even if he were, that doesn't automatically mean he would be taken that high. Keep in mind, its wise not to draft for need, as that's how you end up taking players like Ken Felder, Antone Williamson and Chad Green.

 

Arencibia is similar to Braun though in that he was very well scouted coming out of high school, decided to attend college, has put up big numbers at college and has their fair share of questions about their defensive abilities. If Arencibia's bat is anywhere near Braun's is as far as impact potential is concerned, taking him would be a no-brainer.

 

And if the Brewers take a prep arm this year I will be very, very surprised, and probably a little disappointed, unless they take a more polished product such as Jack McGeary. Since they don't have a 2nd round pick, I don't think they take a risk like that. If I had to guess, I'm thinking they are targeting an impact bat of some sort this spring (Arencibia, Michael Burgess, Jason Heyward, Beau Mills, Josh Vitters).

[UWRyan428]

First, did anyone think Andrew Miller would be languishing around our pick last year? The year prior, did anyone see Luke Hochevar or Mike Pelfrey slipping? Prior to that year, what about Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver? Top shelf talent is not always picked. That said, there seem to be some decent-sized pocketbooks in front of us. As a side note, I thought I'd post an article on the top young catchers, and they make mention of Matt Wieters, even though he has yet to play a professional game.

Top Catchers

The most disturbing thing about this article, however, is the complete lack of mention of a certain Grand Salome, as I would take the REAL Pudgito over half those young crackers.

[colbyjack]

First, did anyone think Andrew Miller would be languishing around our pick last year? The year prior, did anyone see Luke Hochevar or Mike Pelfrey slipping? Prior to that year, what about Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver?

 

Of course anything can and will happen. However, with the exception of Miller, the Brewers had the opportunity to draft each of those other players and didn't. Under Jack Z. the Brewers have pretty much stuck to the slot value of their first-round pick, and prefer to take players that will sign relatively quick. So, even if a Wieters or Brackman falls, for whatever reason, I won't for a second believe that either one of them would be the Brewers pick.

 

If you want to point to the team's lack of a 2nd round pick, they also didn't have a 2nd round pick when they took Krynzel in 2001 (letting Xavier Nady slide on by), and again in 2005 when they took Braun (letting Pelfrey and Hochevar slide on by).

 

So, I'll believe the Brewers will take a player that has fallen dramatically when I see it. Until then, I'm 99.9% certain it won't happen.

[UWRyan428]

While I see your point, I would actually use the 2005 draft as a reason why we would take Wieters if he were to fall, as Ryan Braun was the epitome of a "need" pick. But I can assure you that he won't get past #2, as the Cubs have long been long on adding big names in the draft (Samardzja, Prior).

[Past Member]

When it comes to the draft, I am a firm believer that a team (the Brewers) should always draft best available, granted that its up the middle (P, C, 2B, SS, CF). That having been said I feel that, whoever represents the player, or what kind of bonus the player is seeking should not be a consideration. I feel that over the past 5 years or so the Brewers have only made 2 good first round picsk (Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun). You're going to give any high level first round pick a decent bonus, imagine if the Brewers had picked Jared Weaver in the 2004 draft....Weaver would have been earning his bigger bonus in the majors, as opposed to Mark Rogers who still got his million dollar contract, but may now never see a major league roster. I feel the samw way about the '02 draft when the Brewers drafted a one tool, overweight 1B for signability, when they could have taken Scott Kazmir and payed a little bit more for him, have him make it to the show 2 years prior and become one of the most dominant young lefties in the game.

 

That having been said, if the prospect rankings stay the same when the draft comes around this year, I think the guy for the Brewers is SS Justin Jackson. I love the words "5 tool" you can never go wrong with 5 tool. And some may say "the Brewers need a catcher/catching prospect, why draft a SS when we have JJ Hardy as the future SS of the team"? I would respond by saying that if Jackson develops into what he can be, and Hardy turns out well and avoids injury, when its time to make that decision, you trade one of the two for a C who is already in the major leagues.

[colbyjack]

That's a solid assessment on Jackson, and I agree that the presence of guys like Hall (even though he's an OF now), Hardy and anyone else should not alter the Brewers decision come draft day.

 

And while you can argue that the Brewers should be willing to pay big bucks for premium talent that falls (even though they won't), I can't see the argument against Prince Fielder. You may prefer Scott Kazmir, but that doesn't make the selection of Fielder a bad pick. Actually, I think most would agree that the selection was quite an astute one, despite many to most of us disagreeing with it at the time.

 

And they didn't take Fielder because of signability. They took him because they felt he was the best all around hitter available, and its hard to argue with that logic. If you would have seen his performance at the pre-draft workout back in '02, you would have taken him too.

 

Plus, he has two tools, hitting for average and power, and despite his size, he actually has pretty good wheels, and his throwing arm isn't bad either. He's really only lacking one tool (defense), and he's has come a long way in that department.

 

I always support drafting that focuses on the bat first, which is why Braun was taken as well. You can't teach the ability to hit and hit for power.

[UWRyan428]

It's looking more and more likely that we could be in a position to snatch Matt Wieters. Good times.

[colbyjack]

What makes you say that?

[colbyjack]

So far this spring, I still think the pick will be a bat. Of course saying that the team will do something it hasn't done with Jack Z. as scouting director and take a college arm, but the college arms just haven't been that impressive this year collectively.

 

Price of course has been a stud, as he has been his entire college career. Savery could still get up there if he continues to stretch out his arm, but Brackman has been up and down, Arrieta has been inconsistent, Doolittle probably isn't a first-rounder based on his arm, Schmidt's velocity is in the 87-90 range and Augenstein has been touched up. Detwiler is good, but I'm not sure he's good enough to go 7th overall, and I don't see Jack Z. taking a college closer.

 

I think Auburn's Josh Donaldson may have replaced Tennessee's J.P. Arencibia as a legitimate catching candidate to go 7th overall, while both Corey Brown and Beau Mills have hit the ball all over the place so far.

 

And that doesn't even factor in the preps, of which the news is just now starting to leak out. Josh Vitters would be an awesome pick if he fell to the 7th overall pick. I'm a big Jason Heyward fan, and Michael Burgess' power would be hard to pass up. PGCC reported that Kentrail Davis is expected to miss a few weeks due to an injury.

[Past Member]

This of course would have to play itself out more, but I am looking at Arrieta or Josh Hayward as the best available when the Brewers pick, and as you mentioned, and much to Jack Z's detriment, Arrieta wont be the pick.

 

Do you really think that numbers matter as much to scouts as they do to "stuff"? For this reason, even though Arrieta has been inconsistent, he still has the right stuff.

 

We'll see how things all fall into place come draft day, but I'd take Arrieta first, Hawyard second.