Capuano: One year wonder?

[brewcrew00]

Ultimately, there are a few things that shouldn't go over looked with regard to Capuano's pitching performances. As was discussed the other day, ERA can be a poor judge of a pitchers performance or effectiveness, however I think a few of these things should be looked at....

 

Since 07/01/06....

 

Team's record when Cappy starts: 12-20

Cappy's personal W/L: 7-15

 

And finally,

 

In his past 32 starts, which is dating back to July 1 of last season, Cappy has lasted past the 6th inning just 9 times.

 

It should be noted the reason I chose July 1 as a start date, and didn't include his first half from last year, is we all know he's a fast starter, and the arguments have been made on numbers since last all-star break. I think he's had his chances, change has to be made or we'll simply be accepting below average performance.

[Ennder]

He most certainly is walking too many and that is going to be doom for any pitcher, especially one who only has mediocre stuff to begin with.

 

I mean at this point I'd still take Capuano and suppan over Marquis and whomever the cubs 5th starter is this week, but over the past month or so that is mostly certainly a huge advantage to the Cubs. Pitching is just all over the place.

[TheCrew07]

Quote:

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I don't think you and others are appreciating the significance of that distinction. Until you do, you'll not only continuously come to the erroneous conclusion that our arguments are absurd, you may even feel "sad" for us poor saps that are still willing to accept sub-par performances from players on a winning team

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I was going to let this go but alas I unable too after rereading this thread. I appreciate the distinction, it's not so vast and wonderous that a lamer like myself isn't capable of understanding it. I'm just not the one jumping down other poster's throats over nothing. If they use wins and losses, or ERA, or whatever over a small sample isn't it just another way of saying that pitcher has been bad? Who cares what distinction they use?

 

You routinely cross the line to smug by trying to force sabermetrics on people, just let them be. It doesn't matter if they don't agree, or don't see it or your way, they root for the same team. I'm sorry, but you dont' even consider the alternative point of view, you continually blast away and make poor assumptions or interpetations of my posts. You seem to be so sure that your way is the right way... As long as it works for you that's all that should matter.

 

Who said anything about accepting a poor performance? The original arguement I responded was a post about ERA, for which the poster got blasted that ERA is a worthless stat and so on. The point I tried to make in my last post and you obviously missed was that ultimately the stats don't matter, winning and losing is what counts. I don't care if Sheets or Cappy or anyone else only gives up 1 earned run and the Brewers still lose, whether it's a regular season game but especially if it's a playoff game. Yes I understand the season is long, and I don't get too bent out of shape, but giving any game away drives me nuts. Any way you slice Cappy's season, it's been way below expectations, it's not about being "right" it's about being able to present an observation without getting stomped.

 

Most likely the difference between us is that I've been in locker rooms and around teams August through June since I was old enough to walk and talk. My experiences have led me to conclude that sports are more of an art than science. My father is a hall of fame coach, his friends are hall of fame coaches, I've had the benefit of being able to sit around and to listen to some of best coaches in the state talk sports, players, beliefs, and so on. It's an opportunity that I've been truly grateful for, and has helped me tremendously. Ultimately I believe what goes in the player's head is vastly more important than his talent.

 

You have a different approach, a much more analytical approach, you seem to want things to be black and white. In my opinion, the "noise" that you like to dismiss, it what makes sports great, it's what makes them unpredictable, it's what makes them special. It doesn't matter how many holes are in a stat, there are plenty of holes in every metric in used baseball as well. Everything from OPS to ERA+ to FIP to VORP and so on has holes in it... There is no all incompassing way to evaluate a player's talent, it's simply not possible.

 

I honestly grow weary of these debates, they don't add anything to site. Lately people seem to be getting so caught up on fragments of posts that they miss the message. I don't expect anyone to view sports the same way that I do, it's unique to my personality and my experiences. I would like to think however that we could at least make an effort to consider an alternative point of view and the message without being completely condescending.

 

The original thought was if Cappy was a one year wonder based on last year's season and his performance this season. I didn't think it was a fair statement as I found him to be overrated last year but this year he's definately pitching way below my expectations. There is plenty of season left, but this gets into the question that Geno posed earlier in the Yo/Bush/Vargas thread, how long do you ride an unperforming horse? When is the right time to the make the move? How many games can you give away before you've significantly hurt your playoff asperations?

 

Those are the questions we should be debating, not what stat or metric is proper for the sample size.

[Ennder]

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The original thought was if Cappy was a one year wonder based on last year's season and his performance this season. I didn't think it was a fair statement as I found him to be overrated last year but this year he's definately pitching way below my expectations. There is plenty of season left, but this gets into the question that Geno posed earlier in the Yo/Bush/Vargas thread, how long do you ride an unperforming horse? When is the right time to the make the move? How many games can you give away before you've significantly hurt your playoff asperations?

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There really is no answer to this question is the problem, unless you can predict the future there is no way to know. Maybe Capuano has 'lost it' and he will suck all year long, maybe he's just had some bad luck and will be fine, maybe he has 'lost it' for now and will 'get it' back next week and be fine. There really is no way to know, you have to assume he'll revert back to his 3 year averages in my opinion and his 3 year averages say he's a decent starter.

[rluzinski]

isn't it just another way of saying that pitcher has been bad?

 

"Has been bad bad" sometimes but does not always mean, "will continue to be bad". That's the distinction I've been trying to drive home in this thread and I don't think I've done a very good job at explaining it.

 

If we want construct a best guess at Cappy's future expected performance, we have to look not just at the results of Cappy's recent performance (record and ERA) but also at how those results occurred exactly. The fact that his recent struggles has coincided with an increased walk rate is alarming, for instance. In contrast, Bush's sub par ERA and win/loss record was not alarming to me, because it was not caused by anything that was expected to persist (BABIP, LOB%). Some people don't get past just the raw results, so they miss that distinction.

 

Who said anything about accepting a poor performance?

 

ELCABALLO45 did, not you. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

You routinely cross the line to smug by trying to force sabermetrics on people,

 

The concept of sample size, statistical noise and regression to the mean are principles that dictate all the baseball stats we all look at on a daily basis. If continuously pointing that fact out when it comes up constitutes "forcing" it, guilty as charged.

 

Most likely the difference between us is that I've been in locker rooms and around teams August through June since I was old enough to walk and talk.

 

This seems to blow up everyone's crude stereotype of what a guy who uses math is all about but in high school I was on the math team AND I played football. Crazy, huh? While I may not have spent my entire life in a locker room, I am familiar enough with it's pungent aroma to appreciate what you are trying to get at, but...

 

Ultimately I believe what goes in the player's head is vastly more important than his talent.

 

In high school? Sure. I got by with mediocre physical talent because I understood the techniques associated with my position and I was a hard worker. I knew better than to think that recipe would translate into success at the college level, however. At the pro level? Please. High school sports has almost no resemblance to professional sports.

 

how long do you ride an unperforming horse? When is the right time to the make the move? How many games can you give away before you've significantly hurt your playoff asperations?...Those are the questions we should be debating, not what stat or metric is proper for the sample size.

 

That's exactly what we are debating, you just don't seem to realize it.

[brewerphandog]

do we honestly need stats to prove Cappy has been bad? That is hilarious.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

Yes we do because earlier in the year Bush wasn't bad but everyone was up in arms over him because he was unlucky and they were clinging to ERA as their stat of choice.

[igor67]

So I felt compelled to measure the true weakness of our team so far this year: the rotation. Which is quite paradoxical considering everyone thought the lineup was kind of sketchy and the rotation would be very good. Well my tools were a little bit crude, but I think they give a solid estimate to the size of the damage Briefly I used some respected preseason predictions (the PECOTA 50% line) and then compared ERAs that were projected vs. actual ERAs this year for our 5 starters. Sheets, Suppan, and Vargas have as a group done just about exactly what was projected of them by PECOTA. Sheets has done a little worse and Vargas has been a little better. Bush and Capuano though have done much worse than their projections.

For Bush his projected ERA was 4.22 compared to his 4.86. If you look at his projected components like HR, hits, walks, and Ks. You see he has actually out performed his K rate while his hit rate is way above what it should be with the other components in line.

With Cappy his ERA was projected at 4.37 and is currently 5.16 Again his K rate is ahead of what was projected, but his walk rate is almost double! His hit rate is a little higher too.

If you total up all the ERA differences and then scale for the innings pitched for the entire rotation I come up with a figure of 14.3 runs too many given up. Which gives an estimated win impact of 2 wins.

[Diskono]

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Cappy sucked tonight, Villy sucked tonight.

 

I know you hate Capuano, but don't let that cloud the fact that Villanueva has been horrific tonight.

 

And as he just allows his THIRD HR in the last inning plus, Villy has actually been much, much worse.

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The Rockies' pitching was also bad. I'm willing to give these guys a break for not being as sharp as they should be after a long break.

 

Capuano's numbers seem pretty similar to his 2004 and 2005 seasons, aside from allowing a greater number of hits. While he hasn't been as unlucky as Dave Bush was earlier in the season, I do think luck plays a part of it. I'm not sure if his walk rates will ever drop as low as they were in 2006 again, but if his BABIP drops back down to more normal levels, he'll remain a solid middle-rotation guy.

 

And if he can do whatever it was he did last year to cut his walk rate in half, we have ourselves a borderline all-star again.

[recte44]

Here's a crazy idea- why don't we let Parra take his rotation spot and move Cappy to the pen as the #1 lefty, use Shouse as a LOOGY only?

 

It wouldn't hurt to try. Also, did I miss something? I thought Sheets was starting last night.

[dadofandrew]

While Capuano has been struggling of late, especially his control, he still has a 5ish ERA, which dozens of SP's have, and many are solid contributors.

[Diskono]

I just noticed something kind of weird - his strikeout rate is the highest it has been since 2004, which was his worst season of his career. Could he be "pressing", or trying to hard to get strikeouts? I'm reluctant to consider a higher strikeout rate to be bad thing, but maybe that's just not the type of pitcher he is. Last season (and arguably his best), his strikeout rate was at its lowest since his rookie year with Arizona.

[rluzinski]

do we honestly need stats to prove Cappy has been bad? That is hilarious.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Is that really all you've gotten out of this thread?

[nikegolf6]

Has anyone pointed out that, though he is "walking WAY too many" his walk rate is very similar to his 2005, 3.99 ERA season? In fact, his stats are almost mirror images.

[Ennder]

He has 23 BB's in his last 43 IP or 4.8 per 9 IP. He is walking too many guys lately. He also has a 7.74 ERA over that stretch and a .954 OPS against. Since coming back from the injury he has 8 BB's in 11.2 IP with a 10.03 ERA and 1.056 OPS against. I'm guessing that he isn't fully recovered though there isn't sure fire proof of that.

[jazzytrav]

I'm just throwing this out there because I'm really not sure, but is there still really any significance to having a left-handed starter or two in the rotation? I understand their importance in getting left-handed hitters out of the bullpen, but with a starter having to through the entire lineup hopefully several times, it seems like it's really not that important.

 

I only ask because if Cappy gets traded or gets sent to the pen, we would have a 5 man right-handed rotation (whether it's Villy or Gallardo). I honestly don't know if that means anything. Yost just seems to be the kind of manager that needs to have that lefty arm in his rotation no matter what, if only for a change of pace.

[sbrylski]

I'm just throwing this out there because I'm really not sure, but is there still really any significance to having a left-handed starter or two in the rotation?

 

No, not really. You might say it keeps hitters "off-balance" or whatever if they face a RHP one day then a LHP the next, but I think its highly, highly, unlikely having a mix is going to win your team games.

[jazzytrav]

That's kinda what I thought. Thanks http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif