Capuano: One year wonder?

[1992casey]

I'd submit that we're allowed to be happy or unhappy after we've been objective. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

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Utlimately winning and losing is what matters, so in a small sample what's wrong with someone pointing out he's winless in his last * appearances, or his ERA is * over his last *? Because you don't like the use of the stat is somehow makes it less true? Somehow a fact becomes fiction?

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Again, are you trying to judge:

 

A. A players' true ability based the results of his performances.

 

B. The results of his performances.

 

I don't think you and others are appreciating the significance of that distinction. Until you do, you'll not only continuously come to the erroneous conclusion that our arguments are absurd, you may even feel "sad" for us poor saps that are still willing to accept sub-par performances from players on a winning team.

 

A person can be both unhappy with a player's current performance and optimistic about his possible future performance.

[sbrylski]

Geez, I've missed out on about the past three stat debates! (Not that this one is over yet)

 

Basically, I'm agreeing with Ennder and Rluz. A pitcher can give up a lot over runs over a small number of starts despite doing all the things he can do to prevent runs well. Its not 100% the pitchers fault that runs score while he's on the mound, luck and defense do play a part.

 

Also, when saying stuff like "he's no longer our #2" or "he should go to the pen soon", you should be using statistics/logic that predict future success well. ERA does not. K's, BB's, and FB% do.

[rluzinski]

For the record, I'm not even saying Capuano is perfectly fine and there is nothing to worry about. The fact that he has been recently injured needs to be considered, among other things.

[TooLiveBrew]

But to compensate, he did add the sexy beard, so....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

EDIT: And, to answer the thread question directly and concisely, No!

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I was considered outrageous for making the claim that the Brewers were a better team as a result of Cappy being on the DL and I got hammered for it. My claim doesn't sound so idiotic now. My thread was even locked. Well the bottom line is that Cappy isn't getting the job done. He's not pitching like he's a 4 ERA pitcher so get him out of the rotation and get Villy in there because he actually has good stuff.

[Brian the Automator]

[ My thread was even locked. ]

 

Was it locked because your opinion that Capuano wasn't a good pitcher or was it locked for another reason?

[logan82]

I believe it was locked because he wrote every other post on the thread.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm really not sure, Brian.

[PeaveyFury]

Villy gave up as many runs in fewer innings than Cappy.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I'm really not sure, Brian. ]

 

Well then I think leading the reader to think that it was locked because the moderators didn't agree with your opinion seems a bit disingenuous, doesn't it?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Villy came in with 2 runners on base in an impossible situation and got out of it with only 1 run. If he starts this game, we are definietly in better shape.

[PeaveyFury]

If he starts this game, we are definietly in better shape.

 

Based on the 4 ER he allowed himself in fewer innings than Capuano?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yes because when you start a game it is a whole different mentality. Villanueava was born and bread as a starter, not a reliever. He needs to get in the rotation fast.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Yes because when you start a game it is a whole different mentality. Villanueava was born and bread as a starter, not a reliever. ]

 

So he can pitch when the pressure's on, but not when the pressure's off?

 

I would agree with you if he was getting tired as the innings went on because he was used to quantity instead of length, but he went out there with a fresh start and got rocked.

[PeaveyFury]

Cappy sucked tonight, Villy sucked tonight.

 

I know you hate Capuano, but don't let that cloud the fact that Villanueva has been horrific tonight.

 

And as he just allows his THIRD HR in the last inning plus, Villy has actually been much, much worse.

[sgtcluels]

Villys looking as bad or worse then cappy. Maybe it's not the pitching as much as the small strike zone coupled with good hitters.

 

DFA Rockies.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yeah this umpiring is horrible. Villy had 2 guys struck out that ended up getting RBI in the next few pitches. This is rediculous. They really need to look into eliminating some of these arrogant umpires who think their zone is better than the strike zone represented by the rules.

[brewerphandog]

If a hitter goes 0-30 some of us would dig deep and find out how many pitches he faced per at bat and determine the slump is not as great as it seems. I had a stats professor who said that baseball was both a statisticians dream and nightmare as it is a game that is driven by quantification, yet at the same time there is room for qualitative analysis. If a guy simply looks bad, sometimes it is just that simple.

[TheMCG]

It's hard for me to say that Villy was "far, far worse" than Cappy tonight. Both were awful. Cappy isn't a major league pitcher at this point and something needs to be done about the space he's wasting in our starting rotation.

[rluzinski]

Yes because when you start a game it is a whole different mentality.

 

Starters generally do better when they pitch in relief. Maybe some starters might not be suited for it but Villy has been pretty darn good in that capacity so far.

 

If a guy simply looks bad, sometimes it is just that simple.

 

Well, of course not. No analysis can answer anything with 100% certainly, whether it's based on a scouting approach or an analytical one. We are all just trying to come up with our best guess.

 

That said, I'm not looking for some way to justify an "everything is OK" conclusion. I just look at the facts and come up with an opinion. Sometimes it's right and sometimes it's wrong.

[jason21nl]

could cappy be still hurting and not fully healthy? Just wondering because right now he just isn't right. He seems to be walking and falling behind hitters more often than he has in the past.

[strawbossisevil]

I think part of what Ender was pointing to in this thread is the fact that, sometimes over a small sample a pitcher will get hammered despite pitching well.

 

Sometimes you can have your pitches working well, you can be spotting them well, and the hitters just get lucky and you end up losing.

 

I'm not so sure that applies to Capuano in this case, I haven't gotten the chance to see any of his outings lately. But I do agree that moving him to the bullpen is probably a bad idea. He probably should have gone on a few rehab starts to get fine tuned following his injury.

 

Also it's pretty clear, just like Bush's start to the season, that things will not continue to be this bad for Capuano. We have a large sample of innings that says Capuano is a pitcher who usually has a low to mid 4s ERA. Going forward, I think that is what we can expect from him for the rest of the season.

 

It is somewhat funny, how we entered the season with the belief that our starting pitching would be our greatest strength, and it has instead been our biggest weakness to this point. Adding Villy and Gallardo should help solve that later in the season though, maybe. What's scary right now, is that while our pitching is suffering, the Cubs has been much much better and has been the main reason they have gotten this close to us.

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If a hitter goes 0-30 some of us would dig deep and find out how many pitches he faced per at bat and determine the slump is not as great as it seems.

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Or many of us would point out that baseball is a game of streaks and slumps. That same hitter might go 18 for his next 30, and it would all balance out. That's baseball. The same goes with pitchers. Baseball is a streaky game, the fact which some seem to grasp more readily than others.

[brewmann04]

Cappy has seemed to have good starts to the Season and Horrible Finishes ,this needs to be looked into.

[LouisEly]

Bottom line - you can't have this type of performance consistently when you are in a pennant race. Nine straight losses when Cappy starts (yes, two of them aren't his fault, but that means seven of them are). If he is hurt, admit it, because going out there when you are 75% is only going to hurt the team. Put Cappy back on the DL, start Yo, and bring up Balfour; otherwise, figure out what is wrong, and figure it out quickly.