Capuano: One year wonder?

[xisxisxis]

What a wonderfull thread!

 

Endder:

Quote:

---

Using ERA to judge a pitcher over a months time is completely useless.

---

 

Kat:

Quote:

---

Using ERA for the past month is hardly useless, but it shouldn't be the end all be all stat used to judge how a pitcher is performing.

---

 

Ennder:

Quote:

---

Yes it is completely useless, you can pitch great for a month and have a 7 ERA, you can pitch horribly for a month and have a 2 ERA.

---

 

JoeHova:

Quote:

---

I'd love for you to show me one example of either of those.

---

 

Ennder:

Quote:

---

Chuck James - May 2nd - June 7th - 3.02 ERA.

 

Pretty good pitcher right? Of course he walked 4.5 per 9 in that stretch and had a .760 OPS against so certainly that ERA doesn't tell the story.

 

Jose Contreras May 16th-June 24th - 5.33 ERA

 

Pretty ugly stretch right? Of course he walked fewer than James, K'd almost the same, gave up a lower OPS against, only allowed 2 HR's.

 

Dave Bush May 3rd-June 10th - 5.36 ERA

 

Elite BB level, good K level, again an OPS against in the .750 range but ugly results in the ERA.

---

 

I'm glad Endder cleared that one up for me. I was unaware that MLB had changed their rules and made the penultimate stats BB , K and OPS against determine game outcome instead of runs scored and runs allowed. I always liked just skimming the scoreboard to see what's going on in a game, but I can see now how a pitcher could give up a bunch of runs and still be pitching an elite game as long as he doesn't walk anyone and has a sufficient number of K's. Once again another visitor to brewerfan.net learned something here that no other baseball related site knows about. Keep pushing those frontiers....

 

 

But the real coup de grace was my vote for post of the year:

 

brewerphandog:

Quote:

---

excuse the sarcasm...but what I've gleaned from this board lately:

1. Weeks is fine and will be a stud.

2. Capuano is fine and is a stud

3. Suppan has been a horse

4. But Yost makes bad decisions and its his fault our team loses despite walking guys who couldn't get a hit if you tied the outfielders to the ground and let him place it anywhere in between them while putting a fence around the infield to prevent their interference in the matter.

 

I've also gleaned that all stats are useless unless they meet the specified approval of about five of us who can verify the authenticity of the statistic, and whether that said statistic meets veriability requirements, such as whether said statistic agrees with viewpoint of said statistical interpreter.

---

 

Priceless....great job brewerphandog!

[rluzinski]

I'm glad Endder cleared that one up for me. I was unaware that MLB had changed their rules and made the penultimate stats BB , K and OPS against determine game outcome instead of runs scored and runs allowed.

 

He's saying ERA is useless for projecting future performance, especially over half a season. While I wouldn't go that far (hard to find a completely useless metric), what you wrote above is just way off base. Of course, I'm probably not telling you anything you don't already know. It's a lot more entertaining to simply take snippets of people's posts and distort their message. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[xisxisxis]

He's saying ERA is useless for projecting future performance, especially over half a season.

 

I'm glad that's what you think he's saying, but Ennder stated emphatically that "Using ERA to judge a pitcher over a months time is completely useless. " Don't see any future performance in that statement/post or in this one "Yes it is completely useless, you can pitch great for a month and have a 7 ERA, you can pitch horribly for a month and have a 2 ERA." I really am perplexed at the argument that a month of 7 ERA could possibly be a great month. I'll agree that a month of 7 ERA does nothing for predicting future performance, but it's been stated as a fact and I've yet to see any fact that supports that conclusion.

 

 

It's a lot more entertaining to simply take snippets of people's posts and distort their message.

 

Well I do come to brewerfan.net for entertainment. Unfortunately, for a long time i've been told what to think about "facts" more than I've been entertained around here. It's fine when it's simply pointed out, but when it's a constant lecture from a people who think they are intellectually superior because they know how to use a spreadsheet then it gets on my tit.

[1992casey]

---

(hard to find a completely useless metric)

---

Just about every stat is good for trivia purposes. Birthday batting averages come to mind. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

My guess is that ERA is about as "good" as batting average (not awful, but not optimum). How far off is that assumption?

 

Here's what I tend to do when looking at a pitcher:

1. Glance at the ERA to get started.

2. Check out BBs, Ks, and HR. HRs need to be given some 'breathing room' since there's no park adjustment. Hardball Times K/G and BB/G is probably optimum, but K/9 and BB/9 should suffice. I'll also look for a 2:1 K/BB ratio.

3. I may look up FIP to see how it matches up to my assumptions. If I feel conscientious, I may dig out stats that serve a similar purpose.

4. I may decide to look up BABIP and LOB%, but chances are that I'll wait for Russ, Ennder, or Sam to post them. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JJHardy7]

I've never been sold on Cappy. I think he can be a good pitcher, but if he was a free agent after this year I'd be scared to sign him to a lucrative long term deal (which I'm guessing he would get given the fact he's a lefty).

[rluzinski]

I really am perplexed at the argument that a month of 7 ERA could possibly be a great month.

 

We really are talking about two things here. What level of talent Capuano has pitched with recently and what was the in-game result of that talent. The results are easy; we should just see how many runs a team has scored against Capuano (why even used earned runs, if we aren't concerned with anything but the results on the field?) and whether the Brewers won. Those are the concrete results and they can't be disputed.

 

The much harder question is that whole "true talent" thing and that's where ERA can be misleading.

 

My guess is that ERA is about as "good" as batting average (not awful, but not optimum). How far off is that assumption?

 

ERA is just so volatile over the short term. Two walks and bomb over 6 IP can be 3 earned runs; 8 hits and 4 walks over 6 can be 0 earned runs. A hit is always a hit, so situation has little effect on BA.

[Ennder]

Quote:

---

I really am perplexed at the argument that a month of 7 ERA could possibly be a great month

---

 

I said a pitcher can pitch great and have an ERA of 7 over a month and they can. Pitcher throws 30 IP, gives up 31 H's, K's 30, gives up 8 BB's. Thats a pretty darn good month of pitching but he put at least 39 runners on base, if 23 of those 39 runners put on score he has had a terrible ERA while pitching fine. Sure its not all that likely that 23 of 39 runners score but I'm sure at some point in baseball someone has had a run just like that.

 

A pitcher can pitch well and still give up a lot of runs, there is a difference there that if you try to see I'm sure you will... or maybe you'll just come back with sarcastic nonsense again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Well, all this statistical discussion is brilliant and all, but it doesn't really explain why Suppan, Capuano, and Vargas haven't been able to pitch with a lead for the past two months. My statistical mind has deduced that the reason for their inability to maintain leads is that they've been giving up more runs than the Brewers have been scoring for them. Feel free to WHIP and K/BB my generalization to death, but I'm sticking to it!

 

I really don't care how the runs they give up score - aside from the obvious fielding errors that can lead to unearned runs, every run that goes on a pitcher's ERA is from a batter that the pitcher was responsible for retiring. The good pitchers seem to be able to minimize the number of big innings they give up, unearned runs or not, by making quality pitches in tough situations. BA/BIP, WHIP, K/BB ratios, who cares!!! Baseball is a game that's played, not simulated on a computer - there are so many variables within each game, much less within each season, that can have huge effects on the only statistical outcome that matters...wins and losses.

 

Statistics are a great tool to evaluate and compare what's happened. They can be manipulated and arranged by different sample sizes and categories to make just about any argument that can be made. The problem with stats is that they can't predict what will happen - they may give you an expectation, but they can't guarantee it.

 

To sum up my point, I'm pretty sure the conversation between Yost and Cappy didn't happen like this...

 

Yost "Cappy, I'm a bit concerned that your most recent BB to Mr. Jimenez is an indicator that your WHIP may be trending toward the median you created during your last 8 starts, and not continuing on the median pace when considering your entire career."

 

Cappy "Don't worry Skip, my career K/BB ratio indicates that I will strike out the next two batters this inning, and all will be well"

 

Yost "So, exactly what percentage of your numbers resulted from pitching in 100 degree heat after spending the entirety of the previous inning on base, and walking the leadoff man with a .045 BA with a 1 run lead in the 6th?"

 

Cappy "Gee Skip, I don't think I've ever experienced this situation in my career before"

 

Yost "Hmmm....well shucks, just throw your 7th straight changeup this inning to Zimmerman and let's see what happens"

 

-----------------------

[1992casey]

---

aside from the obvious fielding errors that can lead to unearned runs, every run that goes on a pitcher's ERA is from a batter that the pitcher was responsible for retiring

---

I guess we could discuss the fact that some statheads prefer RA (run average, all unearned runs included) to ERA. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

---

?maybe you'll just come back with sarcastic nonsense again

---

Please use another way to invite a response. This one crosses the 'baiting' line.

[jason21nl]

I know this has nothing to do with cappy, but I didn't know where to put it right now. Has people always been this stat heavy? I mean, until i came to this site I never heard of half the stats that are mentioned. Were all these stats thrown around 10, 20 years ago? I'm asking because truly I don't know.

 

 

now i need to say something about cappy. he is what he is. isn't that what everyone says about soup? He doesn't have a fastball that he can throw by guys so he has to rely on control. when he doesn't have it and isn't locating he is going to get rocked. I think he is a hard worker and will figure something out. It was just a year ago when people were saying that cappy was our ace. I would say he is a 3 or 4 pitcher.

[watertown28]

Before I read this whole thing I would like to say this:

 

Cappy was on base that whole time in that heat. He had no tiem to rest. Due to it being so hot and then turning around and throwing the next inning after siting in the heat did not help him any.

 

Pitchers get tired faster when its that hot outside ...give this guy a break. We had the BP all available to bail him out if it was needed. I think cappy will be fine the second half.... if not i would be very disapointed

[Ennder]

Quote:

---

Please use another way to invite a response. This one crosses the 'baiting' line

---

 

Half of the posts made towards me in this thread cross the baiting line and I'm tired of it. Not saying anything useful in a post except sarcasm directed at another poster is not funny, its just rude and obnoxious.

 

Quote:

---

Were all these stats thrown around 10, 20 years ago? I'm asking because truly I don't know.

---

 

Tools like K/G, BB/G have been in use for over 20 years. Things like BABIP are newer. The idea that baseball is extremely random over a small sample of stats is very old though, its just more fans realize it now.

[rluzinski]

I really don't care how the runs they give up score - aside from the obvious fielding errors that can lead to unearned runs

 

I just can't see how a fan can accept the use of the "earned runs" adjustment as logical and fair, yet blast others for trying to make their own adjustments. It's a noble effort to try and account for below average defense when assessing a pitcher's performance but the way earned runs is calculated is terribly subjective and illogical, IMO.

 

We should either look at just "runs scored" or conced that defense plays a huge part of a pitcher's success and failure and look for a better way to adjust for it. I can't see anything really thinking it's perfect the way it is.

 

The good pitchers seem to be able to minimize the number of big innings they give up, unearned runs or not, by making quality pitches in tough situations.

 

They have their hicups too, which no one seems to notice after the fact.

[gregmag]

Statistics are a great tool to evaluate and compare what's happened. They can be manipulated and arranged by different sample sizes and categories to make just about any argument that can be made. The problem with stats is that they can't predict what will happen - they may give you an expectation, but they can't guarantee it.

 

I think all of that except the second sentence is correct and useful. (The second sentence proves too much. You can say the same thing about words as numbers. Yes, anyone can use any content to make any point; but most of us are savvy enough to sort out at least a good percentage of the more specious points.)

 

But as to the third sentence, isn't what you call expectation (what I would call projection) the best information we can hope for? Very little information allows for "guaranteed" accurate predictions about the future. So isn't your point about the uses and limits of stats really the most ringing endorsement of stats that one could offer?

 

Greg.

[davego]

Just throwing this out there, but after a season (say 180.IP) and you looked at ERA and WHIP, do you think you could get a pretty clear view of a guy?

 

With a pullpen guy, couldn't you just go with runners scored (with some lookback at fielding % per IP)?

 

You guys are smarter then me, so let me in on your wisdom.

[1992casey]

There's some volatility with WHIP, too, in that it doesn't cover extra base hits. But I should have put it in my list above as one of the first stats I look at. It's another stat that needs 'breathing room', though.

 

Generally, with all players, you need a three year sample to accurately gauge him. If you see a significant positive change in a pitcher's BBs, Ks, or HRs over the course of one season, however, there's certainly reason for optimism.

[brettac1]

Over 180 IP things tend to correct themselves to a degree, but it doesn't change the fact that ERA and WHIP are effected very heavily by the defense behind the pitcher. There's no be all, end all number for pitchers just like there isn't one with hitters. An ERA will tell you past results, but results don't always reflect performance.

 

People are kind of arguing past each other in this thread. One part of the discussion is centered on ERA not being a good predictor of a pitcher's performance (especially when you are looking at something like 30 IP) - I agree with that. The other side is saying is that while that may be true, Capuano has still been terrible for a month - which I also would agree with.

 

I think Cappy was just tired yesterday. If you look at the fact that it was 100+ degrees on the field, and he had to stand on the bases for so long, and couple that with it being his second start after a DL stint that included no rehab starts.

[ELCABALLO45]

All i know is that if ANYONE is happy with Cappy this year..... well....Its pretty sad that our team is winning but our fans still have the same attitude of a losing team.

[rluzinski]

Quote:

---

All i know is that if ANYONE is happy with Cappy this year..... well....Its pretty sad that our team is winning but our fans still have the same attitude of a losing team.

---

 

What's "sad" is when fans can't get beyond emotional rhetoric when others are attempting to objectively assess a player's performance. I want to know whether I should be concerned about Capuano going forward, not whether I can justify being satisfied or angry about what he's done so far.

 

I'm really sick of the phrase, "It's really sad that when fans think..." Especially since I always feel compelled to retort with, "What's sad is...." No more sad's, please.

[recte44]

Gotta give him a couple more starts off his DL stint to judge. These are the same people saying Sheets was washed up, I'm sure.

[TheCrew07]

Quote:

---

What's "sad" is when fans can't get beyond emotional rhetoric when others are attempting to objectively assess a player's performance. I want to know whether I should be concerned about Capuano going forward, not whether I can justify being satisfied or angry about what he's done so far.

---

 

What's sad is those of us that continually talk down to others because what metric use or choose to believe isn't correct.

 

We aren't talking about evaluating someone's career or season, we're discussing half a season, and more specifically a player's last 2 months. Wins and Losses arguably is the worst way to judge a pitcher, but in the playoffs does it matter if the starting pitcher gives up 8 runs but the team still wins? Does it matter next Tuesday if the starter gives up 7 runs and the Brewers win 12 to 11? Utlimately winning and losing is what matters, so in a small sample what's wrong with someone pointing out he's winless in his last * appearances, or his ERA is * over his last *? Because you don't like the use of the stat is somehow makes it less true? Somehow a fact becomes fiction?

 

What you're really saying is that you don't like the stat so it's not applicable at any time, and I don't believe that to be true. Even when discussing Sheets it's unnacceptable point out that he continues to hurt himself by not even being able to get a bunt down because sabemetrically a sacrifice has little value so it doesn't mattter.

 

I knew where this would go, so I went right to his secondary numbers, which are trending negatively... It doesn't matter which stat you use, Cappy hasn't been pitching well. Why wouldn't someone look at his history of a worse second half than the first and be concerned, regardless of what excuse there was for his performance? People didn't cherry pick stats to prove their point, the numbers are what they are.

[Ennder]

Quote:

---

but in the playoffs does it matter if the starting pitcher gives up 8 runs but the team still wins?

---

 

No, but if a hitter goes 0 for 30 in the playoffs and your team wins he didn't play well, just like a SP gives up 8 runs he probably didn't pitch well.

 

The only talking down anyone has done in this thread are the sarcastic responses of certain posters who decided to try to insult someone instead of posting something useful. The get away with it because its 'cute' but its mostly just rude. /shrug.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Capuano will come back to the form that made him an all-star. He just got off the DL and has had a few rough starts. And yes I know he struggled a bit before then. But what about that game against the Braves when he gave up like 1 or 2 runs pitched great and no scoring for him? Lets wait a few more starts before we throw Capuano off the bridge.

[Ennder]

He had three poor games followed by two strong ones and then got hurt. I think its pretty hard to draw any conclusions about him at this point. My guess is he does about his career average from this point on assuming he's fully healthy.

[lukevan]

It seems some of us are saying that Cappy has been bad this last stretch, while the others are saying that Cappy has been bad this last stretch but it doesn't mean he won't be good/average again based on secondary stats and career history.

 

Brettac's right, we've basically been arguing around each other this entire thread. Some are trying to predict future success/failure for Capuano while others are trying to explain his bad ERA for the last month or two.

 

Whether you like statistics or not, they are there, and some are more important than others. If you don't care to know why that is, then it's usually best to believe the people who do know instead of trashing the stats and the people who are using them.