3b/1b of the future

[gregmag]

At the risk of saying something painfully obvious, pitching is not categorically the most important part of the game. Offense is half the game; pitching and defense are the other half.

 

You can absolutely win with a team weighted toward offense. But your offense (or pitching, if you're trying to develop that way) can only be so good, which means your pitching (or offense) can only get so bad.

 

Yeah, the Brewers leaned too heavily on offense in their last attempt to build a winner. Their failure isn't a universal truth; it's a data point. Taking the particulars of your last failure too seriously is a sure ticket to your next failure.

 

The only absolute in baseball, IMHO, is run differential. You can maximize run differential a bunch of different ways.

 

As for the topic of this thread, the Brewers seem to have learned something valuable about position players since their last developmental burst: load up on players at skill positions with offensive potential to move down the defensive spectrum. Sss and cfs who can outhit their positions are golden. We've also been drafting younger guys the past few years, which makes the immediate lack of power bats a lesser concern (see Brantley, Michael). Trying to jam square pegs into round holes is indeed foolish. Trying to fit round pegs into square holes makes a lot more sense.

 

The position that worries me most is catcher. We have zilch at c, and that's not a problem we can fix with anyone we have.

[WV Brew]

The position that worries me most is catcher. We have zilch at c, and that's not a problem we can fix with anyone we have.

 

There is Carlos Leal who had a pretty good year, at least with the bat.

[reillymcshane]

The position that worries me most is catcher. We have zilch at c, and that's not a problem we can fix with anyone we have.

 

There is Carlos Leal who had a pretty good year, at least with the bat.

 

Leal is a great story, but I'm not getting carried away like he's anything special. He's got only 300 ABs in low A ball thus far - a league he's older than the average player by 1.6 years. He's already 24, he should be doing well.

 

Leal is hitting well this year - no denying that. But he was a 34th round draft pick for a reason. He doesn't have much power. I don't know anything about his defense - so maybe others can speak to that facet of his game.

 

I'll start looking at him seriously when he has some more playing time at advanced levels, and I hear reports from people I trust with regards to his defense.

 

A guy like Adam Weisenburger could contribute - but he profiles strictly as a back up player. Good defense, takes a lot of walks, but won't hit much. Like gregmag says, we don't have much at catcher. If Lucroy is dealt or leaves when his contract ends in 2017, there's a real black hole. Maybe someone steps up, such as Leal, but I'm skeptical that him or anyone else in our system is anything more than a backup.

[LouisEly]

With the sheer number of OFs in the system, the 1B of the future is likely Braun. Braun is athletic enough that he can still be a good to decent corner OF for several more years. But with the exception of possibly Santana or Roache, he's the best fit at 1B. The youth and athleticism of an OF of Phillips, Santana, Reed, Taylor, etc., would be better defensively than having Braun in the OF.

 

As for 3B, other than one of Gatewood/Lara, I don't think that person is in the organization. I'd like to see the Brewers move some of their OF prospects for a 3B prospect. They still have Lucroy, Lind, Garza, and K-Rod as trading chips to acquire that 3B and/or C prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

They really need to try someone there to see what they have or else they have to find a 3rd baseman FA. It be nice to have a long term solution in the system.

The free agent 3B are sad.

 

From mlbtraderumors.com:

 

Mike Aviles (35)

Gordon Beckham (29)

David Freese (33)

Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Casey McGehee (32)

Aramis Ramirez (38)

Juan Uribe (37)

 

Uribe is an okay hitter, but he's declining, plus he's getting old and fat. Freese is probably the only 'everyday' player in the group. He's hit just over .700 OPS over the past two years, so he's not anything special.

 

If you were a contending club, and you had a huge black hole at 3B, you could probably live with someone like Freese. But guys like him aren't going to be with us long term. Like you say, we need a long term solution.

 

At this point, I probably just roll with Dominguez or someone like him (maybe try some minor league free agents or swing a trade for someone). Perez's bat won't play at 3B, and Rogers glove won't either. Not that I think Dominguez is the long term solution, but he was highly regarded, has shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, and just turned 26 (today!). There's some room in there for him to improve - maybe get things to click. But I honestly don't think it's going to happen. It's not like he's raking at AAA (sub- .700 OPS). Still, he's probably the best option at this time.

 

We can live with an experiment in 2016 - if Dominguez or whomever flops, no big deal. We aren't going to be that good so now is the time to risk it.

 

What evidence is there that Perez' bat won't play at 3B? That's a pretty definitive statement for a guy who's just 24. Sure he has just 1 HR, but if memory serves at least 3 of his 13 doubles were banged off the wall and one of his singles was as well. Speaking of doubles, 13 in 160 plate appearances as a Brewer? That extrapolates to 52 in a full season of 640 PA. I personally can't understand Counsell's insistence on sitting him against RHP in favor of a journeyman utility guy like Herrera. Perez had better splits vs. RHP at AAA last year: .291/.340/.410 than he did against LHP: .274/.311/.384. Why is he being platooned other than Counsell having a soft spot for career utility guys like he was?

[FVBrewerFan]

I'll add my vote for Perez at 3B next year. Maybe Rogers can play over there (at least part time) if he really works on his defense between now and April.

 

I absolutely do not want a FA 3B, even if there were some better names on that list.

[Jenkins5]

I'll take Dominquez, defensive is great, bat offers more than Perez. Both don't walk, Dominquez, has more pop that will play nice in Miller park. Perez May edge him by a little for average.

 

It appears and well deserved that Cooper is now bypassing Ramirez in the pecking order at 1st base. I'd have no problem with Cooper being our 1st baseman in near future. He just reminds me of Overbay do much. To put up the numbers he did at BC for a 1st baseman is unreal, shows just how good of an approach and hitter he is.

[reillymcshane]

What evidence is there that Perez' bat won't play at 3B? That's a pretty definitive statement for a guy who's just 24. Sure he has just 1 HR, but if memory serves at least 3 of his 13 doubles were banged off the wall and one of his singles was as well. Speaking of doubles, 13 in 160 plate appearances as a Brewer? That extrapolates to 52 in a full season of 640 PA. I personally can't understand Counsell's insistence on sitting him against RHP in favor of a journeyman utility guy like Herrera. Perez had better splits vs. RHP at AAA last year: .291/.340/.410 than he did against LHP: .274/.311/.384. Why is he being platooned other than Counsell having a soft spot for career utility guys like he was?

 

Perez has a .583 OPS in 2015 on 187 ABs (154 with the Brewers). Are his 13 doubles nice? Sure. Extrapolate them to 640 plate appearances (based only on his Brewer stats) and you get 52 doubles. Nice. Let's extrapolate his 3 walks if we are doing that. Or his 1 HR. We have a guy who - again, only using his Milwaukee stats - would hit .273 with a .287 OBP and an OPS of .676. He would have 52 doubles, 4 HRs, 12 walks and 116 strikeouts.

 

And you're dismissing the rest of his time in the majors this year. Why should we do that? Just because it was with Detroit and played sporadically? We shouldn't just pretend it didn't happen. That gives us 588 plate appearances (extrapolating 194 plate appearances this year), 39 doubles, 3 HR, 12 walks and 120 strikeouts. Add in the .583 OPS.

 

And let's look at his splits. He's got a .486 OPS in 2015 vs right handers - .749 vs lefties (118 and 69 ABs, respectively).

 

If you want to look at the minor leagues, he had a .735 OPS last year at AAA. He's never hit more than 8 HR in a season in the minors. His OPS at AA for his career is .741.

 

some people seem to want to see a lot more in players based upon some random criteria, ignoring the rest of the evidence at hand. That's fine, but personally, I don't see anything more than a utility guy in Perez. That's using the numbers and the eyes. He's an impatient batter, offers little power and at 24, he probably is what he is. Sure he could improve - maybe even a lot - but I highly doubt he'll produce enough to play 3B regularly.

 

My opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

That may be true, but what's the downside of having him play 3B in 2016. If we go back to the original question, who is the 3B of the future? The answer to that is nobody at the A+ level or above. A 3B needs to develop from the low minors, get a young 3B via trade, or wait a couple years and pick up a FA.

[reillymcshane]

That may be true, but what's the downside of having him play 3B in 2016. If we go back to the original question, who is the 3B of the future? The answer to that is nobody at the A+ level or above. A 3B needs to develop from the low minors, get a young 3B via trade, or wait a couple years and pick up a FA.

You are correct - there's little downside to playing him at 3B next year. That's assuming we don't get anyone else. But we are going to be bad next season - so the club should feel free to experiment.

 

In fact, playing Perez full time next year allows you to judge him as a third baseman, but also as a second baseman. Barring an injury or other bad thing, come 2017 Arcia is going to be our SS. Who plays 2B? Segura, Perez, Scooter, Sardinas and Rivera could all hold the spot - each offering something a little different. But if you let Perez play 3B next year, and he manages a .700 OPS, he could be a legit starter at the keystone in the coming years.

 

The other real option is Dominguez, but that's not really enticing. Sub-.700 OPS at AAA this year isn't real enticing. But the guy supposedly plays good defense - and he did hit 20some HRs a few years ago - so maybe there's some hope for the guy. Otherwise, the club will probably go shopping for someone - either an upper level minor leaguer or something like that. No matter what, you just roll the dice. If it works, great. If it doesn't, you move on.

[FVBrewerFan]

Agreed. If they want to give Dominguez a chance instead/along with Perez I would be ok with that. The only other real option is Rogers, although I just don't think his glove can play there no matter how much he works on it. It's not impossible though. I just have this feeling that if Rogers got regular ABs he could be a serviceable 3B and/or 1B- at least to fill the gap for 2-3 years. He's never had that chance at the MLB level, too bad there's no DH.

[billymac]

I think the 1B job can be filled internally with the amount of OF's we have coming through the system. A question I have is, does anyone know where information is regarding Rule 5 eligible players for this year? I know most teams have roster decisions to make before the winter meetings to solidify this. If the Brewers make the moves they should this offseason, does that open up a number of 40 and 25 man roster spots and also open up the opportunity to take a flier on a Rule 5 3B from another team?

 

Not sure if its been discussed already, but maybe something the team might be interested in.

[Outlander]

Rule 5 protection for the Brewers is discussed at viewtopic.php?f=64&t=32999

 

Too early to really tell who might be available as every team will add prospects after the season. I do agree though that the Brewers will have to think about keeping an open spot on the 40 man as they do not look like a contender in 2016. However, that also leaves them open to losing a prospect as there are a number of players they won't be able to protect.