3b/1b of the future

[SRB]

I don't consider those minor league HR totals above-average for a first baseman.

Just curious, what do you consider to be above-average totals for a minor league first base prospect?

 

Perhaps I am being too imprecise by saying "above-average" - I don't know if Roache's totals are objectively above-average compared to other minor league 1B. But if you are a 1B and have subpar OBP skills (Roache has a career .315 career OBP in the minors, career best of .327 this season), I think you need 30-35+ HR power at a minimum. A lot of the top-100 1B prospects over the last few years did not have huge power, but they were putting up .380+ OBPs.

[LouisEly]

Funny, I was just looking at A.J. Reed. He was drafted the pick after Jake Gatewood. No pressure there.

 

Speaking of A.J. Reed, Houston is 6th in the majors in blown saves this season. Gregerson is tied for the lowest save % and has the 3rd highest ERA of any of the 25 pitchers with at least 19 saves. And Houston is loaded with 3B and 1B prospects (I know that their minor league teams play in hitter-friendly parks/leagues).

 

K-Rod to Houston makes too much sense. I'm going to say that K-Rod won't bring back A.J. Reed, but would Houston move whichever of Colin Moran or J.D. Davis they like the least for him? If not, what would the Brewers need to kick in? Houston also has Singleton, A.J. Reed, and Chase McDonald coming up at 1B. Singleton has a very good walk rate at AAA this year and is still only 23.

[splitterpfj]

LE, I've thought about K-Rod to Houston quite a bit, because you're right, it looks pretty obvious.

 

I do like AJ Reed, and the 3Bs we've already discussed. If Houston has interest, and if K-Rod gets through waivers, this looks like a pretty easy match, depending on who Houston is willing to give.

[JohnBriggs12]

Some of the talent in the farm system can and likely will be used in deals to fill in spots on the major league roster. It's completely unrealistic to think that a lineup of all rookies and 2nd year players save Braun will be on the field in 2017 or that such a lineup could compete.

[Crash2303]

it does make a lot of sense, and I am curious why a bigger deal with Houston for a 3b/1b was not done at the time of the Carlos Gomez deal- throwing in some combination of K-Rod/Cotts/Lind- I can only assume that Hou did not want to part ways with too many of their young prospects, because it makes too much sense from the Brewers stand point to not have. either way- some previous discussion on the matter is listed in greater detail in the transactions/rumors forum here for those interested:

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=33168

[TheCrew07]

Some of the talent in the farm system can and likely will be used in deals to fill in spots on the major league roster. It's completely unrealistic to think that a lineup of all rookies and 2nd year players save Braun will be on the field in 2017 or that such a lineup could compete.

 

Right because the Cubs haven't been competitive with a plethora of young position players? Or the Brewers didn't break the losing streak in 2005 with prospects and basically garbage?

 

Again I say:

 

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them."

-Albert Einstein

 

We've already been through this cycle once with very little tangible result, exactly 1 playoff series win, why should we expect to do any better following the same pattern this time? Somehow by applying the same concepts more "vigorously" we're going to get a different result?

 

This is as simple as I can put this:

Do you want to win as many games as possible in a given calendar year? or... Do you want to want to establish a dynasty and be competitive year in and year out?

 

The Brewers and most of baseball does the former, I'm in the camp that thinks teams should operate for the latter.

 

If you want to win as many as game possible each year like the Brewers have done then you will get extreme peaks and valleys in the performance because players will get old and the talent well will dry up, forcing the team to start the cycle again.

 

If you want to place your franchise firmly in the upper echelon of the sport then you have be willing to consistently cycle players off the roster around age 30, have a robust talent base for quality depth, and constantly give young players a chance to succeed. The Brewers will not be able to build or maintain the core of their team through FA, it's not a realistic goal.

 

Furthermore baseball is about impact pitching and until the Brewers can field a rotation for multiple seasons in a row with legitimate pitching at the top, none of the rest really matters. We've already been down the road of the averagish rotation with a good to great offense and didn't win anything meaningful. You can win games in the regular season but in the post season what happens when Kershaw and Bumgarner shut down your offense? Pitching > hitting and we need to be able to match-up from a pitching perspective first, the pitcher is the one player in the game who exerts the most impact on the outcome, he has the ball in his hand at the start of every single possible play. That's the spot we need to gain an advantage at, that's the match-up we need to win, then the rest takes care of itself.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cubs prove my point. They went out and got veterans to fill spots. They traded two minor leaguers for Miguel Montero because they had a need there. They traded for Carlos Fowler to fill CF, also a need spot for them. Rizzo is their best hitter and he's no rookie. He's in his 5th year, and was already in the big leagues when he was acquired. Coghlan, who's hitting 3rd in their lineup was a FA signing. Outside of Schwarber over the last month, the other Cub rookie/2nd year guys have been disappointing actually. Rizzo's arby years were bought out with a 7 year deal in what looks like now to be a very team friendly deal but he's the key to their offense.

 

2/5ths of their rotation are veteran free agents one of which would be out of Brewers budget. Hendricks was picked up in a deal for Dempster true, but Arrietta was already in the big leagues when they got him from Baltimore in 2013.

 

No team does it all with rookies and 2nd year guys which is the only point my previous post was making. Rizzo is the Cubs best hitter and he's in his 5th season. Brewers success with their earlier crop was because of two guys, Fielder and Braun, that gave the Brewers the best 3-4 hitting combo in the game for a few seasons. Both were drafted, not traded for. The other guys were interchangeable and just along for the ride. Astutely, Melvin turned Hardy into Gomez, but once Fielder left, that still wasn't enough.

 

As to your point about pitching, the Brewers appear to have 3 young guys in Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta that are the cornerstones of a fine rotation, all of whom are home grown and did not require trading anyone off to get. Nelson has both the demeanor and the stuff to be an ace which he has been over the last month to 6 weeks. Wasting their peak seasons by surrounding them with a lineup of scrubs while they wait on some prospects is problematic too.

 

I don't see a Rizzo on the Brewer's current roster, namely a cornerstone who's a few years ahead of the bumper crop who leads them. Braun's too long in the tooth, and Lucroy is only signed for two more years. They could lock up the 3 pitchers and assuming all stay healthy and productive for 5-7 years, that'd would be great. But we all know what happens with pitchers.

[ewitkows]

Davis could be that guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

Davis could be that guy.

 

Was just going to edit my post and mention that. Yes Davis fits the age and experience level very well. Whether he's a cornerstone player ability wise is at least debatable though. Even Gennett if this turns out to be his "off year" fits the profile age/experience wise.

 

Davis is probably not the "sure thing" Rizzo was, and committing to him does create an outfield log jam. But maybe to fill a need at 3B, C or 1B, dangling a Taylor or Reed or Raoche as part of a deal is what they'll need to do and that brings me back to my original point that not all prospects help you by playing for you.

[FVBrewerFan]

Again, I don't think they need to rely exclusively on the system for position players. I couldn't agree more with TheCrew, it starts with a legit rotation. Once it's clear they have that, you can look at the line-up at that point and see if it makes sense to bring in a FA to fill a position or two. They should have a lot more financial flexibility by then.

 

I've always said it depends on Peralta/Nelson. (And now you can add Jungmann.) If they can prove over a longer time frame they are a legit 1,2,3 starters you can begin building the team to compete immediately at that point. #4,#5 can easily be filled with a lot of guys in the system. Same with the bullpen. If Nelson keeps this up, and Peralta can get back to 2014 form (which isn't unrealistic) you're halfway home. Then you can always find a Lind type for a reasonable deal if you need to plug a hole or two.

[danzig6767]

Furthermore baseball is about impact pitching and until the Brewers can field a rotation for multiple seasons in a row with legitimate pitching at the top, none of the rest really matters. We've already been down the road of the averagish rotation with a good to great offense and didn't win anything meaningful. You can win games in the regular season but in the post season what happens when Kershaw and Bumgarner shut down your offense? Pitching > hitting and we need to be able to match-up from a pitching perspective first, the pitcher is the one player in the game who exerts the most impact on the outcome, he has the ball in his hand at the start of every single possible play. That's the spot we need to gain an advantage at, that's the match-up we need to win, then the rest takes care of itself.

 

I don't buy that it''s required anymore that teams need dominant starting pitching to advance in the playoffs.

 

I 2011, the year you hated the Brewers team which got to the NLCS, the Cardinals won the title largely on the backs of their offense and bullpen throughout the playoffs. Their starting pitching often struggled a lot.

 

Last year the Royals also rode a great bullpen, defense, and speed to the World Series in the playoffs. Their starting pitching wasn't anything special. It took Bumgarner having an all-time special run to keep KC from winning a title. Hell, old man Jake Peavy was the Giants game two starter.

 

The 2013 Red Sox finished middle of the pack in pitching. Yea Lester was really good in the playoffs, but outside of him, they got their ring mostly via offense and their bullpen. Lackey did have a nice start or two, but he wasn't exactly a stud ace.

 

Kershaw is a lock HOF stud, but whether it's just been fluke or bad luck, he's yet to be the shut down ace in the playoffs as he's been in the regular season. Maybe this year will be different for him and i hope it is so he doesn't get some choker label.

 

Baseball has changed over the last 5-10 years, especially in how teams use their starters and bullpens. Some teams get into the playoffs with just a solid rotation, but have a great bullpen and are able to advance by getting just enough from their starters to keep the game close for a bevy of sub-3 ERA bullpen arms to enter the game. With off days in the playoffs and managers no longer having to worry as much about over using their best relievers, it's often worse for an offense to get the starter out of the game.

 

FWIW, i'm not saying teams wouldn't prefer having say Kershaw and Greinke as the Dodgers do for playoff series, but it's been shown of late that so long as a team has at least one really productive starter, another who is decent, and a great bullpen, they can get to the World Series. You get in these 5 and 7 game series, especially the 5 game series, things can get so random as to why one team wins and loses. A great bullpen can win a series. Some timely hits, even by unexpected guys. A top notch pen has become near as important or as important to playoff success as good starters are.

[Boomer5]

Furthermore baseball is about impact pitching and until the Brewers can field a rotation for multiple seasons in a row with legitimate pitching at the top, none of the rest really matters. We've already been down the road of the averagish rotation with a good to great offense and didn't win anything meaningful. You can win games in the regular season but in the post season what happens when Kershaw and Bumgarner shut down your offense? Pitching > hitting and we need to be able to match-up from a pitching perspective first, the pitcher is the one player in the game who exerts the most impact on the outcome, he has the ball in his hand at the start of every single possible play. That's the spot we need to gain an advantage at, that's the match-up we need to win, then the rest takes care of itself.

 

I don't buy that it''s required anymore that teams need dominant starting pitching to advance in the playoffs.

 

I 2011, the year you hated the Brewers team which got to the NLCS, the Cardinals won the title largely on the backs of their offense and bullpen throughout the playoffs. Their starting pitching often struggled a lot.

 

Last year the Royals also rode a great bullpen, defense, and speed to the World Series in the playoffs. Their starting pitching wasn't anything special. It took Bumgarner having an all-time special run to keep KC from winning a title. Hell, old man Jake Peavy was the Giants game two starter.

 

The 2013 Red Sox finished middle of the pack in pitching. Yea Lester was really good in the playoffs, but outside of him, they got their ring mostly via offense and their bullpen. Lackey did have a nice start or two, but he wasn't exactly a stud ace.

 

Kershaw is a lock HOF stud, but whether it's just been fluke or bad luck, he's yet to be the shut down ace in the playoffs as he's been in the regular season. Maybe this year will be different for him and i hope it is so he doesn't get some choker label.

 

Baseball has changed over the last 5-10 years, especially in how teams use their starters and bullpens. Some teams get into the playoffs with just a solid rotation, but have a great bullpen and are able to advance by getting just enough from their starters to keep the game close for a bevy of sub-3 ERA bullpen arms to enter the game. With off days in the playoffs and managers no longer having to worry as much about over using their best relievers, it's often worse for an offense to get the starter out of the game.

 

FWIW, i'm not saying teams wouldn't prefer having say Kershaw and Greinke as the Dodgers do for playoff series, but it's been shown of late that so long as a team has at least one really productive starter, another who is decent, and a great bullpen, they can get to the World Series. You get in these 5 and 7 game series, especially the 5 game series, things can get so random as to why one team wins and loses. A great bullpen can win a series. Some timely hits, even by unexpected guys. A top notch pen has become near as important or as important to playoff success as good starters are.

 

Agreed. We would all love a 90's Braves rotation but that is unlikely.

 

In many ways, the stud Ace we all grew to crave has gone the way of the 350 carry RB in football. With 13 man staffs and 6 inning starting pitchers, there just isnt room on a payroll for a Smotz/Maddux/Glavine anymore even IF you could find them. The Royals won because they realized its way cheaper, and easier, to develop a best in class bullpen then a best in class rotation.

 

That doesnt mean you give up looking for them, but it does mean you need to modify the dreams of a monster rotation.

[FVBrewerFan]

True, the Royals had rotation similar to the Brewers last year, in that basically the same 5 guys pitched all year, none were dominant but pretty consistent. You can win a lot of games that way, even make the playoffs, but it's really hard to win it all without an ace or two. There's always exceptions to everything, but this is still the most likely path to a WS title.

[reillymcshane]

True, the Royals had rotation similar to the Brewers last year, in that basically the same 5 guys pitched all year, none were dominant but pretty consistent. You can win a lot of games that way, even make the playoffs, but it's really hard to win it all without an ace or two. There's always exceptions to everything, but this is still the most likely path to a WS title.

The Royals this year are interesting as they have used mediocre starters to go with an awesome defense and bullpen.

[Boomer5]

True, the Royals had rotation similar to the Brewers last year, in that basically the same 5 guys pitched all year, none were dominant but pretty consistent. You can win a lot of games that way, even make the playoffs, but it's really hard to win it all without an ace or two. There's always exceptions to everything, but this is still the most likely path to a WS title.

The Royals this year are interesting as they have used mediocre starters to go with an awesome defense and bullpen.

 

Interesting. That's the cheap way to build a team.

 

Hmmmmmm.

[brewmann04]

But they did Cueto so that gives them a legit starter

[jerichoholicninja]

The Royals are a good team but it also helps that their division is pretty bad right now and the Tigers are starting to turn into the Phillies circa 2012. The next couple years look pretty bleak for everyone but the Royals. Maybe Cleveland can turn it around but the Royals should be winning that division for at least the next 3 years.

[brewmann04]

Brewers still play flawed fundamental baseball. That need to be addressed as well as the way the lineup is put together. Would like the brewers to go with their youngsters in the rotation and find one legit #1

[TheCrew07]

All you've done is explain why legit minor league 1B prospects are so rare.

Right, that's all.

 

I don't buy that it''s required anymore that teams need dominant starting pitching to advance in the playoffs.

Putting up zeros is what matters, but how many teams have that kind of bullpen? Furthermore I won't be convinced that building a bullpen over a rotation is a solid strategy. That's something which happens more by accident or in the case of the Cardinals a couple of years ago they didn't want to pay with prospects to acquire a starter so they went out and got relievers instead. It's a strategy that works in spots, but isn't something to build around or rely on year in and year out. I'll never make any case based on outliers or the best possible case scenario, impact starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball and the Brewers haven't had it.

 

Cubs prove my point. They went out and got veterans to fill spots. They traded two minor leaguers for Miguel Montero because they had a need there. They traded for Carlos Fowler to fill CF, also a need spot for them. Rizzo is their best hitter and he's no rookie.

Braun isn't a rookie either, and the Cubs didn't trade anything of value to acquire anybody yet. The whole world expects the Cubs to build their rotation through FA. The point is that they are winning with prospects, haven't had to give up any of their top prospects to plug holes, still have more coming, and have the resources to spend well beyond the Brewer's means. When talking organization building all organizations are not on equal footing. The young Brewers had veteran fill in players as well, and they didn't spend anything of value to acquire that relative garbage either.

[danzig6767]

 

I don't buy that it''s required anymore that teams need dominant starting pitching to advance in the playoffs.

Putting up zeros is what matters, but how many teams have that kind of bullpen? Furthermore I won't be convinced that building a bullpen over a rotation is a solid strategy. That's something which happens more by accident or in the case of the Cardinals a couple of years ago they didn't want to pay with prospects to acquire a starter so they went out and got relievers instead. It's a strategy that works in spots, but isn't something to build around or rely on year in and year out. I'll never make any case based on outliers or the best possible case scenario, impact starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball and the Brewers haven't had it.

 

I wasn't saying at all that i don't want the Brewers to develop high quality young pitching through the minors in hopes of having a really good rotation. Only a complete idiot wouldn't care about wanting to see that happen.

 

My only point was to you saying in that post earlier that teams need great starting pitching to advance far in the playoffs when there are multiple examples in recent history which showed otherwise. Teams have made it to the World Series in a wide variety of fashions and great starting pitching was far from being the most common reason why. The Cardinals and Red Sox used offense and their bullpens as their biggest keys. The Royals defense, speed, timely hits, and a great pen.

 

Come the playoffs and managers only using three starters a lot of the time, they can and do use their bullpens in ways teams in the past often just didn't do. Go look at many good teams today who have 3-4-5 guys in the bullpen who have sub-3 ERA and good to great WHIP, K/9, K/BB numbers. What the Cardinals did in 2011, Boston in 2013, and the Royals last year with their bullpens, it's no longer the aberration and closer to the norm in the playoffs where the good teams tend have a very good bullpen and thus managers today are quicker to turn to that pen.

 

It's so much more of a specialized game today and even more so in the playoffs than the regular season. In the regular season, you need a good rotation more to make it through the grind of 162 games. Hard to make the playoffs without at least a really solid rotation. Can't burn out a bullpen either. Come the playoffs today though, a really good bullpen with 8-9 guys available to a thinking manager, it can cover for less than great starting pitching. Hell, for all of the hype about Toronto landing Tulo/Price, upgrades to their pen has been just as important in their 10 game winning streak and maybe if they get to the World Series.

[danzig6767]

True, the Royals had rotation similar to the Brewers last year, in that basically the same 5 guys pitched all year, none were dominant but pretty consistent. You can win a lot of games that way, even make the playoffs, but it's really hard to win it all without an ace or two. There's always exceptions to everything, but this is still the most likely path to a WS title.

The Royals this year are interesting as they have used mediocre starters to go with an awesome defense and bullpen.

Very true, but getting Cueto was important. While teams have been advancing far in the playoffs without a great rotation, i do think playoff teams generally need at least one really reliable starter and they were lacking that.

[WV Brew]

I'd like to put out Nathan Orf again at 3B. All the guy does is get on base with occasional extra base power but not a home run hitter. Was .388 OBP at Brevard and is now .380 at Biloxi this year. How many Brewers at any level are performing that well?

 

He has played 62 games at 3rd with a RF/9 of 2.32 and 2 errors in 146 chances. I get that RF/9 (putouts and assists per 9 innings) is not the best stat but it's what we have in the Minors.

 

The equivalent for Taylor Brennan, more of a traditional 3B type, is 2.70 with 24 errors in 297 chances at 3rd.

Perez with the Brewers: 2.30 and 4 in 69 chances.

Herrera: 2.89 with 5 errors in 70 chances.

 

So his fielding looks like a sure handed guy probably with limited range. Still in the ballpark of current contenders though. If the Brewers can't get a 3B by trade, Orf is a real possibility, IMO.

[brewmann04]

They really need to try someone there to see what they have or else they have to find a 3rd baseman FA. It be nice to have a long term solution in the system.

[reillymcshane]

They really need to try someone there to see what they have or else they have to find a 3rd baseman FA. It be nice to have a long term solution in the system.

The free agent 3B are sad.

 

From mlbtraderumors.com:

 

Mike Aviles (35)

Gordon Beckham (29)

David Freese (33)

Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Casey McGehee (32)

Aramis Ramirez (38)

Juan Uribe (37)

 

Uribe is an okay hitter, but he's declining, plus he's getting old and fat. Freese is probably the only 'everyday' player in the group. He's hit just over .700 OPS over the past two years, so he's not anything special.

 

If you were a contending club, and you had a huge black hole at 3B, you could probably live with someone like Freese. But guys like him aren't going to be with us long term. Like you say, we need a long term solution.

 

At this point, I probably just roll with Dominguez or someone like him (maybe try some minor league free agents or swing a trade for someone). Perez's bat won't play at 3B, and Rogers glove won't either. Not that I think Dominguez is the long term solution, but he was highly regarded, has shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, and just turned 26 (today!). There's some room in there for him to improve - maybe get things to click. But I honestly don't think it's going to happen. It's not like he's raking at AAA (sub- .700 OPS). Still, he's probably the best option at this time.

 

We can live with an experiment in 2016 - if Dominguez or whomever flops, no big deal. We aren't going to be that good so now is the time to risk it.

[nate82]

Until one of Gatewood, Lara, or someone else needs to move to 3B I would just have Perez play at 3B every year. It is not like the Brewers are going to be competing for a World Series title next year or the year after that anyways. I would rather see the Brewers just trot out Perez everyday than sign a free agent or even trade for someone to play 3B.