2016 Rotation

[BrewersAA]

Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Garza, and Davies, with Blazek getting a shot to unseat one of those. As LouisEly says, Blazek has 3 pitches whereas Smith only really throws two. Not that it can't change, but he's pretty valuable where he's at. Maybe K-Rod gets moved later this year yet and Wil gets his shot to close.

 

I don't like the idea of adding Zimmerman at all. He's had one really nice year and is going to command a large deal. His peripherals are very average.

 

I dont know where all the "only 2 pitches" stuff is coming from on will smith... He was a 3 pitch starter in the royals system with a plus plus fastball, a plus change up, and a developing curveball. What he has done since coming to the brewers, and it actually started the second half of his last season with the royals, was develop a plus plus slider, a NASTY slider. This guy is a 6' 5" 230lbs Lefty with a four pitch mix 3 of which are Plus or better and you would rather give Blazek the spot... drives me nuts (sorry not you specifically).

 

Before he developed his now dominant slider he was considered to have No. 3 starter upside according to a fangraphs scouting report.

 

Here's a Ned Yost quote on smith in spring training his last season with the royals:

 

“The first two were so easy that I said, ‘Man, we’ve got to give him another one,'” Yost said. “He had all three of his pitches working today. Great downhill action on his fastball, really good changeup and a really good curve. He threw all three pitches for strikes.”

 

Here's a Smith quote about his developing slider (that is now his best pitch):

 

“Me and Sal [catcher Salvador Perez] were on a pretty good page today. We usually are,” Smith said. “We were working first-pitch fastballs for the most part and I think all the strikeouts came on sliders. It’s still kind of a new pitch but not really. I’m starting to get a better feel for it and throw it for strikes. I like it.”

 

Some people think that smiths curveball turned into his slider, but here's another quote that proves otherwise:

 

‘The slider was working and the curveball, too,’ Smith said.

 

So there you have it. Will Smith is a different pitcher than when he started for the royals and YES HE HAS MORE THAN 2 PITCHES! (if you are in the pen doing short spurts and you have 2 plus pitches why throw anything else?)

[tmwiese55]

I don't think Zimmerman is realistic at this point and probably not worth risk of a huge contract at this point in the Brewers development.

 

We lose so much salary this year that Garza's contract to us is really no big deal so there's no rush to trade him. Give him some time to regain his value and hopefully move him at the deadline next year. My guess is he was pitching hurt all year due to the clause in his contract about going on the DL.

 

Well it's good to know Smith has thrown other pitches in the past but he hasn't thrown anything besides FB/Slider in the two years with us so he'd have to put in some time on a curve and change. I'm for giving it a chance.

[rickh150]

Really, what would it hurt to try and stretch multiple guys out next spring? If it's Blazek or Smith or Thornburg, I would be for it. Yet, I see Thornburg as an injury waiting to happen and Smith's starting history, albeit short, is not great. Why not try to stretch each out, have them compete for the spot??

[reillymcshane]

Jordan Zimmerman had TJ surgery in 2010. I believe recent studies have shown that these surgeries often need to be repeated in 7-8 years. I'd avoid him on anything more than 2-3 years. He's a good player, but it's something to consider (not just for him, but any pitcher).

[FVBrewerFan]

I'll also add it's far more important that Peralta and Nelson can become front of the rotation type of guys. The #5 and #6 starter will work itself out, plenty of candidates. But if Peralta/Nelson can't approach their ceilings, that puts the whole rebuilding plan back a couple years because now you're waiting for the next wave to produce #1,#2 type starters.

 

It's hard enough to compete with teams that have two legit aces, but when you don't even have a true #2 (much less a #1), it's impossible.

[NievesNoNO]

So there you have it. Will Smith is a different pitcher than when he started for the royals and YES HE HAS MORE THAN 2 PITCHES! (if you are in the pen doing short spurts and you have 2 plus pitches why throw anything else?)

 

 

Fair point. I would definitely be interested in seeing if he can transition back to being a starter.

[Jenkins5]

Blazek and Smith are anchors in our bullpen, we have plenty of young arms to compete for spots who offer just as much as either of those two. Smith is a lefty so that'd be a plus but I like him out of the pen. Nothing wrong with having guys to close out games.... If that's what we want to do, I guess Jeffress needs to be thrown back in mix as well.

[QuevedosTongue]

I haven't seen anyone mention Cory Knebel in the bullpen. I think he's going to be a very good reliever, with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations. Once K-Rod is moved I think he'll have pitched well enough to at least consider him for closer.

[FVBrewerFan]

I haven't seen anyone mention Cory Knebel in the bullen. I think he's going to be a very good reliever, with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations. Once K-Rod is moved I think he'll have pitched well enough to at least consider him for closer.

 

True. But the reason nobody mentioned him is the thread is titled "2016 Rotation"

[superfly]

I think we can count on Peralta

 

If there ever was a young pitcher to deal right this moment for a bat (IE the Cashner for Rizzo thing) its this guy. I think we've seen what he is, hopefully another organization won't have seen it yet.

[SRB]

90% chance Davies is in the rotation, that's why they traded for him...

[MrTPlush]

I think we can count on Peralta

 

If there ever was a young pitcher to deal right this moment for a bat (IE the Cashner for Rizzo thing) its this guy. I think we've seen what he is, hopefully another organization won't have seen it yet.

 

Pretty sure everyone in MLB has seen it. They aren't blind or stupid.

[QuevedosTongue]

I haven't seen anyone mention Cory Knebel in the bullen. I think he's going to be a very good reliever, with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations. Once K-Rod is moved I think he'll have pitched well enough to at least consider him for closer.

 

True. But the reason nobody mentioned him is the thread is titled "2016 Rotation"

 

 

Really? Because no other possible bullpen names were mentioned? Really?

[MrTPlush]

I haven't seen anyone mention Cory Knebel in the bullen. I think he's going to be a very good reliever, with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations. Once K-Rod is moved I think he'll have pitched well enough to at least consider him for closer.

 

True. But the reason nobody mentioned him is the thread is titled "2016 Rotation"

 

 

Really? Because no other possible bullpen names were mentioned? Really?

 

Pretty sure the other bullpen options were mentioned as possibilities to be in the rotation. You just mention him Knebel as a reliever.

[pacopete4]

Maybe Jimmy Nelson is our ace? Sure would be nice.

[SRB]

Maybe Jimmy Nelson is our ace? Sure would be nice.

 

I think he's clearly our ace going into 2016, not to say he's a #1/#2 by the league's standards, but he is better than anybody else we've got.

[joepepsi]

I think the chances of Garza bouncing back are slim to none. He may survive as a 4-5 starter, but it's going to look somewhere between Suppan and Wolfe in their last years.

 

Garza hasn't made 30 starts in a season since 2011 (31). That year his K rate was 9, his K/BB rate 3.13:1. In his peak years his K/BB rate was always above 3:1. He arrived in Milwaukee and it fell to a still respectable 2.45:1 last year, but the downward slide has started. Now it's a 1.95:1, and his K rate is 6.3, and his walk rate is up. Hits are at a high rate not seen since the early days with the Twins.

 

He's going to have to radically change his approach to be successful. I doubt that happens.

[BrewersAA]

Speaking of Will Smith...

 

Did anyone see the NASTY (rated as plus just 2 seasons ago) Curveball that he got 2 BIG strikeouts with last night, one to a lefty and one to a righty.

 

I wonder if a potentially open rotation spot has him wanting to flash his Stuff.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes. That has been forgotten about by most, since he rarely uses his curve. It is the reason he could potentially be a starter. They could also go the other direction and make him the closer. Since there are finally other options to fill the rotation in 2016,2017 and beyond we'll see if they think Smith as a starter is worth experimenting with.

[FVBrewerFan]

I haven't seen anyone mention Cory Knebel in the bullen. I think he's going to be a very good reliever, with a chance to pitch in high-leverage situations. Once K-Rod is moved I think he'll have pitched well enough to at least consider him for closer.

 

True. But the reason nobody mentioned him is the thread is titled "2016 Rotation"

 

 

Really? Because no other possible bullpen names were mentioned? Really?

 

Sorry, I was just trying to be nice/helpful by explaining why Knebel's name hasn't been mentioned. Other relievers were mentioned in the context of whether or not they could be starting pitchers (Smith, Thornburg, Blazek)

[Jenkins5]

90% chance Davies is in the rotation, that's why they traded for him...

 

Agreed, he has to fall hard on his face pretty hard in spring training OR someone will need to star to steal the spot from him. Melvin and the personal group really likes him a lot.

 

Garza can still bounce back. He already has been better since coming off DL. By season end, u believe he will have value again.

 

 

Kind of like a 6 man rotation come September:

Peralta

Nelson

Jungmann

Garza

Last two spots for Thornburg, Davies, Cravy, Wagner

[markedman5]

Another outstanding start from Jungmann tonight. His curveball has improved by light years since he was drafted. Just nasty

[jjfanec]

Jungmann and Nelson have given me a lot more hope for the rotation going forward. Peralta needs to figure stuff out. We are by no means set for the future but we have some nice pieces

[MrTPlush]

Another outstanding start from Jungmann tonight. His curveball has improved by light years since he was drafted. Just nasty

 

What makes it work so well is the fact he is always getting it down in the zone. The whole time he has been in the bigs he has controlled his pitches and kept them down. With his frame it makes his stuff look a whole lot scarier and harder to hit. All those command issues in the minors have just evaporated into thin air.

[Jenkins5]

Jungmann and Nelson have given me a lot more hope for the rotation going forward. Peralta needs to figure stuff out. We are by no means set for the future but we have some nice pieces

 

What I look for in a pitcher at the easiest possible definition is a guy when I see his name as going on the mound that day, I have 100% confidence we will be in a position to win that game. I had that with Sheets & Yo (unless pitching against Cards) as the best examples. I'm really starting to feel that way about Nelson and Jungmann, they have both been outstanding for past 2 months now! Peralta is not there yet but I'm always hopeful he will put us in a good position to win. Garza and Lohse.... I don't expect much.

 

Really liking the future of our rotation and Pen. Next year we could have 5 homegrown pitchers (or acquired in trade as a prospect) which we have not been able to say since maybe the 90's? Peralta, Jungmann, and Nelson are a great building block for future. Now we just need to develop a true Ace.... Believe Riley Pint in 5-6 years will be that guy (#1 pick back in sights!)