2016 Rotation

[rickh150]

As of now, this is my rotation, including those in the hunt....

1. Peralta

2. Nelson

3. Garza

4. Jungmann

5. Blazek

 

Inside track

Davies

Lopez

Wagner

Suter

Cravy

 

 

Keep Smith and Thornburg in the pen with Jeffress and K-Rod

[sveumrules]

Assuming Lind's option is exercised we've got about 53 million in guaranteed salary for 2016 before arbitration & pre-arb guys. I foresee a sizable contract being offered to Jordan Zimmermann.

[ewitkows]

A bunch of teams are going to be after him, you'll have to overpay by a lot to get him on a non contender.

[torts]

I see no need to move Blazek to the rotation when you've got so many viable arms already stretched out and he's been so solid out of the bullpen. Davies is going to get the first shot at that 5th spot, not Blazek, followed by Thorny (who is getting stretched back out for the rotation), Wagner, Cravy, etc.

 

I'd be surprised if they go into the season next year with another FA rotation arm. If anything, I think this is the one off-season we dont go after a big contract arm and wait for 2017.

[Boomer5]

It should be Cravy/Wagner/Davies and Im leaning toward Davies here.

 

Blazek is doing great in his current role

[And That]

Next spring Blazek should absolutely be stretched out as a starter, as should Will Smith. If either (or both) of them cracks the rotation and are effective, it increases their value to the team immensely. If either (or both) are beaten out by other pitchers for starting roles, so be it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Assuming Lind's option is exercised we've got about 53 million in guaranteed salary for 2016 before arbitration & pre-arb guys. I foresee a sizable contract being offered to Jordan Zimmermann.

 

Great idea, but why would Zimmermann want to come to a team with such a punch-less lineup?

 

Zimmermann or no, the Brewers figure to have a very talented, young, inexpensive rotation, but a lineup of AAAA and AAA players, walking dead (waiting to be replaced by the hot prospects) and a few disgruntled veterans on long term deals who will hate losing.

 

Melvin's strengthened the farm system and presumably there are bats on the way, but for the near term, the lineup is awful around a very promising rotation, and he has plenty of money to spend if he chooses. But the FA market is rich and deep in starting pitching and sorely lacking in position players.

 

In line with the Cubs comparison that's so popular, is there a "Cashner for Rizzo" deal out there using one of the young starters? Probably not. Pitching is going to be readily available, so nobody is going to want to give up top talent to get it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Zimmermann is from Wisconsin. Big whoop. He's not signing here and he's certainly not going to take any sort of discount to play in Milwaukee. Maybe when he's 35 years old and washed up he might but not when he's about to cash in on a $100M+ contract. Let's move on from that dream.

[Roderick]

Zimmermann is from Wisconsin. Big whoop. He's not signing here and he's certainly not going to take any sort of discount to play in Milwaukee. Maybe when he's 35 years old and washed up he might but not when he's about to cash in on a $100M+ contract. Let's move on from that dream.

 

I think Zimmerman would give them a hometown discount (definition?), but it isn't really the right timing. They should take 2016 and hammer down the rotation (and 1B and 3B), looking towards fighting for a playoff spot in 2017.

 

I think we can count on Peralta and Nelson, but after that I think you need to spend 2016 to figure out who the other three starters will be in 2017. The more young and cheap starters we can count on in 2017, the more we can spend money to acquire a free agent to fill whatever positional holes we have.

 

If the Brewers somehow unload Garza and don't have to eat a lot of his contract - I can see the Brewers going after Zimmerman.

[tmwiese55]

Yes if it was 2011 Zimmerman would probably be all over coming home but not now. I'd expect him or Price as Cubs next year, maybe both.

 

Lohse should go to mop right now and Thornberg or Cravy get some starts to finish the year and see how they do. Nelson, Peralta, Jungman, Garza, then pick between Cravy/Thornberg/Davies for the 5th.

 

I brought up Will Smith a couple months ago as a starter and it was uniformly disagreed on by everyone here based on the few starts he had in KC and his splits. I thought when we got him that the plan was to be a starter but it never materialized.

[gregmag]

Next spring Blazek should absolutely be stretched out as a starter, as should Will Smith. If either (or both) of them cracks the rotation and are effective, it increases their value to the team immensely. If either (or both) are beaten out by other pitchers for starting roles, so be it.

I like this idea for the reason you give -- maximize the players' value. But how would you accommodate both of them in the rotation? You would presumably keep Peralta, Nelson, and Jungmann where they are. We dump Garza somehow. If you want both Blazek and Smith in the rotation, you have to bypass Thornburg, Davies, and Cravy. We can fudge a little bit by assuming there are six rather than five starting spots, accounting for injury. Still, two of Thornburg, Davies, and Cravy would be odd men out. (I'm not worrying about Lopez and Wagner yet, but they should be knocking on the door sometime next year.)

 

The question (to which I don't have an answer) is how to maximize the value of all the players involved. If we start Blazek and Smith, do we hurt the development of the odd men out?

 

This depth in young pitching is fantastic. I can't remember a Brewers team that had anything comparable. But these questions about developmental priorities are about to get a whole lot harder. This is why I like the idea of giving Thornburg some starts if he's physically up to it (see other thread). Knowing what we have in him now would be very useful.

[FVBrewerFan]

For the 5th spot, I hope they consider Smith. In fact, I would like to see them stretch him out this year and see what he can do in a couple starts.

 

Thornburg, I just don't know where his arm is at. Does he need rest, does he need to strengthen it back up? I'm not ruling him out, but his situation is, well, iffy.

 

I don't want to burn a year for Lopez, Wagner, or Davies. I would throw Cravy, Suter, Hall...guys like that into the mix and see if they stick. I just don't want to see top prospects burn a year in 2016.

[tmwiese55]

Yes we don't know if Smith is capable at this point after 3 years in the pen right now. Would probably have to do it is 2-3 innings initially with Lohse/Thornberg ready to step in. My logic on bringing it up months ago was simply that he appears to have the best 'stuff' of anybody on the staff, yet we're only getting 60-70 innings per year. 6'5 230 pound lefty with a huge slider. Of course the question is what will his 3rd pitch be, but there is a great frame to start with here. For all we know though, Smith and the team have both agreed that he's a reliever only.

[BrewersAA]

We have to keep in mind that if this team is truly rebuilding we cannot pencil in the rotation based on wins, but instead on value. Lets just go out on a wild limb and say Garza put it together to end the season, in a big way (god please) and the brewers are able to trade him. that gives you 2 spots and for my money, they should go to will smith and tyler thornburg.

 

Smith was traded for to be a starter, and i will be honest, call me crazy, he has the build, demeanor, STUFF, and attacking style to be a top of the rotation starter. His Nasty slider was not in his arsenal before... Some people think you shouldnt touch him due to his success in the pen and to that i say you are more crazy than me! middle-late inning relievers are cheap, volatile, and nearly valueless in the MLB... top of the rotation starter are nearly priceless... Im not saying thats what he is, but you would be crazy not to try to find out.

 

Then you have thornburg. I posted this in another thread so i wont get as detailed, but essentially he has ZERO value currently. But if he is even ALMOST as good in the rotation now as he was his previous 10 big league starts (he was DOMINANT) then he becomes a very nice asset that you can keep if you like him or flip for that 3rd or 1st baseman that is nowhere on the horizon in the brewers system.

 

if they both work out and you love them and all five spots are young, cheap, and controllable, you take that excellent depth and turn it into your future 3rd and 1st baseman.

 

And very long term, in 3 years when these guys are hitting arbitration and williams, medieros, ponce, and kirby are ready (among others) you flip them instead of paying them. then if jimmy nelson does become the ACE hes starting to look like you have the money to keep him.

[igor67]

The depth seems even greater because our pitchers have been unusually healthy so far this year. Sorting out is definitely a good problem to have. Sure beats open day starter Rafeal Roque.

[And That]

If you want both Blazek and Smith in the rotation, you have to bypass Thornburg, Davies, and Cravy. We can fudge a little bit by assuming there are six rather than five starting spots, accounting for injury. Still, two of Thornburg, Davies, and Cravy would be odd men out. (I'm not worrying about Lopez and Wagner yet, but they should be knocking on the door sometime next year.)

 

The question (to which I don't have an answer) is how to maximize the value of all the players involved. If we start Blazek and Smith, do we hurt the development of the odd men out?

IMO, Thornburg is done as a starter. If Blazek and Smith beat out Davies and Cravy (and whomever else, including Thornburg), then Davies and Cravy (which is fun to say) go back to AAA. I don't believe their development will be hurt by it. Heck, pitching in Colorado Springs is as good a test as there is for a pitcher.

 

If the Brewers just say, "Well, Smith and Blazek have been doing well in the bullpen, so there's no way we could take them out of the bullpen," the Brewers are dolts, and they lose the chance at creating extra starting pitching depth more or less out of thin air. Again, I'm not saying that either one is a sure thing as s starting pitcher at this point, but there is next to no harm in trying.

[jerichoholicninja]

Smith in the rotation is kind of intriguing until you look at his splits. This year is such a statistical outlier I think you have to discount it completely. In 2015 LHB have an .849 OPS against him (essentially what everyone has against Lohse this year) and RHB have a .429 OPS (league leader is about .400 against all batters). I'm not sure what you can glean from such huge reverse spit other than a lot a random variance.

 

Anyway here are his OPS against RHB in his career.

14 - .872

13 - .684

12 - .835 (all of which came as a starter)

 

If a guy can't get RHB out from the bullpen, how is he going to do as a starter when he faces 6 or 7 in a lineup multiple times? I'd love him to be a starter as much as the next guy, I just don't see it working out very well.

[MrTPlush]

Davies has the 2016 #5 spot unless someone can prove other wise in the next two months. They acquired him to be that guy.

[reillymcshane]

The average NL starter this year has an ERA of 3.94. Peralta and Nelson are right about there at this point of the season (Fiers was as well). Jungmann has, obviously, beat that this year, but I'm thinking some regression is in order. If he settles into this area as well, I think that's realistic. I also think Garza can get back to this zone area well, but that's me. If he can, I think that gives us four guys who are averageish - some maybe above average. That's not bad. If the fifth spot (Thornburg, Cravy, Davies or whomever) can be respectable - 4.00-4.50 ERA - it's a solid rotation - right about league average. Some players are likely to do a little better, but some will do a little worse. Plus there are injuries that will result in some lesser players get starts. In the end, it's probably more of an average rotation.

 

Of course, the team and fans may see some of these players as more than average or a little better than average. I don't think it's out of the question that Peralta or Nelson or Jungmann take a step forward and become more of a #2 type pitcher and produce a 3.20 ERA next year (on the flip side, I don't think it's out of the question for Garza to have a 5.00 ERA next year). It's the simple nature of pitching. An average pitcher has a good year and produces like a #2. Or has an off year and produces like a #4. Nature of the beast.

 

The bullpen is pitching well. Not outstanding, like KC's or St. Louis' pen (whose relievers have produce a sub-2.50 ERA) - but good (our bullpen ERA is 3.33 - 12th in the majors). The NL average is 3.46. If we can maintain that solid relieving - even improve, there's the potential for a solid staff. With a little luck, we could even be better than average.

 

It's something to build on. I still feel we lack top-of-the-rotation starters. I would have loved to have added a couple of prospects with big arms at the deadline, but it just wasn't in the cards. Gomez would have been the big trade chip for that to happen, so unless we deal Lucroy for one, we are probably stuck with what we have. Again, there's nothing wrong with what we have - inexpensive, solid players with room to improve.

 

An average, or slightly above average, pitching staff needs the offense to be above average. That is probably a ways away - but that's a different thread.

 

I think it's okay to let the guys play out, see if anyone steps. I don't think we are going to win next year, so let the players development. Maybe a couple of guys emerge as a top-of-the-rotation force. Let's find out, and later next year and in 2017 some of our more promising position players will start to arrive. Arcia, Phillips, Reed, Taylor, etc. - these guys can hopefully transform things on the offensive side. Add in a lack of big salaries, and you can potentially fill some holes in free agency.

[clancyphile]

The best rotation, IMO:

Jungmann, Peralta, Nelson, and two of Cravy/Davies/Suter/Thornburg/Hader/Wagner/Johnson

[LouisEly]

C.J. Wilson was a reliever for several years before moving into the rotation. Can't see why they don't try it with Blazek and Smith. The thing with Smith is, what is his 3rd pitch and how good is it? I only see him throwing FB and slider. Blazek has three pitches (FB, curve, slider, maybe change) so I think he could do it before Smith.

 

Young decent team-controlled starting pitching is the most valuable commodity there is, so try to get as many folks qualified for that label as possible and trade excess.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Garza really sticks out, doesn't he? Pitching is volatile enough that he could well bounce back, of course, but right now that contract is depressing. If they release Lohse, Garza's salary would be about the same as all the other pitchers on the 2015 roster combined...which would be just fine if he were effective. I mean, $12.5M isn't crazy for a good pitcher...

 

While there's not a clear cut ace on the roster, it's sure nice to have steady middle of rotation guys with modest paychecks. For so many years the Brewers have had to pay market value for average starters like Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, knowing full well that with many veteran free agents, you're lucky if you get two good years out of a three year contract.

 

Sadly I doubt Garza is going anywhere, so there's probably only one rotation slot up for grabs, until someone gets hurt, and plenty of candidates. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Peralta before he hits arbitration.

[MNBrew]

In the winter, Garza might be seen as a reasonable trade target for teams desperate for any kind of upgrade to their rotation. And it's possible that if the Brewers are looking to move him to clear roster and/or payroll space, the asking price may not be prohibitive.

 

I love the Zimmermann idea because he's a dang good pitcher. If he sees the Brewers as having the right kind of young talent and the right environment in which it can develop, then he might be willing to join a team he sees as being soon on its ascent -- similar (though not completely) to Jon Lester signing with the Cubs. The home-state angle just might help him be a little more receptive to seeing the Brewers in the ready-to-ascend stage. Call it blasphemous, but he's a guy you throw the big money at because I think he's just that good.

[NievesNoNO]

Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Garza, and Davies, with Blazek getting a shot to unseat one of those. As LouisEly says, Blazek has 3 pitches whereas Smith only really throws two. Not that it can't change, but he's pretty valuable where he's at. Maybe K-Rod gets moved later this year yet and Wil gets his shot to close.

 

I don't like the idea of adding Zimmerman at all. He's had one really nice year and is going to command a large deal. His peripherals are very average.

[umphrey]

Garza is only 31 and he hasn't lost velocity. I think he's actually a pretty good bounce back candidate either 2nd half this year or next year and then he will be more tradable. Right now could well be the lowest point in his value over this contract with 2.5 years left and coming off the worst 100 innings of his career.