Should Thornburg be given a shot in the rotation?

[BrewersAA]

Question is who is the best option going forward? Brewers have Davies, Cravy, Wagner, Lopez, and Suter all pushing for a spot in 2016... Is Thornburg still ahead of those guys? If his arm was still the same, I'd say yes, but it's not hard to tell he isn't the same anymore.

 

Next year we got:

Peralta

Nelson

Jungmann

Locked in.

 

Garza will be on market all spring and next season so whenever they find a suitor for him. If not traded in off season, he will be slotted in

 

Then I say Davies will slot in for Fiers

 

If somehow we got lucky and traded Garza, Jorge Lopez would be my favorite dark horse for #5 spot after Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Davies.

 

I feel like this might belong in the 2016 rotation thread, but I will say my peace on your point. I think its more important to see what you have in thornburg than any of these other guys because this team is in the middle of a rebuild. In thornburg you have a former top 100 prospect with insane K rates as a starter throughout the minors that has ZERO current value. Every other guy you mentioned currently has decent value as an unproven commodity. You need to let thornburg start and see if he still has it at the top level for the rest of this season. If he fails, you (the brewers) are in exactly the same position, all those other guys still have the same value and thornburg has the same value and in the end you might be closer to the top pick in the 16' draft.

 

Now, if he succeeds, this is why you do it, all the other guys you mentioned still have the exact same value, but thornburgs value goes from zero to the highest on that list, thats a significant gain for a team in baseballs smallest market, and you still likely have a top 5 pick due to this team not being able to score runs.

 

If this does happen then the brewers have options, if you still dont 'like' thornburg he is tradable and his price is significantly higher, maybe worth an exciting AA 3rd or 1st baseman. If the brewers do like him you now have another young and controllable starter blocking the patch to guys like cravy and davies, which i bet could bring back a nice player if packaged in a trade.

 

So i know this got long and hopefully i kept it succinct, but its all about value. If your team is rebuilding, and playing for a top 5 pick, it literally doesnt make any sense to this arm chair GM to not start Thornburg now that the deadline has passed.

 

(this is the same reason they kept trotting lohse out there, hoping he recouped some value)

[gregmag]

If he's up to starting, I think it would be smart to give him a shot. We don't know what we have in him as a starter right now. We can't trust Colorado Springs numbers. That isn't to say that everybody will be Taylor Jungmann; I think Colorado Springs probably compresses stats at the low end, which means some guys who crash and burn there are just bad. But we certainly can't rely on those numbers to rule Thornburg out.

 

As others have pointed out, however, Thornburg doesn't appear to be the same pitcher physically he was before. To me, this isn't about earned opportunity. It's about giving a player the best chance he can to succeed and help the team. If CC and company think Thornburg has a decent chance to thrive as a starter, they should give him some starts. If not, not.

[SoCalBrewfan]

What good can come of giving Lohse any further starts? Trading him just isn't likely at this point and he's just taking innings from players who still have a chance to be part of the future. When your team is not doing well, it only makes sense to use that major league playing time to evaluate players. It's the great advantage of a lost season...we can give Hernan Perez and Logan Schafer a bunch of ABs to see how they respond. We have 24 games in August before rosters expand Sept 1, plus four off days. Tell Thornburg he will make four starts guaranteed, taking over the rotation slot occupied by Lohse. After those four, it's September, when you'll be adding a slew of pitchers, including potential starters Cravy, Davies, and possibly Wagner* and Burgos, as well as relievers Goforth and Pena. They need to make some 40-man roster decisions this offseason (e.g., add Burgos? keep Thornburg and Pena?), and they should have as much good information as possible when doing so.

 

*Edit: Wagner will presumably be pitching for the Shuckers in the playoffs...

[Thurston Fluff]

I'd let thornburg start the rest of the year. If he does really well then maybe next year they can put him the bullpen as a long reliever and then send him down to AAA to start. Just keep rotating him between big league reliever and AAA starter. That won't affect his game at all. Oh wait....

 

He's out of options next season so they can't just move him up and down when they want.

 

Overall my only concern is how healthy his arm is. I'd hate to add to his workload after he narrowly missed TJ surgery last season. I don't know the amount of time it takes to come all the way back from non surgical recovery of a strained elbow ligament relative to surgical repair, but why risk the added workload in the first year back when you don't have to?

[BrewersAA]

I'd let thornburg start the rest of the year. If he does really well then maybe next year they can put him the bullpen as a long reliever and then send him down to AAA to start. Just keep rotating him between big league reliever and AAA starter. That won't affect his game at all. Oh wait....

 

He's out of options next season so they can't just move him up and down when they want.

 

Overall my only concern is how healthy his arm is. I'd hate to add to his workload after he narrowly missed TJ surgery last season. I don't know the amount of time it takes to come all the way back from non surgical recovery of a strained elbow ligament relative to surgical repair, but why risk the added workload in the first year back when you don't have to?

 

This is assuming that relieving is easier on the arm than starting... Which is a hot topic, because its conventional that relieving is easier, but as the games changed so has this common school of thought. Many now believe that relieve is much harder on the arm than starting (which is how thornburg got hurt in the first place!!). Being in a rotation with a consistent routine and strict pitch counts and a game plan is much less stress on the arm than going out a random 4 out of 6 days and throwing anywhere between 10 and 30 pitches as hard as you can when depending on the situation maybe a guy is throwing 10 straight breaking pitches (harder on the arm) and so on. Today's MLB is just different and a lot of research is starting to show that starting is much more effective at avoiding injuries. Some clubs, the brewers included, start guys throughout the minors that they know are relievers until they get to double A as to not put the stress of high leverage relieving on their arms for as many years.

[BrewersAA]

I'd let thornburg start the rest of the year. If he does really well then maybe next year they can put him the bullpen as a long reliever and then send him down to AAA to start. Just keep rotating him between big league reliever and AAA starter. That won't affect his game at all. Oh wait....

 

They could also pass him up for the promotion to start in favor of someone else nearly every time even though he has the performance and the peripherals... Who says the brewers dont prepare their players for the mental rigors of the game....

[hurricanecrush]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 4h4 hours ago Milwaukee, WI

For first time #Brewers manager Craig Counsell says Kyle Lohse rotation spot will be discussed.

So, they're going to pitch him on 3 days rest and go for the number 1 pick? YES!!!

[Jenkins5]

Not having TJ surgery may very well have been a crucial mistake for him. Trust me, I was a HUGE Thornburg fan. Had him way above Nelson and pretty close to Peralta but now with the drop in velocity, his stuff is nowhere near as dominating.

 

Lohse needs to be out of rotation. So mid as well give him next shot to see what he is now. Maybe he rebounds to former stuff & velocity

[monty57]

I'd let thornburg start the rest of the year. If he does really well then maybe next year they can put him the bullpen as a long reliever and then send him down to AAA to start. Just keep rotating him between big league reliever and AAA starter. That won't affect his game at all. Oh wait....

 

He's out of options next season so they can't just move him up and down when they want.

 

Overall my only concern is how healthy his arm is. I'd hate to add to his workload after he narrowly missed TJ surgery last season. I don't know the amount of time it takes to come all the way back from non surgical recovery of a strained elbow ligament relative to surgical repair, but why risk the added workload in the first year back when you don't have to?

 

I believe Paul was being a bit sarcastic, saying that is what the Brewers did to Thornburg in the past, which could have hurt him.

 

After those four, it's September, when you'll be adding a slew of pitchers, including potential starters Cravy, Davies, and possibly Wagner* and Burgos, as well as relievers Goforth and Pena.

 

Losing teams don't generally call up as many players as winning teams. I doubt the Brewers make too many Sept callups, especially of younger promising guys as we don't want to burn up service time in a mop-up role in a lost season. More likely to see fringe 40-man guys called up so the MLB guys can get a better look at them to see if they're worth holding on to.

[Thurston Fluff]

This is assuming that relieving is easier on the arm than starting... Which is a hot topic, because its conventional that relieving is easier, but as the games changed so has this common school of thought. Many now believe that relieve is much harder on the arm than starting (which is how thornburg got hurt in the first place!!). Being in a rotation with a consistent routine and strict pitch counts and a game plan is much less stress on the arm than going out a random 4 out of 6 days and throwing anywhere between 10 and 30 pitches as hard as you can when depending on the situation maybe a guy is throwing 10 straight breaking pitches (harder on the arm) and so on. Today's MLB is just different and a lot of research is starting to show that starting is much more effective at avoiding injuries. Some clubs, the brewers included, start guys throughout the minors that they know are relievers until they get to double A as to not put the stress of high leverage relieving on their arms for as many years.

 

I think that argument is more compelling if you are talking about a normal reliever, in a normal year, being used the normal way. AS it stands the Brewers can pick and choose how they use him in the pen better than they can if he starts every 5th day. There wouldn't be nearly the stress on the arm if they used him an inning or so then let him rest for five days then use him again for example. That has to be less stress on the arm than being used multiple innings every 5th day.

 

I believe Paul was being a bit sarcastic, saying that is what the Brewers did to Thornburg in the past, which could have hurt him.

 

So was mine though looking at it in print it probably was so subtle I should have replied in blue.

[pacopete4]

Start him. Even if it's in a 6-man rotation, start him and evaluate him as a starter. Silly not to.

[TheCrew07]

I'd rather see Cravy get a shot in the rotation than Thornburg, unless Thornburg's velocity bounces back I see no reason to try him as a starter again.

 

Davies throws a similar 88-92 FB to Thornburg with better control and a plus change if we're looking for someone with blah type velocity to round out the rotation and have success like Fiers did.

 

My vote is Cravy.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Losing teams don't generally call up as many players as winning teams. I doubt the Brewers make too many Sept callups, especially of younger promising guys as we don't want to burn up service time in a mop-up role in a lost season. More likely to see fringe 40-man guys called up so the MLB guys can get a better look at them to see if they're worth holding on to.

 

It's not really that many, and usually there are several pitchers as there are always innings to be had, especially if they are putting a cap on some of the younger guys. When Lohse goes that's one slot anyway, and that day will come sooner or later. (Please?) Goforth has been up and down, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't up in September. Davies is a strong rotation candidate for next year with very little left to prove in AAA, so it's good to bring him up to get a few September starts and a taste of big league hitters. Cravy they might well just shut down as he's already passed his career high in innings, and Wagner wouldn't come up until Biloxi is done. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd think they'd want to get one last look at Pena and Burgos to decide whether they're part of the future or not. Possibly those ships have sailed, though...

 

Position players are another story; there are a bunch of infielders on the 40 man roster they need to sort out.

[ebmackenzie]

Start him.

If he is Fiers part two then he is in play next year.

If he bombs then that #1 pick gets closer.

 

Lohse has full Suppan'd and it's time to move on.

[And That]

I say start Lohse every day for the remainder of the season. Brewers need to go all-in on that #1 pick. No one else starts.

[dacbrewers]

I think the reason they called up Thornburg is to see how he performs. Based on what he does through the end of the year will give the Brewers something to think about come next year. I like Thornburg but velocity has dropped, doesn't mean he still can't pitch. Most of the pitchers at Colorado Springs have high numbers but the number of home runs (16) Thornburg has given up in 88.1 innings pitched was a little concerning and he gave up (3) homers in 13 innings in the Majors.