Braun- looking like second half 2014

[CheezWizHed]

It was pretty much the consensus that Braun would remain at or near his peak longer than Fielder and certainly to age 33 or 34. That certainly isn't the case in 2015. Braun's trend is downward.

 

Of course, so was Fielder's trend until this year. He dropped off quickly when he left the Brewers, then had back surgery and most (I) thought he was done. This year he is one point off of leading the lead in BA.

[tmwiese55]

It was pretty much the consensus that Braun would remain at or near his peak longer than Fielder and certainly to age 33 or 34. That certainly isn't the case in 2015. Braun's trend is downward.

 

Of course, so was Fielder's trend until this year. He dropped off quickly when he left the Brewers, then had back surgery and most (I) thought he was done. This year he is one point off of leading the lead in BA.

 

[sarcasm]Trade Braun back to TX, get the gang back together[/sarcasm]

[dlk9s]

It was pretty much the consensus that Braun would remain at or near his peak longer than Fielder and certainly to age 33 or 34. That certainly isn't the case in 2015. Braun's trend is downward.

 

Of course, so was Fielder's trend until this year. He dropped off quickly when he left the Brewers, then had back surgery and most (I) thought he was done. This year he is one point off of leading the lead in BA.

Fielder didn't really drop off quickly.

 

In his first year in DET, he hit .313/.412/.528/.940. 4th best OPS and OPS+ in the AL.

 

The following year, 2013, was his drop off year: .279/.362/.457/.819, but his OPS+ was still 122, which is good. I'm not sure when the MLB-wide decline in offense began. Was it that season?

 

2014 was a lost season because of his neck problem. And then, of course, he's doing well this year.

[Baldkin]

I'm sure hitting in front of Prince Fielder had something to do with it? I'm sure there's a way to prove this, number of strikes he saw back then vs now but I won't take the time to look it up.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

 

Sullivan’s 2012 findings corroborate a direct statement Donaldson offers and that many of the other players and managers cited above and in Laurila's account expressed in various forms: "People are going to pitch to you the way they’re going to pitch to you." While protection is on the mind of the managers and pitchers, it doesn’t trump the more immediate matter of pitching to the batter standing sixty feet away.

[CheezWizHed]

In his first year in DET, he hit .313/.412/.528/.940. 4th best OPS and OPS+ in the AL.

 

The following year, 2013, was his drop off year: .279/.362/.457/.819, but his OPS+ was still 122, which is good. I'm not sure when the MLB-wide decline in offense began. Was it that season?

 

2014 was a lost season because of his neck problem. And then, of course, he's doing well this year.

 

Fielder OPS from 2011 to 2015: 981, 940, 819, 720, 894

- Add in the neck injury (Fused discs?) and most people thought this contract was going to be a major boat anchor prior to this year (might still be).

 

Braun's OPS in the same years: 994, 987, 869, 777, 821

- Last year was when his thumb injury cropped up.

 

Braun is about 6 months older than Fielder.

 

My only point was that both players trended down for those 4 years in a similar fashion (including an injury last year) and similar level of play and bounced back some this year.

[tmwiese55]

Braun's thumb started in 2013 before the suspension. If I recall he went on the DL at one point that year for it then came back and it wasn't really fixed so they thought he was going to miss a lot more time anyway and the team was out of it, so he just took the suspension to get it over with rather than arguing for a few more weeks like everyone else did. His drop-off correlates right with the thumb, he'll never be the same. We should just hope he maintains at least similar to this season and then the contract won't be a major problem.

[Boomer5]

Braun's thumb started in 2013 before the suspension. If I recall he went on the DL at one point that year for it then came back and it wasn't really fixed so they thought he was going to miss a lot more time anyway and the team was out of it, so he just took the suspension to get it over with rather than arguing for a few more weeks like everyone else did. His drop-off correlates right with the thumb, he'll never be the same. We should just hope he maintains at least similar to this season and then the contract won't be a major problem.

 

Im a lost cause in that I will every buy the drop off had to do exclusively with the thumb, and that it is permanently career altering. That is WAY too convenient.

 

But for the sake of argument, what caused the injury? And can anyone think of a player that had a thumb injury that still allowed him to play but drop 150 OPS? I cant.

[tmwiese55]

Yea we'll never know what would have happened without the thumb problem. Add in the overall dropoff of offense all over with the injury and PEDs. I'm in the camp that PEDs aren't some magical stat producing potion anymore so my guess would be that he would have continued killing it but with a slow dropoff due to age and decline in offense overall.

[dlk9s]

Im a lost cause in that I will every buy the drop off had to do exclusively with the thumb, and that it is permanently career altering. That is WAY too convenient.

 

But for the sake of argument, what caused the injury? And can anyone think of a player that had a thumb injury that still allowed him to play but drop 150 OPS? I cant.

It's not convenient. It literally is far and away the primary reason that Braun is not as good as he was in his MVP years. His dropoff in production correlates perfectly with the thumb injury. And from hearing it described by him and doctors, it sounds horrible. I believe there's a moment he thinks it happened, but I can't recall when/what it was (got hit on it or got jammed really badly on a pitch or something).

 

As to the disbelief that a thumb injury can be so bad to cause such a dropoff in production yet the player is still well enough to play, think of it another way: Braun is that good of a player that he has been able to tough it out and still be serviceable, even at his worst. Additionally, some of his lower numbers can be attributed to overall drops in offense in MLB.

 

I know people want to say, "I KNEW IT! NO MORE PED'S SO NOW HE'S NOT SUPERMAN!" Sure, maybe the PED's helped, I don't know, but after learning about the injury and watching him play prior to the cryo-procedure, it couldn't be more obvious that his thumb has been a huge problem.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Seeing as the thumb/thumbpad on a hitter's top hand is just about the most important part of their grip, suffering a nerve injury that leads to the problems Braun has faced at that location all but guarantees a significant drop in production.

 

It's unfortunate - Braun's monster 2012 season was the season after the failed PED test that ultimately led to his suspension - he continued to crush the baseball and turn on inside pitches with ease. His thumb injury didn't occur until early 2013.

[Boomer5]

Has this injury ever occurred before? We all understand how a thumb is important to hitting and how its vulnerable. But, there have been over 18K major league players and I have never heard of a career long issue of this type. The occasional break sure, but nothing like this. If Im wrong, show me.

 

It walks like a duck and quacks like a duck. Offense is magically down around baseball right after MLB finally starting handing out big suspensions and taking PEDS more seriously. Braun is down 150 points even with what is pretty cutting edge treatment. Do the math. Occam's razor.

 

We will have to agree to disagree about the reason behind Braun's drop in performance now three years running.

 

Ultimately, it doesn't matter. The Braun of the 990 HOF first ballet stuff is long gone. He's just a Good Player now.

 

I feel for comedic reasons, I have to throw in a guy who just maybe proves that something can help a player hit for power. Again, this is one for the laughs, but look at this state card. Any power season jump out at you?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml

[tmwiese55]

But his production didn't drop until the thumb. Presumably he hasn't used anything close to illegal since the end of 2011. 2012 was his best season, without Fielder behind him. 2013 he was doing the same thing until the injury. The correlation would line up with the thumb, not when he likely quit using PEDs. Also, many people would argue defensive shifts are the biggest reason for the offensive decline than the PEDs. Plenty of the guys that have been suspended continued to hit just fine after they came back.

 

I haven't read a ton about the thumb thing but my understanding is that simple break would be much better than this nerve problem. I think they only saw it one other player before (for some reason I want to say Victorino?) and had no idea how to treat it in the offseason of his suspension leading into 2014 season, which ruined him last year. then this year they tried the surgery and you can tell it's helped. he at least keeps his top hand on the bat this year, while he couldn't last year. Hindsight they should have tried this surgery right after the suspension, but I'm remembering something about this procedure not having been created at that point yet?

[Boomer5]

But his production didn't drop until the thumb. Presumably he hasn't used anything close to illegal since the end of 2011. 2012 was his best season, without Fielder behind him. 2013 he was doing the same thing until the injury. The correlation would line up with the thumb, not when he likely quit using PEDs. Also, many people would argue defensive shifts are the biggest reason for the offensive decline than the PEDs. Plenty of the guys that have been suspended continued to hit just fine after they came back.

 

I haven't read a ton about the thumb thing but my understanding is that simple break would be much better than this nerve problem. I think they only saw it one other player before (for some reason I want to say Victorino?) and had no idea how to treat it in the offseason of his suspension leading into 2014 season, which ruined him last year. then this year they tried the surgery and you can tell it's helped. he at least keeps his top hand on the bat this year, while he couldn't last year. Hindsight they should have tried this surgery right after the suspension, but I'm remembering something about this procedure not having been created at that point yet?

 

You're buying into Braun's version of the timeline and when he "stopped" taking any kind of PEDS. Im not. We will not agree on this; you have as much chance of convincing me of the thumb being a career altering injury as you do of convincing me that Jay Culter is as good as Aaron. Im sure the reverse is true with you as well.

 

Again, it really doesn't matter, the result is the same. He is a not a 990 guy anymore.

[tmwiese55]

No it's not really his story. It's when he failed the test. I don't really see it as possible that he continued after that failed test. But if your hatred allows you to believe it, go ahead. It's just bad all the way around, we'll never know what he'd have been like without the the thumb problem.

[MrTPlush]

Well if he was truly taking PEDs for injury problems maybe it is a major part of his game. So then PEDs would be a huge help to him and make a big difference. He has been a crippled mess since biogenesis unfolded.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly right Plush. That is the biggest area it would be affecting, he can't use to recover his body and get over the nagging things he has. The thumb is probably irrelevant to that being a nerve thing. But all the other little stuff he's constantly dinged up with, definitely. That's one of the reasons I'd prefer them to lighten up a bit and let them use more things, I'd rather see the best guys playing than having to sit out for rest or miss a game or two extra when dealing with some minor muscle injury. The stuff these guys were doing aren't the meathead get jacked up stuff like the late 90s early 00s.

[Boomer5]

Well if he was truly taking PEDs for injury problems maybe it is a major part of his game. So then PEDs would be a huge help to him and make a big difference. He has been a crippled mess since biogenesis unfolded.

 

I agree here. He is very much in his prime years and he is playing like he is winding down. PEDs have to be part of the reason. PEDs do give the players strength. These guys have put up better stats than 95% of baseball history. Tough to ignore.

[dlk9s]

Occam's razor.

Occam's Razor would say a crippling thumb injury would be the primary reason for Braun's decline.

[The stache]

Well if he was truly taking PEDs for injury problems maybe it is a major part of his game. So then PEDs would be a huge help to him and make a big difference. He has been a crippled mess since biogenesis unfolded.

 

I agree here. He is very much in his prime years and he is playing like he is winding down. PEDs have to be part of the reason. PEDs do give the players strength. These guys have put up better stats than 95% of baseball history. Tough to ignore.

 

Please....stop with the PED nonsense. He's got 20 home runs, on a pace for 29 homers. The thumb issue is a factor, but he's still one of the most productive hitters in the NL. Top ten in home runs, runs scored, and RBI.

[Ennder]

The Peds used in today's game are nothing like the ones Sosa and Bonds used. The subset of players who got suspended barely dropped production at all. It is much more likely that his thumb is the issue. He is also trying an experimental treatment so of course you haven't heard of this before. It used to be you had surgery and it either worked or your career was over.

 

Also the number one reason offense is down is defense. The combination of defensive shifts and shift towards better defensive players has crippled offenses. I'd expect to continue to see the death of the pull power hitter. Very few of them left out there compared to even 5 years ago.

[SRB]

If you look at Braun's stats, his ISO is down but the real 'problem' is that he is hitting too many ground balls. His LD% is at career norms (18.4% this season, 18.3% for his career, 18.4% in his last MVP-caliber season (2012)), as is his HR/FB% (19.8% this season (not counting tonight's HR), 18.2% for his career, 18.8% in his 2011 MVP season). So he is still hitting the ball as hard as ever. However, over the last three season he is hitting a lot more ground balls and fewer fly balls. Combined with the fact that he's not as fast as he used to be, all those ground balls are really killing his AVG/SLG.

 

I'm not sure what's causing him to hit the ball on the ground more, whether it is age or the thumb issue messing with his swing, but I'm pretty sure it's not PEDs.

[dlk9s]

BUT PEDS THOUGH

[The stache]

It's the year of the pitcher, in case you guys haven't noticed. I have five starting pitchers on my fantasy team with an ERA under 2.50. Look at some of the pitchers in the game, and what they're doing. Hell, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw had back to back 30 inning shutout streaks. Hello?

 

Braun is doing just fine. His BAbip is still 29 points below his career norm, which explains his batting average still being lower than we're used to. And his OPS is only 29 points below where it was in 2010. He's hitting the ball hard, obviously. His numbers the last three months have been quite good, actually.

 

From May 13th to August 12th:

 

.279 AVG, 79 games played, 47 runs, 77 hits, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 14 home runs, 47 RBI, 14 steals in 16 attempts, 28 walks, 67 strikeouts. Slash line of .350/.518/.868.

 

That projects out to the following numbers if he played a full 162 game season: 96 runs scored, 158 hits, 41 doubles, 4 triples, 29 home runs, 96 RBI, 29 stolen bases. 74 extra base hits.

[The stache]

He's 3 for 4 tonight. The rest of the team has three hits. At .871 with his OPS the last three months. Ya, he's just been so terrible.

[The stache]

If you look at Braun's stats, his ISO is down but the real 'problem' is that he is hitting too many ground balls. His LD% is at career norms (18.4% this season, 18.3% for his career, 18.4% in his last MVP-caliber season (2012)), as is his HR/FB% (19.8% this season (not counting tonight's HR), 18.2% for his career, 18.8% in his 2011 MVP season). So he is still hitting the ball as hard as ever. However, over the last three season he is hitting a lot more ground balls and fewer fly balls. Combined with the fact that he's not as fast as he used to be, all those ground balls are really killing his AVG/SLG.

 

I'm not sure what's causing him to hit the ball on the ground more, whether it is age or the thumb issue messing with his swing, but I'm pretty sure it's not PEDs.

 

Agreed with the majority of your post, but I don't think his speed has really declined that much, if at all. He's 16 for 18 stealing, and is racking up the doubles at a pace that would tie his career high. He didn't have a double in his first 29 games. In the last 80 games, he has 22. That would put him at 44-45, which is his personal best, which he reached in 2010. Keep in mind, in 2010, he only hit 25 home runs.

 

I think if his thumb were healthy, he'd be putting up some eye popping numbers. Why? Look at how far his home runs are traveling, and the speed of the ball off the bat. He's actually hitting the ball farther than he did in 2011 and 2012, and the velocity of the ball off his bat is very much in line with his MVP and MVP runner up seasons:

 

2015 Avg true home run distance 409.7 Speed off bat 104.4

 

2012 AVG true home run distance 406.9 Speed off of bat 104.2

 

2011 AVG true home run distance 406.7. Speed off bat 104.7

 

Source ESPN home run tracker.