Braun- looking like second half 2014

[MNBrew]

I wonder if Braun's thumb is acting up a little since most hits seem to be to RF. But one of the beat writers mentioned very recently that he's still consistently driving the ball with authority. As long as that's the case, I don't care which field it goes to.

 

His power seems to be closer on track with his good years, his speed is fine, his BA is holding fairly steady if not improving, his walk rate is up, and his defense is reliably solid. In all, that seems like he's still in much better shape & playing much better than he was this time last year.

 

On a different note, Bryant strikes me as this year's version of pre-2015 Bryce Harper: far more hype than results, with Bryant's main attribute being immense raw power vs. Harper's overall promise but overall-average results.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun isn't playing like the .940+ potential Hall of Famer, perennial MVP candidate he was before, but he is still very very good. He also has been very clutch in pennant races & playoff games in his career and is not the kind of player who shrinks in the spotlight at all.

 

Despite the (relative) down years, he is still 26th All-Time in Slugging Percentage, right in between Ralph Kiner & Mike Piazza

[endaround]

I wonder if Braun's thumb is acting up a little since most hits seem to be to RF. But one of the beat writers mentioned very recently that he's still consistently driving the ball with authority. As long as that's the case, I don't care which field it goes to.

 

His power seems to be closer on track with his good years, his speed is fine, his BA is holding fairly steady if not improving, his walk rate is up, and his defense is reliably solid. In all, that seems like he's still in much better shape & playing much better than he was this time last year.

 

On a different note, Bryant strikes me as this year's version of pre-2015 Bryce Harper: far more hype than results, with Bryant's main attribute being immense raw power vs. Harper's overall promise but overall-average results.

 

1. Braun's defense is bad. UZR has him -7.2/150 in RF. at It is what makes him an average to above average RFer. His bat is above average but his defense drags it all down. He's 11th in fWAR with 1.9 wins. The maligned Van Slyke has a WAR of 1.6 is about half the playing time. Ethier has 1.9 in fewer PAs as he's basically being platooned.

 

2. I get the Harper comparison to a degree. But it is important to stress that Bryant is older than Harper. And Harper's 2012 rookie season may still end up being a better season that Bryant's 2015 as Bryant's BABIP comes down to a sustainable level.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

You guys are barking up the wrong tree with the Dodgers. They are using their deep pockets to absorb other teams contracts and taking their prospects in the deals. If Braun goes to the Dodgers, we'd be sending them the prospects not the other way around. I wouldn't want to be on the other side of any of their trades. It's a mismatch of brain power and money. I'd rather see the Brewers act like the Dodgers a little. Take on a bad 1-2 year contract that includes some impact prospects from an irrational player like the Marlins. A mini-Dodgers version using some new found limited financial flexibility.

[Boomer5]

You guys are barking up the wrong tree with the Dodgers. They are using their deep pockets to absorb other teams contracts and taking their prospects in the deals. If Braun goes to the Dodgers, we'd be sending them the prospects not the other way around. I wouldn't want to be on the other side of any of their trades. It's a mismatch of brain power and money. I'd rather see the Brewers act like the Dodgers a little. Take on a bad 1-2 year contract that includes some impact prospects from an irrational player like the Marlins. A mini-Dodgers version using some new found limited financial flexibility.

 

I think you're right. The LA team that might be the better match is the Angels. They need the offense, and Kubitza/Newcomb is a nice package. Im not sure what contract we would have to take back though, since they already dumped their main head ache.

[tmwiese55]

You guys are barking up the wrong tree with the Dodgers. They are using their deep pockets to absorb other teams contracts and taking their prospects in the deals. If Braun goes to the Dodgers, we'd be sending them the prospects not the other way around. I wouldn't want to be on the other side of any of their trades. It's a mismatch of brain power and money. I'd rather see the Brewers act like the Dodgers a little. Take on a bad 1-2 year contract that includes some impact prospects from an irrational player like the Marlins. A mini-Dodgers version using some new found limited financial flexibility.

 

I don't think every move they've made has been that. And even if true that doesn't mean they would only do that in the future, every situation is different. What we could get back would depend on how well Braun plays. If it's just salary dump then yea they won't give anything, if Braun is good and we take a bad contract back with us then they should give something. A lot of the elements are there: unlimited budget, contract we can take back, location he will go, need in LF, good farm system. Personally I'm fine keeping him and I really don't think the Brewers are looking to move him but if they did this would be my first call. My guess is they'll listen when someone calls but they're not pursuing a trade of him.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wonder if Braun's thumb is acting up a little since most hits seem to be to RF. But one of the beat writers mentioned very recently that he's still consistently driving the ball with authority. As long as that's the case, I don't care which field it goes to.

 

His power seems to be closer on track with his good years, his speed is fine, his BA is holding fairly steady if not improving, his walk rate is up, and his defense is reliably solid. In all, that seems like he's still in much better shape & playing much better than he was this time last year.

 

On a different note, Bryant strikes me as this year's version of pre-2015 Bryce Harper: far more hype than results, with Bryant's main attribute being immense raw power vs. Harper's overall promise but overall-average results.

 

1. Braun's defense is bad. UZR has him -7.2/150 in RF. at It is what makes him an average to above average RFer. His bat is above average but his defense drags it all down. He's 11th in fWAR with 1.9 wins. The maligned Van Slyke has a WAR of 1.6 is about half the playing time. Ethier has 1.9 in fewer PAs as he's basically being platooned.

 

2. I get the Harper comparison to a degree. But it is important to stress that Bryant is older than Harper. And Harper's 2012 rookie season may still end up being a better season that Bryant's 2015 as Bryant's BABIP comes down to a sustainable level.

 

I've never seen a guy with the athletic ability of Braun give up on so many balls hit over his head that seem catchable. I guess he's trying to preserve himself which isn't a bad thing but it's more noticeable this year that he never goes near the wall on anything but very, very high fly balls. Ironically Upton did it last night on a ball Braun hit off the base of the wall.

[Boomer5]

Braun turned himself into a pretty good LF and to be fair, we screwed with him by playing him in RF. Part because of Khrush's limitations, part because they could do with him what they wanted after the PED thing.

 

If they really want to ride out the extension for whatever reason, they need to move him back to LF, since taking out Davis' bat doesnt matter at this point.

[Boomer5]

Braun turned himself into a pretty good LF and to be fair, we screwed with him by playing him in RF. Part because of Khrush's limitations, part because they could do with him what they wanted after the PED thing.

 

If they really want to ride out the extension for whatever reason, they need to move him back to LF, since taking out Davis' bat doesnt matter at this point.

 

I love when I'm proven wrong so emphatically.

[torts]

My question was when do the 2015 terms stop and when do the 2016 terms kick in.

 

Day after the conclusion of the world series

[tmwiese55]

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2015/8/9/9123185/why-ryan-braun-could-be-a-shrewd-off-season-trade-target

 

Stumbled across this today. Seems some still think he's a good player. Not sure the line of thinking in the article as it is basically saying he'd be a good guy to get for a team looking to compete in 2017 like Oakland, which would apply to MKE too.

[Boomer5]

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2015/8/9/9123185/why-ryan-braun-could-be-a-shrewd-off-season-trade-target

 

Stumbled across this today. Seems some still think he's a good player. Not sure the line of thinking in the article as it is basically saying he'd be a good guy to get for a team looking to compete in 2017 like Oakland, which would apply to MKE too.

 

Braun is still a tradeable asset, though Im not sure Oakland in particular would want anything to do with that contract, even if Milwaukee kicked in the $30M.

[CheezWizHed]

Seems some still think he's a good player.

 

He IS a good player. His 900+OPS days are probably gone, but he is still a 850 OPS type player and borderline All-star OF. In the post PEDs era, a 850 OPS is actually pretty good. He is currently 14th for MLB OFers in OPS. (If you want to be depressed, just look that Nelson Cruz, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley and Geraldo Parra are all above him)

 

At his salary, I'm not sure how many people will go after him for a trade. But he still is a good player.

[Boomer5]

Seems some still think he's a good player.

 

He IS a good player. His 900+OPS days are probably gone, but he is still a 850 OPS type player and borderline All-star OF. In the post PEDs era, a 850 OPS is actually pretty good. He is currently 14th for MLB OFers in OPS. (If you want to be depressed, just look that Nelson Cruz, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley and Geraldo Parra are all above him)

 

At his salary, I'm not sure how many people will go after him for a trade. But he still is a good player.

 

The key word is GOOD. Not great.

 

I would agree. He is a good player. If he was playing Left, I would probably just leave him there and ride out his contract, knowing that while he isn't worth it, he wont kill you. In right, he is just a guy. Thats not entirely fair because he is there because the team made him move there. But as they say, it is what it is.

 

My issue with him - on the field - is that I think he will look a lot like Soriano's big contract in his last 2-3 years as his body continues to break down. Id love to unload him before we have a $20M part time player.

[sveumrules]

As was pointed out earlier in the thread, with offense trending downward league wide an 850 OPS ain't what it used to be.

 

Along those same lines, 20 million bucks also ain't what it used to be. At this point there are 41 players slated to make 20 million or more for the 2016 season.

[Boomer5]

As was pointed out earlier in the thread, with offense trending downward league wide an 850 OPS ain't what it used to be.

 

Along those same lines, 20 million bucks also ain't what it used to be. At this point there are 41 players slated to make 20 million or more for the 2016 season.

 

While both are true statements, its pretty clear the Brewers wouldn't have offered the extension had they had all the information, and Braun wouldnt have accepted had he known they would be in full rebuild mode now.

 

Back to on the field, in 2012 he was a 987 OPS guy, today he is 823 and playing a position where he isn't really all that good, though that isnt his fault.

 

If he stays at 820 for the better part of the contract, it's not disastrous based on inflation, but it wasn't the point of the extension.

[CheezWizHed]

If he stays at 820 for the better part of the contract, it's not disastrous based on inflation, but it wasn't the point of the extension.

 

I don't think anyone thought Braun was going to be 900+ OPS for the last years of his contract (even ignoring his PEDs or the general decline in offense in the league). You pay the tail end to get the main years. Still, its hard to predict if he will end like AROD or Soriano...

 

If he can hit 800+ OPS for the rest of his career, his contract will be an unmitigated success! That is still in the top 50% of all OFers this year.

[tmwiese55]

Right, if that is the case. I'd say this biggest problem would be the two lost years in 2013 and 2014 in his prime than the late years. Well I guess they didn't have to pay him in 2013 but that was one of the big years we were supposed to get in return for the backend. And 2014 was an injury, it happens.

[Boomer5]

If he stays at 820 for the better part of the contract, it's not disastrous based on inflation, but it wasn't the point of the extension.

 

I don't think anyone thought Braun was going to be 900+ OPS for the last years of his contract (even ignoring his PEDs or the general decline in offense in the league). You pay the tail end to get the main years. Still, its hard to predict if he will end like AROD or Soriano...

 

If he can hit 800+ OPS for the rest of his career, his contract will be an unmitigated success! That is still in the top 50% of all OFers this year.

 

As was already stated, what will be the main years of the extension? His last elite year was 2012 with no real sign we will ever see that again. 13 and 14 were washouts and 15 is just Good. Teams seem to understand the last few years are good will towards the front end elite years, of which we haven't seen that return.

 

Its not my money, but I think its fair to say had Braun been honest, the Brewers wouldnt have given him the extension.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he stays at 820 for the better part of the contract, it's not disastrous based on inflation, but it wasn't the point of the extension.

 

I don't think anyone thought Braun was going to be 900+ OPS for the last years of his contract (even ignoring his PEDs or the general decline in offense in the league). You pay the tail end to get the main years. Still, its hard to predict if he will end like AROD or Soriano...

 

If he can hit 800+ OPS for the rest of his career, his contract will be an unmitigated success! That is still in the top 50% of all OFers this year.

 

It was pretty much the consensus that Braun would remain at or near his peak longer than Fielder and certainly to age 33 or 34. That certainly isn't the case in 2015. Braun's trend is downward.

[tmwiese55]

He should have. Forgetting all the PED stuff I wonder what he'd be doing without the thumb problem, we'll never know because he'll probably never be fully healed from it. Best year was in 2012 and was again in 2013 until the injury hit him, never been the same since. Who knows what portion is on account of thumb and what on not being able to use any extra supplements to stay fresh, recover, etc. Seems to me the correlation is more on the thumb than not being able to use PEDs. I think to a certain extent pitchers have figured out how to minimize him to by just pounding him low and outside (I don't know why they don't do this to every major hitter and just force them to go oppo), which he really helped by chasing the slider way too much last year and up until May this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm sure hitting in front of Prince Fielder had something to do with it? I'm sure there's a way to prove this, number of strikes he saw back then vs now but I won't take the time to look it up.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If you have to pay $30mm to get rid of him, would you rather have Braun at $75mm or his replacement?

[Boomer5]

If you have to pay $30mm to get rid of him, would you rather have Braun at $75mm or his replacement?

 

Great question. To make a trade, both sides need to see more value on their side.

 

I am assuming that Braun's last two years will be pretty bad, so Id suggest a 820 the next 3 years arent going to be all that valuable to the Brewers given their current state. As it is, if the team were to make a MVP as of July 31, Braun would have been number 3 behind Jungmann and Parra. He is arguably the equal of Lind, who isn't on a $105M contract.

 

A team that has a 2016-2017 window might have a lot more need for a 820 guy than us.

 

I am assuming (theres that word again) that a Tulo package is available for us in return for Braun. We take back a shorter term contract and one elite prospect +

[MrTPlush]

That is the problem though. There isn't a Tulo package on the other end and that is what people should assume. We could pay money or take a iffy Reyes like contract and still not get an elite prospect. Tulowitzki has a lot more value on and off the field compared to Braun.

 

Not to mention trading Braun would be incredibly difficult unless it happens before the end of the year. He can either exercise his no trade clause or demand something like that 2021 option being picked up after the year finishes.