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The New Acquisitions: Where They Fall on Our Top Prospects List, and What They Mean for the System Overall


gregmag

I had to write this down to keep track. The haul so far, in what seems to be approximate order of quality (I could be wrong):

 

Brett Phillips, cf, 21 (5-30-94), AA

Domingo Santana, rf, 23 (8-5-92), AAA

Josh Hader, lhsp, 21 (4-7-94), AA

Zach Davies, rhsp, 22 (2-2-93), AAA

Malik Collymore, 2b/of, 20 (4-29-95), R+

Adrian Houser, rhsp, 22 (2-2-93), AA

Yhonathan Barrios, rhrp, 23 (12-1-91), AAA

 

It seems pretty clear that Mark A. reached a compromise on rebuilding. Get young guys with upside, but guys who aren't four years away. I'd say that's at least reasonable, given that (a) we already have some decent young talent, especially in the rotation, on the MLB roster, and (b) our top prospects list was weighted toward the lower levels.

 

Anyway, I'm interested in two questions: Where do these guys fall on our prospect list, and where does the system rank now? I don't have great answers, and I haven't kept up with the minors overall lately, so I'm mainly interested in what others have to say.

 

My wild shot at the rankings:

 

2. Phillips

4. Santana

5. Hader

8. Davies

24. Collymore

26. Houser

 

My thinking: Phillips is pretty clear. Santana has gotten a lot of iffy reviews, but he's been a top-100 guy, his numbers are impressive, and his power upside is hugely valuable. Hader has to be our top pitching prospect now; he's Medeiros at a higher level of experience. Davies is an upper-level guy with great results in AAA. Do you take him over Devin Williams or Lopez? I compromised. Collymore has intriguing enough upside to put him ahead of somebody like Rivera, but I don't think I take him over Gatewood just yet. Houser looks like a bit of a mess, but he still has mid-rotation upside, which not a lot of our lower level guys do. Could Barrios sneak onto the bottom of the list? A year ago maybe, but not now IMHO. He seems like a Magnifico type, and those guys don't sniff our list now.

 

Where does this leave our system? Hell if I know. Has to be upper half, right? 12-15?

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I think Phillips is the only impact player in that bunch, he's right there with Arcia.

 

As to the rest, it's completely subjective, some good depth but no one I'd be convinced today would make a major impact. I'm not a big believer in Santana's swing, he could be like LaPorta, I understand what people are excited about though. He's a much more well rounded player than AJ Reed, but Reed is literally the only all bat guy I'd be excited about acquiring.

 

Hader is the most intriguing pitcher in the bunch, I'd put him roughly on the same level as Jorge Lopez.

 

Davies is going to be a finesse righty, nothing wrong with that, he'll contribute in some manner.

 

Houser doesn't have anything that excites me.

 

Collymore was a fringe top #30 prospect in the Cards' system (#27) and hasn't put up a good year. He's an athlete but hasn't made it out of rookie ball in 3 years. Tough to get excited about that but anything for Broxton is better than nothing.

 

I said before that Barrios is Damien Magnifico without the development time... a big arm who needs to learn control, command, and some secondary pitches. That's a tall order in a short window, and I don't really see him as a rule 5 guy because every MLB hitter can hit a FB or they wouldn't be at MLB, what I mean is that he's already 23 and starting over. That's a tough hill to climb.

 

As to your rankings, everyone after Phillips is ranked too high. Collymore and Houser wouldn't make my list. Looking at the community list Santana probably slots in front of Reed, Hader after Wagner, and Davies around Cravy some place. I know I said I'd put Hader on the same level as Lopez but I think Jorge is ranked way too high on the community list. Though again when you're ranking 3ish pitchers is going to be a pretty subjective endeavor so there will be volatility in the result.

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After I posted, I figured I had ranked the two big pitchers too high. You make fair points about the others, but so far I'll stick with where I've got them. I can't see ranking guys like Taylor and Coulter above Santana. The bottom two are lottery tickets, but they appear to have higher upside than the guys at the bottom of the current community list. I know I may be overrating Collymore, but he isn't 21 yet; I'll take a flyer on his figuring it out in the next couple of years.
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Phillips is a stud, a great "get" for the Brewers, he is rightfully slotted as the #2 prospect in the system. Trading this type of player would cause this board to explode with anger.

 

Santana is a real wildcard - it's not every day you see a guy with a high OBP, good power, and that many Ks in one package. You'd think that much swing and miss would knock down the OBP, or that the OBP might indicate an advanced hitting approach, but this is a player who Kd 14 times in 39 ABs with Houston this year. Defensively, I think he can handle left or right, he's either going to be a run producer or a curiosity who hits some real bombs on his way back to AAA each year. I'd have taken him too, because he has very real power potential, but he's no sure thing.

 

Josh Hader is an interesting pitcher, he has a good chance to make it in the big leagues. He may wind up in the bullpen, but that's ok, and it's not a certainty yet either.

 

Adrian Houser, I'll root for him every step of the way, but it won't surprise me if he never sees Milwaukee.

 

Zach Davies is the best pitcher the Brewers got this deadline, he should stick for a while in the big leagues. He reminds me of Mike Fiers - he doesn't throw hard, he'll rely on command and deception to get hitters out. Just like Fiers, I think there will be debate as to whether he belongs at the back end of a rotation, or in a bullpen, but he'll get the opportunity to prove he's a starter ... and maybe he is.

 

Malik Collymore, is an athlete much more than a ballplayer at this point. He's a true project, with some talent - the odds are long against him reaching the big leagues, aka, exactly the sort you'd get for Broxton at this point.

 

Yhonathan Barrios is a pitching version of Collymore - he's a talented, but extremely raw young man with some potential. Both Barrios and Collymore are worth taking a shot with, but both are longshots.

 

In Arcia, Phillips, and Trent Clark, the Brewers have three young players who truly could become big league stars. Behind them, they have a pile of players who have skills to make it, but still a reason why they may not. It stands to reason then, that some will ... some won't, but there's much better depth now.

 

Gilbert Lara is obviously a "should become a star" in the eyes of the Brewers, or they wouldn't have paid him like they did. He may very well reach that level, but at his age, with so little to go on, I'm not saying that yet. There's a good chance he's the team's fourth best prospect, but I think simply anointing a teenager based on his signing bonus is illogical.

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Here is a visual for those who like lists with my best guess and the input of other posters.

 

#1 - Orlando Arcia, SS, Biloxi (AA), age 20.

.309 BA, .353 OBP, .808 OPS.

 

#2 - Brett Phillips, cf, 21 (5-30-94), AA

 

#3 - Gilbert Lara, SS, ARZ (Rookie), age 17.

.307 BA, .336 OBP, .732 OPS.

 

#4 - Kodi Medeiros, LP, Wisconsin (A-), age 19.

76.1 IP, 43 BB, 77K, 4.13 ERA, 1.270 WHIP.

736 pts - 35 of 35 ballots

 

#5 - Domigo Santana, rf, 23 (8-5-92), AAA

 

#6 - Clint Coulter, OF, Brevard County (A+), age 21.

.257 BA, .341 OBP, .762 OPS.

 

#7 - Trent Clark, OF, ARZ (Rookie), age 18.

.293 BA, .397 OBP, .863 OPS.

 

#8 - Jorge Lopez, RP, Biloxi (AA), age 22.

96.2 IP, 36BB, 92K, 2.70 ERA, 1.138 WHIP.

 

#9 - Tyrone Taylor, CF, Biloxi (AA), age 21.

.259 BA, .312 OBP, .647 OPS.

 

#10 Josh Hader, lhsp, 21 (4-7-94), AA

 

#11 - Monte Harrison, OF, Helena, (Rookie), age 19.

.299 BA, .410 OBP, .884 OPS, 14 SB - Helena

.148 BA, .246 OBP, .493 OPS - Wisconsin

 

#12 - Devin Williams, RP, Wisconsin (A-), age 20.

62.1 IP, 28BB, 61K, 3.18 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, only 1 HR allowed

 

#13 - Michael Reed, OF, Biloxi (AA), age 22.

.273 BA, .374 OBP, .419 OPS, 23 SB.

 

#14 - Taylor Jungmann, RP, MIL, age 25.

53 IP, 15BB, 39K, 2.04 ERA, 1.019 WHIP - Milwaukee

59.1 IP, 29BB, 54K, 6.37 ERA, 1.517 WHIP - Colorado Springs

 

#15 - Zach Davies, rhsp, 22 (2-2-93), AAA

 

#16 - Jacob Gatewood, SS, Helena (Rookie), age 19.

.232 BA, .285 OBP, .722 OPS - Helena

.227 BA, .288 OBP, .592 OPS - Wisconsin

 

#17 - Tyler Wagner, RP, Biloxi (AA), age 24.

99.2 IP, 28BB, 75K, 2.53 ERA, 1.154 WHIP.

 

#18 - Nathan Kirby, LP, age 21.

 

#19 - Tyler Cravy, RP, Colorado Springs (AAA), age 26.

15 IP, 4BB, 9K, 3.60 ERA, 1.267 WHIP - Milwaukee

78.1 IP, 26BB, 66K, 3.79 ERA, 1.226 WHIP.

 

#20 - Marcos Diplan, RP, Helena (Rookie), age 18.

24 IP, 7BB, 26 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.208 WHIP

 

#21 - Cody Ponce, RP, Wisconsin, age 21.

17 IP, 2BB, 14K, 2.65 ERA, 0.882 WHIP - Helena and Wisconsin combined

 

#22 - Victor Roache, OF, Biloxi (AA), age 23.

.220 BA, .309 OBP, .711 OPS - Biloxi

.259 BA, .326 OBP, .773 OPS - Brevard County

 

#23 - Demi Orimoloye, OF, ARZ (Rookie), age 18.

.328 BA, .348 OBP, .942 OPS.

 

#24 - Corey Knebel, RP, Milwaukee, age 23.

23.1 IP, 8BB, 22K, 3.09 ERA, 1.200 WHIP - Milwaukee

15.1 IP, 7BB, 22K, 4.70 ERA, 1.370 WHIP - Colorado Springs

 

#25 - Taylor Williams, RP, age 24.

Has not played in 2015.

200 points - 21 of 35 ballots

 

#26 - Yadiel Rivera, INF, Colorado Springs (AAA), age 23.

.250 BA, .281 OBP, .611 OPS - Colorado Springs

.322 BA, .366 OBP, .818 OPS - Biloxi

 

#27 - Cy Sneed, RHP, Brevard County (A+), age 22.

25 IP, 2BB, 17K, 2.88 ERA, 1.080 WHIP - Brevard County

77.1IP, 17BB, 67K, 2.68 ERA, 1.125 WHIP - Wisconsin

 

#28 - Carlos Leal, C, Wisconsin (A-), age 24.

.314 BA, .376 OBP, .799 OPS.

 

#29 - Jorge Ortega - RHP, Brevard County (A+), age 22.

106 IP, 8BB, 53K, 2.21 ERA, 0.981 WHIP.

 

 

The Rest

 

Wei-Chung Wang - 71

Troy Stokes - 51

Brandon Diaz - 47

Chris McFarland - 46

Joantgel Segovia - 44

Jason Rogers - 41

Nick Ramirez - 37

David Denson - 36

Hobbs Johnson - 29

Brent Suter - 28

Damien Magnifico - 27

Miguel Diaz - 26

Blake Allemand - 23

David Goforth - 18

Adrian Houser, rhsp, 22 (2-2-93), AA

Yhonathan Barrios, rhrp, 23 (12-1-91), AAA15

Nash Walters - 18

Kyle Wren - 15

Tyrone Perry - 15

Tucker Neuhaus - 13

Dustin Demuth - 11

David Burkhalter - 11

Brooks Hall - 9

Ariel Pena - 7

Omar Cotto - 6

Franly Mallen - 6

Malik Collymore, 2b/of, 20 (4-29-95), R+

Yerison Pena - 5

Nathan Orf - 5

Javi Salas - 2

Angel Ventura - 2

Austin Ross - 1

Adam Weisenberger - 1

Carlos Luna - 1

Clint Terry - 1

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Baseball America released their Ranking of All the Prospects Traded at the Deadline written by J.J. Cooper. It literally lists every prospect traded leading up to the deadline, so it gives a thorough recap of the talent changing systems.

 

MLB.com published Ranking the Best Prospects Who Were Traded written by Jim Callis. It ranks the top 20 prospects changing systems.

 

 

Spoiler Alert: Brett Phillips was rated #3 prospect traded by Baseball America and the #2 prospect traded by MLB.com.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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I think Brett Phillips is a better prospect than Orlando Arcia, most others probably disagree.

 

Also think Domingo Santana is being severely underrated on the national stage. He's not going to translate his .426 OBP in AAA to the major leagues due to the swing-and-miss issues, but he has a cannon arm and huge offensive potential. Seems like a young/cheap Cespedes to me.

 

My new top-5 would be:

 

1) Phillips

2) Medeiros

3) Arcia

4) Santana

5) Clark

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Baseball America released their Ranking of All the Prospects Traded at the Deadline written by J.J. Cooper. It literally lists every prospect traded leading up to the deadline, so it gives a thorough recap of the talent changing systems.

 

MLB.com published Ranking the Best Prospects Who Were Traded written by Jim Callis. It ranks the top 20 prospects changing systems.

 

 

Spoiler Alert: Brett Phillips was rated #3 prospect traded by Baseball America and the #2 prospect traded by MLB.com.

 

So Baseball America ranked Santana #71 overall coming into the season, but has rewarded his .320/.426/.582/1.008 batting line as a 22-year-old in AAA (and his respectable .771 OPS in 42 PA in MLB) by bumping him out of the top-100, out of the "near top-100," and half-way down the "organizational top-10" list? Cool, thanks guys.

 

We get it, he strikes out a lot. If he didn't he would be a top-10 prospect in baseball. The strikeouts don't seem to affect the praise heaped on Cubs prospects...

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I hope the Brewers stick Collymore back at 2B as Wisconsin looks to be loaded in the OF next year with Segovia, Harrison, Clark, Orimoloye, and Pierre as possibilities in the OF. I don't think there is enough playing time just for those 5. Maybe Pierre and Orimoloye don't make it to Wisconsin next year but that is still 3 players that should be getting the majority of the starts in the OF. That would make Collymore the 4th OF but I would rather him play 2B and sub in at the OF spot than just having him play the OF which I would fear would be the case if he starts out next year in Wisconsin.

 

Not that Collymore deserves to be over the others in the list but he should be at least tried back at 2B for a year or two than having him sit in the OF. I would rather see what he can do with some more repetition as he is extremely athletic and he reminds me of Rickie Weeks at his age. Collymore doesn't have the hit tool that Weeks had coming out of college but he definitely has the same type of power that Weeks showed when he was drafted. He is also a lot more athletic than Weeks was.

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Baseball America released their Ranking of All the Prospects Traded at the Deadline written by J.J. Cooper. It literally lists every prospect traded leading up to the deadline, so it gives a thorough recap of the talent changing systems.

 

MLB.com published Ranking the Best Prospects Who Were Traded written by Jim Callis. It ranks the top 20 prospects changing systems.

 

 

Spoiler Alert: Brett Phillips was rated #3 prospect traded by Baseball America and the #2 prospect traded by MLB.com.

 

Only 5 outfielders changed hands and we got 3 of them. Huh.

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Phillips is a stud, a great "get" for the Brewers, he is rightfully slotted as the #2 prospect in the system. Trading this type of player would cause this board to explode with anger.

 

Santana is a real wildcard - it's not every day you see a guy with a high OBP, good power, and that many Ks in one package. You'd think that much swing and miss would knock down the OBP, or that the OBP might indicate an advanced hitting approach, but this is a player who Kd 14 times in 39 ABs with Houston this year. Defensively, I think he can handle left or right, he's either going to be a run producer or a curiosity who hits some real bombs on his way back to AAA each year. I'd have taken him too, because he has very real power potential, but he's no sure thing.

 

Josh Hader is an interesting pitcher, he has a good chance to make it in the big leagues. He may wind up in the bullpen, but that's ok, and it's not a certainty yet either.

 

Adrian Houser, I'll root for him every step of the way, but it won't surprise me if he never sees Milwaukee.

 

Zach Davies is the best pitcher the Brewers got this deadline, he should stick for a while in the big leagues. He reminds me of Mike Fiers - he doesn't throw hard, he'll rely on command and deception to get hitters out. Just like Fiers, I think there will be debate as to whether he belongs at the back end of a rotation, or in a bullpen, but he'll get the opportunity to prove he's a starter ... and maybe he is.

 

Malik Collymore, is an athlete much more than a ballplayer at this point. He's a true project, with some talent - the odds are long against him reaching the big leagues, aka, exactly the sort you'd get for Broxton at this point.

 

Yhonathan Barrios is a pitching version of Collymore - he's a talented, but extremely raw young man with some potential. Both Barrios and Collymore are worth taking a shot with, but both are longshots.

 

In Arcia, Phillips, and Trent Clark, the Brewers have three young players who truly could become big league stars. Behind them, they have a pile of players who have skills to make it, but still a reason why they may not. It stands to reason then, that some will ... some won't, but there's much better depth now.

 

Gilbert Lara is obviously a "should become a star" in the eyes of the Brewers, or they wouldn't have paid him like they did. He may very well reach that level, but at his age, with so little to go on, I'm not saying that yet. There's a good chance he's the team's fourth best prospect, but I think simply anointing a teenager based on his signing bonus is illogical.

 

The trade deadline alone was the equivalent of having an extra great draft.

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Ok, so I chose this weekend of all weekends to go camping at a location that barely had any cell phone coverage. I'm not sure what was worse, reading about the new prospects on my phone on top of a ridge or the looks my wife gave me from walking around with my phone in the air to get coverage... :)

 

So, one thing that struck me about the people we got is that they seem to be younger versions of what we have (maybe with a bit more upside on the OFers). Obviously, this isn't aligned with who was traded for whom, but more on what we ended up with. Also, I'm ignoring Ramirez/Broxton because they were mostly "dump" trades and we really weren't giving up much.

 

 

Carlos Gomez

High defense, good power for CF. All star, possibly peaked with bat (800+ last two years, 746 this year). FA in 2017. 29 years old.

 

Replaced with:Brett Phillips

Average defense at CF, strong arm. Ranked 39 on MLB top 100. Career OPS of 860 is driven by his breakout last year (905) and this year (920). At AA now and is 3 years younger (21) than average. Doesn't need to join 40-man until after the 2016 season.

 

So, it looks to me that Phillips will exceed Gomez with the bat (he took SOOOO long to figure out how to hit), but not defensively. I can see a much longer succession of 800+ OPS from Phillips. If they were the same age, they would probably ranked about equals.

 

Mike Fiers

Soft tossing, high K starting pitcher. True pitcher that maximizes his skill. Peak at a #3 SP. Already at 30 years old, but under control until 2019

 

Replaced with:Zach Davies

Ranked #11 on Brewer's Top 30. Under sized RH-SP with average FB, 3 pitch arsenal and good control. 3.47 MiLB ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. 2.84 ERA this year at AAA, where he is 5 years younger (22) than average. Seems to succeed despite his scouting report. Will join 40-man at the end of this year.

 

Josh Hader

Tall and skinny LHP SP that has seen a bump in velocity since being drafted. Low angle slot produces lots of Ks (9.7/9IP), but lots of BBs(3.9/9IP). Has career MiLB ERA of 2.97 and WHIP of 1.2. All numbers come 2.4-4.4 under the age average at each level (currently -3.5 at AA: age 21). MLB ranks him just above Tyler Wagner at 15 in the Brewer's system. Doesn't need to join the 40 man until after the 2016 season.

 

Fiers looks like a better SP than Davies, but they profile very similarly (almost eerily similar). But we also have Hader to mitigate that risk. His ceiling is probably around a 3 (like Fiers).

 

Geraldo Parra

Career .737 OPS. Ideal 4th Ofer, passable starting LF/RF (or temp in CF) having a career year (878). 28 years old, FA at the end of this year.

 

Replaced with: Domingo Santana

Ranked 87 on MLB top 100. Right fielder with strong arm and huge bat. Has burnt 1 option this year (unsure about 2014), but still has rookie status. Career OPS: 854 despite being 3.4-5.6 years younger than average at each MiLB stop. Hitting 1.008 OPS this year at 22 years old. Big concern is high K rate (34% in MiLB). Branyon reborn? 3TO lives on!

 

Santana could end up being MUCH better than Parra on the OF. The risk is on his K rate, but I'll happily take a 33% K rate if his OPS is 900+.

 

The throw-in:

Adrian Houser

Large RHP with good FB/CB, but lesser control. Has ok, but not great career MilB stats (ERA: 4.30, WHIP 1.366, K/9:8.0, BB/9: 3.4). But still has been younger than the average at each stop (0.9-2.6, Currently 22 and -2.5 at AA). Needs to be added to 40-man this year.

 

One odd thing that I've noticed is that Houston seems to really push their prospects in terms of age. All of the 4 we got are not only young for the level but VERY young (3+ years under).

 

Overall, I do really like this trade. I was always a big Fiers fan, but at 30, we most likely traded him at his peak. The two SPs that we got (Davies/Hader) don't really improve our current pitching at AA, AAA, or MLB (a bunch of #3-5SPs), but I guess competition and depth is good too. :) But I'm quite intrigued by the OFers. Could be interesting with an OF of Reed-Phillips-Santana in the future.

 

Edit: A little formatting for clarity

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If Santana can carry a 340 OBP to go along with this other strong tools I really don't care how many times he strikes out to be honest with you. I think he absolutely will be a middle of the order hitter for the Brewers for hopefully a long time.
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If Santana can carry a 340 OBP to go along with this other strong tools I really don't care how many times he strikes out to be honest with you. I think he absolutely will be a middle of the order hitter for the Brewers for hopefully a long time.

 

Baez was similar, he went to the MLB and struck out 40% of the time and he's still waiting on a 2nd try. Joc Pederson is striking out 30% of the time, hitting very good though. Springer has been great with 30% K rate. If he can keep it under 30% I think he can be fine maybe even good.

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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Santana reminds me of Wily Mo Pena and Juan Francisco.

 

But now is the time to give the guy a try. We aren't going to be in the playoff race for the next couple of years. It's the perfect time to let a guy like Santana show us if he's part of the long term future.

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If Santana can carry a 340 OBP to go along with this other strong tools I really don't care how many times he strikes out to be honest with you. I think he absolutely will be a middle of the order hitter for the Brewers for hopefully a long time.

 

Baez was similar, he went to the MLB and struck out 40% of the time and he's still waiting on a 2nd try. Joc Pederson is striking out 30% of the time, hitting very good though. Springer has been great with 30% K rate. If he can keep it under 30% I think he can be fine maybe even good.

 

One thing to add about Baez is that he only had a 833 OPS at AAA before his promotion last year. He was simply too young and raw.

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We still lack an ace, which I'm hoping can be solved in next years draft, but the system has come a long way in the past two years. I'm hopeful the Brewers don't hold these guys back in the minors because of average to below average major leaguers like Davis and Segura. I'd love to see the option on Lind picked up then have him traded and Braun moved to first to solve that problem for a few years while also opening up RF for Santana.
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We still lack an ace, which I'm hoping can be solved in next years draft, but the system has come a long way in the past two years. I'm hopeful the Brewers don't hold these guys back in the minors because of average to below average major leaguers like Davis and Segura. I'd love to see the option on Lind picked up then have him traded and Braun moved to first to solve that problem for a few years while also opening up RF for Santana.

 

Nelson is absolutely emerging as a legit ace. I live out of market, and trust me, the ex-players in the booths for other teams talk about him in those terms.

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Quote from Baseball America's John Manuel in this recent Tom H piece:

 

"It's gone from a middle of the pack (farm) system to a top five or 10 system, and that's with last year's boom-or-bust guys all having decent to middling seasons. Pretty amazing."

 

This is an incredible turn around. I have been as tough on them as anyone, but this is really impressive.

 

You have to figure that the 2016 draft will bring in a must watch caliber player. The Luc trade will bring in a Gomez package.

 

Well done. The future went from a Herb Kohl style team to a young Bucks model.

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We still lack an ace, which I'm hoping can be solved in next years draft, but the system has come a long way in the past two years. I'm hopeful the Brewers don't hold these guys back in the minors because of average to below average major leaguers like Davis and Segura. I'd love to see the option on Lind picked up then have him traded and Braun moved to first to solve that problem for a few years while also opening up RF for Santana.

 

Nelson is absolutely emerging as a legit ace. I live out of market, and trust me, the ex-players in the booths for other teams talk about him in those terms.

 

I think he was referring to no ace in the minor league system. As for Nelson, still a long way to call him an ace. Even if he finishes like the last couple of months, he would need to show it in 2016 for that type of title.

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