Should Khris Davis be traded?

[markedman5]

And hits 2 more today.........will be an interesting off season.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you are a "one trick pony" and that trick is that you are one of the top half dozen HR hitters in the game, you have plenty of value. Ben Oglivie was not close to being the best all around hitter on those great Brewer teams but his ability to turn a game around with one swing made him a key piece.

[MNBrew]

You're right, Briggs. The difference with Ben Oglivie, though, is that he was a high RBI guy, too. Davis has only 65 RBIs to go w/ his 26 HRs. His success rate in terms of driving guys in when he doesn't hit a homer isn't great -- not Mark Reynolds proportions circa 2014, but not light years better, either.

[MrTPlush]

He isn't driving in enough people? What would he be on pace for if he had a healthy season? 85-90? I don't know that seems pretty respectable if you ask me. For a guy who missed a large amount of time and was on an offensive black hole for a couple months his RBI numbers are pretty reasonable.

 

A .245/.320 split is good enough with the power he has. He hits the ball enough to utilize his power and that is all he needs. I think after today his OPS+ is north of 120...legit bat right there.

[DHonks]

At this point I have no problem with Davis, Santana, and Braun in the OF next year. But if the value for Davis is there in a trade, I'd have no qualms making it.

[homer]

What a difference a couple of months makes. OPS is now at .830 overall and .869 in the second half. I think you hang on to him for another year and flip him in July if need be.

[tmwiese55]

Agree with the last few posters. there's no rush to trade him but if you get something you really like you probably take it just to be safe.

[3and2Fastball]

He's blocking Domingo Santana. He's coming off of a 27 HR season so he actually has trade value. His OBP is too low. He absolutely should be traded before his arby years kick in prior to the 2017 season. More than likely he should be traded this offseason

[Jenkins5]

You're right, Briggs. The difference with Ben Oglivie, though, is that he was a high RBI guy, too. Davis has only 65 RBIs to go w/ his 26 HRs. His success rate in terms of driving guys in when he doesn't hit a homer isn't great -- not Mark Reynolds proportions circa 2014, but not light years better, either.

 

Two issues about judging his RBI total

 

1) Davis really only played a little over half the season as an everyday player. Parra replaced often and he had the injury that kept in out for an extended amount of time.

 

2) Brewers don't get on base period. Braun & Lind are in same boat where if they were on a team that had guys capable for getting on base, they'd have over 100rbis. You got Segura and Gennett sitting at the top of the order repping sub .300 obp. Perez has a solid .270 obp.... Simply enough, it is hard to drive in guys when they are not on base.

 

243 PA with bases empty 17 HR/RBI's

 

197 PA with men on base 10 HRs 49 RBIs

-120 of those PA's with men in scoring position where he hit only 5hrs and had 38 Rbis

 

He has 27 HRs and 66 RBIs in 440 PA in only 108 starts..... not too bad

[logan82]

You're right, Briggs. The difference with Ben Oglivie, though, is that he was a high RBI guy, too. Davis has only 65 RBIs to go w/ his 26 HRs. His success rate in terms of driving guys in when he doesn't hit a homer isn't great -- not Mark Reynolds proportions circa 2014, but not light years better, either.

 

Two issues about judging his RBI total

 

1) Davis really only played a little over half the season as an everyday player. Parra replaced often and he had the injury that kept in out for an extended amount of time.

 

2) Brewers don't get on base period. Braun & Lind are in same boat where if they were on a team that had guys capable for getting on base, they'd have over 100rbis. You got Segura and Gennett sitting at the top of the order repping sub .300 obp. Perez has a solid .270 obp.... Simply enough, it is hard to drive in guys when they are not on base.

 

243 PA with bases empty 17 HR/RBI's

 

197 PA with men on base 10 HRs 49 RBIs

-120 of those PA's with men in scoring position where he hit only 5hrs and had 38 Rbis

 

He has 27 HRs and 66 RBIs in 440 PA in only 108 starts..... not too bad

Don't bother. RBI's have been explained to him several times. He loves them anyway.

[MNBrew]

Patronizing & presumptuous remarks, Logan. You don't know me or the full extent of my thinking.

 

I understand that discussion, but that doesn't make me wrong if I still don't align my view with yours. There are multiple ways to view things, just like whether Davis merits trading or not.

 

At some point in executing your offense, runs need to score. Someone needs to drive the runners in. If you're not driving guys in when you're batting with runners on base, you're contributing more constructively if you're at least getting on base yourself. Before Davis got super hot, he wasn't doing a terribly good job of doing either, his injury & time out of the lineup due to Parra starting notwithstanding.

 

Maybe this is an apt comparison, or maybe it's not . . . Just how good Davis is is a question that inversely parallels the question of the 2014 Brewers: Were they really not too good, a superbly flawed team, which their terrible slump only finally bore out? Or were they pretty darn good but just blew it and blew it badly? Because they ended so lousy, it seemed like the majority here were convinced the first 5 months were a mirage and the last month-plus was truth. Yet Davis did nothing too special until August, then went pretty nuts. So were the last 2 months a mirage, or were the previous 4 months the mirage (noting the injury & Parra factors)? Do you put your eggs in the basket of the large sample or just the most recent stretch?

 

(edit for spelling)

[MrTPlush]

Even if you want to judge someone based on RBIs Khris Davis is not that guy. If healthy he would have had 90+ RBI. How is that not enough to you? At the very least that is not a problem of any sort. Any guy pushing 90RBI on that garbage offense deserves a pat on the back.

 

I also don't see the risk here. Obviously he is a streaky type player, but he has now proven in over 1000ABs that he is an above average power hitter in the MLB. That is not a mystery at this point.

[Outlander]

So were the last 2 months a mirage, or were the previous 4 months the mirage (noting the injury & Parra factors)? Do you put your eggs in the basket of the large sample or just the most recent stretch?

The teams inquiring about him will be asking the same questions. If a team overvalues this smaller stretch and overpays then I am all in favor of trading him. Set the bar high and if they don't get it then see if he can replicate the success the first half of 2016 and if he does he will be a hot trade chip at the deadline or after the season.

[jerichoholicninja]

So were the last 2 months a mirage, or were the previous 4 months the mirage (noting the injury & Parra factors)? Do you put your eggs in the basket of the large sample or just the most recent stretch?

The teams inquiring about him will be asking the same questions. If a team overvalues this smaller stretch and overpays then I am all in favor of trading him. Set the bar high and if they don't get it then see if he can replicate the success the first half of 2016 and if he does he will be a hot trade chip at the deadline or after the season.

 

With this line of thinking we can't discount the 900+OPS he put up after Braun was suspended. When he gets regular playing time, he plays well.

[MNBrew]

Well, sometimes Davis plays well... Granted, he was out all of June and his July PT wasn't great due to Parra's incredible hot stretch, so those two months justifiably amount to little and thus are best just to ignore.

 

- He played mostly everyday in April & May. Results: 5 HR & 16 RBIs over 158 ABs (44 GP). ABs were pretty equal in April & May. In April he hit 1 HR & had 4 RBIs. Granted, the whole team was a disaster much of that stretch, but I don't think you can just blow off his contribution to the disaster.

 

- He played basically everyday from August 1 through the end of the season. Results: 20 HR & 44 RBIs in 201 ABs (58 GP). A very strong two month stretch.

 

Which two months, if either, do you put more stock in? If he's going to remain a Brewer, obviously we'd all hope something close to the latter is more the norm. Is he really the April/May guy, the August/September guy, or somewhere in the middle? No doubt the power potential AND reality are there. The question is, Is he enough more than just that to keep as part of the core or is he an appealing trade chip?

[JohnBriggs12]

Well, sometimes Davis plays well... Granted, he was out all of June and his July PT wasn't great due to Parra's incredible hot stretch, so those two months justifiably amount to little and thus are best just to ignore.

 

- He played mostly everyday in April & May. Results: 5 HR & 16 RBIs over 158 ABs (44 GP). ABs were pretty equal in April & May. In April he hit 1 HR & had 4 RBIs. Granted, the whole team was a disaster much of that stretch, but I don't think you can just blow off his contribution to the disaster.

 

- He played basically everyday from August 1 through the end of the season. Results: 20 HR & 44 RBIs in 201 ABs (58 GP). A very strong two month stretch.

 

Which two months, if either, do you put more stock in? If he's going to remain a Brewer, obviously we'd all hope something close to the latter is more the norm. Is he really the April/May guy, the August/September guy, or somewhere in the middle? No doubt the power potential AND reality are there. The question is, Is he enough more than just that to keep as part of the core or is he an appealing trade chip?

 

To answer your question, he's both. Davis has always had the power as evidenced by 60 career HR in his first 1,023 major league AB's. Like most power bats, the HR tend to come in bunches and I think that will always be true. This past season both his SO and BB rates went up. I fully believe he's capable of a 35+ HR season if healthy over a full season perhaps multiple such seasons, and with that should come pitchers approaching him more carefully and the opportunity to continue increasing his walk totals. If that happens his trade value, which is significant now, would rise even higher. With young outfielders close but not necessarily ready, why not just keep him another year or two, and then deal him? In a year or two, it might be advantageous and possible to deal him for established major league talent that fits a greater need rather than additional prospects. Either way, he's got tremendous value.

 

Davis is also one of those guys who could probably raise his BA by 30 or 40 points by sacrificing some of his power. But power in today's post PED era is pretty valuable.

[igor67]

The minor league and major league data certainly suggest 30+ HR power is legitimate. The profile of his tools also indicates he will probably have a fairly short peak. In looking at the month by month data, his BB rate was much higher in the early going. I think he was too passive in the early going, lost playing time and all of the struggles that go along with that, then he found a better balance (his walk rate was still higher in the second half then prior MLB seasons, but lower than the first few months). Given that and the fact he has shown he can be more patient, I'm somewhat optimistic that teams will pitch him more carefully next year and his BA will rise along with his walks. His second half pace would have netted him over 40HRs in a full season.

[danzig6767]

Well, sometimes Davis plays well... Granted, he was out all of June and his July PT wasn't great due to Parra's incredible hot stretch, so those two months justifiably amount to little and thus are best just to ignore.

 

- He played mostly everyday in April & May. Results: 5 HR & 16 RBIs over 158 ABs (44 GP). ABs were pretty equal in April & May. In April he hit 1 HR & had 4 RBIs. Granted, the whole team was a disaster much of that stretch, but I don't think you can just blow off his contribution to the disaster.

 

- He played basically everyday from August 1 through the end of the season. Results: 20 HR & 44 RBIs in 201 ABs (58 GP). A very strong two month stretch.

 

Which two months, if either, do you put more stock in?

Lots of hitters have good and bad months during a season, Davis is far from being alone in that.

 

When i look at him, i see a guy with a .809 OPS over 1029 at bats. My guess is that over say the next 2-3 seasons if his numbers were to be averaged out, an OPS a little over .800 would be his most likely landing spot. Have seasons where one year it falls a little under .800 and one or two more where it's in the .825-.850 range.

 

During those seasons he'll have some down months and better than normal months, just like most big league hitters have. Usually only the select special hitters are able to be consistently consistent, avoiding the type of slumps most non-elite hitters often go through because they aren't special.

 

Hitting baseballs vs MLB pitching is hard to do, even more so in today's game with so much quality pitching and bullpen specialization. It should be expected that a lot of hitters will struggle during stretches and potentially for a variety of reasons.