Should Khris Davis be traded?

[brewcrewdue80]

No. No I am not trading Davis for Santana/Hader. I am trading Santana/Hader to acquire Davis.

 

Got it?

 

I use Davis and Santana because they fit exactly where the argument is in value for him in trade by "Homers" And not realistically speaking like myself suggesting Kyle Wren..sorry should be a tad higher, but who is that? I think everyone else is a full step up.

 

I use Prospects in the Brewers system because I want to know it from the other side. If you were going to acquire Davis, what would you offer? I came up with the recent Santana and Hader acquisitions. So if the Brewers were to trade for Khris Davis, would you be happy to have sent Santana and Hader to acquire him?

 

I say, no way. and Would argue Hader alone is too much for Davis.

 

So tell me what is Davis' value in a trade? To me it certainly doesn't include a top 100 prospect as Santana and he's at #85 barely achieves that distinction.

[adambr2]

All the things that went through my mind in the 20 seconds after I saw this thread title :

 

1) "Wow, didn't we just acquire Santana? Flipped him for pitching? "

2) "Wait, is there another Khris Davis in MLB?"

3) "Maybe we traded Davis and this is a different Santana. "

4) "I'm so confused."

5) "Oh."

 

To answer the OP, I would guess his value lies either just inside or just outside a top 100 prospect. He has his deficiencies, but he has value. He's a cost controlled relatively young corner outfielder with a career OPS near .800.

 

Davis for Santana straight up is probably fair, I think. If I were a contending team that was trotting out Logan Schafer into LF every day, I'd be thrilled to get Davis.

[MrTPlush]

Khris Davis is worth that. It obviously takes the right team though too. The Brewers would not make sense as a fit for Davis as they would want the player with more control. If you are a power starved team with a painfully bad corner outfielder you would be drooling over a guy like Davis.

 

I don't really like the Santana example though. He is also a corner outfielder and MLB ready. Maybe a guy at a different position that is blocked makes more sense as an example. A lot of people would want to role the dice on the prospect, but if you have a 3B prospect and Khris Bryant is your starter it is a totally different story.

[SRB]

The trade as proposed is a little hard to judge because Santana seems like he should already be in the majors, so it doesn't make a lot of sense. However, if I was a contending team, and needed a solid LF bat, and had a #75-100 prospect in the lower minors who could not help me anytime soon, I would not be outraged by that trade.

[Jenkins5]

Hader is #4 potential?? News to me. He has frontline lefty written all over him.

 

Santana could come replace Davis tomorrow and we wouldn't miss a beat.

 

So a higher potential OF and a #2-#3 starting LHP 4 Davis? Is that really even a question?

[brewcrewdue80]

Hader is #4 potential?? News to me. He has frontline lefty written all over him.

 

Santana could come replace Davis tomorrow and we wouldn't miss a beat.

 

So a higher potential OF and a #2-#3 starting LHP 4 Davis? Is that really even a question?

 

Then you're evaluating Davis as I am. Having very little worth in a trade.

 

I've read #4 and if things click maybe a #3 very little #2. He's #15 in the Brewers system of non #2s to begin with and he's not ranking ahead of the #3s so I'm going that his ranking reflects being a #4 until proven otherwise.

[Jenkins5]

Hader has been rated as high as #4 I have seen and is rated as a top 80 prospect by 1 national scout (Badler maybe?) he's 21 and more than holding his own in AA. Has made big strides every season. Power lefty with deception.

 

Khris Davis holds little value IMO outside of AL as a DH. A .250 hitter who will give you 25 bombs, k a lot, not walk too much, and has no arm. Maybe someone likes that enough to give up value but hard to see a top 100. Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

[nate82]

Khris Davis's value is that of Cespedes. So expect a package similar to what the Mets gave up to get Cespedes. Fulmer and Cessa are who you should expect in a trade for Davis.

 

Cespedes looks to be a little bit better than Davis in the OF but it is not by all that much. Offensively Cespedes and Davis are the exact same player. If Cespedes with only a half year of control can get Fulmer and Cessa from the Mets what do you think Davis could get?

 

There is some severe undervaluing of Davis going on in this thread.

[trwi7]

Khris Davis's value is that of Cespedes. So expect a package similar to what the Mets gave up to get Cespedes. Fulmer and Cessa are who you should expect in a trade for Davis.

 

Excellent comparison.

 

Cespedes is a career .269/.316/.471 hitter. Davis is a career .247/.313/.476 hitter. Cespedes is a better defender with a much better arm but Davis is cheap with years of control remaining, more than cancelling out Cespedes' defensive value.

 

I'll throw out another comparison of a guy with a lot of team control and no defensive value. Evan Gattis got the Braves Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz and Andrew Thurman.

[brewcrewdue80]

Khris Davis's value is that of Cespedes. So expect a package similar to what the Mets gave up to get Cespedes. Fulmer and Cessa are who you should expect in a trade for Davis.

 

Excellent comparison.

 

Cespedes is a career .269/.316/.471 hitter. Davis is a career .247/.313/.476 hitter. Cespedes is a better defender with a much better arm but Davis is cheap with years of control remaining, more than cancelling out Cespedes' defensive value.

 

I'll throw out another comparison of a guy with a lot of team control and no defensive value. Evan Gattis got the Braves Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz and Andrew Thurman.

 

 

But there's reason to suggest on Gattis he was Growing at the plate prior to that trade. His batting numbers were better than the season before with a BA of .263....at the ML avg(slightly above apparently) Davis's BA is lower for the 3rd straight year now. Now if he gets his average up to .260-.265 by season's end Evan Gattis is what you're looking at. But at .232 with a 2nd year reducing your BA, you're not trading Davis to be Gattis as your DH. Unless your options are fairly terrible. Such as Houston's after Santana and Singleton's brief look and Chris Carter struggling to bat much above .200

 

I don't get trading for Davis to be your DH if he's batting below .250 or under .800OPS. Adam Lind would be my target first over Davis if DH is the case.

 

I didnt really consider the team control of years when comparing Davis to Cespedes. But again, I'm looking at numbers by Yoenis of .293 with 18HRs in 427PAs. In other words, being traded like Gattis as his value had to be at about it's peak. Davis doesn't apply to being traded at his peak currently.

 

With a spurt through to the finish of the season maybe Davis approaches .250s and his value very well can be compared to Evan Gattis. He continues sputtering around low .230s his Defense is just not good enough to want to take him in for 20s in HRs while giving away any kind of future ML talent such as Santana.

[MrTPlush]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

[brewcrewdue80]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

 

Reasons to consider that are his arm/speed 8SBs in his career Having LF be his only position to play? Batting avg/On Base potential. He's at 27.5% K rate up from 22.2% last season. For someone barely above 20% K rate in the minors.

 

How about Davis' Splits? .862 batting in MP. .708 on the road. Something else that doesn't bode well.

 

Let's say you trade Santana for Davis. Next season Davis throws a 550PA statline of .216/.280/.410. Continues his decline? Meanwhile Santana is having Davis' rookie year at the plate for the team you traded him to.

 

The signs are very well reading loud and clear Davis' numbers are more likely to reduce than to improve back to above expectations. Especially with a move away from MP

[trwi7]

But there's reason to suggest on Gattis he was Growing at the plate prior to that trade. His batting numbers were better than the season before with a BA of .263....at the ML avg(slightly above apparently) Davis's BA is lower for the 3rd straight year now. Now if he gets his average up to .260-.265 by season's end Evan Gattis is what you're looking at.

 

There's nothing to suggest that Gattis was improving as a hitter other than a few more balls eluding defenders. He still hacked at everything and didn't draw walks (something that Davis actually does, which is why despite batting in the .230s this year has led to Davis having a better OBP than Gattis has ever had.)

 

They were the same age. Gattis was 27 last year, Davis is this year. Both have a bunch of years of team control left. It's a completely valid comparison and I would actually probably prefer Davis to Gattis.

 

Now I think the Astros overpaid for Gattis at the time and I obviously think that now with Gattis being horrible this season but all it takes is one team to overpay and we could get a really nice haul for Davis.

[Outlander]

Yeah, I think this whole premise just kind of falls flat. First, it is kind of silly to argue if you would trade a player you have for another player you already have at the big league level. Secondly, it doesn't matter if you would or would not trade Santana for Davis because somebody else may very well trade player x for Davis and another team player y for Davis. There are 29 teams to trade with and they all have different needs and are at different stages of building or rebuilding. Some teams would find Davis useless while others would love to have a cost controlled player with power.

[rwa12]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

 

I think in a way, it does. Many feel that lower-end prospects that made it are a fluke, or don't have the pedigree. Look at the way people looked at Fiers, or Podsednik, or Brady Clark. These weren't "prospects", they were guys who had arguably successful careers, but we were waiting for the other shoe to drop. They never had the blue chip label. I think that's why many casual fans aren't surprised by Jungmann. They knew he was a #1 pick, so his success was assumed...while Cravy was a lower pick, who will revert back to expectations. I'm not sure this reasoning is logical, but it is somewhat prevalent.

[Point Beer Is Best]

This thread title is a mess. Normally you see something like "Santana & Hader for Davis?" or "What's a fair return for Khris Davis?" whereas this title made my head explode since it made me think that the Brewers had traded Santana and Hader for Baltimore's Chris Davis for some reason.

 

Anyways, we're basically talking about the trade value of Kris Davis, which is already being discussed in the other thread.

[MrTPlush]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

 

I think in a way, it does. Many feel that lower-end prospects that made it are a fluke, or don't have the pedigree. Look at the way people looked at Fiers, or Podsednik, or Brady Clark. These weren't "prospects", they were guys who had arguably successful careers, but we were waiting for the other shoe to drop. They never had the blue chip label. I think that's why many casual fans aren't surprised by Jungmann. They knew he was a #1 pick, so his success was assumed...while Cravy was a lower pick, who will revert back to expectations. I'm not sure this reasoning is logical, but it is somewhat prevalent.

 

It does in the short term...like the examples of Jungmann/Cravy, but I think Khris Davis is past that point. I think there is a good idea of what Khris Davis is and can be.

[Jenkins5]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

 

Where he was as a prospect doesn't matter ( except other way around where a once star prospect with little mlb success will still have higher value based on potential) I was just using that as to explain him as a player. He is absolutely nothing special. He may hit .250 with 25 hrs with ton of Ks, not many walks, no speed, no arm, okay fielding. As a GM in no way would I be say man we need this guy! Let's give up a guy whose potential far outweighs his and throw in another guy who may pan out. He was a lower ranked prospect for the same reason he isn't anything special now. Not saying another team won't value him because where he was ranked.

[jerichoholicninja]

Davis himself wasn't a high rated prospect I horrid system. Peaked at maybe #8?

 

So to have trade value we must ignore MLB production and worry about how he was rated as a prospect? I have never heard, after 1,000 MLB plate appearances, a players trade value be effected by his prospect ranking. Unless of course you are a big time prospect that still has potential to grow. But to have your prospect ranking negatively effect you well into your MLB career? That just seems unreal.

 

Where he was as a prospect doesn't matter ( except other way around where a once star prospect with little mlb success will still have higher value based on potential) I was just using that as to explain him as a player. He is absolutely nothing special. He may hit .250 with 25 hrs with ton of Ks, not many walks, no speed, no arm, okay fielding. As a GM in no way would I be say man we need this guy! Let's give up a guy whose potential far outweighs his and throw in another guy who may pan out. He was a lower ranked prospect for the same reason he isn't anything special now. Not saying another team won't value him because where he was ranked.

 

Except that two GM's already have as has been pointed out with Cespedes (traded twice) and Gattis.

[reillymcshane]

Khris Davis's value is that of Cespedes. So expect a package similar to what the Mets gave up to get Cespedes. Fulmer and Cessa are who you should expect in a trade for Davis.

 

Cespedes looks to be a little bit better than Davis in the OF but it is not by all that much. Offensively Cespedes and Davis are the exact same player. If Cespedes with only a half year of control can get Fulmer and Cessa from the Mets what do you think Davis could get?

 

There is some severe undervaluing of Davis going on in this thread.

Cespedes brings far more defensive value than Davis. Cespedes has 20+ HR every year (I'm counting 2015 since he's at 19 now) of his career - four years in a row. I think he's a far better player than Davis. Fangraphs pegs his value at about 3.5 WAR on average over his career. In roughly two seasons of play, Davis has a value of 1.7 WAR per season.

 

The value of the years is the big question - 4 years of Davis vs .5 of Cespedes. If you think Davis can produce 2.0 WAR a year for four years, that's solid value. Certainly more than a half season of Cespedes. And probably worth a decent prospect. I guess the question comes down to what teams see Davis' value is. His inconsistent play is concerning. I've said this before - I wouldn't be surprised if Davis hit .270 with 25 HR. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .220.

 

The Mets bought a known quantity in Cespedes - good fielder, good power. They value that certainty in a playoff run. I think the uncertainty of Davis gives teams pause to pay a lot for him. There are some obvious flaws in his game (arm), and anyone wanting him would be banking on his potential to emerge.

[reillymcshane]

Hader is #4 potential?? News to me. He has frontline lefty written all over him.

 

Santana could come replace Davis tomorrow and we wouldn't miss a beat.

 

So a higher potential OF and a #2-#3 starting LHP 4 Davis? Is that really even a question?

Hader a #2? That's news to me. Who has ever tapped him with that potential.

[tmwiese55]

Khris Davis's value is that of Cespedes. So expect a package similar to what the Mets gave up to get Cespedes. Fulmer and Cessa are who you should expect in a trade for Davis.

 

Cespedes looks to be a little bit better than Davis in the OF but it is not by all that much. Offensively Cespedes and Davis are the exact same player. If Cespedes with only a half year of control can get Fulmer and Cessa from the Mets what do you think Davis could get?

 

There is some severe undervaluing of Davis going on in this thread.

Cespedes brings far more defensive value than Davis. Cespedes has 20+ HR every year (I'm counting 2015 since he's at 19 now) of his career - four years in a row. I think he's a far better player than Davis. Fangraphs pegs his value at about 3.5 WAR on average over his career. In roughly two seasons of play, Davis has a value of 1.7 WAR per season.

 

The value of the years is the big question - 4 years of Davis vs .5 of Cespedes. If you think Davis can produce 2.0 WAR a year for four years, that's solid value. Certainly more than a half season of Cespedes. And probably worth a decent prospect. I guess the question comes down to what teams see Davis' value is. His inconsistent play is concerning. I've said this before - I wouldn't be surprised if Davis hit .270 with 25 HR. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .220.

 

The Mets bought a known quantity in Cespedes - good fielder, good power. They value that certainty in a playoff run. I think the uncertainty of Davis gives teams pause to pay a lot for him. There are some obvious flaws in his game (arm), and anyone wanting him would be banking on his potential to emerge.

 

I think everyone would agree on that. Keep in mind Cespedes is expensive on his current deal and about to go up to 15+ mil per year, probably more like 20. Davis is basically free for a few more years.

 

Yea, very confusing thread though. And for every no name guy that does make it (Fiers, Podsednik), there are much more that have a hot few months or year and then do fall hard back to reality.

[reillymcshane]

And for every no name guy that does make it (Fiers, Podsednik), there are much more that have a hot few months or year and then do fall hard back to reality.

Did someone call my name?

 

http://lonelytailgater.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/joec.jpg

[reillymcshane]

Yea, very confusing thread though.

 

Yep. I beg people to write good headlines. This is not like ads on Facebook trying to entice us to click on a link. It's a title - have it specifically represent what the thread is about.

 

"Whoa, look at this" is not a good title for a post on a message board. Instead write, "Gomez makes amazing catch."

 

That's just me. Maybe people like more obscure or leading thread titles.

 

I'll stop grinding my axe.

[clancyphile]

Cespedes brings far more defensive value than Davis. Cespedes has 20+ HR every year (I'm counting 2015 since he's at 19 now) of his career - four years in a row. I think he's a far better player than Davis. Fangraphs pegs his value at about 3.5 WAR on average over his career. In roughly two seasons of play, Davis has a value of 1.7 WAR per season.

 

The value of the years is the big question - 4 years of Davis vs .5 of Cespedes. If you think Davis can produce 2.0 WAR a year for four years, that's solid value. Certainly more than a half season of Cespedes. And probably worth a decent prospect. I guess the question comes down to what teams see Davis' value is. His inconsistent play is concerning. I've said this before - I wouldn't be surprised if Davis hit .270 with 25 HR. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .220.

 

The Mets bought a known quantity in Cespedes - good fielder, good power. They value that certainty in a playoff run. I think the uncertainty of Davis gives teams pause to pay a lot for him. There are some obvious flaws in his game (arm), and anyone wanting him would be banking on his potential to emerge.

 

Davis appears to have improved his plate discipline - 30 walks in 266 PAs this year as opposed to 32 in 549 PA last year. Even though his average has dropped 12 points, his OBP has gone up 21 points.

 

Might be wroth a long look at Davis - both as a trade asset, and as a part moving forward.