Trading for Parra to improve last year juxtaposed to trading away Gomez for prospects this year

[Invader3K]

Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun.

 

Braun sure. I have no idea why you used Lucroy as an example. He's paying him on average $2.2M per year. Even Loria would pay that.

 

So they should have signed him to a higher dollar contract for the same length of time, just to make some sort of philosophical point?

[FVBrewerFan]

Lucroy is having a bad year, why would anyone offer a couple of top shelf prospects for him? It's just that simple. Would some teams want a veteran catcher with a very favorable contract for three yrs? Sure. But trades at this time of year are made to win it all THIS year. And Lucroy doesn't exactly scream "He'll put a charge in the line-up."

 

Cole Hamels had a hamstring strain that sidelined him for a week in June; then he returned in late June to post a 7.46 ERA & 1.78 WHIP over 25.1 ip (twice not making it out of the 3rd inning). Teams were lining up to trade for him with proposals that included several top-shelf prospects. And that was before his no-hitter. In addition, Hamels has had his issues since the start of the 2014 season, so I think teams who are trying to compete in the post-season are willing to overpay for a player they perceive will put them over the edge, regardless of red flags. Not to mention, Hamels has an abortion of a contract at $23.5 mil per year. I mean, Texas took him on & it might mean saying good bye to Yu Darvish, which is so, so bad if it plays out that way. I mean, they have to deal Shin Soo-Choo or Elvis Andrus to clear the room for a Darvish extension, and who's going to take on either one of those guys with their contracts? Point being, don't discount the possibility of teams doing something stupid.

 

But, also Lucroy having a bad year is a results-orientated, offense-only look at his season. His home run to fly ball rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie year of 2010. It's at 4.8%, which is abnormally low for a hitter with a career .428 SLG playing half of his games at Miller Park. His babip this season is 28 points below his career average. His walk rate is equivalent to his career average and his k rate is 1.3% lower than his career average. It's a down year for Lucroy, but not a bad year. And health has played a factor too. If teams were willing to overlook Hamels' struggles in late June & July, then there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to overlook Lucroy's modest struggles, which I think they probably should.

 

Citing an article from April of this year, Lucroy has the most "stolen" strikes in MLB over the past 5 seasons. It's over 1,000, which Baseball Prospectus equates to 18 wins. Teams are willing to pay a hefty price for 3.6 extra wins per season; particularly, for a player who only costs $4 mil next season. Citing a couple of stats you quickly glanced at off of Lucroy's ESPN profile page isn't an accurate method to assess his value in the trade market. Additionally, the other catchers in baseball who excel at pitch framing have OPS in the 500s. Lucroy's a god send. His return on the open market would be/should be substantial.

 

Youre trying to make a case why Lucroy SHOULD have had buyers lining up. That's all well and good, but that's not what teams are looking for in August. They are looking to bolster rotation. A distant 2nd is finding a bat. Lucroy offers neither. In the off-season teams can look at the bigger picture, but right now all Lucroy is is a light hitting catcher.

[trwi7]

Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun.

 

Braun sure. I have no idea why you used Lucroy as an example. He's paying him on average $2.2M per year. Even Loria would pay that.

 

So they should have signed him to a higher dollar contract for the same length of time, just to make some sort of philosophical point?

 

No, I'm just saying he called him a cheapskate (not saying I agree) and you used Lucroy as an example that he's not. That's not the contract to use. There would be several other contracts to use before using that one. I'd use Prince's contract his last year here before I'd use Lucroy's contract considering Prince's contract was $4 million more that one year than Lucroy's is over 5.

[igor67]

Before we go to far down the rabbit hole let's address the central point that Lucroy should have been dealt. How many other teams have ever pulled off more than 4 trades pre-deadline? After we know that rather small number then we can examine how many did so while getting reasonable value.

[trwi7]

I'm fine with Lucroy not being dealt. He's having a down year, you hope he can play well enough the rest of the season (say .290/.350/.450 or something like that) which is basically what he hit in July.

 

If they hold on to him and sign free agents and keep Lind or something, that would be infuriating/baffling but the fact they turned down his request for an extension makes me think that they'll probably look to trade him at some point after making a few rebuilding moves at the deadline.

[HiAndTight]

Mitchell Haniger: I like him most of all because he's patient & has plate discipline. I watched all of his at bats during 2014 Spring Training (he hit .500 with a 938 SLG, granted same sample only 19 PAs), and I liked what I saw. The Brewers organization, itself, was raving about his 2013 Arizona Fall League were he posted a .354 OBP & a 834 OPS over 113 PAs. People are down on him because he struggled at AA in '14. The Dbacks even started him off at high A ball this year, which he crushed to the tune of a 1048 OPS. He's a guy who just needs more PAs. Over 174 at AA so far this year he has a 351 OBP, the SLG isn't there at 379, but he's lowered his K rate & increased his walk rate. It's really early to sour on a guy who's shown promise vs big league pitching in spring training & top prospects at the AFL. Also, his speed, defense, and arm play at the big league level right now. A Nick Markakis projection for Haniger is super fair.

 

Gerardo Parra: He was an afterthought international signing at 17 back in 2004. It took him 5 years to make the majors, which is great at 22, but he's no Miguel Sano, for example. He's a guy who without his defense would post negative WAR #s. When the Brewers acquired him he had a career 90 wRC+. League average is 100, but league average for outfielders and 1b is 110-115. 90 is a weak-hitting back up infielder type like Johnny Giavotella (who has a 93 wRC+ so far in '15). That's the "big" bat the Brewers traded for last year. Yes, Parra is having a great year this year. Thank God, or the Brewers would of been stuck holding his "hot potato". Parra's benefitting from a .372 babip this year, the highest recorded babip in history was .363, so we know .372 is unsustainable and an example of running extremely well this deep into a season, especially. League average babip this year is .298 for example. Also, Parra's home run to fly ball rate is over 50% higher than his career average. It may help him reach his second double digit home run total of his career. Oh boy. Yes, he's a Gold Glove defender, but the Brewers had Gomez in Centerfield, Segura at SS, and Lucroy behind the plate, I really don't think they needed to deplete the farm system to add defense last year. What they needed was a bat, and what they added was Johnny Giavotella.

 

 

The highest babip was .363? According to what source? I'm quite certain that's NOT the case and some of the "facts," you've thrown in I think have gotten lost amongst the pure absurdity of the larger discussion that they're going unnoticed.

 

That's the only thing I'm going to point out here, because I'm just going to get a headache if I have to get into a deeper "depleting the farm system by trading away Mich ---ing Haniger" type conversation, a guy who almost certainly wouldn't rank in our type 15 prospects right now and was ONE PLAYER.

[HiAndTight]

So, the Brewers should HAVE kept Haniger and signed Everett and not had a first round pick next year because you personally hated the Lohse signing?

 

Those who think I've irrationally overreacted. This ^ is the post that sent me over the edge. It's a selective, ridiculous citing of specific moves (putting words in my mouth) and ignoring my overall point.

 

My overall point: There is no discernible direction for this organization. I think Melvin is handicapped by Attanasio's year-to-year, maybe even month-to-month, reactionary vision for the franchise. There is no organizational philosophy (outside of maybe emphasizing groundball pitchers and advocating shifts) like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, or a handful of other teams have. The Brewers are in the worst possible position they can be in--they're indecisive.

 

 

Edit: Actually (or technically), they may be decisive. Attanasio's apparent decision looks to be contend every year. They appear to be scared to swing for the fences because Attanasio is deathly afraid of what happens when they swing & miss and are terrible, which is ironic because that's what they've backed into this year. At least when you swing & miss, you wind up with a top of the draft pick & hope on the horizon. Until they moved Gomez, there wasn't a lot of hope on the horizon. Personally, I wanna play for the World Series. Boom or bust. I'm never going to be an advocate of just trying to stay competitive. Maybe that makes the most financial sense, and it's easy to take a boom or bust approach when you're not the one signing the checks. That said, if there was an actual plan, one that was adhered to, I think the fanbase would support the team. But, when you so obviously take a cheapskate approach, like they did during the 2013 off-season when they hoped they'd sign a starter below market value & wound up paying for Lohse, fans can't support that. Which then becomes a vicious cycle where Attanasio can turn around and say he can't spend on this team because the fans don't support it. Which might be the case because unless the Brewers are in the playoffs does anyone give them a second thought past "Who's the Packers' nickel DB?" (I'm seriously asking. I don't know what the typical Wisconsin sports fan pays attention to... like is anyone taking notice of what the Bucks are doing?)... The current approach is still very poor. Even under Attanasio's financial restrictions, they could be taking an approach more likely to land this team in the post-season with starting pitching that would allow them to contend for a title.

 

I really don't get the "Brewers are afraid to swing for the fences," line of thinking. Just the trade that netted us Gomez was a "swing for the fence," type of move. The CC, Greinke trades, Marcum, swing for the fence type of moves.

 

I wouldn't be disagreeing with you so much if you were using a legitimate player as your example. But we're talking about Mitch Haniger. Mitch Haniger does NOT equate to depleting our farm system and given the talent we have in our OF, if he was going to become a 10 year starter for us, given his limited ability, that means that things would have to go very bad for the current OF'ers we have(not to mention some of the young IF'ers we have who likely won't stick at their respective positions, ie, Lara being one obvious candidate).

 

You started this entire discussion based on your opinion on Haniger from what you admit were 19 ST'oing at bats you were impressed with. Do you see why some may have trouble with this logic?

 

The farm system is clearly better this year than it was last year, so you also can't continue to say that we depleted our farm system for Parra.

[trwi7]

The highest babip was .363? According to what source?

 

It's obviously not true. 2014 leader was Starling Marte at .373. Chris Johnson, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Allen Craig and Mike Napoli were all above .363 in 2013. There are 10 players above .363 this year.

[clancyphile]

I'm fine with Lucroy not being dealt. He's having a down year, you hope he can play well enough the rest of the season (say .290/.350/.450 or something like that) which is basically what he hit in July.

 

If they hold on to him and sign free agents and keep Lind or something, that would be infuriating/baffling but the fact they turned down his request for an extension makes me think that they'll probably look to trade him at some point after making a few rebuilding moves at the deadline.

 

I've come to the conclusion that Jon Lucroy may be someone to keep as part of a core, especially with a lot of young pitchers in the system. His bat, I think may be less important than his pitch-framing, which may make those young pitchers that much better.

 

If he makes young pitchers better, then that presents a lot of options.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ennder: I disagree that that is the only way for us to win it all. I think in order for us to win it all we have to first and foremost acquire an ace and to have a staff capable of posting an era in the top half of the league. Imagine how good this team could have been from 2007-2011 if they had the pitching to go with the hitting. The Brewers problem has consistently been pitching. But rather than go all in and trade away everyone for a Zack Greinke they need to develop their Zack Greinke so they can keep him for six years as opposed to one or two. that's why I've been so adamant about moving guys like Gomez and Lucroy. Without top ten picks, using them as trade bait is really the only shot they have at getting that pitcher. I'm praying they can get a top five pick next June so they can draft that player but trading Lucroy for one might be the easier and safer route to take. Once you have that and can compliment him with your nelsons and jungmanns and eventually your Mederios and Williams you can win year in year out with the same guys. The key is to constantly recycle those players rather than trying to squeeze every bit of value you can get from them and hang onto them until they are in their mid thirties.

 

The thing is, Lucroy can make these starters better with his pitch framing. While his bat may decline - I think the pitch framing will improve over time, and Lucroy will "steal" more strikes - so that he knock s what should be a 3.70 ERA to a 3.30.

 

An extension of $12 million a year for Lucroy, who makes a constant influx of young starters better, might very well be the better bargain over the long haul.

 

 

I think you may be severely over-stating the value of pitch-framing. I know that became a buzz-word around here after Lucroy became suddenly known for it, but it's still somewhat of a subjective analysis, and something I really don't want to see a small market team pay a lot of money for.

[Thundercat32]

I really don't get the "Brewers are afraid to swing for the fences," line of thinking. Just the trade that netted us Gomez was a "swing for the fence," type of move. The CC, Greinke trades, Marcum, swing for the fence type of moves.

 

I wouldn't be disagreeing with you so much if you were using a legitimate player as your example. But we're talking about Mitch Haniger. Mitch Haniger does NOT equate to depleting our farm system and given the talent we have in our OF, if he was going to become a 10 year starter for us, given his limited ability, that means that things would have to go very bad for the current OF'ers we have(not to mention some of the young IF'ers we have who likely won't stick at their respective positions, ie, Lara being one obvious candidate).

 

You started this entire discussion based on your opinion on Haniger from what you admit were 19 ST'oing at bats you were impressed with. Do you see why some may have trouble with this logic?

 

The farm system is clearly better this year than it was last year, so you also can't continue to say that we depleted our farm system for Parra.

 

So, are you a cherry-picker when you go to the supermarket to buy fruit, as well, or is it just when you're reviewing my posts?

[Thundercat32]

The highest babip was .363? According to what source? I'm quite certain that's NOT the case and some of the "facts," you've thrown in I think have gotten lost amongst the pure absurdity of the larger discussion that they're going unnoticed.

 

That's the only thing I'm going to point out here, because I'm just going to get a headache if I have to get into a deeper "depleting the farm system by trading away Mich ---ing Haniger" type conversation, a guy who almost certainly wouldn't rank in our type 15 prospects right now and was ONE PLAYER.

 

Dave Cameron was the source. He mentioned it in a presentation at the 2013 Sabre Seminar in Boston. I was recalling it from memory, but the actual babip # is .365 and the player is Rogers Hornsby.

 

[Expletive deleted by moderator], get off of Mitch Haniger already. As I stated in a previous post, it wouldn't matter if the Brewers gave up the Chorizo sausage & a roll of pennies for Parra. A) Parra is dog excrement at the plate and did not help the Brewers make the playoffs. All he did was, in theory, push us down a slot or two in this year's draft. We landed Trenton Clark, so it didn't hurt us in actuality, but it was a bad strategic move... Or maybe you're the type of fan who looks at a manager when he pulls the starter in the 7th inning with 1 out and runners on 1st & 2nd and you wait to see whether the reliever gets out of the inning unscathed or not, and whether we win the game or not, before you decide whether pulling the starter was the right move or not.

 

Is that how you think? Do you need to see the results first before you can make an evaluation?

[Thundercat32]

The highest babip was .363? According to what source?

 

It's obviously not true. 2014 leader was Starling Marte at .373. Chris Johnson, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Allen Craig and Mike Napoli were all above .363 in 2013. There are 10 players above .363 this year.

 

 

career babip. For an entire career. Post 1900.

 

Rogers Hornsby .365 career babip

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1006030&position=2B

 

 

Flame me all you want, but don't tell me I'm not a knowledgeable baseball fan. Like I said, when I quote a statistic, I know [expletive deleted by moderator] I'm talking about.

[Thundercat32]

Youre trying to make a case why Lucroy SHOULD have had buyers lining up. That's all well and good, but that's not what teams are looking for in August. They are looking to bolster rotation. A distant 2nd is finding a bat. Lucroy offers neither. In the off-season teams can look at the bigger picture, but right now all Lucroy is is a light hitting catcher.

 

The only thing I know for sure is that you're not an employee in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. There's a reason why they sign the catchers that they do, why they bring in the relievers they do. There's a reason to everything they do.

 

The Brewers' front office is like watching an intoxicated noob at the poker table. Nothing they do is intentional or coordinated with their previous decisions, and in the same hand; it's all reactionary... just call check/call, check/call, check/call... that's the Attanasio way.

[FVBrewerFan]

Youre trying to make a case why Lucroy SHOULD have had buyers lining up. That's all well and good, but that's not what teams are looking for in August. They are looking to bolster rotation. A distant 2nd is finding a bat. Lucroy offers neither. In the off-season teams can look at the bigger picture, but right now all Lucroy is is a light hitting catcher.

 

The only thing I know for sure is that you're not an employee in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. There's a reason why they sign the catchers that they do, why they bring in the relievers they do. There's a reason to everything they do.

 

The Brewers' front office is like watching an intoxicated noob at the poker table. Nothing they do is intentional or coordinated with their previous decisions, and in the same hand; it's all reactionary... just call check/call, check/call, check/call... that's the Attanasio way.

 

That's nice, but it did not address the point I made. How many teams were offering the Brewers a couple of top shelf prospects for Lucroy?

[Thundercat32]

 

I agree. In an ideal world Attanasio wouldn't be such a cheapskate. If you look at how fortunate we were with Carlos Gomez, a lottery ticket that cashed in, and what Lucroy blossomed into, I mean, it's exactly what you would hope a young group of prospects would become. You would hope for better than what we've gotten from Segura & you'd hope for better pitching prospects... Although, Odorizzi's been pretty nice, and all you had to do there was just keep him (which I'm going to get flamed for saying that because how could you not deal for Greinke with the 2011 team?)... Anyways, where the Brewers are at now, you're forced to play for 2018 & beyond. You kind of have to suspend belief that Attanasio will ever spend any money to retain productive players too.

 

How exactly Attanasio been a "cheap skate"? Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun. We have signed fairly high dollar free agents like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse in recent years.

 

We'll never be the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but the team's payroll is competitive.

 

 

He could of just signed Nelson Cruz to a one year deal for $8 mil and eclipsed the value any of those 3 players have had... You get awfully excited for guys like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse... Who's your dream girl? A late 30s, bleach blonde, trailer queen with a pronounced fupa & 4 kids?... Who exactly was competing for those 3's services??? Each one of those players settled coming to Milwaukee. Attanasio didn't go out & win their FA bidding war. It was probably Milwaukee or Japan for Lohse... I'm exaggerating here, but not by much.

[Thundercat32]

Youre trying to make a case why Lucroy SHOULD have had buyers lining up. That's all well and good, but that's not what teams are looking for in August. They are looking to bolster rotation. A distant 2nd is finding a bat. Lucroy offers neither. In the off-season teams can look at the bigger picture, but right now all Lucroy is is a light hitting catcher.

 

The only thing I know for sure is that you're not an employee in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. There's a reason why they sign the catchers that they do, why they bring in the relievers they do. There's a reason to everything they do.

 

The Brewers' front office is like watching an intoxicated noob at the poker table. Nothing they do is intentional or coordinated with their previous decisions, and in the same hand; it's all reactionary... just call check/call, check/call, check/call... that's the Attanasio way.

 

That's nice, but it did not address the point I made. How many teams were offering the Brewers a couple of top shelf prospects for Lucroy?

 

I don't know, I'm not Buster Olney. How much do you know about defensive catching metrics?

[Thundercat32]

I'm actually starting to feel bad, like I'm a huge jerk or something... I'm going to take a break from the thread for awhile...

 

There's a lot of Brewers' apologists and selective hearing going on in this thread, though.

[1992casey]

It's time to take a permanent break from this topic.