Trading for Parra to improve last year juxtaposed to trading away Gomez for prospects this year

[paul253]

It's ok. People are allowed to disagree with you. Maybe once you accept that you're headache will go away.

 

The whole idea of trading people and ticket sales is tied together. It doesn't matter if it is Gomez or lucroy. Gomez was traded because he had less team control and Lucroy is more of a "face of the franchise". Do you disagree? What is the other logical reason for keeping Lucroy? Are they planning on extending him? I'd say no given reports that he approached them about an extension and they turned him down. Do they think they are going to win in the time they have left with him? I doubt it because if they did they wouldn't have traded Gomez. So what's the reason to hang on to him? Obviously you're the expert. Help me out.

[FVBrewerFan]

I can hardly wait for next week's topic: "Shane Peterson- friend or foe?"

[Raw Biz]

Wow, that was interesting. I just can't take anyone serious who repeatedly says "should of" instead of "should've" or "should have".

[3and2Fastball]

I'd say no given reports that he approached them about an extension and they turned him down. Do they think they are going to win in the time they have left with him? I doubt it because if they did they wouldn't have traded Gomez. So what's the reason to hang on to him?

 

Various possibilities:

 

1) They have a Team Option for the 2017 season with Lucroy and think they could win in 2017.

 

2) They think they could get a better haul for Lucroy trading him in the offseason

[BrewCrew8682]

Adding to that, Lucroy is also having an even more down season that Gomez. There are also more outfield positions in baseball to fill (teams could move their OFs around to fit Gomez). Maybe there just wasn't an offer or a fit that the Brewers liked, and more options could lead to a better fit in the offseason. It wasn't like his value was at an all-time high with the way he was playing, and the extra 2 months only means anything to teams in contention, who may not have been prioritizing catcher. I think it's important to always keep in mind that while in theory more service time should mean more value, but value is in fact driven more so by demand IMHO. GMs offer more when they're competing with others than when they're alone.

[paul253]

I agree it's entirely possible that they couldn't get what they wanted for Lucroy. But did you get the sense he was really truly available? Not in the sense that everyone is available for the right price but available as in "yes we will openly listen to legitimate offers for him"? I sure didn't. Which makes me wonder why. Could they be hanging onto him with the goal of competing in 2017? Yes. But isn't that the same kind of short sightedness I'm talking about? It's one thing to hold on to Fielder for one last year when you have the complimentary pieces to surround him and the farm system to get your ace. But while we may have the prospects to go get an ace for a year or two we certainly don't have the complimentary pieces that we had in 2011. That's why I can't imagine hanging onto him now is being done with the goal of winning it all in 2017. They just aren't there.

 

Look obviously I'm not privy to what's going on in the front office. Is it possible they are hangin on to Lucroy because when they dangled his name they didn't get the offers they wanted? Or because they plan on hi being a part of their next playoff team? Of course. But it's also possible they are keeping him so the casual fans keep showing up for games. Because they are afraid of the backlash of them trading the one guy most fans recognize and respect. for other posters to sit here and act like that is some far fetched conspiracy theory type suggestion is rather annoying.

[The stache]

The card player analogy is a good way of looking at what the Brewers have done over the last year. In 2014, at the trade deadline, we were a virtual lock to make the playoffs. The Brewers "had a good hand", and attempted to improve their chances of winning by picking up another card. This year, they were dealt an awful hand from the get go. There's no reason to pick up cards when you can't win, so the Brewers folded, and started thinking about the next hand, or the future. What the Brewers have done recently makes perfect sense.

 

The Brewers parlayed Gerardo Parra's strong offensive season into a pitcher that immediately becomes one of our top 10 or 11 prospects. Zach Davies has a really good chance of sticking with the organization. Parra was not a part of our plans, long term. Even if we'd decided to keep him for a few more years, he'd have found it difficult to get on the field. Look at our system right now. Brett Phillips (#2), Trent Clark (#3), Domingo Santana (#4), Tyrone Taylor (#5), Clint Coulter (#7), and Monte Harrison (#12) are all outfielders. All of those guys have more upside than Parra. Our team is in rebuild mode now, and Parra wasn't going to make enough of a difference on our active roster to change that. So, trading him and getting a piece for the future is smart management.

[FVBrewerFan]

Lucroy is having a bad year, why would anyone offer a couple of top shelf prospects for him? It's just that simple. Would some teams want a veteran catcher with a very favorable contract for three yrs? Sure. But trades at this time of year are made to win it all THIS year. And Lucroy doesn't exactly scream "He'll put a charge in the line-up."

[3and2Fastball]

I sincerely believe that they tried to trade Lucroy but they were far apart with potential trade partners as to the value of Lucroy. Lucroy has a .668 OPS this year. He has a .316 OBP

 

It is reasonable to be concerned that he is no longer one of the best Catchers in Baseball. Hopefully he can have a fantastic 2nd half and re-up his trade value, if the Brewers really do want to trade him

 

Honestly I'm amazed at the haul we got back for Gomez (recognizing that Fiers added value in the trade) considering that Gomez has reverted back to his career norms after career years in '13 & '14

[1992casey]

Do catchers move very often at the deadline? I would think it'd be a tall order to come in and start working with a new pitching staff in the midst of a pennant race.

[paul253]

Yeah he's having a down year. So what? Players having down years get traded all the time. Heck Gomez wasn't having all that great of a year. Lucroy has a long track record of success and is a premium player at a premium position with a very team friendly contract and multiple years of control. I'd be willing to bet a substantial amount that even with his down year had he been moved he'd have brought back more straight up then Gomez.

 

As far as what 'stache is talking about I think he makes a good point. It made total sense to buy last year and sell this year. I just don't want to see them move away from those common sense tactics this offseason by going out and overspending on a free agent or two under the pretense of "competing" just so it doesn't hurt season ticket sales. It seems like they finally got it right by moving the older more expensive players. Don't screw that up by signing a bunch of older expensive players in the offseason. Stick to the long term (even though I don't think it has to be that long of a term) plan of developing young talented players. Keep up with the high ceiling drafting and the international spending and continue to build from within. If I see that then it'll start to convince me that maybe they do have a long term plan and wont continuously patch together a team that hovers around .500.

[Thundercat32]

Lucroy is having a bad year, why would anyone offer a couple of top shelf prospects for him? It's just that simple. Would some teams want a veteran catcher with a very favorable contract for three yrs? Sure. But trades at this time of year are made to win it all THIS year. And Lucroy doesn't exactly scream "He'll put a charge in the line-up."

 

Cole Hamels had a hamstring strain that sidelined him for a week in June; then he returned in late June to post a 7.46 ERA & 1.78 WHIP over 25.1 ip (twice not making it out of the 3rd inning). Teams were lining up to trade for him with proposals that included several top-shelf prospects. And that was before his no-hitter. In addition, Hamels has had his issues since the start of the 2014 season, so I think teams who are trying to compete in the post-season are willing to overpay for a player they perceive will put them over the edge, regardless of red flags. Not to mention, Hamels has an abortion of a contract at $23.5 mil per year. I mean, Texas took him on & it might mean saying good bye to Yu Darvish, which is so, so bad if it plays out that way. I mean, they have to deal Shin Soo-Choo or Elvis Andrus to clear the room for a Darvish extension, and who's going to take on either one of those guys with their contracts? Point being, don't discount the possibility of teams doing something stupid.

 

But, also Lucroy having a bad year is a results-orientated, offense-only look at his season. His home run to fly ball rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie year of 2010. It's at 4.8%, which is abnormally low for a hitter with a career .428 SLG playing half of his games at Miller Park. His babip this season is 28 points below his career average. His walk rate is equivalent to his career average and his k rate is 1.3% lower than his career average. It's a down year for Lucroy, but not a bad year. And health has played a factor too. If teams were willing to overlook Hamels' struggles in late June & July, then there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to overlook Lucroy's modest struggles, which I think they probably should.

 

Citing an article from April of this year, Lucroy has the most "stolen" strikes in MLB over the past 5 seasons. It's over 1,000, which Baseball Prospectus equates to 18 wins. Teams are willing to pay a hefty price for 3.6 extra wins per season; particularly, for a player who only costs $4 mil next season. Citing a couple of stats you quickly glanced at off of Lucroy's ESPN profile page isn't an accurate method to assess his value in the trade market. Additionally, the other catchers in baseball who excel at pitch framing have OPS in the 500s. Lucroy's a god send. His return on the open market would be/should be substantial.

[Thundercat32]

For those advocating last year as a buy year...

 

I think you're overlooking the tendencies in post-season baseball, which is why teams pay exuberant prices for front-of-the-line starters. Those are the critical pieces that you have to have to succeed in the post-season. We all know that. The Brewers had the offense to compete last year (minus a quality left-handed bat), but offenses are regularly shut down in the post-season. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but teams runs per game averages drop noticeably in the post-season.

 

So, the question becomes, "Did the Brewers have the top-of-the-rotation starters & back-of-the-bullpen relievers that they needed to seriously contend for the World Series last year?"

 

Personally, I don't think so. Which is why I despise trading a prospect and depleting the farm system. Even, if everyone is right, and I'm wrong, and Mitch Haniger never plays an inning in the majors, all adding Gerardo Parra did was knock the Brewers down a couple spots in this year's MLB draft, which hurts the farm system... Now, thankfully for us, Parra hit his ceiling this year (which as I indicated in a previous post, has been significantly aided by a sky high babip of .372 & over a 50% increase in his hr-fb rate), and we made out with a significant pitching prospect. However, that's results-orientated; there's no way you'll be able to convince me that the Brewers' thought they were flipping Mitch Haniger for a pitching prospect at the time of that trade. Not to mention, they included Banda in that deal & he's thought of as a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It's certainly possible that Banda has a better career than Davies. No matter, how that plays out; the Brewers did not have the pitching to compete in the playoffs last year, so do NOT touch the farm system. That's been my main point throughout this thread.

[Thundercat32]

First people complained about being worried the Brewers wouldn't trade Gomez due to ticket sales and now I have to hear it about Lucroy?

 

I need some sleep I have a headache.

 

Ranking the best courses of action:

 

1) dealing both Gomez and Lucroy for prospects

 

2) keeping both Gomez and Lucroy to contend

 

3) dealing either Gomez or Lucroy and keeping the other

 

 

Granted, they can still deal Lucroy in the winter or at next year's trade deadline. That said, you'd like to take a haul of young prospects all at the same time, so they have the best chance of having young prospects hit the majors at the same time. Especially when the Brewers basically let everyone walk after their arbitration eligible years are over. Fans having an issue with the Brewers' current course of option #3 is completely understandable and should not cause you a headache, in my opinion.

[Thundercat32]

So, the Brewers should HAVE kept Haniger and signed Everett and not had a first round pick next year because you personally hated the Lohse signing?

 

Those who think I've irrationally overreacted. This ^ is the post that sent me over the edge. It's a selective, ridiculous citing of specific moves (putting words in my mouth) and ignoring my overall point.

 

My overall point: There is no discernible direction for this organization. I think Melvin is handicapped by Attanasio's year-to-year, maybe even month-to-month, reactionary vision for the franchise. There is no organizational philosophy (outside of maybe emphasizing groundball pitchers and advocating shifts) like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, or a handful of other teams have. The Brewers are in the worst possible position they can be in--they're indecisive.

 

 

Edit: Actually (or technically), they may be decisive. Attanasio's apparent decision looks to be contend every year. They appear to be scared to swing for the fences because Attanasio is deathly afraid of what happens when they swing & miss and are terrible, which is ironic because that's what they've backed into this year. At least when you swing & miss, you wind up with a top of the draft pick & hope on the horizon. Until they moved Gomez, there wasn't a lot of hope on the horizon. Personally, I wanna play for the World Series. Boom or bust. I'm never going to be an advocate of just trying to stay competitive. Maybe that makes the most financial sense, and it's easy to take a boom or bust approach when you're not the one signing the checks. That said, if there was an actual plan, one that was adhered to, I think the fanbase would support the team. But, when you so obviously take a cheapskate approach, like they did during the 2013 off-season when they hoped they'd sign a starter below market value & wound up paying for Lohse, fans can't support that. Which then becomes a vicious cycle where Attanasio can turn around and say he can't spend on this team because the fans don't support it. Which might be the case because unless the Brewers are in the playoffs does anyone give them a second thought past "Who's the Packers' nickel DB?" (I'm seriously asking. I don't know what the typical Wisconsin sports fan pays attention to... like is anyone taking notice of what the Bucks are doing?)... The current approach is still very poor. Even under Attanasio's financial restrictions, they could be taking an approach more likely to land this team in the post-season with starting pitching that would allow them to contend for a title.

[clancyphile]

It's ok. People are allowed to disagree with you. Maybe once you accept that you're headache will go away.

 

The whole idea of trading people and ticket sales is tied together. It doesn't matter if it is Gomez or lucroy. Gomez was traded because he had less team control and Lucroy is more of a "face of the franchise". Do you disagree? What is the other logical reason for keeping Lucroy? Are they planning on extending him? I'd say no given reports that he approached them about an extension and they turned him down. Do they think they are going to win in the time they have left with him? I doubt it because if they did they wouldn't have traded Gomez. So what's the reason to hang on to him? Obviously you're the expert. Help me out.

 

I'm inclined to keep Lucroy - even if his bat falters - because his ability to frame pitches has made the Brewers starters much better. If he can get more out of the pitchers than an average catcher, he may be worth keeping around.

 

Should his bat rebound, it is a bonus.

[clancyphile]

But, also Lucroy having a bad year is a results-orientated, offense-only look at his season. His home run to fly ball rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie year of 2010. It's at 4.8%, which is abnormally low for a hitter with a career .428 SLG playing half of his games at Miller Park. His babip this season is 28 points below his career average. His walk rate is equivalent to his career average and his k rate is 1.3% lower than his career average. It's a down year for Lucroy, but not a bad year. And health has played a factor too. If teams were willing to overlook Hamels' struggles in late June & July, then there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to overlook Lucroy's modest struggles, which I think they probably should.

 

Citing an article from April of this year, Lucroy has the most "stolen" strikes in MLB over the past 5 seasons. It's over 1,000, which Baseball Prospectus equates to 18 wins. Teams are willing to pay a hefty price for 3.6 extra wins per season; particularly, for a player who only costs $4 mil next season. Citing a couple of stats you quickly glanced at off of Lucroy's ESPN profile page isn't an accurate method to assess his value in the trade market. Additionally, the other catchers in baseball who excel at pitch framing have OPS in the 500s. Lucroy's a god send. His return on the open market would be/should be substantial.

 

If Lucroy is notching an extra four wins a season - and he makes the pitching staff better, I'm inclined to fork over the cash to keep him. Furthermore, with the infusion of young pitching into the AA/AAA levels of the minors, and the young rotation the Brewers currently have - maybe spending the cash to keep Lucroy is a good investment. I think that Lucroy is probably shaving about .25 points of ERA off the Brewers pitchers... which could entice another team to overpay for a pitcher or two.

[Ennder]

Every single World Series winner in the past 10 years had added players at or near the deadline. They just aren't always high profile. Parra is a 4th OF on a hot streak, not a key piece of the team.

 

The only plausible ways to win it all for us is to push all in on years we look set to make a run or to do massive overhauls constantly until we hit the jackpot on a few prospects at the same time.

[Thundercat32]

But, also Lucroy having a bad year is a results-orientated, offense-only look at his season. His home run to fly ball rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie year of 2010. It's at 4.8%, which is abnormally low for a hitter with a career .428 SLG playing half of his games at Miller Park. His babip this season is 28 points below his career average. His walk rate is equivalent to his career average and his k rate is 1.3% lower than his career average. It's a down year for Lucroy, but not a bad year. And health has played a factor too. If teams were willing to overlook Hamels' struggles in late June & July, then there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to overlook Lucroy's modest struggles, which I think they probably should.

 

Citing an article from April of this year, Lucroy has the most "stolen" strikes in MLB over the past 5 seasons. It's over 1,000, which Baseball Prospectus equates to 18 wins. Teams are willing to pay a hefty price for 3.6 extra wins per season; particularly, for a player who only costs $4 mil next season. Citing a couple of stats you quickly glanced at off of Lucroy's ESPN profile page isn't an accurate method to assess his value in the trade market. Additionally, the other catchers in baseball who excel at pitch framing have OPS in the 500s. Lucroy's a god send. His return on the open market would be/should be substantial.

 

If Lucroy is notching an extra four wins a season - and he makes the pitching staff better, I'm inclined to fork over the cash to keep him. Furthermore, with the infusion of young pitching into the AA/AAA levels of the minors, and the young rotation the Brewers currently have - maybe spending the cash to keep Lucroy is a good investment. I think that Lucroy is probably shaving about .25 points of ERA off the Brewers pitchers... which could entice another team to overpay for a pitcher or two.

 

I agree. In an ideal world Attanasio wouldn't be such a cheapskate. If you look at how fortunate we were with Carlos Gomez, a lottery ticket that cashed in, and what Lucroy blossomed into, I mean, it's exactly what you would hope a young group of prospects would become. You would hope for better than what we've gotten from Segura & you'd hope for better pitching prospects... Although, Odorizzi's been pretty nice, and all you had to do there was just keep him (which I'm going to get flamed for saying that because how could you not deal for Greinke with the 2011 team?)... Anyways, where the Brewers are at now, you're forced to play for 2018 & beyond. You kind of have to suspend belief that Attanasio will ever spend any money to retain productive players too.

[paul253]

Ennder: I disagree that that is the only way for us to win it all. I think in order for us to win it all we have to first and foremost acquire an ace and to have a staff capable of posting an era in the top half of the league. Imagine how good this team could have been from 2007-2011 if they had the pitching to go with the hitting. The Brewers problem has consistently been pitching. But rather than go all in and trade away everyone for a Zack Greinke they need to develop their Zack Greinke so they can keep him for six years as opposed to one or two. that's why I've been so adamant about moving guys like Gomez and Lucroy. Without top ten picks, using them as trade bait is really the only shot they have at getting that pitcher. I'm praying they can get a top five pick next June so they can draft that player but trading Lucroy for one might be the easier and safer route to take. Once you have that and can compliment him with your nelsons and jungmanns and eventually your Mederios and Williams you can win year in year out with the same guys. The key is to constantly recycle those players rather than trying to squeeze every bit of value you can get from them and hang onto them until they are in their mid thirties.

[Invader3K]

 

I agree. In an ideal world Attanasio wouldn't be such a cheapskate. If you look at how fortunate we were with Carlos Gomez, a lottery ticket that cashed in, and what Lucroy blossomed into, I mean, it's exactly what you would hope a young group of prospects would become. You would hope for better than what we've gotten from Segura & you'd hope for better pitching prospects... Although, Odorizzi's been pretty nice, and all you had to do there was just keep him (which I'm going to get flamed for saying that because how could you not deal for Greinke with the 2011 team?)... Anyways, where the Brewers are at now, you're forced to play for 2018 & beyond. You kind of have to suspend belief that Attanasio will ever spend any money to retain productive players too.

 

How exactly Attanasio been a "cheap skate"? Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun. We have signed fairly high dollar free agents like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse in recent years.

 

We'll never be the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but the team's payroll is competitive.

[clancyphile]

If Lucroy is notching an extra four wins a season - and he makes the pitching staff better, I'm inclined to fork over the cash to keep him. Furthermore, with the infusion of young pitching into the AA/AAA levels of the minors, and the young rotation the Brewers currently have - maybe spending the cash to keep Lucroy is a good investment. I think that Lucroy is probably shaving about .25 points of ERA off the Brewers pitchers... which could entice another team to overpay for a pitcher or two.

 

I agree. In an ideal world Attanasio wouldn't be such a cheapskate. If you look at how fortunate we were with Carlos Gomez, a lottery ticket that cashed in, and what Lucroy blossomed into, I mean, it's exactly what you would hope a young group of prospects would become. You would hope for better than what we've gotten from Segura & you'd hope for better pitching prospects... Although, Odorizzi's been pretty nice, and all you had to do there was just keep him (which I'm going to get flamed for saying that because how could you not deal for Greinke with the 2011 team?)... Anyways, where the Brewers are at now, you're forced to play for 2018 & beyond. You kind of have to suspend belief that Attanasio will ever spend any money to retain productive players too.

 

Disagree on the cheapskate portion. Attanasio's been willing to lay down cash to try to win. The problem is that the team needed a retooling after 2013, and it got put off for two years. The good news is that Crew has some prospects that will start coming up in 2016, and others up in 2017/2018.

 

The young starters now in the system (Suter, Davies, Cravy, Jungmann, Johnson, Hader, Wagner) will fit nicely with Nelson and Peralta. Tyler Thornburg might even fit in somewhere, too. That doesn't count some young arms lower in the system.

 

2016 may be a forlorn hope, but in 2017, the Brewers could make the playffs if things come together, and 2018-2021 could be a good run.

[FVBrewerFan]

We're talking about Lucroy but KRod is the "trade that didn't happen" that bothers me. He could still get traded of course. There aren't contenders that couldn't use a closer who is perfect the yr? Even as the 8th inning guy?

[clancyphile]

Ennder: I disagree that that is the only way for us to win it all. I think in order for us to win it all we have to first and foremost acquire an ace and to have a staff capable of posting an era in the top half of the league. Imagine how good this team could have been from 2007-2011 if they had the pitching to go with the hitting. The Brewers problem has consistently been pitching. But rather than go all in and trade away everyone for a Zack Greinke they need to develop their Zack Greinke so they can keep him for six years as opposed to one or two. that's why I've been so adamant about moving guys like Gomez and Lucroy. Without top ten picks, using them as trade bait is really the only shot they have at getting that pitcher. I'm praying they can get a top five pick next June so they can draft that player but trading Lucroy for one might be the easier and safer route to take. Once you have that and can compliment him with your nelsons and jungmanns and eventually your Mederios and Williams you can win year in year out with the same guys. The key is to constantly recycle those players rather than trying to squeeze every bit of value you can get from them and hang onto them until they are in their mid thirties.

 

The thing is, Lucroy can make these starters better with his pitch framing. While his bat may decline - I think the pitch framing will improve over time, and Lucroy will "steal" more strikes - so that he knock s what should be a 3.70 ERA to a 3.30.

 

An extension of $12 million a year for Lucroy, who makes a constant influx of young starters better, might very well be the better bargain over the long haul.

[trwi7]

Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun.

 

Braun sure. I have no idea why you used Lucroy as an example. He's paying him on average $2.2M per year. Even Loria would pay that.