Trading for Parra to improve last year juxtaposed to trading away Gomez for prospects this year

[Thundercat32]

As a Brewers' fan, I'm troubled by what the front office is doing. Not having a long-term plan and/or not sticking to that plan is how you go a decade without making the playoffs. I don't see how you can trade for Parra (giving up Mitchell Haniger, your only piece from letting Prince walk) last year, and then follow that up this year by trading away a centerpiece of your team.

 

Personally, I'm against trading prospects for trade deadline additions. My memory fails me, but I don't think it's led to a team winning in the post-season since maybe the 2009 Yankees? I can't remember who they added at the deadline or if they added someone. It certainly didn't lead to the Giants winning last year, the Red Sox in '13, the Giants in '12, Cards in '11, or the Giants in '10 (although, it almost worked for the Rangers that year adding Cliff Lee). I think it's especially bad for a small market team. You don't see the Rays doing it, for example. I actually hate it for the Astros. Why take the mountain of young, talented, cost-controlled pool of prospects that you have and move them for anyone? Christ Jesus, Houston, you've been bad for this long, you can't wait another 2 years to let these guys mature and start to gel together?

 

I hate it for the Cubs too. Although, trading for Tyson Ross makes a little more sense for them than say the Rangers trading away 6 prospects (SIX!) for Cole Hamels. Because A) Ross is younger & on the way up as opposed to on the way down, and B) the Cubs don't have as many top-tier, near-mlb-ready starting pitchers in their pool of prospects as the Rangers do. That said, Ross is a heavy slider usage SP (throws the slider 36%, which is 5% higher than any other pitch he throws), so the Cubs better find out what Dr. James Andrews customary down payment is because Tyson Ross is on a collusion course for an appointment with the good doctor.

 

Ready for the kicker? Apparently, the Brewers are set to trade Parra now too. SMH (Shake My Head). You gotta be kidding me. The Brewers drafted Haniger because Roenicke's son played with him & loved him, and so did their scouts. So give the guy more than a cup of coffee and 985 minor league PAs (Plate Appearances) before you pull the plug on him. Especially, for a 4th outfielder with a career 721 OPS and 90 wRC+, when the Brewers acquired him, in Gerardo Parra. And what'd the Brew Crew get out of the guy? Last year, when the Brewers were in contention and making their push for the playoffs, they received a total of 134 PAs from Parra. That's what became of the 38th overall pick in the 2012 draft.

 

Now, some may say "Yeah, but Haniger's fallen off a cliff this year". It's true that Haniger was thought of more highly when he was with the Brewers than he has been with the Diamondbacks. I was surprised to see him ranked as only the Dbacks' 28th best prospect by mlb.com. That said, part of his slip has been due to injury, and when he's been healthy he's been good to great. He killed high A for the Diamondbacks this year. He's also only 24 years old. I'm also noticing a trend when it comes to ranking prospects. Look at the current top 100 mlb prospects rankings on mlb.com. Two players, who were just drafted 54 days ago, from this year's draft are among the top 12 players ranked. They're ranked ahead of Michael Conforto and Alex Jackson, both of whom were top 10 picks in last year's draft, and both of whom were vaulted as future perennial all-stars. It seems like a real recency bias. In fact, one of the top players from this year's draft ranked in the top 12, Dansby Swanson, will likely plummet in next spring's rankings because he's already had a setback suffering a mild concussion after being struck in the face with a pitch that required him to get 14 stitches. It's almost like prospects have to show up from day 1 and absolutely crush the minors at every step, like their name is Kris Bryant, or they drop in the rankings. It actually reminds me of how NBA draft prospects are better served to come out as freshman or sophomores rather than stay around longer and have their game picked apart.

 

 

So, here's my question now. What's the point of keeping any valuable asset past the trade deadline? Our best player, Jonathan Lucroy turns 30 next season. Sad to say, but the Brew Crew doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs next year. Who's our best pitcher? Kyle Lohse? Jimmy Nelson? Taylor Jungmann? I'm a Brewers' fan who pays attention to prospects, and I can't tell you anything about Taylor Jungmann. We just gave Pittsburgh Aramis Ramirez on a salary dump. This front office doesn't have any intention of competing next year (which comes one year too late for those of us excited about seeing Haniger patrol right field for the next 10 years in Milwaukee). I mean, seriously; why hold onto anyone at this point? Ryan Braun? Why? To sell tickets next year? Nothing but question marks, as this front office leaves me scratching my head.

 

The troubling thing is we had a great draft last year. We had a good draft this year; although, getting Donny Everett signed is where you take chances, in my opinion, not on Gerardo Parra-type acquisitions. So the kid wouldn't sign for $2.5 mil, then offer $3.5 mil, offer $4 mil, it's cheaper than signing Kyle Lohse types to fill out a rotation in free agency, and it's more likely to lead an organization to the playoffs too. But, I guess I can't fault the front office too much for that; they did select him and make a reasonable offer. I hope they keep taking that approach.

 

We have a good pool of prospects now at least. We certainly have the outfield covered. Trent Clark, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Montee Harrison, among others. Shortstop looks to be in hand too with our best prospect, Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara & Jacob Gatewood behind him in the depth chart; although, Gatewood is unlikely to make the bigs as a shortstop even if Arcia wasn't blocking his path. I like the young crop of arms too. Kodi Medeiros, Josh Hader, Cody Ponce, and a half dozen others. To me, the path is clear. Bolster this young crop of talent and wait for it to mature ala the Kansas City Royals. If they made Lucroy available the return would be astronomical. Ryan Braun lands you a project-able middle of the rotation arm & a project-able bat, at the minimum. I can't believe K-Rod hasn't been traded already. You'd like to think we're trying to move Lohse. I don't see us making him a qualifying offer; at least dear Lord I hope we don't... This team needs to be blown up. This dipping one toe in the pool, but not being able to decide if you want to jump in thing that the Brewers are doing is a recipe for disaster.

[3and2Fastball]

So, here's my question now. What's the point of keeping any valuable asset past the trade deadline? Our best player, Jonathan Lucroy turns 30 next season. Sad to say, but the Brew Crew doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs next year. .

 

They have almost zero chance of a 2016 World Series season

 

Carlos Gomez will be a free agent after the 2016 season

 

They wouldn't have been able to keep Gomez past 2016 anyways. They received terrific young prospects for Gomez & Fiers

[TigerUppercut]

Two things:

 

1. Do you understand how the MLB draft slotting system works?

2. Are you being serious about Haniger patroling RF for 10 years, or was that a joke?

[dlk9s]

Thundercat is back!

 

As if the trade deadline drama wasn't good enough, now we get this?

[Patrick425]

So, you want the Brewers to follow the same trade deadline strategy every year regardless of where they are in the playoff race? So, if they are in the thick of the race but need those one or two pieces to help assure they make the playoffs they should not trade any prospects to do that? We have had this discussion on this site more times than I can count and I am yet to understand the rational of always playing for next year. This year is clearly a "sell" year for the Brewers. Some years are "sell" years and some years are "buy" years. Pretty much every MLB team follows this philosophy. Every year there is a different set of "sellers" and a different set of "buyers" depending on the standings.

[Thundercat32]

So, you want the Brewers to follow the same trade deadline strategy every year regardless of where they are in the playoff race? So, if they are in the thick of the race but need those one or two pieces to help assure they make the playoffs they should not trade any prospects to do that? We have had this discussion on this site more times than I can count and I am yet to understand the rational of always playing for next year. This year is clearly a "sell" year for the Brewers. Some years are "sell" years and some years are "buy" years. Pretty much every MLB team follows this philosophy. Every year there is a different set of "sellers" and a different set of "buyers" depending on the standings.

 

No, I'm not saying that you, necessarily, should take the same approach every year at the trade deadline--although, if your farm system is as strong as the Astros, Cubs, or Rangers, then I am saying you let that play itself out.

 

What I am saying, specific to the Gerardo Parra deal, is that A) you trade for a hitter with a better career OPS than 721 and a higher career wRC+ than 90. Those are journeyman numbers. It's god awful to trade a 1st round draft pick for a player like that. And B) you have a better idea of where you're at in the standings, and what your playoff chances are before you make a deal that diminishes your future. Acquiring Parra last year put the Brewers in contention with the Nationals? the Dodgers? the Cardinals?... Did it even bring them up to par with the Pirates?

 

Honestly, I think it was a desperation play to add a left-handed bat to a right-handed dominated lineup, which demonstrates a lack of foresight by the front office. Not having a quality left-handed bat in the lineup is something that was stated several times by the national media during the 2014 spring training. It hurt the Brewers during the 1st half of the 2014 season. But this front office is reactionary. It does not plan ahead very well at all--if at all.

[tmwiese55]

Right it's completely commonplace. Off the top of my head from WS winners recently, Hunter Pence was a midseason pickup, Matt Holiday too. Boston does it all the time, though I can't think of a significant one in 2013. Rip the Brewers all you want, but the difference between us and perennial contenders is our core was built around hitters and not pitching. Teams like Giants and Cardinals seem to be consistently bringing up their own pitching, they also have the money to keep players too, we don't. TB has brought up tons of pitching but can't pay to keep them. Other than that it's been a revolving door in the playoffs really.

[Thundercat32]

So, here's my question now. What's the point of keeping any valuable asset past the trade deadline? Our best player, Jonathan Lucroy turns 30 next season. Sad to say, but the Brew Crew doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs next year. .

 

They have almost zero chance of a 2016 World Series season

 

Carlos Gomez will be a free agent after the 2016 season

 

They wouldn't have been able to keep Gomez past 2016 anyways. They received terrific young prospects for Gomez & Fiers

 

I love the Gomez trade. I just hate the Parra trade last year. The Gomez trade this year, just highlights how bad the Parra trade was last year from an organizational growth standpoint.

[zzzmanwitz]

 

I love the Gomez trade. I just hate the Parra trade last year. The Gomez trade this year, just highlights how bad the Parra trade was last year from an organizational growth standpoint.

 

Yet we traded Parra for arguably better than we gave up for him...

[I Heart Brewers]

Not sure if serious or what is going on. This thread confuses me...

[Thundercat32]

Right it's completely commonplace. Off the top of my head from WS winners recently, Hunter Pence was a midseason pickup, Matt Holiday too. Boston does it all the time, though I can't think of a significant one in 2013. Rip the Brewers all you want, but the difference between us and perennial contenders is our core was built around hitters and not pitching. Teams like Giants and Cardinals seem to be consistently bringing up their own pitching, they also have the money to keep players too, we don't. TB has brought up tons of pitching but can't pay to keep them. Other than that it's been a revolving door in the playoffs really.

 

Hunter Pence is a good example. However, the Giants got a bargain price for him. Also, they could of dealt Madison Bumgarner back when "Timmay" Lincecum and Matt Cain were the 2 young aces to take the Giants into the post-season for the next decade, but they weren't short-sighted. Too bad for us, because there were rumors of a Corey Hart for Madison Bumgarner deal. The Giants' obviously evaluate talent well, which why they're in the playoffs so frequently... I'd like to know if we ever offered Prince for Bumgarner, though.

 

You are right about the difference between a team being built on hitting vs a team being built on pitching. That's our problem. Also, the Rays lock up who they need to lock up. Archer is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2019 with club options in '20 & '21. Say Medeiros comes up late in '16 and impresses, then starts the '17 season out on a tear, will the Brewers be as wise to lock Medeiros up to a long term, team friendly contract as well?

[Thundercat32]

Two things:

 

1. Do you understand how the MLB draft slotting system works?

2. Are you being serious about Haniger patroling RF for 10 years, or was that a joke?

 

I'm not an expert on the MLB draft slotting system, but I understand it in general terms. What do you perceive me to not understand about it?

 

Why do you think Haniger playing 10 years is a joke? Why is everyone so down on Haniger in this forum? And maybe more importantly why is everyone so high on Gerardo Parra?

[Thundercat32]

Yet we traded Parra for arguably better than we gave up for him...

 

As I posted in the Parra trade thread, it's something I believe happened by total accident. Do you think the Brewers had this plan in place at the time of the trade for Parra?

[Thundercat32]

Not sure if serious or what is going on. This thread confuses me...

 

What's confusing about this thread?

 

All I'm doing is asking "Are we contenders or are we in rebuild mode?"

 

Followed by, "If we are in rebuild mode, then why aren't we dealing Lucroy and Braun? Why is Gomez the only big piece to go?"

[rwa12]

Because Parra's signing has no bearing on signing Everett. Teams are limited to a threshold for draftpicks, independent of the major league payroll. The penalties are pretty severe too. They drafted all those guys in the late rounds hoping one might jump at a check.

 

They traded for Parra last year because they were in playoff position at the deadline, they were trying to add pieces. Haniger is a 4th OF type, Banda was the guy of value they lost in that trade. Assigning player value to where someone was drafted with the Brewers isn't really worth it. They've drafted a lot of duds pretty high.

[tmwiese55]

I think I'd rather have the P we got back for Parra than the OF we gave up to get him too.

 

So you say the Pence trade is ok because it worked? If they had a philosophy like yours that you should never trade it wouldn't have happened, you don't know unless you try.

 

All I was saying, is trades like this have nothing to do with it as all teams do it. FYI, Chris Archer came to TB in Garza deal to the Cubs as again it's commonplace.

 

What were the brewers supposed to do? they hit on all those hitters at the same time but only one P in Gallardo. Welp, it didn't work out because we're week on pitching, we give up and trade everyone or try to make the best of what did pan out and go for it. They were up 1-0 in the NLCS with home field in the NLCS and WS, the players just didn't pull it out. 2012 roster was loaded to compete for it all too but early bullpen collapse killed it.

 

I remember a lot of Prince for Matt Cain talk back in the day.

[zzzmanwitz]

"If we are in rebuild mode, then why aren't we dealing Lucroy and Braun? Why is Gomez the only big piece to go?"

 

I'm not in the front offices, so its purely speculation, but they probably are on the table but the deal isn't right to make.

[tmwiese55]

Yet we traded Parra for arguably better than we gave up for him...

 

As I posted in the Parra trade thread, it's something I believe happened by total accident. Do you think the Brewers had this plan in place at the time of the trade for Parra?

 

Are you serious? They were in first place. Their plan at the time was to make the playoffs and try to win the WS, the team fell apart and here we are Their clear plan right now is to rebuild. I don't know what's not clear about it? Lucroy will be traded in the next year or so, they need him to start hitting again and stay healthy. Braun is it's own separate issue that's been beaten to death on here already.

[Thundercat32]

Yet we traded Parra for arguably better than we gave up for him...

 

As I posted in the Parra trade thread, it's something I believe happened by total accident. Do you think the Brewers had this plan in place at the time of the trade for Parra?

 

Are you serious? They were in first place. Their plan at the time was to make the playoffs and try to win the WS, the team fell apart and here we are Their clear plan right now is to rebuild. I don't know what's not clear about it? Lucroy will be traded in the next year or so, they need him to start hitting again and stay healthy. Braun is it's own separate issue that's been beaten to death on here already.

 

 

Where is this love for Gerardo Parra coming from? I don't think that you were implying it directly, but you're indirectly comparing him to adding Hunter Pence or Matt Holliday. Like I asked Patrick, did acquiring Parra put them in position to contend with the Nationals? the Dodgers? the Cardinals?... even the Pirates?

 

I don't think it did. I think it was a desperate move to add a left-handed bat, a move that had been ignored since spring training. I think they seriously overpaid for a very mediocre 4th outfielder, and I think the increase to their probability of winning the World Series was minuscule.

 

I also think it demonstrates that they do not have an organizational plan. They just react. The Kyle Lohse signing was reactionary. I don't think they had a plan for Prince Fielder. I think they just sat on the pot and couldn't decide whether to [expletive deleted by moderator] or not, and time ran out, so they let him walk... I don't see any evidence, outside of the past 2 drafts, and the Gomez deal that this front office has any consistent idea of what they're doing from one month to the next.

[I Heart Brewers]

Not sure if serious or what is going on. This thread confuses me...

 

What's confusing about this thread?

 

All I'm doing is asking "Are we contenders or are we in rebuild mode?"

 

Followed by, "If we are in rebuild mode, then why aren't we dealing Lucroy and Braun? Why is Gomez the only big piece to go?"

 

Because Braun's contract is an albatross and Lucroy can be moved for prospects at a later date? Also, no one really knows if Doug has tried to trade both of them already. So it's moot to discuss. We have no idea what the market is for those two. Doug seems to be good at getting value in trades and holding firm. Like TT and Hammond are good at drafting.

 

We are in rebuild mode.

 

You wonder about the Parra trade and it being an accident on this return. They were in first place contending for the division when they made that trade. Front office thought it was building for a playoff run. But things didn't pan out end of last year and this year has been a dumpster fire. They realized the window is closed and are rebuilding.

 

My question is, how is that not obvious? There's no conspiracy theory going on here. They made a run last year, didn't work out. Window is now closed. Sell, sell, sell.

[Thundercat32]

So you say the Pence trade is ok because it worked?

 

The Pence trade is acceptable because A) Pence is an all-star level player and Parra is major league defender and a well below league average hitter, B) the Giants were in a better position to compete in the 2012 post-season than the Brewers were to compete in the 2014 post-season, and C) what the Giants gave up to acquire Pence was a better price than what the Brewers paid for Parra.

[craigharmann]

I also think it demonstrates that they do not have an organizational plan. They just react. The Kyle Lohse signing was reactionary. I don't think they had a plan for Prince Fielder. I think they just sat on the pot and couldn't decide whether to S* or not, and time ran out, so they let him walk... I don't see any evidence, outside of the past 2 drafts, and the Gomez deal that this front office has any consistent idea of what they're doing from one month to the next.

 

 

I don't know if they have an organizational plan or not. From looking at things now, the plan is to get as many young guys as possible. It takes 2 to make a trade, so there has to be interest, and it does take work to make a deal. Lohse was a stupid signing, no doubt about it. As for Fielder.....were the Brewers going to give him the insane contract that the Tigers did? And I think there was a bit of sticking it to daddy on Prince's part. There is potential and hope in the minor leagues for the Brewers. I hope they continue to build and stockpile young talented players and we'll see what things look like in 2-3 years.

[tmwiese55]

I didn't compare Parra to being as good as them. Just that it's common and those guys were on recent winners.

 

You say no plan. Here is their plan the last few years: maintain a playoff caliber team as long as possible, on years when things are going well make moves that increase playoff chances. When you're no longer a playoff contender, trade off as much as possible to rebuild for the next run.

[3and2Fastball]

Not sure if serious or what is going on. This thread confuses me...

 

WOAH SOLVVD 2.0 (The Sequel)

[I Heart Brewers]

Not sure if serious or what is going on. This thread confuses me...

 

WOAH SOLVVD 2.0 (The Sequel)

 

No doubt. I kind of feel like a fool for even engaging.