Parra to Orioles for Zach Davies

[brewmann04]

I am wondering if we can have a starting rotation of solid #2-3 w/o a #1

don't forget Medi,Williams and Ponce

[DuWayne Steurer]

I am wondering if we can have a starting rotation of solid #2-3 w/o a #1

don't forget Medi,Williams and Ponce

 

 

The Royals don't have a true "ace". In fact their starting pitching is pretty mediocre, aside from Volquez and Chris Young.

 

Texas certainly doesn't have an ace. Colby Lewis has 17 wins, but he has an ERA over 4.5. Gallardo has been decent this year, but certainly not "ace".

 

The idea that a team has to have a true "ace" material pitcher to compete is a myth. You have to have a good pitching staff. You have to score more runs than you allow.

 

Would it be nice to have a Greinke and/or a Kershaw? Sure, but there aren't 30 of those guys to go around.

 

So...... I think the Brewers are doing fine right now with what they are acquiring and actually developing. Jungmann, Nelson, Davies is a nice start. Be nice if Peralta bounces back next year too. We'll see. There's not an ace in that bunch but if they all hit their ceilings, there's not one in that bunch that can't be at least a #3 type pitcher.

[Brewser5]

I am wondering if we can have a starting rotation of solid #2-3 w/o a #1

don't forget Medi,Williams and Ponce

 

 

The idea that a team has to have a true "ace" material pitcher to compete is a myth. You have to have a good pitching staff. You have to score more runs than you allow.

 

I only agree that you need a solid rotation to get you to the playoffs. If you want to win a WS you need an ace.

 

2014 - Giants - Bumgarner

2013 - Red Sox - Lester

2012 - Giants - Bumgarner

2011 - Cardinals - Carpenter

2010 -Giants - Lincecum

2009 - Yankees - CC

2008 - Phillies - Halladay

 

Not only do they have an ace, but for the most part they had an awesome supporting staff with the exception of the 2011 Cards.

 

I could go on, but if you want to win a WS, you are going to have to beat an Ace with an Ace, and I do not see that anywhere in the Brewers farm system.

[tmwiese55]

And the Royals traded for Shields and Cueto in order to get an "ace". Rangers did the same with Hamels. You can argue if they should've or if it worked but they still went for it.

[reillymcshane]

 

I only agree that you need a solid rotation to get you to the playoffs. If you want to win a WS you need an ace.

 

2014 - Giants - Bumgarner

2013 - Red Sox - Lester

2012 - Giants - Bumgarner

2011 - Cardinals - Carpenter

2010 -Giants - Lincecum

2009 - Yankees - CC

2008 - Phillies - Halladay

 

 

Note: 2008 Phillies had Hamels. Halladay was still with Toronto.

[markedman5]

With Jeffries Knoebel, Smith and now Barrios I like the look of our bullpen going forward as well. Young controllable power arms.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Is Jon Lester an "ace"? He's good, but he's not in the category of guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, or the like. His career ERA+ is 121, which is good, not great.

 

To me, Jon Lester is exactly what you're talking about when you say a solid #2 type guy.

 

The 2005 White Sox best pitcher was Mark Buehrle. He's a really good pitcher. Ace? He's just a solid guy that's been around a long time.

 

The 03 Marlins won it all with Pavano, Brad Penney, and Mark Redman leading their staff.

 

Is it possible? Yes. Is it better to have an ace than not? Absolutely. Is that something the Brewers can likely afford? Have to look at the hand you're dealt. THe Brewers can either generate a guy like that or...... wait. They can only build guys like that from within. They will never purchase them on the open market.

[Brewser5]

 

I only agree that you need a solid rotation to get you to the playoffs. If you want to win a WS you need an ace.

 

2014 - Giants - Bumgarner

2013 - Red Sox - Lester

2012 - Giants - Bumgarner

2011 - Cardinals - Carpenter

2010 -Giants - Lincecum

2009 - Yankees - CC

2008 - Phillies - Halladay

 

 

Note: 2008 Phillies had Hamels. Halladay was still with Toronto.

 

Sorry. Good Call. Still holds true to my point.

[Brewser5]

Lester is on a different level when it comes to playoffs. And if you don't qualify Lester as an ace, Buchholz had a 1.74 ERA that year. I think that constitutes as ace.

 

Buehrle had his best statistical year in 2005. I would say he put up ace like numbers that year.

 

My point is, I don't think we fare well if we ever got into the Playoffs with Jimmy Nelson as our number 1 and he has to go toe to toe twice with Kershaw/Bumgarner/Lester/Wainwright/Etc. An ace is vital in my mind.

[reillymcshane]

Have to look at the hand you're dealt. THe Brewers can either generate a guy like that or...... wait. They can only build guys like that from within. They will never purchase them on the open market.

I agree with this. We have who we have. You roll with it, do your best, and hope for a bit of luck.

 

The 2011 Cardinals 'ace' - Chris Carpenter - had an ERA in the regular season of 3.45 with a 3.5 WAR (a team best). They won with average pitching and good hitting (5th most runs in the league) that was even better in the playoffs.

 

Sure I'd rather trot out a guy like Kershaw or Hamels to the mound, but just having them there doesn't guarantee anything. You still have to play the game.

[reillymcshane]

 

My point is, I don't think we fare well if we ever got into the Playoffs with Jimmy Nelson as our number 1 and he has to go toe to toe twice with Kershaw/Bumgarner/Lester/Wainwright/Etc. An ace is vital in my mind.

You are correct, it's highly unlikely we'll fare well with Jimmy Nelson as our #1. Some people see #2 pitchers in guys like Peralta, Nelson and Jungmann. While each might have a season or two that good at their peak, none of them project (in my mind) as consistent #2 pitchers.

 

We throw around how guys are #1 or #2 types in our minor league system - but I don't see that in anybody at this time. Perhaps that's just the cynic in me - we love to have hope. But we haven't produced a top of the rotation guy since Ben Sheets. Gallardo was close, but not quite. Before that - Higuera? I see hope in some of our minor league guys, but I'm just a lot more cautious about what guys project to be.

 

At this time, Milwaukee needs to hope that guys like Nelson can step up their game and become more than just #3 types. Add in some of the minor league arms, such as Lopez, Ponce and Kodi, and perhaps in a 2-3 years things gel together and you have a couple of the guys emerge as #2s and a couple as #3s, and then our offense does well and players stay healthy. With luck, someone special may emerge that we weren't expecting - like Kluber and Keuchel have done for their teams.

 

This is why I've advocated for trading for big upside pitchers - even guys down in A ball - over lower ceiling (but closer to the majors) type players. The Dodgers aren't going to trade Urias at this point. Teams just don't do that. But maybe you can get a Syndergaard type player like the Mets did - while he's at A ball. It's easier said than done, but it took stones on the Mets part to trade away the winning Cy Young pitcher.

 

Ultimately, you are right. We can't go toe to toe with guys like Kershaw. And maybe we won't have anyone that can in the near future. But maybe we can have better bats than the Dodgers. And better #2 and/or #3 pitchers. And play better defense. That's the hand we've been dealt. It's tough, but it's not impossible. For a team like Milwaukee, it will always be tough. We are always going to limited by finances, and signing Greinke as a FA isn't likely. Or signing a pitcher to a $30M a year extension isn't likely. Again, we just have to deal the cards we are played.

[Thurston Fluff]

Lester is on a different level when it comes to playoffs. And if you don't qualify Lester as an ace, Buchholz had a 1.74 ERA that year. I think that constitutes as ace.

 

Buehrle had his best statistical year in 2005. I would say he put up ace like numbers that year.

 

My point is, I don't think we fare well if we ever got into the Playoffs with Jimmy Nelson as our number 1 and he has to go toe to toe twice with Kershaw/Bumgarner/Lester/Wainwright/Etc. An ace is vital in my mind.

 

I don't see why someone like Nelson or Peralta couldn't have the same type of season as any of the other guys you mentioned had. I think there is a difference between being an ace and having an ace like season. We certainly do have the pitching that can have that type of season even if their career isn't ace like.

I'd also don't see any reason that Nelson shouldn't be able to go toe to toe with the likes of Kershaw for one game. After all it isn't like Kershaw hasn't been beat in the playoffs by lesser pitchers before. He's actually been fairly awful in the playoffs so far. As Brewer fans we know all too well Greinke hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in the post season either. It's one game anyone can be an ace for a day. Even Suppan was an ace for a day. The difference between a true ace and a good #2 isn't what they do in one game or even one season. It's what they do over a career. I don't really think that is relevant to post season hopes.

[monty57]

We are always going to limited by finances, and signing Greinke as a FA isn't likely. Or signing a pitcher to a $30M a year extension isn't likely. Again, we just have to deal the cards we are played.

 

Being at the start of a rebuild, we should be years away from worrying about signing a free agent ace or trading for an ace. We're about looking at how much talent we can get in return for our MLB trade chips and whether we can take advantage of our high draft picks. Doing those properly should diminish the need to look outside the organization for our top players in the future.

 

That said, when we are once again in the top of the standings come trade deadline, I hope we do not trade our Syndergaard for someone else's Dickey to increase our chances in that year. To that example, the Mets look like they will be a lot better for a longer time since they stopped trying to outspend everyone and instead made some shrewd moves to pick up a lot of young pitching talent.

[bork]

I'll say one thing about Davies: he's the only Brewers pitcher in 3 weeks to throw a quality start (and he has 3 of them). And it's been something lacking all year (only 60).

 

And while not a great indicator of success, it means that in 62% of the games this year, we most likely had a hole early or went to the bullpen early.

 

Hopefully, this will be one area of improvement next year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Thing about Davies from what I've seen is everything is knees or below. I don't care how hard or what type of pitch you throw, if the ball ends up there you are more than likely going to have success.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Thing about Davies from what I've seen is everything is knees or below. I don't care how hard or what type of pitch you throw, if the ball ends up there you are more than likely going to have success.

 

 

His GB/FB ratio is pretty decent (small sample alert). If he can continue to live down in the zone, he should be able to continue to have some success.

[jerichoholicninja]

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Not sure how this compares to other pitchers but it seems to backup my casual observation that Davies throws everything low.

[markedman5]

Jungmann finished the season looking more like the mediocre pitcher he was in the minors.

 

Still not sold on him as a dependable rotation arm next year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Taylor was gassed. There was no reason for him to make those last few starts.

[monty57]

Taylor was gassed. There was no reason for him to make those last few starts.

 

I guess you just have to hope that he can use them as a learning experience, and getting shelled doesn't turn into a negative for him.

[tmwiese55]

Jungmann finished the season looking more like the mediocre pitcher he was in the minors.

 

Still not sold on him as a dependable rotation arm next year.

 

Maybe you don't have the re-build in you then, haha. Get used to living through some tough spells from young players. It's part of the process. Can't just give up on everyone if they have a rough couple of weeks, even the best go through it.

[markedman5]

I'm fine with the rebuild....I'm just not convinced that Jungmann will be a key piece to it.

 

He showed nothing in the minors to make anyone believe the fast start to his major league career was anything more then a fluke.

 

Hope I'm wrong.

[Roderick]

Taylor was gassed. There was no reason for him to make those last few starts.

 

Well if we are going to compete you do have to play 162 games. He only increased his innings by 25 from last year. He is in his physical prime, I would be very disappointed if the pitching results are non-injury, physically related (gassed).

 

He has a 9.53 ERA for the last five starts.

 

He did much better overall then I would have guessed from the results he posted in the minors, so I am not complaining. But you have to wonder if the hitters have figured him out a bit and he is coming back to where we assumed he would be. I don't see how you can do more than pencil him in for competing for a spot in spring training next year (especially if we haven't unloaded Garza and spots are at a premium).

[tmwiese55]

You have to let guys pitch through it and see how they do. Some will improve and become good. Some won't. This is the process. I mean did anyone really think he was going to be a low 2 era guy for his career? They've figured him out a bit, now he has to keep getting better. This is what sports competition is all about. We're in a wasted year next year, you coach him as best you can let him go. It's that simple.

[MNBrew]

Everything being reported today by Haudricourt & McCalvy is that Jungmann, without overtly saying so, is very much saying he's fatigued. His September performances bear that out. Yes, the innings aren't up drastically, though they're still up 15% from last year and he's pitching a month longer than he has any other season.

 

So many were convinced that when Mike Fiers stunk it up at the end of his first real big-league run that started SO hot, that it was really a case of the emperor's new clothes -- yeah, he's just not really that good. Time has proven otherwise, and fatigue then was likely the issue for him just as it's been with Jungmann over his past 5 starts.