Open for business (part 3)

[Boomer5]

Gomez and Luc should be traded to the highest bidder. Both of their skill sets are age/style of play dependent. I want no part of their next contract.

 

Parra's is not.

 

This is not to say I wouldnt trade Parra - Any team should look to increase their portfolio of assets by shrewd moves - but anything less than the Zobrist package is not something the Brewers should consider.

[bill hAll Star]

Gomez and Luc should be traded to the highest bidder. Both of their skill sets are age/style of play dependent. I want no part of their next contract.

 

Parra's is not.

 

This is not to say I wouldnt trade Parra - Any team should look to increase their portfolio of assets by shrewd moves - but anything less than the Zobrist package is not something the Brewers should consider.

 

Parra also does have some speed in his game that could decline.

 

What's the point of keeping him if you want to trade those other guys, though? He'll just toil away on a terrible team.

[tmwiese55]

exactly. Signing him means you're going to stay down the path of trying to put together a .500ish roster and hope things fall right to win 88 games and make the playoffs. Which means you have to keep Gomez and Lucroy or it's pointless. Looking at the past two months or so, getting above .500 next year doing that plan isn't really crazy to pull off but you're really not building a true contender. And since Gomez will almost assuredly wait to hit FA without signing an extension so he'll be gone after next year so it's really only one more year of potentially making the playoffs if everything falls right. And with STL, CHC, Pit remaining strong it's just not likely.

[trwi7]

airfigaro

 

It seems like the Brewers I have a lot of players that should/could be traded. Gomez is the most valuable and will likely catch the greatest haul, it also might be unlikely to go. It seems like Lind and Parra should be shopped for the best offer. Is there any reason Melvin should not trade those two? What are the odds that Gomaz get shopped?

 

J.P. Breen

 

It’s always important to remember that it takes two to tango at the deadline. Just because Gomez would hypothetically bring the best haul, doesn’t mean anyone is willing to pay the necessary price.

 

In terms of Lind and Parra, the Brewers should absolutely be shopping the pair. I believe the organization is reluctant to move Lind for two reasons: (1) the feeling I get from talking to people is that ownership is reluctant to engage in a true fire-sale, both due to business and competitive reasons; and (2) the Brewers have had such difficulty finding quality first-base production since Prince Fielder departed, and the club doesn’t wish to immediately throw that away and restart their search for a big-league first baseman.

 

If I had to guess — and it’s what I would call partially-informed speculation — I’d say Adam Lind is still wearing a Brewers uniform in August, unless a team backs up the truck and unloads the farm.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/29/all-questions-answered-trade-deadline-2015/

 

So depressing.

[narwhalattack]

airfigaro

 

It seems like the Brewers I have a lot of players that should/could be traded. Gomez is the most valuable and will likely catch the greatest haul, it also might be unlikely to go. It seems like Lind and Parra should be shopped for the best offer. Is there any reason Melvin should not trade those two? What are the odds that Gomaz get shopped?

 

J.P. Breen

 

It’s always important to remember that it takes two to tango at the deadline. Just because Gomez would hypothetically bring the best haul, doesn’t mean anyone is willing to pay the necessary price.

 

In terms of Lind and Parra, the Brewers should absolutely be shopping the pair. I believe the organization is reluctant to move Lind for two reasons: (1) the feeling I get from talking to people is that ownership is reluctant to engage in a true fire-sale, both due to business and competitive reasons; and (2) the Brewers have had such difficulty finding quality first-base production since Prince Fielder departed, and the club doesn’t wish to immediately throw that away and restart their search for a big-league first baseman.

 

If I had to guess — and it’s what I would call partially-informed speculation — I’d say Adam Lind is still wearing a Brewers uniform in August, unless a team backs up the truck and unloads the farm.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/29/all-questions-answered-trade-deadline-2015/

 

So depressing.

 

I truly hope the FO isn't THAT delusional.

[bill hAll Star]

That just makes so much sense. Irrationally hold on to a player so that he can inevitably get hurt/leave for nothing/stay for way too big of a contract after a lost year in 2016.

[monty57]

both due to business and competitive reasons

 

I'd say that leans heavily on the "business reasons," as any belief in the "competitive" is contrived by the marketing team to get fans to buy more tickets (i.e. business reasons).

 

Attanasio is deathly afraid of losing ticket sales, and has admitted that he believes fans are more apt to come to games if they know the players on the field. It's not about being competitive, it is about putting a team on the field that will cause the fans to continue to walk through the gate.

 

This is why I continue to relate Attanasio's methodology with that of the Cubs under Wrigley, Inc. I used to work with a guy who worked in the Cubs' organization at the time, and that is how they operated. It doesn't lead to winning baseball, only to owner profits. I'm all for the owners making money, but when that is their only goal, I can spend my money elsewhere.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I truly hope the FO isn't THAT delusional.

 

 

See. I actually think they are.

 

 

 

........ sadly.

[3and2Fastball]

This thread is so depressing. I'm holding out hope that the Brewers can really be sellers in the next 48 hours. Otherwise we are quickly becoming a AAAA team and the best thing I can hope for is that Attanasio sells the team

[trwi7]

More depression.

 

Gary Bongiorno

 

How involved do you see Mark A being in these trades? It appears that his decree to not hold a full-scale fire sale is hampering the Brewers ability to reload properly. Are we seeing another Herb Kohl????

 

J.P. Breen

 

Mark Attanasio is very involved in the decision-making process in Milwaukee. I think his reluctance to engage in a fire-sale, though, isn’t as tied to business concerns as it is his inability to deal with losing. Any total rebuild will almost certainly require a handful of dreadful seasons, and Attanasio has said that he doesn’t want to own a losing club. That, I think, has been the driving force behind this constant need to compete. His competitive streak necessitates the chance of winning. The business benefits of avoiding a “rebuild” are just icing on the larger cake.

 

It’s largely speculation on my part, but I’ve been told by many that Attanasio is very involved in decisions and constantly pushes for contention. He wants to win. He wants to attend meaningful baseball games in September and October at Miller Park. He lives and dies with the performance of the club. He’s a die-hard fan. In some ways, I don’t blame him for such an attitude, but it’s obviously unrealistic for a team like Milwaukee to be in contention every single season. He must show a willingness to sell when necessary.

[3and2Fastball]

More depression.

 

Gary Bongiorno

 

How involved do you see Mark A being in these trades? It appears that his decree to not hold a full-scale fire sale is hampering the Brewers ability to reload properly. Are we seeing another Herb Kohl????

 

J.P. Breen

 

Mark Attanasio is very involved in the decision-making process in Milwaukee. I think his reluctance to engage in a fire-sale, though, isn’t as tied to business concerns as it is his inability to deal with losing. Any total rebuild will almost certainly require a handful of dreadful seasons, and Attanasio has said that he doesn’t want to own a losing club. That, I think, has been the driving force behind this constant need to compete.

 

 

Well, and I mean this sincerely, hopefully the Brewers can lose enough in the next several years so that Mark will sell the team. Because the current model clearly isn't working. He needs to either change his ways, or sell.... otherwise we'll be constantly in this .500 team "catch lightning in a bottle" hoodwink that he is perpetuating on himself and the fanbase.

 

Mark Attanasio is his own worst enemy.

[tmwiese55]

More depression.

 

Gary Bongiorno

 

How involved do you see Mark A being in these trades? It appears that his decree to not hold a full-scale fire sale is hampering the Brewers ability to reload properly. Are we seeing another Herb Kohl????

 

J.P. Breen

 

Mark Attanasio is very involved in the decision-making process in Milwaukee. I think his reluctance to engage in a fire-sale, though, isn’t as tied to business concerns as it is his inability to deal with losing. Any total rebuild will almost certainly require a handful of dreadful seasons, and Attanasio has said that he doesn’t want to own a losing club. That, I think, has been the driving force behind this constant need to compete.

 

 

Well, and I mean this sincerely, hopefully the Brewers can lose enough in the next several years so that Mark will sell the team. Because the current model clearly isn't working. He needs to either change his ways, or sell.... otherwise we'll be constantly in this .500 team "catch lightning in a bottle" hoodwink that he is perpetuating on himself and the fanbase.

 

Mark Attanasio is his own worst enemy.

 

I get where this line of thinking comes from and agree they should bite the bullet here for a couple years. But does everyone not remember the 20 years before he came? I mean, we have a guy who wants to win badly, that's generally a good thing and better than someone who doesn't care, puts out a crap team and collects the profits based on revenue sharing and franchise value going up. Maybe he bought the wrong team if he went into with that mindset but ease up a bit, the guy is trying to make a winner in the smallest market. Beats the heck out of what we had before. Some of the posts read like he's some joke of an owner like the Marlins, Clippers, etc. I bet if he knew the Dodger were coming for sale he'd have waited a few years, seems like he fits better for a team with those kind of resources.

[3and2Fastball]

One of the very worst things any fan can do is say "well yeah but it was better than the 20 years before Mark came along....." Oh man thats even more depressing. I seriously might need a vacation from the Brewers and this Board.

 

I was a Packers fan through the 70's & 80's. If Ron Wolf had achieved a .500 record in a few seasons and gotten one playoff victory and 2 playoff appearances in his time as a GM would I have been satisfied with saying "well at least it was better than the 70's & 80's!?" No

 

Let us please not set the bar at the Selig-Prieb era.

[TheCrew07]

Hopefully this puts an end to the "there were no good trades out there" excuse.

[markedman5]

@jcrasnick: A MLB exec on Gerardo Parra: "I wonder if the Brewers over-played their hand on him. I just expected him to be gone by now.''

[tmwiese55]

All I'm saying is these posts are acting like this guy is some kind of bumbling idiot when he's overseen the second best run the team has ever had. This is the first time he's had to go through this situation as owner, give him a chance and hope that someone who is heavily involved, cares, and is willing to spend money more than anyone here ever has will figure it out and learn from mistakes and the next run ends in a WS. Of course he'll make mistakes, everyone does, but the guy is trying though. Maybe support him instead of calling him a moron.

 

I guess the other attitude is better, "if you don't win the WS in your first 10 years you're an absolute failure and should lose the team".

[MrTPlush]

@jcrasnick: A MLB exec on Gerardo Parra: "I wonder if the Brewers over-played their hand on him. I just expected him to be gone by now.''

 

That is pure speculation. Nothing more than the stuff we spew on this forum.

[gregmag]

I think danzig was the voice of reason above, as he so often is. As to the guys we control for another year -- Gomez, Lind, Rodriguez -- whether or not we trade them by the deadline is much less important than what happens with the front office over the winter. Given the big variable of a likely new GM hire, it's not possible to say confidently that waiting 'til the winter to trade those guys is a bad idea, especially if you're someone who doesn't trust DM to make good deals.

 

Now, it's possible that Mark A. won't allow DM or his replacement to trade those guys now or over the winter. That would be a bigger problem, and it would validate a lot of the angst people are expressing. But we can't know that until the winter.

 

Parra we'll know about sooner. Until Friday, though, I can't take anyone's conclusory judgment seriously. We don't know what DM has passed on. We don't know what offers are on the table. The comments from analysts and anonymous insiders amount to nothing -- sometimes less than nothing, in the case of sources who have motives to posture.

 

Don't get me wrong; I'm climbing the walls here. Also, I want deals to happen now, because that would suggest that smart people thought we'd never get better deals than we're getting now. Waiting 'til the winter to find out the team's true philosophy would suck. But that's all cognitive bias. My inner rational guy is telling my inner wall-climbing guy to chill out.

 

Just one other thing about Mark A. I've said this before, but I think it's worth repeating every once in a while. People, especially smart, successful people, learn from experience. Maybe Mark A. believes, at this moment, that rebuilding is a fool's errand. I get that (though I disagree with it); hell, we're less than a year removed from leading the division. But as others have noted, our division is a beast now. A couple of seasons of getting creamed without a rebuild should convince a smart businessman like Mark A. to change his approach. What's more, he may already be starting to learn and adapt. We don't know. To put it a different way, Mark A. isn't stupid.

 

What scares me is the possibility that Mark A.'s conservative approach to the team might be informed and rational, in the sense that he'll make more money if he can keep the team consistently mediocre than if he shoots for a championship. If that were true, then we wouldn't be dealing with the imagined problem that he's stupid; we'd be dealing with the very real problem that his rational incentives diverged from ours. I really hope that's not the case.

[FVBrewerFan]

If I had to guess — and it’s what I would call partially-informed speculation

 

That's the only line in his entire diatribe that means anything to me.

[Austin Tatious]

One or more GM is whining in the media trying to embarrass Melvin because he doesn't like Melvin's ask for certain guys. We heard it on Gomez yesterday and we heard it today on Parra. This is analogous to a basketball coach lobbying in the press for calls the next game from the refs.

 

The Brewers are run by a high end businessman in Attanasio. They aren't here for the pleasure of other ball clubs. The Brewers will make a trade when they get value. I will be royally pissed off if the Brewers don't get value in a trade. Getting multiple lower ceiling guys does nothing for me. That's what the Brewers did from 1993-2005.

[I Heart Brewers]

Much of what happens in the next 48 hours will determine how much interest I have in the Brewers over the next few years. I'm grew up a fan and will always be one but if they do nothing and all it does is piss me off then there is no reason to tie myself up in knots over them. I have plenty of other teams and hobbies to fill my time.

[MrTPlush]

I'm not going to lose my mind if the deadline is quite minus the rentals...but if we go into next season with Lind and Gomez I will be quite concerned.

[paul253]

if we only see parra moved or worse yet nobody moved then I am done with this franchise. I refuse to be a fan of a club that employs the "lets just throw out a team that can hover around .500 so people still come to games" strategy. It's an insult to true baseball fans. Why should I pay $36 for two crap tickets, plus $12 to park my car half a mile away and $8 for a beer to watch some mediocre team playing in a taxpayer funded stadium hover around .500? Forget it. I have other stuff I can waste my money on.

 

The saddest thing about this all is that the strategy for long term success is fairly simple. I'm not saying doing the actual winning is easy but figuring out what to do is. In fact we saw it happen not too long ago. You take a really bad team and draft high ceiling players. You grab as many of those guys as you can get and hold onto them. Then when they all hit the majors you supplement them with complimentary pieces and maybe a few expensive free agents. Hopefully this leads to success. Eventually you either win or you fire your GM and bring in someone who can better evaluate talent. And, win or lose, when your young guys start to get old and/expensive you move them for more young pieces.

 

We saw in the late 2000s and early 10s what happens when it all comes together. You take young home grown guys, guys we got by being really bad for a few years, guys like Fielder Braun weeks hardy hart and lucroy and supplement them with others to make a good team. Unfortunately we were limited by our lack of ability to find young pitching. But the mistake the Brewers made then, and have been making ever since, is their refusal to move the old, expensive talent for younger guys. I understand holding onto fielder but they waited too long to move hart. They waited too long to move weeks. They waited too long to move Axford. More recently they've waited too long to move Gomez. They've waited too long to move Lohse. And they are in the process of waiting too long to move lucroy and Parra. All these guys could have brought back high impact talent and the extent of what we've gotten for them so far has been a long reliever. But at least we're winning right? Nope. They are 25 games under .500 since their last playoff team. Two winning seasons in there but only a combined six games over .500 for those two years.

 

So we are what we are. A team that might hover around .500 and be no real threat to make the playoffs. And apparently we have an owner that is ok with that and will be ok with that until attendance suffers. So if what I think will happen at the deadline does happen then I'll do my part. Granted the 10-14 tickets I'm good for each year is really meaningless but I refuse to contribute one more dollar to this sorry franchise. If I'm wrong and something big happens then I'll be very pleasantly surprised and will change my tune. Unfortunately the reports we've been reading don't seem to point in that direction.

[tmwiese55]

If you think about, the current team could compete if they just had an ace pitcher like a Bumgardner in place of Lohse. SF just won the world series starting Ishikawa in left due to one hot pitcher. Our 'team' is better than theirs, as weird as that is to say I think you know what I mean. But they have Bumgardner and actually play smart and generally put the ball in play more consistently, though we have more power. That's how close things are in baseball, unfortunately we all know that ace isn't walking through the door anytime soon. And this generally solid core lineup is about to dwindle with Gomez leaving, Braun aging, Ramirez gone, etc. It all comes back to not developing pitching to match up with the core at the right time, the current guys up look somewhat promising though missing an ace type, but they're a couple years too late.

 

If you take away just Sept and April (still including some rough stuff around) they're 112-103, 14-34 in those two months. I'd really like to know what happened there behind the scenes with Roenicke to lead to such apathy.

[trwi7]

If you think about, the current team could compete if they just had an ace pitcher like a Bumgardner in place of Lohse.

 

If you take away just Sept and April (still including some rough stuff around) they're 112-103, 14-34 in those two months. I'd really like to know what happened there behind the scenes with Roenicke to lead to such apathy.

 

Oh, so all we need to do is get rid of our old, crap free agent signing pitcher and develop a top 10 pick into an ace?

 

And if we take away our two awful months we're an 84 win team? [sarcasm]Yay![/sarcasm]