Open for business (part 3)

[JackNicholson1974]

I generally do not care if the Brewers keep all their players or trade all their players - whichever is fine with me.

 

However, if Melvin truly is looking to trade guys and does not - Lind, Parra, KRod as lesser parts and Gomez, Lucroy or even Braun as larger parts, it would concern me that other teams are getting similar deals done and Melvin cannot close his deals.

 

The Rockies moved 6 years of Tulowitzki and now they might be dumping CarGo. If they can unload CarGo then I wonder why we cant unload Braun.

 

We cannot do things half-way. Tear it all the way down Miami Marlins style, trade them all. I think they would stink for 2015 (duh) and 2016 but I think by 2017 they would be a team on the come. I think this happens faster than fans think, especially post PED testing. This is a young mans game now.

 

Lind, Parra, KRod, Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Fiers, maybe even Peralta. Ship them out, load up on so many prospects it makes it hard to find a place to play them all. Enough should make it that the team will be young and competitive and rebuild that base we had in 2005. With the freed up salaray relief you supplement with a veteran starter here and a veteran hitter there.

[monty57]

It wouldn't surprise me if the only move they do is Parra, and I would be shocked if Parra isn't traded.

 

I have been cautiously optimistic all season that they would make some trades that would help the future, but I could easily see them setting their price unrealistically high, saying "we tried to trade them but couldn't find what we wanted," and signing more aging vets in the offseason to "compete" in Gomez's last season. Kind of a "mini-Fielder" situation, only with a lot less talent with which to compete.

[paul253]

I think that's just it. Melvin setting his price too high. Last year was a dud at the deadline too. I don't think that is a coincidence. Just the reports that he was looking for "multiple" pieces for Fiers, a 30 year old mid to low end starter, simply because he's controllable tell me he overvalues team control. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying trade something just because. But be realistic with what you expect to get back.

[pacopete4]

I'll trust Melvin on trades. He does pretty well in that category. If he feels we can get more, maybe we can.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have a feeling that we aren't going to make any more deals now. We will end up being stuck with Parra for the season because Doug can't get a fair trade for him and He moves luc and carlos in the off season

 

As I have pointed out numerous times, it wouldn't be the end of the world if they can't move Parra. I think it's more likely than not that he will, but any 28 year old coming off the season Parra is having is going to get a QO as a FA. I put that out there a month ago when his OPS was just a bit over .800 and all I got was skepticism in return but he's added about 50 OPS points since then. For the first time last night BA and BS speculated that Parra is going to be in high demand as a FA. That's a signal to me that it's been suggested by someone in the know that a QO is a consideration at least. At the very least, this possibility and his hot July, have upped the Brewer asking price on him. If they get it, great. If not, the payoff is a bit down the road in the form of a high draft pick or he signs with the Brewers and they deal Davis. In either instance they will add quality to their system.

[3and2Fastball]

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Brewers overvalue their players. Along with ludicrous signings of aging players past their prime

(Ramirez, Lohse, Suppan) one of the biggest mistakes of the Melvin era has been extending too many of their own players to bloated contracts instead of recycling them and getting younger.

 

It is indeed a young player's game now.

[LouisEly]

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Brewers overvalue their players. Along with ludicrous signings of aging players past their prime

(Ramirez, Lohse, Suppan) one of the biggest mistakes of the Melvin era has been extending too many of their own players to bloated contracts instead of recycling them and getting younger.

I've seen calculations that one WAR is worth about $7M, give or take $1M. Ramirez had a lifetime WAR (according to BR) of 7.3 with the Brewers; at $7M/WAR, that's a value of roughly $51M. Ramirez got a 4 yr/$50M deal; the Pirates are paying $3M of it. He didn't cost a draft pick. He was worth his contract.

 

Lohse's career WAR with MIL is 4.6; while he's having an awful year, he was worth more than his contract the first two years of the deal. At $7M/WAR, that's a lifetime value of $32.2M; he signed for $33M. While he cost the team a draft pick, he is helping the Brewers get a better draft pick (likely top 3-5 and the bonus pool that comes with it) in 2016 instead of being a .500 team with a mid-first-round pick.

 

Suppan absolutely was not worth it. But I hate to disappoint the Lohse and Ramirez haters; they have generally been worth their contracts.

[3and2Fastball]

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Brewers overvalue their players. Along with ludicrous signings of aging players past their prime

(Ramirez, Lohse, Suppan) one of the biggest mistakes of the Melvin era has been extending too many of their own players to bloated contracts instead of recycling them and getting younger.

I've seen calculations that one WAR is worth about $7M, give or take $1M. Ramirez had a lifetime WAR (according to BR) of 7.3 with the Brewers; at $7M/WAR, that's a value of roughly $51M. Ramirez got a 4 yr/$50M deal; the Pirates are paying $3M of it. He didn't cost a draft pick. He was worth his contract.

 

Lohse's career WAR with MIL is 4.6; while he's having an awful year, he was worth more than his contract the first two years of the deal. At $7M/WAR, that's a lifetime value of $32.2M; he signed for $33M. While he cost the team a draft pick, he is helping the Brewers get a better draft pick (likely top 3-5 and the bonus pool that comes with it) in 2016 instead of being a .500 team with a mid-first-round pick.

 

Suppan absolutely was not worth it. But I hate to disappoint the Lohse and Ramirez haters; they have generally been worth their contracts.

 

 

It completely depends on how you look at it. The MLB game is changing quickly. Ramirez & Lohse played zero playoffs games with the Brewers. Other than fooling the fanbase into a "Brewers are in it to win it" false hope mentality, their contracts ended up being completely pointless. That $88 Million (!) would have been much better spent on investing in young International talent. And losing a 1st Round pick to sign Lohse was horrendous

[pacopete4]

It should be no surprise to anyone that the Brewers overvalue their players. Along with ludicrous signings of aging players past their prime

(Ramirez, Lohse, Suppan) one of the biggest mistakes of the Melvin era has been extending too many of their own players to bloated contracts instead of recycling them and getting younger.

I've seen calculations that one WAR is worth about $7M, give or take $1M. Ramirez had a lifetime WAR (according to BR) of 7.3 with the Brewers; at $7M/WAR, that's a value of roughly $51M. Ramirez got a 4 yr/$50M deal; the Pirates are paying $3M of it. He didn't cost a draft pick. He was worth his contract.

 

Lohse's career WAR with MIL is 4.6; while he's having an awful year, he was worth more than his contract the first two years of the deal. At $7M/WAR, that's a lifetime value of $32.2M; he signed for $33M. While he cost the team a draft pick, he is helping the Brewers get a better draft pick (likely top 3-5 and the bonus pool that comes with it) in 2016 instead of being a .500 team with a mid-first-round pick.

 

Suppan absolutely was not worth it. But I hate to disappoint the Lohse and Ramirez haters; they have generally been worth their contracts.

 

 

It completely depends on how you look at it. The MLB game is changing quickly. Ramirez & Lohse played zero playoffs games with the Brewers. Other than fooling the fanbase into a "Brewers are in it to win it" false hope mentality, their contracts ended up being completely pointless. That $88 Million (!) would have been much better spent on investing in young International talent. And losing a 1st Round pick to sign Lohse was horrendous

 

You can't just keep on shoving money into scouting/developing and just hope for the best. Sometimes you have to pay for a player. They did with Lohse and Ramirez and they lived up to their contracts for the Brewers. Justifying it by playoff appearances is silly. There was more to the story than the play of these two players.

[JackNicholson1974]

This really shouldnt be about paying Ramirez and Lohse. Those deals worked out, as LouisEly has shown, this should be about what to do going forward. The nucleus isnt there to reload with another Lohse or Ramirez. Instead we need to tear it down to the studs and rebuild. Too many holes and too many older players to supplement with a few more vet signings.

[tmwiese55]

one of the biggest mistakes of the Melvin era has been extending too many of their own players to bloated contracts instead of recycling them and getting younger.

 

Besides Bill Hall? Even that was only like 4 years and under 30 mil. Maybe Rickie but that was mostly injuries and he did make an ASG in there and I wouldn't call his deal 'bloated', wasn't even 10 per year if I remember. JJ, didn't extend. Hart, exact right amount really. Prince, no extension. Gallardo, about perfect. Lucroy, about perfect assuming they don't hand him a big deal now. Gomez, about perfect and possibly not extended quite enough. CC, no deal. Greinke, no deal. Aoki, traded instead of signing. All the mediocre "closers" over the years never got big deals.

 

Can rip the aging pitcher signings if you want but I don't really see this area as a problem.

 

Braun's is it's own situation that's already been beaten to death.

[MrTPlush]

Everyone needs to just take a dang breather. It is the 28th and most trades happen in the last 24 hours. The world has not ended.

[monty57]

Everyone needs to just take a dang breather. It is the 28th and most trades happen in the last 24 hours. The world has not ended.

 

Like Tom Petty said, the waiting is the hardest part. As I mentioned, I'm still cautiously optimistic that the trades will happen, but other teams are making big moves, while the Brewers seem to be waiting to the last minute. With all the potential moves on the docket, Melvin is juggling a whole lot of pieces and time is running out. Hopefully that doesn't bite them in the butt.

 

Years of wishing the Brewers would put more thought toward to future has me skeptical, and every hour that passes just brings the anxiety up a little more that the deadline is going to pass without us doing anything meaningful.

[BillScottCanRake]

I'm not sure if there is a better way to link to a tweet, but per this Ken Rosenthal tweet:

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

[pacopete4]

I'm not sure if there is a better way to link to a tweet, but per this Ken Rosenthal tweet:

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

 

This I'm okay with. If he was a FA at the end of the season I wouldn't be but since he had one more year, there's always the winter meetings if they aren't blown away by Friday.

[MrTPlush]

I'm not sure if there is a better way to link to a tweet, but per this Ken Rosenthal tweet:

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

 

I was a bit concerned with this, but asking prices can drop dramatically at the deadline. They may be just playing the market trying to get teams to truly give them their best offer just to pounce on one on Friday. They should not necessarily want to trade him or be motivated to, that just makes teams think you value them less. Or you know...Attanasio doesn't want to trade away a popular player with 1.5 years left.

[monty57]

I'm not sure if there is a better way to link to a tweet, but per this Ken Rosenthal tweet:

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

 

That's pretty much what I meant by comparing it to the Fielder scenario prior to the 2011 season. Melvin asked for two young, MLB ready starting pitchers, which is unrealistic for any playoff hopeful team to give up. He then said he tried but couldn't trade him, so he completely changed direction by extending Hart, trading the farm for Greinke and Marcum, and letting Fielder walk as a free agent.

 

So, we're "open for business." What short-term veteran SP do you think we can get for a package built around Arcia?

[MNBrew]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

 

...and that's just fine. Gomez is worth a large haul, and that's what they should expect. In the meantime, he's under contract at a good price through next year, so there's still plenty of time and "go" time on a trade doesn't have to be right now if there's no worthwhile deal to be had.

 

One of the positively applicable mantras on this site pertains to getting fair value in return for assets in trades. If the right value isn't there, Melvin should & very likely will just walk away -- works just like buying a car since, as we know, sometimes walking away increases the salesperson's interest in closing the deal. As much as many on this site mistrust Melvin to their core, he's proven pretty darn good overall at pulling the trigger when the deal is right.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm not sure if there is a better way to link to a tweet, but per this Ken Rosenthal tweet:

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 27 minutes ago

Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high -- think they’re hoping to get blown away.”

 

Doug Melvin's track record speaks for itself. What is it again? 1 playoff series win in 37 years of front office work?

 

 

So, we're "open for business." What short-term veteran SP do you think we can get for a package built around Arcia?

 

Arcia, Gilbert Lara, Coulter & Jungmann for Cliff Lee?

[danzig6767]

 

It completely depends on how you look at it. The MLB game is changing quickly. Ramirez & Lohse played zero playoffs games with the Brewers. Other than fooling the fanbase into a "Brewers are in it to win it" false hope mentality, their contracts ended up being completely pointless. That $88 Million (!) would have been much better spent on investing in young International talent. And losing a 1st Round pick to sign Lohse was horrendous

You can feel the Brewers spent poorly on free agents, but teams can't just spend whatever they want on international young players. There are assigned amounts per team. You can't decide to spend say 35 million on a big horde of international young players vs signing a free agent. Cuban players being the exception.

 

As for wanting the team to truly rebuild instead, maybe try writing/sending emails to Attanasio if he accepts them. He's the main guy who will decide if the team only trades spare parts like Ramirez and Parra, hoping yet again to catch lightning in the bottle next year with only a few tweaks to the roster.

[BrewCrewForever]

I am fine with waiting to deal Gomez in the offseason. But if they don't trade Parra, Cotts, Broxton and Lind now, they're crazy. K-Rod should also be shopped.

[3and2Fastball]

As for wanting the team to truly rebuild instead, maybe try writing/sending emails to Attanasio if he accepts them. He's the main guy who will decide if the team only trades spare parts like Ramirez and Parra, hoping yet again to catch lightning in the bottle next year with only a few tweaks to the roster.

 

Oh I've written him plenty of emails.

 

These next few days are really a crossroads for the Attanasio era (I doubt he's going to be a longterm owner. Think he'll cash out in less than 10 years). Are they really going to rebuild or are they still deluding themselves & their fans in thinking they can contend?

[ewitkows]

Why would he cash out? He's already doubled his money and it keeps on growing.

[Invader3K]

Why would he cash out? He's already doubled his money and it keeps on growing.

 

Agree with this. Nothing in the way Attanasio has operated since buying the team has indicated he intends to "cash out" soon or be a "short term" owner.

[TheCrew07]

I highly doubt that any potential return for Gomez this off-season would include a pitcher as talented as Hoffman. That's just wishful thinking...

 

So far Hoffman, Toussaint, and Sean Manaea who was the best value in the 2013 draft have been traded. There just aren't many pitching prospects with impact potential on teams that would be willing to trade them.

 

Young impact pitching is a finite market each year and if you snooze you lose. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but realistically how many more young pitchers are possibly going to change hands?