Taylor Jungmann comp

[DHonks]

Thinking about all the comments about TJ likely regressing and being a 4-5 starter, another pitcher popped in my head as a possible comp to look at. TJ was an extreme ground ball pitcher in the minors. Sometimes that can make a guy's numbers look worse due to quality of fields, defenders, etc. The Dbacks had a player that also had mixed results as a minor leaguer but exploded onto the scene as a dominant big leaguer. He was basically a one-pitch guy, throwing a dominant sinker, won a Cy Young Award (and was runner-up twice).

 

I'm thinking of Brandon Webb. It would be amazing if TJ turned out like that, but I don't expect it. I'm just trying to say that perhaps minor league numbers don't mean everything. Nothing about Webb screamed of potential ace. Maybe it's hard to quantify the future success of hard-throwing ground ball pitchers.

 

Regardless, I'll be at the game tonight. Hopefully it's a win. Would be frustrating not to take 3 of 4 from the Dbacks.

[trwi7]

Webb struck out more, walked less and got way more ground balls than Jungmann ever has.

[DHonks]

comparisons: Minors/MLB 1st season (so far)

K/9

Jungmann 6.8/6.6

Webb 8.1/8.6

 

K/BB:

Jungmann 1.83/2.6

Webb 2.53/2.53

 

BB/9:

Jungmann 3.7/2.5

Webb 3.2/3.4

 

HR/9:

Jungmann 0.6/0.3

Webb 0.3/0.6

 

H/9:

Jungmann 8.5/6.6

Webb 9.0/7.0

 

WHIP:

Jungmann 1.358/1.019

Webb 1.360/1.151

 

GO/FO:

Jungmann 1.97/1.56

Webb N/A/2.88

 

By no means are the numbers exact comparisons. But they are fairly similar. Both have strong groundball tendencies. Both allow fewer hits in the majors than minors likely due to better defenses and field conditions. Both allow fewer baserunners. Webb may have struck out a few more, but Jungmann walks less (so far). Both very stingy with home runs allowed. Obviously we'll have to see what the future holds for Taylor. I remember being really excited by some dominant efforts by Eldred, Woodard, and Peterson as rookies, so by no means do I expect that this version of Taylor Jungmann will stick with us for years. But I'm trying to find a comp that makes sense and offers hope. I think/hope I found a decent one.

[SRB]

I don't think their numbers look that similar, but Brandon Webb is at least an example of a pitcher whose minor league track record was not that impressive who blossomed into an elite pitcher.

[logan82]

That is a huge difference in GO/FO.

[DHonks]

logan, I was viewing it as his GO:FO will likely improve with time given past results in the minors. Plus, if you use percent instead of ratio, you find Jungmann getting 61% of his outs via the ground and Webb getting 74% of his outs on the ground. Jungmann's numbers are what Milwaukee is looking for...Webb's sinker was amazing! Assuming some progression to TJ's minor league ratio and he'd be near 65% of the time. That's still pretty impressive.