trading season and Brewer future

[MNBrew]

All I was doing was questioning why you didn't like Davis over his OBP when half the team is just as bad or worse. One of which you had on the Brewers future plans. Because from what it sounded like to me that was your whole reason to consider to trade him.

 

Also I didn't say Pentecost would move through the minors fast over 100ABs in A-. I mentioned it, but it was just an add on statement. I actually didn't say why I thought he would move fast. My reasoning is the fact he was a college bat and did well in his first taste of the minors overall. He could probably be ready in 2-3 years if he comes back healthy. Of course he may or may not go fast through the minors, but a lot are expecting him to do so.

I think it's possible even the Brewers aren't fully sure what kind of long-term major leaguers Segura, Gennett, or Davis will be. There's ample evidence on both sides of the coin for all three of them. Of the three, only Segura seems to be a legit possibility at more than one position, and even that's more speculation than anything clear or concrete, which is what I was addressing. Of the three, I'm least thrilled with Davis' overall game and its seemingly lack of growth over the past two years (the BB increase this year is nice, but that strikes me as the only substantive growth, which hardly qualifies as his whole game growing), and that's why I thought he might be trade-worthy . . . which of course would still seem premature if not even excessive if Parra AND Gomez are both dealt as well.

[monty57]

Regarding KCBrewerfan34's initial post:

 

While posters have said that everyone should be looked at in terms of trade, I don't think anyone believes that the Brewers will completely "blow things up." We should remember, however that we are going to lose some guys at the end of this year and next year whether we trade them or not.

 

For the rotation, Melvin would love to trade Lohse and/or Garza, but no one wants them. That pretty much leaves us either trading one of Fiers or Peralta (more likely Fiers) or taking Lohse out of the rotation (cut him or make him the long man). As Fiers is already pretty old, trading him now could easily be a "peak value" trade, netting us a pretty good package of young talent, while setting us up for a 2016 rotation of Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Garza and another young arm (Cravy or someone). I don't think that's a playoff rotation, but it allows us to get a good look at some young arms, and hope Garza can pitch himself into a position where we could trade him. Fans would also still have some names they know, which is important for Attanasio's ticket sales. By 2017, we will know more about the young pitchers to see if we can build a "homegrown" rotation going forward to get out of the habit of signing mid-30's retreads to multi-year deals.

 

Lucroy isn't going anywhere this year, but the team scoffed at his attempt at getting an extension. That leads me to believe that he will be traded but it will probably be next deadline or next offseason (after the 2016 season). The delay is probably for ticket sales, but he should help the young pitching staff though next year. I just hope he can maintain his trade value. I also doubt Segura will get traded, more because he's lost value since his hot streak earlier this year and the Brewers couldn't get enough to merit trading him. He will be a capable stopgap until Arcia is ready.

 

That leaves us with the possibility of trading Lind and Gomez in addition to the guys who aren't signed past next year. Both Lind and Gomez are under contract for one more year, so they are really the guys who you look at and ask if the playoff possibility is so strong next year that you give up the chance to trade them now, when you would get a lot more for them. I don't think it is, so I am all for trading both of them. Lind should be able to bring back a good prospect... someone who is very likely to give you value at the MLB level, while Gomez should be able to bring back multiple Top 100 guys, with one of them in the Top 10/25 realm.

 

So, we would trade Parra, Cotts, and Broxton who will be gone anyways, trade Fiers before age starts lowering his value, and trade Lind and Gomez who are only under contract for one year (a year in which the majority of fans don't believe we'll be in the playoff hunt anyhow). We should get some good young players from all those moves, while still appeasing the fans who only buy tickets to see names on jerseys they recognize by holding on to a lot of names they know, including most of the rotation and "star power" in Braun and Lucroy.

 

Then next year, we trade Segura when Arcia is ready, hoping that he builds his trade value up, and trade Lucroy, as he'll be in a similar position to where Gomez is now. That hopefully will bring back a lot more talent. If the baseball gods are in a good move, we might even be able to trade Garza if he shows life next year.

 

By 2017, we would still have Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta, and hopefully others will fill in from the farm and the aforementioned trades. We'll see who steps up from the farm in to fill all the positions, but we will still have Braun, Davis and Gennett, and Arcia should be a big addition when he's ready. We have a bunch of guys with potential like Coulter, Taylor who could help for league minimum, and again, we should get help in the aforementioned trades.

 

Because so many guys will be young (pre-arby/arby), our payroll will be low, and if we could get some big talent back in trade, I could see us starting to see good things again fairly quickly. I don't expect to see the need to print World Series tickets in 2017, but we could be watching some legitimately good young pre-arby talent on the field getting their feet wet. The biggest hindrance I see is not getting value back from some of our big trade chips. Without the inflow of young talent from trades of guys like Gomez and Lucroy, I don't think we have a strong enough farm to be good again for a long time.