trading season and Brewer future

[KCBrewerfan34]

With

 

Nelson (showing up big)

Jungmann (pleasant surprise but small sample)

Fiers (solid)

Peralta (has top of the rotation stuff)

Garza (question mark but his stuff plays)

 

and a good bullpen do the Brewers really need to unload everybody? That rotation looks pretty good to me and they have an excellent bullpen. If they can acquire a good 3B and maybe address LF (not sold on Davis) I think you go to war next year with the nucleus of our team. See if someone will bite on Segura and get Arcia in at SS.

 

They have a lot of money coming off the books in Lohse, Ramirez & Broxton and would be in a position to spend via FA or take on salary via a trade

 

 

Ive changed my thought in regard to blowing things up. I would check on LuCroy and see what his price tag is now.

 

 

GO BREW

[PeaveyFury]

I don't think they need to unload EVERYBODY, but I do think they need to identify that 2017 is the year that they can most likely be somewhat competitive. And with that in mind, they should look to move anyone that at least isn't under contract through then (ie, Gomez), or someone blocking the place of a piece that will be a part of that team and beyond (ie, Segura).

 

I won't lose sleep if they decide that they won't get the best value right now for guys like that who aren't FA's at year-end, but I would hope they're seriously shopped this offseason to free up playing time for guys like Arcia, free up payroll, and to continue to rebuild the system.

 

And I think relying on Garza is a bad idea- between injuries and aging, we'll probably need a better arm to replace him in 2016 and beyond.

[benji]

IMO they only way they can truly compete is to get an Ace.

I believe the offense will be fine provided they find a decent 3b. Keep Lind, Gomez, Lucroy and sign Price for example which makes Peralta Fiers Jungmann Nelson slot down. They would be very competitive in 2016.

Of course I doubt they could sign Price and I think the future of the club would be hurt by not getting young players for expiring contracts.

[JohnBriggs12]

IMO they only way they can truly compete is to get an Ace.

I believe the offense will be fine provided they find a decent 3b. Keep Lind, Gomez, Lucroy and sign Price for example which makes Peralta Fiers Jungmann Nelson slot down. They would be very competitive in 2016.

Of course I doubt they could sign Price and I think the future of the club would be hurt by not getting young players for expiring contracts.

 

Hernan Perez just might be that decent 3B. He's done nothing so far in a Brewer uniform to indicate he's not.

 

If the rotation of Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Fiers, and Garza stays in tact, and they hold on to Lind, they can be competitive early next year, provided they find a way to bring back Parra or find and adequate guy to replace Gomez. Gomez is the only guy that gets the prime talent back in return.

 

A lineup of Lucroy catching, Perez at 3B, Segura or Arcia at SS, Gennett at 2B, Lind at 1B, Davis in LF, Parra or Gomez or some average type in CF and Braun in RF might not scare a lot of teams but with a solid rotation, it's good enough to stay close in the first half and in today's game that's really the objective starting a season. The system is getting stronger, and a year from now they will have the ability to add in July if they're close. The rest of the league isn't that strong.

 

Nelson is an emerging top of the rotation pitcher. It remains to be seen if he goes all the way to ace, but when he's on, he has ace like stuff.

[DHonks]

Cf could go to Schafer or Wren. In particular, Logan's defense is outstanding, and he may improve to adequate offensively with playing time. I'm not sold on Davis. He seems to get slightly better each year, but we need a bigger jump. If he makes a big jump, I'd deal him right away.

[paul253]

Doug? Mark? Is that you guys?

 

In all seriousness we could probably be ok for one more year if we keep Gomez and Lind and the rotation. But is that really what you want? One more "if everything goes as planned we might make the playoffs" season? Forget it. Gomez is gone after next year and we better get more than a comp round pick for him. Jungmann is pitching way over his head and could easily slip back to being that 4-4.5 era guy we saw his entire minor league career. We need to get younger and get impact players. Moving Gomez is probably the only way we're gonna even sniff a prospect with #1 potential, especially now that we're in one of our patented "too late to make a difference but plenty of time to ruin our draft position" hot streaks right now. As far as I'm concerned they've already waited too long to trade Gomez and need to do so asap. Parra needs to go. Segura needs to go. Hell Id trade blazek too because I think he's pitching way over his head. Get young guys to compliment your young guys and build a team that can compete on an annual basis. I'm so friggin sick of this below average product they keep throwing out there thinking they need 75 wins to keep attendance up.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers are 11 games under .500 and way out of the playoff race. The only good team they have a winning record against this season is the Cubs and that will likely change.

 

The Brewers pitching staff ranks 18th in MLB so far this year. Any sort of thought that this current pitching staff is strong enough to compete in the postseason is likely made without delving deeper into the reality of the stats.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

There are pieces of the current pitching staff that would have value moving forwards (Jungmann, Nelson, Peralta, Smith, Jeffress) if serious upgrades were made to other parts of the staff.

 

In order to acquire top flight pitching we absolutely must trade Gomez & Lucroy and would be wise to trade Braun as well. All 3 are on their decline anyways, and would be fairly doubtful to be huge contributors once the Brewers are ready to make a run again in 2017-2018. Trading Parra & Lind is just common sense. Trading Fiers would be wise, in my opinion too

[igor67]

It's not outside the realm of possibility, A big key in my mind is trying to give some of these youngish guys on the bubble a chance to develop and see what they can do. If a Perez or Dominguez can match Aramis' offense, but with better defense that could make a difference if Arcia hits like he has with that defense. Their are a number of other young arms to take a longer look at as well. It's a good reason not to just dump everything right away. You can hold out for good value on guys who would be around next year, and deal only if the value is very good while you wait and see how guys play in the second half, and if you don't see much then you still have plenty of a window to get solid value for those other guys.

[pacopete4]

Personally I've always been against a complete rebuild. Just don't feel it's necessary. That said, there a guys we definitely should move right now (Parra, Broxton, Cotts), and there are guys that probably should be moved by next year (Lind, Segura, Gomez, Lucroy, Garza). We need Tyrone Taylor, Reed to come through in the OF and we need Arcia to be the real deal at SS. A catcher is going to have to be signed or traded for most likely as well as 1B and maybe even 3B. But there are definitely ways to put a team out to win even next year.

[trwi7]

Not at all interested in giving this group "one more year." They've had four and haven't made the playoffs.

[Jenkins5]

I'm hoping DM hold strong to his not motivated to sell stance until Friday. Most often by doing that, some team will panic and over spend. If that doesn't happen, with front office changes coming possibly this off-season... Keeping some of these pieces for a GM to decide his vision for future isn't a bad 2nd option either. Just don't sell off unless u close the deal you wanted.

 

Really, if we go in to next season with our roster we will be in same situation we have been in for awhile. We will be a streaky team who has no ability to be consistent. Team is build to win and lose in bunches.

[MrTPlush]

I want to build a team that everyone looks at and thinks, "Wow that team is really good." not "If everything goes right they COULD stay in the race."

 

I will pass on this trying to compete next year. I have watched that fail for 4 years.

[SRB]

That's a pretty mediocre rotation, to be completely honest. Who is our ace, Mike Fiers??

[superfly]

I wonder if we might catch lightning in a bottle and get Broxton out of here somehow. Seems like he's regained his old form of late, and has an ERA in the mid 2's for the month of July.

[NievesNoNO]

It's not so much that they NEED to unload everyone but they are a fair bit behind the talent of most of their division. They need to take advantage of the opportunity that is presenting itself. Get those hungry playoff teams to give some young talent. As others have said, I don't want to run the same group out there next season only to get similar results. Now is the time to shake things up a bit.

[MNBrew]

I tend to agree with much of the spirit of the opening post, though I'd suggest Gomez is the guy to trade rather than Lucroy, especially with the dearth of big-time offensive bats available on the market (& the # of teams needs offensive help) vs. the larger number of supposedly available pitchers. . . . Gomez should net a greater haul than Lucroy IMO, and unless GoGo mutes Boras altogether, I have to think he's a goner after next year.

 

With Ramirez already gone, the guys I think they should look to move are...

 

definites: Parra, Lohse, Broxton, & Gomez

probably: Cotts, plus maybe Garza

 

Two guys I think they ought to think about also moving in the right circumstances are...

 

1. Khris Davis (like the power, dislike the plate discipline, esp. so since his OBP isn't near good enough if he's not offsetting that deficit in his game by hitting lots of HRs)

2. Sardinas (unless Segura really proves he's not part of the long-term answer at 2B &/or 3B)

 

(** I really like how Lind's produced at 1B as one of our best all-around offensive players. But I'd be tempted to live with Rogers & Clark (or Rogers & Peterson) at 1B if trading Lind can net a really good haul (cue Melvin's "not motivated to move him"). Even though his numbers profile historically as more of a platoon guy, he's also got an .868 OPS playing everyday, and I can live with that quite happily, especially at his current price.)

 

The holes I see the needs to find answers for in 2016 would then be...

 

- a couple BP spots (our GM's annual creativity project)

- a rotation spot (maybe)

- 3B (if Perez and/or Segura don't slot there more permanently)

- CF or LF if both Gomez & Davis are traded (assuming Peterson plays one of those spots)

 

And that's a fill-able list of holes, especially if Melvin makes some good trades over the next week & before 9/1.

[igor67]

Broxton strikes me as a guy who gets dealt in August after the other names have been dealt. After the early season hiccups he has been pretty good again. A contender with an injury is likely to find him a useful player at a very low cost at that point.

[MrTPlush]

MNBREW,

 

You go on to insult Khris Davis for his OBP, which has vastly improved this year and some of that has to be legit, but you talk about putting Jean Segura at 3rd/2nd. That just makes no sense to me. Jean Segura has less than half the walks Davis does with twice as many at bats. Jean Segura is by far the worst starting player and hitter on this team. His OBP barely nudges over .300 despite a .275 average...YIKES. The guy shouldn't even be starting at SS let alone 3B or 2B. Also your other mention to take over 3B has also proved nothing in the OBP department past AVG(small sample alert). Might want to trade Gennett too as his OBP is lacking just as bad, though you did talk about Segura at 2nd base at one point.

 

Sad we are trying to throw Davis under the bus despite only one full season under hit belt. Khris Davis is a solid player with room to grow I would not be trading him unless I got a really good offer.

[LouisEly]

So long as Lucroy isn't asking for anything ridiculous (both length and annual salary, not signed past age 35), I think they can get by with extending Lucroy so long as they get good value for Parra, Gomez, K-Rod, Lind, Fiers, and Garza. I've said this before, but I hope the Brewers explore adding some of their C-level prospects in trades with those guys to get better prospects in return.

 

That being said, you still listen to offers for Lucroy and pull the trigger if anyone is willing to overpay, but it's so hard to find good catching and good catching is so important to a young pitching staff (or any staff) that losing Lucroy could hurt the rebuild as much as it could help.

[paul253]

I think two guys the Brewers should consider moving are Fiers and Blazek. Toronto is apparently interested in Fiers but Melvin is asking for multiple pieces in return. I would think it would be smarter to ask for one higher rated player than multiple lower rates players. Fiers is under team control for awhile yet but he's already 30. It would seem that he's a perfect "sell high" piece right now. Same goes for Blazek. He's got great numbers but he hasn't pitched in many high stress situations. I think you could get a team to overpay for him.

[MrTPlush]

A good sell high reliever would be Will Smith.

[PeaveyFury]

Toronto is apparently interested in Fiers but Melvin is asking for multiple pieces in return. I would think it would be smarter to ask for one higher rated player than multiple lower rates players.

 

Do we know that they're not asking for one higher rated player plus a lower rated player? I don't really see the logic of asking for a one for one deal, unless it's for a guy like Norris straight up.

[MNBrew]

MNBREW,

 

You go on to insult Khris Davis for his OBP, which has vastly improved this year and some of that has to be legit, but you talk about putting Jean Segura at 3rd/2nd. That just makes no sense to me. Jean Segura has less than half the walks Davis does with twice as many at bats. Jean Segura is by far the worst starting player and hitter on this team. His OBP barely nudges over .300 despite a .275 average...YIKES. The guy shouldn't even be starting at SS let alone 3B or 2B. Also your other mention to take over 3B has also proved nothing in the OBP department past AVG(small sample alert). Might want to trade Gennett too as his OBP is lacking just as bad, though you did talk about Segura at 2nd base at one point.

 

Sad we are trying to throw Davis under the bus despite only one full season under hit belt. Khris Davis is a solid player with room to grow I would not be trading him unless I got a really good offer.

MrTPlush, you might want to read my post a little more carefully before suggesting I'm throwing Khris Davis under the bus. I put Khris Davis in the category that it might be worth trading him under the right circumstances. You're connecting lots of dots on your own here which had nothing to do with my post or the thinking behind it. That only serves to discredit the points you're making.

 

Your post could give the impression you're a Davis fan/advocate. Well, if so, to elaborate briefly... I like what Davis can do when he's playing well, but he's 27 and is in the middle of a 2nd straight rather pedestrian year overall outside of his HR power (HR rate) and now not-horrid walk rate, and I'm just not sold on him as a bona-fide long-term part of the Brewers' core. Possibly entertaining trade offers for Khris Davis would be a position-player equivalent of the ongoing Mike Fiers discussions with Toronto (cue DM: "We're not motivated to move him.")

 

That you raised a question of small sample size re: Segura at other positions -- which has been speculated rampantly since the Brewers got him, yet with little (any?) evidence of him playing positions other than SS -- seems ironic given that in the Gomez/K-Rod-to-Toronto thread you predict that Max Pentecost should move up fast because he was good for (what was actually less than) 107 ABs in A-ball in spite of injuries that have kept him off the field all year . . . and with nothing that credibly justifies that expectation.

[MrTPlush]

All I was doing was questioning why you didn't like Davis over his OBP when half the team is just as bad or worse. One of which you had on the Brewers future plans. Because from what it sounded like to me that was your whole reason to consider to trade him.

 

Also I didn't say Pentecost would move through the minors fast over 100ABs in A-. I mentioned it, but it was just an add on statement. I actually didn't say why I thought he would move fast. My reasoning is the fact he was a college bat and did well in his first taste of the minors overall. He could probably be ready in 2-3 years if he comes back healthy. Of course he may or may not go fast through the minors, but a lot are expecting him to do so.

[adambr2]

Cf could go to Schafer

 

Ugh. No thanks. Not interested in going down that road again. Not unless we're full out rebuilding and just need a stop gap for a couple years in the meantime.