Change in philosophy?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Im just wondering if this draft signals a change in the teams drafting philosophy? Keith Law compared Laporta to a Greg Colburn/ Scott Hatteberg type of player. This completely sounds like the type of guy that Sal Bando would have picked. This type of low ceiling drafting is what got this team into the mess that I had hoped was cleaned up. With the seventh pick in the draft you have to take the guy with the most upside a guy like Parker or Heyward. Both of those guys have the chance to be stars and LaPorta seems like a guy that wont get much better. This team has had success drafting guys like Prince Fielder that had the upside of major league all stars. To take the moneyball approach and draft guys that dont have high ceilings is a sure way to guarantee mediocrity for years to come. Seriously if LaPortas upside is that of Scott Hatteberg then it is indeed a terrible pick and has me questioning if the Brewers are going to take the low ceiling college players in the future. All in all this pick is very disappointing.

[Never Outhustled]

It looks like a change in philosopy at 1st glance, but the team did offer over slot to HS LHP Casey Crosby, a raw hard thrower, so its likely just luck it turned out this way. Hopefully they convinced some talented HS players who were passed because of signability to take there money over night.

[PeaveyFury]

Keith Law compared Laporta to a Greg Colburn/ Scott Hatteberg type of player. This completely sounds like the type of guy that Sal Bando would have picked.

 

I think that's a bad comparison, as the guys that Bando picked didn't even turn into Scott Hatteberg-type players. Guys like Williamson, Dunn, and Green never even made more than a couple hundred AB's in the majors (or for Green, none).

 

Of course if LaPorta turns out like Geoff Jenkins, a Bando draftee that also played LF out of college, then I think we've got a winner.

[Never Outhustled]

Of course if LaPorta turns out like Geoff Jenkins, a Bando draftee that also played LF out of college, then I think we've got a winner.

 

Its interesting you bring up Jenkins, because he was slammed for his defense when he was drafted, many calling him a DH, much like they say about Laporta. Your right, if Laporta turned out to be a less strike prone version of Jenkins, that would be a very successful pick, as Jenkins was also fasttracked.

[gregmag]

In his interview, Jack Z. definitely said the Brewers had changed their philosophy, but not quite in the way bbc is suggesting. They're going for some more advanced players because they want to fit guys into the next wave of talent that's coming up, talent that can help the Brewers either as players or as trade bait during what the brain trust sees as the present 5-year window to win some titles.

 

I think bbc raises some legit concerns, but as Peavey suggests, there's a big range of outcomes in the world of polished college hitters. The Brewers obviously think they got something like the next Geoff Jenkins with La Porta, not the next Scott Hatteberg (let alone Antone Williamson). I think this is a very defensible approach -- to draft a guy who has, say, a 60% chance to become Geoff Jenkins (or Lance Berkman?) in two or three years over a guy like Heyward who has maybe a 25% chance to become Ken Griffey Jr. in four or five years. (Obviously I'm pulling those numbers out of my butt, but I suspect they reflect what the organization is thinking).

 

Another reason to be okay with this approach is that we aren't just stacking the top of our system and setting the organization up for a talent drought in five or six years. As things stand, we have very few bats in the upper levels but quite a few intriguing hitters at WV and Brevard. Bringing in a few advanced hitters still leaves a big group of upside youngsters behind them.

 

Greg.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I look at the seventh pick in the draft as a chcnce to get a potential superstar. Guys like Porcello, Parker, and Heyward have that type of potential while LaPorta seems like an easy sign with out the potential to get much better. I think we made a big mistake not taking one of the high school kids with all star potential. I am also not real excited about any of the first few picks. I really hope that this organization doesnt become like Oakland where we pass up the high ceiling high school players for the Scott Hattebergs of the world.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I really hope that this organization doesnt become like Oakland where we pass up the high ceiling high school players for the Scott Hattebergs of the world. ]

 

I guess I'm not sure I understand your comparison. Scott Hatteberg was a player Oakland acquired because his OBP was undervalued.

 

I would think their abilities to draft the Barry Zitos, Nick Swishers, Mark Mulders, and Tim Hudsons of the world would have a lot of people envying the Athletics' ideas about drafting.

[Team Canada]

They're going for some more advanced players because they want to fit guys into the next wave of talent that's coming up, talent that can help the Brewers either as players or as trade bait during what the brain trust sees as the present 5-year window to win some titles.

 

 

Exceedingly sensical.

[Trowekamp]

I agree Moneyball is about finding the undervalued attributes of players...

 

If you look at the first round there was not very many of any power bats drafted. Some will develop but if the Brewers walked away from the draft with the power bat in the first round than I am fine with the draft.

 

If you look at their system now they have 2 polished hitters (LaPorta and Gillepsie) who could contribute in 1 - 2 years. and a some higher ceiling players (Cain, Fermaint) who could contribute in 2 - 4. I think it balances the system out... Who in the minors has greater power potential than LaPorta for the Brewers?

 

What is interesting to me is the Catching prospects the Brewers are stockpiling (Palmisano, Salome, Bouchie, Lucruy).. this reminds me of the 1B stockpiling of a couple of years ago (Nelson, Hart, Fielder). that turned out pretty well.

[RyDogg66]

The guy seems like a Pat Burrell type to me. Nothing wrong with that.

 

Oh, and I predict that by the end of 2008, that catcher they drafted is the Brewers number one catching prospect, ahead of both Salome and Palmisano.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Colbyjack compared Heyward to a lefthanded Derek Lee. Meanwhile Keith Law compared LaPorta to Scott Hatteberg. This is clearly not a guy that should be picked seventh overall when potential stars such as Heyward and Parker were still on the board. Like I said earlier this draft is way too reminiscent of the Bando days where we were drafting possible major leaguers with little upside versus taking the kids with star potential. I really hope this draft is just an anomoly because if this is the new philosophy then failure is right around the corner. The draft is all about taking the kids with the biggest upside in hopes that some of them will turn into stars. That is how we landed the likes of Prince Fielder and Yovani Gallardo instaed of Antone Williamson and Chad Green. Yes we have potential misses like Mark Rogers (who I still have hope for) but if you dont try to be great you will be stuck in mediocrity forever. I really expect better from Jack Z and Doug Melvin and that is why this draft is so disappointing.

[RyDogg66]

Last time I checked, Keith Law isnt a scouting director for any team, he is a poor-man's Mel Kiper, Jr. In other words, Who cares what he said about Laporta. These pundits/experts fall in love with certain players, while never really believing in others.

 

Chad Green was supposed to be the a "Kenny Lofton" type, and Dave Krynzel the next Steve Finley...who did those guys turn out?

 

As already stated in other threads, Laporta already compares, in some aspects, to collge hitters like Geoff Jenkins and Lance Berkman.

 

I think you are waaayyyy to hung up on the fact that some "expert" tossed out the name Scott Hatteberg. Besides, baseball drafting isnt an exact science. If we can get a guy who will eventually have a productive 13 year career, like Hatteberg, we should be so lucky. Even if he is a hitter in the mold Hatteberg, he has to project to hit for more power.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Rydogg would you really be happy if LaPorta turned into Scott Hatteberg? What if Heyward really is a lefthanded Derek Lee or if Parker is another Lincecum or Oswalt who are similar in stuff and stature to him? Well if that turns out to be the case this pick was a total reach and a complete shame. Listen do I know what will be with any of these guys. No but when I hear Heyward being compared to Derek Lee and Parker getting compared to Oswalt it really makes me wonder why we picked LaPorta. Only time will tell if I am right and I certainly hope to be proven wrong but I do not like this pick and fear that the days of picking kids with high upsides might be over for this organization and that would be a shame.

[BillScottCanRake]

Rydogg would you really be happy if LaPorta turned into Scott Hatteberg?

 

Do you have another point? Or are you just going to keep repeating this over and over? Other valid comparison have been made but you seem to be completely ignoring them.

 

What if Heyward really is a lefthanded Derek Lee or if Parker is another Lincecum or Oswalt who are similar in stuff and stature to him? Well if that turns out to be the case this pick was a total reach and a complete shame.

 

How is that different than any other draft? Anytime you draft someone, if they bust and someone you passed on doesn't, its too bad.

 

It's not like they took a guy who should have gone in the third round in the first. They took the guy who they thought was the best power hitter in the draft. And even if he only turns into Hatteberg, that is better than JM Gold, or Dave Krynzel, or loads of other first rounders who didn't get to the majors.

 

Only time will tell if I am right and I certainly hope to be proven wrong but I do not like this pick and fear that the days of picking kids with high upsides might be over for this organization and that would be a shame.

 

Why do you feel that is the case? Because of this one pick?

 

Jack Z picked Braun over Maybin in 2005, but he jumped right back into the HS right-hander party in 2006. I don't think a single pick makes a trend, it's just a single pick.

 

Really, I don't think much has changed at all. And, even if it has, it will be a year before we really know for sure, and it's not like there haven't been college players who have turned into stars.

[monty57]

LaPorta is a guy that coaches in the SEC (a pretty good conference) were afraid to pitch to, with 30 intentional walks, leading to a ridiculous OBP of .589. That is where the Hatteberg reference comes in - a high OBP guy. Also, throw in that he switched positions to play first and you've got your "comparison." From what I read, LaPorte wasn't a bad catcher, it's just that Miami had a tremendous defensive catcher, so LaPorte went to 1B.

 

Now if you consider that Hatteberg has average power, while LaPorte hit 20 HR in 52 games (probably would've been more if not for the 30 intentional walks), with a slugging pct of .817, I don't think it's a valid comparison. Plus, it seems some dropped LaPorte on their lists due to a sub-par Junior year, which seems from all accounts to be due to the fact that he was injured for most of the season.

 

Scouts (including Jack Z) are calling LaPorte the best power bat in the draft, so I don't see where the "low ceiling" moniker is coming from. This seems to me to be a guy with plus, plus power and plate discipline who will play average defense, and I'm absolutely fine with that.

 

As far as a change in philosophy, I don't see that either. Prince and Hardy were a HS bats, Weeks and Braun were college bats. Where's the trend?

[LeetPCUser]

I think that the draft this year was a bit shaky, but they have always came threw in the past. In all reality I am sure they know what they are doing. We are one of the top prospect teams in the league.

[DHonks]

I find it funny how people are reacting the same to this draft as they do each year. Jack Z's job is to provide an influx of talent to help Doug Melvin out. Take a look at our low levels of minor leaguers, and they're all 19-22. The Brewers took some very advanced hitters that can jump past those young prospects.

 

There is no change in philosophy, just an evolution in philosophy. This same thing happened a few years ago when the team toop a bunch of college players. If the Brewers draft young raw players, eventually they need to draft college players, or else they'll have huge gaps in the high minors.

 

So far, through round 21, this is the breakdown:

College: 8

JuCo: 3

HS: 9

 

RHP: 5

LHP: 4

1b: 1

2b/ss: 2

3b: 2

OF: 2

CF: 2

C: 2

[Never Outhustled]

The guy seems like a Pat Burrell type to me. Nothing wrong with that.

 

Burrel was the 1st guy I thought of for a Laporta comparison, as both were big, muscular, college sluggers from the right side. However, I then realized that Laporta had almost eliminated Ks from his game, and had started hitting to all fields, instead of being the streaky pull hitter Burrel remains. That made me much more excited about Laporta.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Cross posted from another thread...I think there's way too much emphasis on the Hatteburg / Colbrunn comparison, which doesn't make all that much sense to me in the first place.

 

From the other thread:

 

I don't know what to make of the Colbrunn / Hatteberg comparison, partly because I don't see those two guys as similar to each other. Colbrunn was a 6th-round pick out of HS, ultimately a righty bat with some pop who didn't walk all that much...Hatteberg was more prominent on draft day, a supp first rounder from Washington State, lefty hitter with less power but a much better walk rate. So how are those two guys similar when you're talking about draft day?

 

From what we can see, LaPorta is a good hitter with big time power, walks a lot but doesn't strike out as much as most power hitters, righty bat with mediocre defensive tools (range, arm). None of that says Colbrunn or Hatteberg to me...more like Burrell or, if we could dream, Frank Thomas. Or, on the down side, maybe a Matt LeCroy or Craig Wilson? But LaPorta doesn't seem to strike out nearly as much as those guys, though it's too soon to tell how he'll fare in the pros of course.

 

Is LaPorta's past behind the plate part of the Colbrunn / Hatteberg comparison? Because otherwise it seems very odd.

[Trowekamp]

Listening to anything Keith Law has too say is about as valuable as listening to:

 

Steve Phillips

John Kruk

 

I would much more take John Sickel's word on LaPorta.

[geothite]

I have stopped fixating on LaPorta.

My concern is using a 4th round pick on a guy with the ceiling to be someday a utility infeilder (the consensus on him).

He doesn't have any real plus skill. He is 21 and it looks like we used a 4th to hopefully (and at this point all of this is based on hope) find a replacement for Counsell or Graffy. Scrappy infeilders are nice but you 3rd pick of the day.

[dadofandrew]

Dave Krynzel the next Steve Finley...who did those guys turn out?

 

Sadly, this comparison is pretty accurate...but Finley is 42 now, and Dave is finally about as good as Steve is.

[RyDogg66]

Quote:

---

He is 21 and it looks like we used a 4th to hopefully (and at this point all of this is based on hope) find a replacement for Counsell or Graffy. Scrappy infeilders are nice but you 3rd pick of the day.

---

 

How many 4th round picks in baseball turn out to be better than Craig Counsell or Graffy?

 

I wont argue that the upside on FArris is limited, but just because he projects to be a UT MI is nothing to get upset about.

 

The truth is that he could project to be the next Omar Ziquel or Rickie Weeks and it really wouldnt change the liklihood of him ever becoming productive in the majors. That is just the wat MLB draft is, thousands of players drafted, few will ever make an impact in the bigs.

[xisxisxis]

I would think their abilities to draft the Barry Zitos, Nick Swishers, Mark Mulders, and Tim Hudsons of the world would have a lot of people envying the Athletics' ideas about drafting.

 

Or Grady Fuson. "Moneyball" drafts have returned little except a ton of PR and a fawning book by wunderkind turned blow-hard Michael Lewis.

 

 

Jack Z has been swinging for the fences drafting high ceiling HS players in the first/early rounds over the last few years with little success (yet). I've consistently hated those picks. I like this years draft and what seems more of an emphasis on production with potential than tools and ceiling. I actually don't see much difference in the pick of Laporta compared to say, Prince Fielder, both appeared to be the best hitter available (Laporta is just a college player and Fielder was a HS player). You can argue that Laporta doesn't have the same ceiling, but he has the advantage of performing at a higher level of competition prior to drafting and therefore, a smaller chance of being a bust. So few players make it to the majors from the draft that you really need to draft a combination of high ceiling HS players and players with numbers against better competition with a perceived lower ceiling.

 

And while I hope Laporta is better than Hatteberg, don't underestimate the value of having a 1st round pick develop into a Hatteberg versus and Williamson or Green or Krynzel. Look at the first round picks from the last 10-15 years and you realize that it's still a crapshoot even with players perceived to be the best of the lot.

[DHonks]

I wont argue that the upside on FArris is limited, but just because he projects to be a UT MI is nothing to get upset about.

 

for perspective, we all assumed that Jason Belcher would be a stud catcher if he could continue to play behind the dish, and most of us were scratching our heads at the selections of JJ Hardy and Josh Murray (one seems to have turned out alright).