What is Michael Reed's ceiling?

[clancyphile]

Michael Reed has been very solid, if not amazing, at AA Biloxi.

 

Over his time in the Brewers system, he has shown plenty of speed and outstanding OBP skills, including 13 triples in 2013, and in each of the last three seasons, he's posted an OBP of at least .375, and stolen at least 26 bases.

 

So, what is his ceiling with the Brewers? Is he another Brady Clark? Can he develop some more power?

 

What do you think?

[DHonks]

Don't know, but Michael Brantley exhibited zero power in the minors, just OBP, and he's been a stud

[Jenkins5]

Don't know, but Michael Brantley exhibited zero power in the minors, just OBP, and he's been a stud

 

Ditto. He's still young so power will come. I think he could at least be a Parra type of valuable 4th OF. His ceiling is hard to predict as of right now. I don't really think he will ever be an All-Star type but think he could be a very solid every day player

[CheezWizHed]

I would guess that Brady Clark is his floor at this point. On the high end, Brantley or Aoki. Parra is probably a good middle-ground comparison.

[Outlander]

A cross between Trot Nixon and Shin-Soo Choo.

[reillymcshane]

My guess on Reed's ceiling at this time is probably a .290 hitter with modest power - 10-15 HR - .800ish OPS. Again, that's probably a ceiling.

 

From what I've read, he's got a little bit of a long swing that produces a few too many strikeouts, but it's livable if he can keep up a strong walk rate.

 

He profiles as a very good defensive corner OF. I don't know if he could be a full time CF - if he could, that would be a huge opportunity.

 

At worst, Reed could be a really nice 4th OF - ability to play all the OF slots, gets on base at a decent clip. A lot depends on if the power can emerge. It's be coming along slowly - but he has been improving his slugging each season over the past three years. Let's hope it keeps improving. A .280ish BA, .360 OBP, 10 HR player with good defense is a starter in my book. I think that's where Reed can end up on a consistent basis.

[CheezWizHed]

Most reports on Reed's defense in CF have him in the Parra/Clark range. Ok for a backup/short stints, but not a defensive quality player at CF.

[jerichoholicninja]

Don't know, but Michael Brantley exhibited zero power in the minors, just OBP, and he's been a stud

 

He's has one "stud" season and a few other very good ones. But I'd still take Reed putting up a .350ish OBP even if he doesn't hit a single homerun.

[And That]

Brett Gardner might be a fair comp for a best case scenario, though Reed is a step or two slower.

[FVBrewerFan]

As for power, that is hard to project. I would need to see him play a lot, or at least see his spray charts. Are most of his doubles lasers off the wall? Does he have a lot of warning track outs? Then I would feel more comfortable that will translate to more HRs down the road.

 

On the other hand, if his doubles are grounders down the line, well placed line drives near gaps, and he uses speed to turn them into doubles...then I wouldn't be as confident in his future power.

[TheCrew07]

Reed like Eric Farris before doesn't have plus speed or he'd be a legitimate option in CF, he's just a damn good baseball player and makes the most out of what he has. Many times people try to correlate stolen bases with speed and while that's true of MLB base stealers with high totals, it's not a universal truth when talking about minor league players as the disparity in pitching and catching from team to team plays quite an effect until AA when the gap starts to narrow but even then there are significant swings in quality.

 

When he was in WI Erickson felt that Reed was the 3rd best option in CF behind Taylor and Haniger, and I believe that was a fair assessment having watched them all.

 

Taylor hit a ton of ground ball doubles down the line last year so his drop in OPS shouldn't be surprising, how will Reed's power develop I'm not sure, it's not like he's a tooth pick, at 10-15 HRs per season he'd be pretty valuable.

[TigerUppercut]

Reed like Eric Farris before doesn't have plus speed or he'd be a legitimate option in CF, he's just a damn good baseball player and makes the most out of what he has. Many times people try to correlate stolen bases with speed and while that's true of MLB base stealers with high totals, it's not a universal truth when talking about minor league players as the disparity in pitching and catching from team to team plays quite an effect until AA when the gap starts to narrow but even then there are significant swings in quality.

 

When he was in WI Erickson felt that Reed was the 3rd best option in CF behind Taylor and Haniger, and I believe that was a fair assessment having watched them all.

 

Taylor hit a ton of ground ball doubles down the line last year so his drop in OPS shouldn't be surprising, how will Reed's power develop I'm not sure, it's not like he's a tooth pick, at 10-15 HRs per season he'd be pretty valuable.

 

He just feels like a Brady Clark comp to me. A guy that plays the game the right way, solid yet unspectacular, but somebody that can chip in and grind his way to a nice little career. Ideally a 4th guy but a valuable contributor type.

[ebmackenzie]

Like many others here I see Brady Clark...as a ceiling. Less so is more likely. I think he would be a good #5 OF that could play all the OF positions and a decent deal at pre-arby wages.

[igor67]

Clark isn't the worst comparison, but I guess the biggest difference is that I can see him putting up the same kinds of OPS' as Clark, but the difference in offensive environment turns Reed into a serious potential asset as a high OBP good defense corner OF. A league average starter as a ceiling.

[CheezWizHed]

My guess is that his ceiling is sheetrock. But its only a guess. I've never been to his house.

[clancyphile]

My thinking is he's got more speed than Clark, who was never a serious SB threat. Reed's stolen 97 based in 127 career attempts in the minors (76.3% success rate). Clark stole 88 in 140 (62.8%).

 

So, while Clark topped out at 15 steals in a season in the majors, Reed could average 25 or so. Reed's also delivered 7 more triples in 700 fewer minor-league at bats. Clark flashed more power but was anywhere from 0 to 2.7 years ABOVE the league average age. Reed's routinely been at least 2 years YOUNGER than the league average.

 

I think he is comparable to Brady Clark, but he will add more speed, and I think comparable or better power will come.

[SRB]

It's hard to be a starting corner OF at the major league level without any power. I think Reed's upside will be a very valuable bench OF whose OBP skills as a PH will be much appreciated.

[clancyphile]

It's hard to be a starting corner OF at the major league level without any power. I think Reed's upside will be a very valuable bench OF whose OBP skills as a PH will be much appreciated.

 

Why not as a solid leadoff hitter?

 

Reed has OBP skills, he's got very good speed... those would seem to be the top two requirements for a leadoff hitter. And he's had some experience in center (the majority of his time in Arizona and Helena) before he got "blocked" by Tyrone Taylor.

 

And Brady Clark proved to be quite useful in center field for the Crew... so I'd be fine with parking Reed in center, especially if the Brewers trade Gomez. Taylor's not made the adjustment from A+ to AA, and Harrison's hurt. Why not see if Reed is the answer in center?

[TheCrew07]

\Reed has OBP skills, he's got very good speed... those would seem to be the top two requirements for a leadoff hitter. And he's had some experience in center (the majority of his time in Arizona and Helena) before he got "blocked" by Tyrone Taylor.

 

Again, not so much.