What is Arcia's ceiling?

[jerichoholicninja]

Everyone is super excited about this guy and he's starting to get some national attention. Apparently his defense is great, which would be nice to have at SS after having Segura and Yuni there the last few years, but what about his bat? Are we talking Alcides Escobar/Elvis Andrus mid-600's OPS or more Starlin Castro-low 700's?

[TheCrew07]

Right now he'll hit 7-10 HRs over the course of a season, it depends on how he fills out, he could be 10-15 guy. Unfortunately he'll probably play winter ball instead of lifting weights so I think it will come down to natural body maturation, otherwise I'd say he's an easy low 700s hitter.

[gregmag]

TheCrew07, when you say he's an easy low .700s hitter, it doesn't sound like you're talking about ceiling, right? That would seem like an awfully low ceiling projection for a guy who's OPSing .817 as a 20 year-old at AA. Low .700s seems like a good projection for what he'll do in MLB if he basically doesn't develop beyond where he is now.

 

Ceiling projections always seem tough to me for young players with broad skill sets. Arcia now is hitting for average and very good doubles power (ISO near .150). He has good speed. His walk rate isn't awful for such a young guy, and his K rate isn't bad. He's gotten better as he's moved up, with major offensive improvement each year in the U.S. (assuming he doesn't slump badly the rest of this year). He's very young for his level, and now he's made the big jump to AA. He has a reputation as a hard worker and competitor. Basically he has about every available possibility for further development, other than raw body size.

 

The guy he reminds me of (I'll show my age here) is Robbie Alomar. 6'0", middle IF, same breadth of skills at an early age. Alomar was already a good MLB hitter at Arcia's age, and he's a HOFer, so I'm not going to suggest Arcia is his equal. But as a wild stab at Arcia's ceiling I'll toss out 90 percent of Alomar, around 125 OPS+ in his peak seasons. How he gets there -- contact, walks, power -- I have no idea.

[MrTPlush]

Scouting reports says he has really good defense...possibly the best all around defensive SS in MiLB right now. That alone was going to get him to the majors. Now it looks like he can be a guy who hits for a nice .300ish average with some pop in his bat for doubles/some homeruns. His defense and well rounded offensive game can make him one of the best shortstops in the game for quite awhile. His floor is better than Segura is right now. He shows to be even slightly competent with the stick at the MLB level and he will be one of the best SS in the game. Alcides Escobar is the second best SS so far and he doesn't even provide much on offense.

 

Of course he could flop and be like Segura with better defense...ahh prospects.

[TheCrew07]

TheCrew07, when you say he's an easy low .700s hitter, it doesn't sound like you're talking about ceiling, right? That would seem like an awfully low ceiling projection for a guy who's OPSing .817 as a 20 year-old at AA. Low .700s seems like a good projection for what he'll do in MLB if he basically doesn't develop beyond where he is now.

 

Correct, with his current body type he's a high .600s to low .700s guy at his peak... and by low .700s I mean like .720ish. not like .705... I think that Castro's .777 of last season his probably around his ultimate ceiling.. 30+ doubles, 10+ HRs, and he'll walk more and strike out less than Starlin does. He's also much defender than Castro so he'll provide more ultimate value in the end.

 

Around a .290 AVE, .350 OBP, and .450 SLG seems like good ultimate peak projection if he fills out his body in a best case scenario. Of course if he continues to significantly improve his plate discipline he could be a .300+ hitter in his best years which bumps everything as well.

 

Escobar hit 8 HRs as a 21 year old in AA but he's never hit more than 5 in any MLB season so I could really see Arcia putting up anywhere from 5 to 15 HRs per season depending on if his body type stays more like Escobar or moves more towards his brother Oswaldo. I don't mean to suggest that Alcides and Orlando are similar hitters because they aren't, but they had similar body types... in that 6' 170lb range in AA, though Orlando is a year younger.

 

I could talk all day about adding muscle and flexibility vs adding weight... Escobar has just added weight through his career, and I fear that Arcia may be similar given his heritage and how slow baseball has been to promote athletic development (outside of PEDs).

 

Hardy didn't add that power until he got hurt and spent all his rehab and off season working in the weight room, he was looking to be in that 10ish HR range until then as well so ultimately we never really know how motivated a player will be to improve in that regard.

[MrTPlush]

TheCrew07 was quite spot on in my opinion.

[clancyphile]

I'm thinking he can hit .300 and steal 30 bases a season, while contributing 30-35 doubles, 10 triples, and 10-15 homers a year while stealing 30-35 bases a season.

 

I'd love to get both Arcia and Lara some weight training with Robin Yount or some good trainers. If Arcia did that. he'd become something special.

[homer]

I don't know if Escobar is the best comparison. His one full year in AA season he was 21 years old and hit 25 doubles, 5 triples, and 8 home runs. Arcia has nearly matched those numbers as a 20 year old in little over half a season (25, 5, 5).