"Huge Interest" in Orlando Arcia

[paul253]

The more I think about the more I'd be willing to trade Arcia but only for a young pitcher with #1 potential. I remember noting awhile back that in the past 11 or 12 years the Brewers have only had a team ERA in the top half of the league and not made the playoffs one time. The other two times that happened they made the playoffs. I don't remember if that was exactly it but it was something like that. The takeaway was that they need decent pitching to win. We still lack a pitcher with 1 or 2 potential in our system so I say if you can get one for Arcia you do it. Hopefully you supplement it with another one as a top 5 pick in next years draft. Then all of a sudden you got something going. Yes it would hurt to lose Arcia a true young controllable ace might be more valuable.

[Warning Track Power]

Would you do Arcia for Syndergaard?

[adambr2]

This is a strange hypothetical to me. How often do we ever see a huge prospect for huge prospect trade involving no MLB-ready players?

 

I don't believe in "untradeable", but Arcia is the closest we have for sure. I don't like the idea at all of trading him, because I'm scared to death that they are toying with the idea of trading for a great, but lower upside prospect who is MLB ready in the interest of "re-tooling" for next year. That's completely the opposite direction that I believe we should be going in.

 

I'm not even really keen on trading Arcia for a top pitching prospect, if that option is even available to us. Pitching prospects are usually more volatile, and we don't have the best track record in recent years of developing pitching at the minor league levels. An everyday, elite SS prospect is extremely valuable, and neither of Segura or Sardinas is good enough to "block" Arcia. I'd have some tremendous hesitation about trading Arcia for another team's asset, no matter how good.

[NievesNoNO]

Would you do Arcia for Syndergaard?

 

 

Yes, without hesitation.

[3and2Fastball]

Would you do Arcia for Syndergaard?

 

Syndergaard is awesome. The problem is that the Brewers aren't going to the World Series in the next 2-3 years, so then you are only getting 3 years of Syndegaard on a playoff contending team.

 

This team needs a full & complete rebuild, top to bottom including the front office.

 

No way do I trade Arcia for a pitcher.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers trading for a lower potential prospect who is MLB ready just to retool makes zero sense. Orlando Arcia is MLB ready himself judging by the vast interest from teams looking for a SS. If that's what they wanted to do they would dump Segura and play Arcia.

[adambr2]

Just because teams are interested in Arcia doesn't make him MLB ready. He might be ready in the sense that he could come up and play now, but probably not at the level that they eventually expect without a period or growing pains first. Of course every team is interested in a top 10 prospect at a premium position. I hope they wouldn't rush him up to the big leagues and start his clock at 20 regardless of what they plan to do with Segura.

 

Sardinas I would think is much more likely to be our opening day SS next year than Arcia. We have every reason to take our time with Arcia right now and not rush him. Sometime next summer after he passes the point where he could be a Super 2 would be reasonable.

[adambr2]

We're still a bottom 5 team and probably in need of a rebuild. It's important to consider that we're playing in the toughest division in baseball where the arrow is still pointing up on the top 3 teams. We're more than a tinker or retool away from passing the Cardinals, Pirates or Cubs in the next couple years. Arcia is a guy we should build around for the future. He is potentially the next face of the franchise. I'm kind of mind blown that we would even be considering trading him if we indeed are.

 

Prospects the level of Arcia are rarely traded except by contenders in need of acquiring a high level established MLB player to help them in the short term in the playoffs. We definitely don't fit that bill.

[brewmann04]

The brewers need to keep Arcia.

[clancyphile]

Arcia would require a very steep ransom...

 

For instance, the Dodgers would have to cough up a package starting with:

RHP Zack Greinke

SS Enrique Hernandez

C Austin Barnes

OF Joc Pedersen

 

That would be a bare minimum for a package of Arcia, Scooter Gennett, Carlos Gomez, and Lohse. Honestly, the Dodgers would probably need to cough up Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager as well, unless they were willing to cover at least 75% of Greinke's salary.

 

EDIT: I think Arcia is going to be a huge star. That said, with Lara in the system, Luis Sardinas in AAA, Jean Segura doing decently, and Yadiel Rivera turning into an Alcides Escobar-type - I am willing to trade Arcia if a team will overpay, but the above trade package is a minimum price.

[MrTPlush]

Just because teams are interested in Arcia doesn't make him MLB ready. He might be ready in the sense that he could come up and play now, but probably not at the level that they eventually expect without a period or growing pains first. Of course every team is interested in a top 10 prospect at a premium position. I hope they wouldn't rush him up to the big leagues and start his clock at 20 regardless of what they plan to do with Segura.

 

Sardinas I would think is much more likely to be our opening day SS next year than Arcia. We have every reason to take our time with Arcia right now and not rush him. Sometime next summer after he passes the point where he could be a Super 2 would be reasonable.

 

I don't think you can predict if a player will have growing pains or not. Bottom line Arcia has nothing to prove in the minors and teams looking to trade for him will move him straight to the MLB roster.

 

If the Brewers have him yes everything you said is true. He should stay in the minors till sometime next year in the second half.

[clancyphile]

We're still a bottom 5 team and probably in need of a rebuild. It's important to consider that we're playing in the toughest division in baseball where the arrow is still pointing up on the top 3 teams. We're more than a tinker or retool away from passing the Cardinals, Pirates or Cubs in the next couple years. Arcia is a guy we should build around for the future. He is potentially the next face of the franchise. I'm kind of mind blown that we would even be considering trading him if we indeed are.

 

Prospects the level of Arcia are rarely traded except by contenders in need of acquiring a high level established MLB player to help them in the short term in the playoffs. We definitely don't fit that bill.

 

It all depends on the price Arcia fetches.

 

If trading Arcia and a couple of spare parts (Lohse, Gennett) to the Dodgers would net the Brewers Zach Greinke and/or Clayton Kershaw at a huge discount, plus prospects like Corey Seeger (21-year-old UT with a .863 OPS in AA/AAA this year), Cody Bellinger (19-year-old 1B posting a .810 OPS at A+), Austin Barnes (25-year-old C with an .869 OPS), and Enrique Hernandez (23-year-old UT in the majors with a .754 OPS), I make the deal.

[MrTPlush]

Would you do Arcia for Syndergaard?

 

Syndergaard is awesome. The problem is that the Brewers aren't going to the World Series in the next 2-3 years, so then you are only getting 3 years of Syndegaard on a playoff contending team.

 

This team needs a full & complete rebuild, top to bottom including the front office.

 

No way do I trade Arcia for a pitcher.

 

I think it is easy to say no now, but in 4 years everyone will be crying how we have no ace. That or when we trade the farm for one or spend millions in FA to have one.

 

I guess I see where trading our top prospect is hard, but I don't think you can downplay having an ace for 6 years on the cheap and 3 years while contending. Syndergaard could easily become the greatest pitcher in Brewer's history. That being said they are both incredible talents and it is nice to have one of them.

[clancyphile]

Would you do Arcia for Syndergaard?

 

Syndergaard is awesome. The problem is that the Brewers aren't going to the World Series in the next 2-3 years, so then you are only getting 3 years of Syndegaard on a playoff contending team.

 

This team needs a full & complete rebuild, top to bottom including the front office.

 

No way do I trade Arcia for a pitcher.

 

I think it is easy to say no now, but in 4 years everyone will be crying how we have no ace. That or when we trade the farm for one or spend millions in FA to have one.

 

I guess I see where trading our top prospect is hard, but I don't think you can downplay having an ace for 6 years on the cheap and 3 years while contending. Syndergaard could easily become the greatest pitcher in Brewer's history. That being said they are both incredible talents and it is nice to have one of them.

 

Which is why I am against a one-for-one swap. It would take multiple players for someone of Arcia's caliber.

 

Also, if San Diego is calling, who not go to LA or San Francisco, and get a bidding war started?

[MrTPlush]

I would prefer not to do a one for one trade either. Assuming Syndergaard and Arcia are considered similar value I would want to feel like I am winning the deal if a team is coming to me looking for a trade. Still if the Brewers were offered Urias, Matz, or Syndergaard etc. I would find it difficult to say no. The Brewers could have the long term ace they have never had in my life. While Sheets was stellar he was short lived.

[TheCrew07]

Arcia would require a very steep ransom...

 

For instance, the Dodgers would have to cough up a package starting with:

RHP Zack Greinke

SS Enrique Hernandez

C Austin Barnes

OF Joc Pedersen.

 

So you think 1 prospect is worth a former CY pitcher having a career year, one of the better young CFs in the game, a MLB utility guy, and a questional MiLB catcher?

 

Futhermore why would the Brewers want a 31 year old Greinke and his salary/contract, another utility IF, and a probably never will be MLB C? Also, why would the Dodgers want to give up MLB pieces when they are chasing a World Series and looking add more MLB impact pitching for the 2nd half?

 

I swear you post crazy stuff just get everyone else's dander up.

 

If we were trading Arcia with the Dodgers we'd be looking at getting back either Corey Seager to be our 3B or Julio Urias to be our ace of the future in a straight up deal. Seager is still playing SS for them in AAA so I don't see them swapping SSs with us but they would shift him to 3B if they brought Arcia into the fold which makes Urias the only realistic Arcia target with LA.

[paul253]

Id do Arcia for Syndergaard in a heartbeat. You make that deal then move Gomez, parra, segura and Lind for prospects, hopefully get a top five pick in a pitching strong draft and all of a sudden two or three years from now you've got a solid core of young players plus an ace or maybe even two.

 

Sardinas could probably provide as much offense now as segura does. CF can either be filled with a trade or Taylor or maybe even Wren or reed. Rogers can hold down first for now then maybe coulter or Braun could play there. There are options on offense but the one thing we don't have is an ace. We need an ace.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I would be highly reluctant to trade a top tier position prospect one-for-one for a pitcher. Pitching is just too volatile, and pitchers too susceptible to injury....you are assuming extra risk with the pitcher so I'd need more talent in addition. The Brewers have had top-tier prospects who were pitchers beyond Ben Sheets: Tyrone Hill, Nick Neugebauer, Narciso Elvira all made it to lofty positions on the BA top 100 and none of them had much impact. Jose Capellan was rated at #25 on the BA list in 2005; it seemed like a coup when we traded for him, but he ended throwing under 100 innings for the Brewers. You will need to assume some risk to get a young ace in a trade, but Arcia is the single most valuable piece we have right now and that's a lot to risk.

[adambr2]

I just can't even recall an instance where a top farm prospect was traded for another without established MLB players being involved. I'm not saying it has never happened, just saying hat I can't recall an instance of it and the rarity of it is so extreme that I can't see Arcia going anywhere.

[TheCrew07]

I just can't even recall an instance where a top farm prospect was traded for another without established MLB players being involved. I'm not saying it has never happened, just saying hat I can't recall an instance of it and the rarity of it is so extreme that I can't see Arcia going anywhere.

 

It depends on what type of team you are trading with and when, if the team is contending there aren't going to be established MLB players coming back for a top prospect during the season, in the off season anything can happen.

 

Historically all the trades were for players with very limited MLB experience and were made between teams that weren't in contention looking to improve weaknesses.

 

Just because there isn't a precedent doesn't mean it's not a good idea to do prospect for prospect swaps. 10 years ago no one was buying out arbitration and FA years from young players either.

 

I would be livid if the Brewers traded Arcia for some MLB piece...

[danzig6767]

I would be highly reluctant to trade a top tier position prospect one-for-one for a pitcher. Pitching is just too volatile, and pitchers too susceptible to injury....you are assuming extra risk with the pitcher so I'd need more talent in addition.

No question pitchers are a bigger risk, but injuries can hit anyone. Look at Profar with Texas. Not long ago he was the number one prospect in baseball and now he may never amount to anything.

[TheCrew07]

I would be highly reluctant to trade a top tier position prospect one-for-one for a pitcher. Pitching is just too volatile, and pitchers too susceptible to injury....you are assuming extra risk with the pitcher so I'd need more talent in addition.

No question pitchers are a bigger risk, but injuries can hit anyone. Look at Profar with Texas. Not long ago he was the number one prospect in baseball and now he may never amount to anything.

 

Not only that but if we don't trade for young impact pitching and aren't developing it, how exactly are we going to acquire any with longevity? Is the plan going to be short duration proven MLB players forever?

 

The Brewers aren't able to go 7 years for players in FA so they are out of the impact pitching market, they haven't been drafting/signing and developing impact pitching, so if the Brewers don't assume some risk and trade for it then what exactly is going to change?

 

People keep talking about getting Syndergaard which is not going to happen, the Mets acquired him in A ball, that's the smart play. That's exactly where Lucas Giolito is right now... I understand and appreciate the fascination many fans will have with MLB ready and MLB proven talent, but all that does is limit the possible return. The Rays plucked Scott Kazmir from AA in 2004, in 2007 and when Texas acquired Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus at the deadline for Teixeira both players were in the low minors. Feliz was a 19 year old fireballer in R ball and Andrus was 18 years old in A+. In 2012 Miami acquired Justin Nicolino when he was coming out of A ball. Almost all of the best high ceiling minor league pitchers are in AA or lower... Glasnow (AA), Reyes (A+), Urias (AA - coming off elective eye surgery), only Luis Severino (Yankees) and Daniel Norris (Jays) are currently pitching in AAA. Aaron Nola is highly rated but he's a #3 and always have been, and it wouldn't make sense for the Phillies to trade him anyway. We're dealing with a very short list of prospects here at the top of the list, there are guys further down BA's midseason top 50 like Hoffman and Newcomb who are extremely intriguing.

 

The Brewers don't really match-up at all with Yankees, do match up with Jays, and arguments could be made for first 4 prospects I mentioned previously in different posts; Giolito, Glasnow, Reyes, and Urias. 2 of those players are unfortunately in the division so we'd have to be willing to give our rivals a temporary boost and take a longer view, which doesn't seem like Melvin's MO.

 

As teams have actually started to care about drafting and developing players instead of continually moving around MLB assets prospects have gained more value. It's pretty hard these days to trade for an impact pitcher in AAA, why wouldn't the team just call him up to be their 5th starter instead of trade him? That's why there has been very little impact pitching in AAA over the last 10 years.

 

I think the Brewers pro-player scouting dept is better than the amateur division, it's different scouts spending time watching the minor leagues than it is out scouting amateur talent. Yes there is risk, but the organization has to take calculated risks on the correct talent to get over the top. I'm not risk adverse but I don't want the organization to be wasteful either, I want carefully thought out and calculated risks taken. I'll take my chances with the pro-player scouting, they've done a pretty good job over the years.

 

Many posters are incredibly risk averse, which means they disinclined or reluctant to take risks. We can't change out the GM because it could get worse, we can't trade for prospects because they might fail, and so on. However while focusing on the extreme negatives the number of possible outcomes becomes limited, and in the end the situation tends to deteriorate anyway because issues rarely take care of themselves. That's exactly what happened to the US Military in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'd recommend the books Cobra II and Not A Good Day to Die, and that's certainly been the case for me as I've progressed through life.

 

Operating in an ultra conservative manner rarely leads to the desired end state regardless of where or how you are tactically competing... sports, business, military... in the end it's all the same. If you are conservative and predictable you will lose, if you are foolish and wasteful you will lose, the key is to find that sweet spot in the middle where calculated risks are taken and goals are achieved.

 

I'll finish the post with a couple of my favorite quotes from antiquity:

 

It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

- Sun Tzu

 

He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.

- Socrates

[clancyphile]

Arcia would require a very steep ransom...

 

For instance, the Dodgers would have to cough up a package starting with:

RHP Zack Greinke

SS Enrique Hernandez

C Austin Barnes

OF Joc Pedersen.

 

So you think 1 prospect is worth a former CY pitcher having a career year, one of the better young CFs in the game, a MLB utility guy, and a questional MiLB catcher?

 

Futhermore why would the Brewers want a 31 year old Greinke and his salary/contract, another utility IF, and a probably never will be MLB C? Also, why would the Dodgers want to give up MLB pieces when they are chasing a World Series and looking add more MLB impact pitching for the 2nd half?

 

I swear you post crazy stuff just get everyone else's dander up.

 

If we were trading Arcia with the Dodgers we'd be looking at getting back either Corey Seager to be our 3B or Julio Urias to be our ace of the future in a straight up deal. Seager is still playing SS for them in AAA so I don't see them swapping SSs with us but they would shift him to 3B if they brought Arcia into the fold which makes Urias the only realistic Arcia target with LA.

 

1. I was explaining that IF Arcia were to be traded, my price would be VERY steep. My preference is to keep him, but a trade is not out of the question if someone is willing to overpay.

 

2. I named two other prospects I would want in some Arcia-involved deal, Ballenger and Seager.

 

3. I try to think outside the box.

[MrTPlush]

Through my experiences when it comes to proposing trades it is best to use Top 100 prospects and such because the more typical fans will understand. Everyone here isn't a prospect wiz so using those guys still lower in the minors who aren't ranked is pretty hard. We are just trying to match value to a player.

 

I see it a lot on here where recent first rounders are being proposed as minor pieces/throw ins in a respective trade. People just don't understand the future value of those players.

 

I also think posters fail to see the risk in our players. Gomez having a down year and injured, Parra hitting way over his career norm, Lind injury history and can't hit lefties, Arcia could flop like any prospect, Etc. Etc. Etc. Everything isn't so shiny looking in either. Our players have issues too.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Maybe they're just taking a page out of the Diamondbacks' playbook and are looking to package Arcia, Broxton, Lohse & Garza so that a team will absorb that payroll hit for minimal prospects in return.

 

*ducks*