2015 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[LouisEly]

Right now the Brewers are at 37. For sure Lohse is gone, and I think it's a pretty good bet that Kintzler is gone too. That brings it down to 35. Then you have guys like Guilmet, Jimenez, and Schafer who are fairly replaceable, although I sense that if the Brewers don't trade Davis or move Braun to 1B they will play Santana mostly in CF but have someone come in as a defensive replacement and move Santana to LF late in the game like they have been doing, so Schafer may be kept. Herrera is 30 and could be gone, then you have possible trades of Lind, Segura, K-Rod, and anyone else. Hellweg is out of options and unlikely to make the team, so he will come off at some point. Then you have marginal prospects like Dominguez and Rivera.

 

Add:

Davies

Reed

Arcia

Barrios

Houser

Lopez

Magnifico

Ventura?

Roache?

 

That's at least seven they'll have to add, so Guilmet is likely gone, probably Jimenez too. I guess it's the potential of losing Ventura or Roache versus the value of keeping Herrera, Schafer, Dominguez, Rivera, and/or Hellweg. Schafer isn't anything special, but if the Brewers plan on playing Santana in CF they will need a good defensive backup CF be it Schafer or someone else, so one way or another that roster spot is taken.

[Outlander]

Add Wren after spring training and protect another prospect by letting Schafer go.

[LouisEly]

Then they will have to expose that prospect to waivers in spring training, right? If you add Wren, you have to take someone off.

[clancyphile]

With Brent Suter's season, I would be surprised if he wasn't on the 40-man.

 

Now, my definite picks are:

SS Orlando Arcia

OF Michael Reed

LHP Brent Suter

OF Victor Roache

RHP Jorge Lopez

RHP Jorge Ortega

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

RHP Damien Magnifico

[Outlander]

Then they will have to expose that prospect to waivers in spring training, right? If you add Wren, you have to take someone off.

Well yeah, a lot easier to get somebody through at the end of spring training plus somebody could get hurt or traded.between the end of the season and start of next year. Schafer is a waste of a roster spot.

[DHonks]

Can always add them to 40-man, then after the Rule V5 draft outright them to the minors...they've done that before

[Mass Haas]

Can always add them to 40-man, then after the Rule 5 draft outright them to the minors...they've done that before

 

Sorry, but can't remember the Brewers (or other organizations) quite doing that.

 

Went back to our transactions database and the quickest removal of a newly added 40-man Rule 5 protected roster player in the Melvin era appears to be LHP Dan Merklinger, added to the 40-man prior to the 2010 Rule 5 and DFA'd on April 6th, 2011.

 

Catcher Kade Johnson was added to the 40-man in November 2003 and removed the following June 4th. RHP Tim Bausher followed that exact fate in the same months as Johnson.

 

OF Brock Kjeldgaard was added to the 40-man in November 2011 and removed the following July. RHP Kevin Shackelford saw a similar November-July timeline in 2013-2014.

 

Memories!

[CheezWizHed]

Then they will have to expose that prospect to waivers in spring training, right? If you add Wren, you have to take someone off.

 

There are probably a couple guys (like Hellweg) that will be on the 40-man until ST, then get dropped off. Also, you have Peterson to play that role of backup CF and he is on the 40-man.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm guessing but I wouldn't be surprised if any or all of the following on the current 40 man are removed at season's end: Hellweg, Kintzler, Guilmet, Centeno, Clark, Schafer. I could see Rivera being assigned too since he can't refuse his assignment. He doesn't strike me as someone that anyone would take in Rule 5 draft.

[gregmag]

I'm guessing but I wouldn't be surprised if any or all of the following on the current 40 man are removed at season's end: Hellweg, Kintzler, Guilmet, Centeno, Clark, Schafer. I could see Rivera being assigned too since he can't refuse his assignment. He doesn't strike me as someone that anyone would take in Rule 5 draft.

The Hellweg debate is raging fast and furious in the AFL thread. Your take on Rivera sounds reasonable, but I wouldn't take the chance if I could avoid it. My only question about Centeno is whether they'd be comfortable going with two catchers on the 40-man.

 

Let me play the parlor game. With Davies added, the roster stands at 38. Here's what I would do right now, building in what I take to be strong realistic assumptions (like the idea of adding Barnes given his AFL assignment):

 

REMOVE

Centeno

Guilmet

Jiminez

Kintzler

Lohse

Clark

Herrera

Schafer

 

I'm going bold with JohnBriggs and dumping our third catcher. I'm also dumping Clark, because he's the kind of AAA/AAAA guy you can pick up off the scrap heap if you need to. I strongly doubt Hellweg or Dominguez ever puts anything together, but for right now we can afford to keep them around. That may change by spring, but so may a lot of things.

 

ADD

Reed

Arcia

Barnes

Barrios

Houser

Lopez

Magnifico

Roache

Ventura

Wang

 

Wang's on the bubble; I don't want to lose him, but I don't know whether anyone would think it wise to jerk him around with another year lost to Rule 5. I would prefer not to lose Matos, but I don't think he's shown enough for anyone to grab him. I could imagine someone taking a flyer on Ross, Suter, or Hall, but I don't see how they supplant anyone we have. You could argue that one of them is worth more than Hellweg's potential, but I'm willing to roll the dice. I would be sorry to lose Matos, McFarland, or Brennan, but I don't think they're vulnerable.

 

I can't remember a year when we had the ability to improve the 40-man roster as much as I think the changes above would improve it. Aging, replaceable parts out; shiny prospects in.

[clancyphile]

gregmag...

 

I would argue that given his 2015, if Suter is NOT on the Brewers' 40-man this fall, he will be on some other team's roster next spring. His performance has me sold.

[CheezWizHed]

I could see Rivera being assigned too since he can't refuse his assignment. He doesn't strike me as someone that anyone would take in Rule 5 draft.

 

Actually, I think he would be an ideal candidate for the rule 5. Backup IF and pitchers LHP relievers seem to be the highest probability of being useful. No numbers to back that up, but a guy with MLB defense and a possible MLB bat would be worth using as a utility guy.

[djoctagone]

Can always add them to 40-man, then after the Rule V5 draft outright them to the minors...they've done that before

that increases the likelihood of another team claiming that player. at that point, all the claiming team has to do is have an available 40-man roster spot because they can option said player (likely with three minor league options available).

[djoctagone]

doug melvin has demonstrated being comfortable carrying only two catchers on the roster. the last spring training when the club opened camp with three catchers on the 40-man prior to 2015: 2012. of course, it'll be up to the new general manager, but i too am sensing that centeno will be outrighted to make room for another player.

[Mass Haas]

Now that they're pushing Houle pretty hard, I'll add him to my "I wouldn't be surprised" list. He might even sneak onto the AFL roster.

 

Dustin Houle is just 21, has always been a defensive stud, and now back from Tommy John surgery, has had a nice offensive 40-game return to the field, including his first crack at High-A.

 

I like a lot of what Adam Weisenburger has done in his pro career and still think he can be a big league backup, but if the next starting catcher after Jonathan Lucroy is in this organization, it's Dustin Houle (organization will probably need a one-year bridge guy in 2018 before Houle could truly take hold of the everyday spot).

 

So yes, another 40-man roster decision before Rule 5 this fall...

[clancyphile]

My 40-man moves:

 

REMOVALS:

RHP Matt Garza

RHP Johnny Hellweg

RHP Kyle Lohse

RHP Brandon Kinzler

C Juan Centeno

1B Matt Clark

1B/3B Jason Rogers

IF Matt Dominguez

OF Logan Schafer

 

Takes the Brewers down to 30 players. I then add:

SS Orlando Arcia

OF Michael Reed

LHP Brent Suter

OF Victor Roache

RHP Jorge Lopez

RHP Jorge Ortega

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

RHP Damien Magnifico

RHP Adrian Houser

 

Arcia goes without saying. Reed's also someone the Brewers ought to protect. He'll be a much better option than Logan Schafer as a 5th outfielder, and that's the floor of his value (I will likely rank him #4 on my next Top 25 ballot). Brent Suter's just performed this year and last year - and on the next ballot, he's going to be the #2 prospect behind Arcia, and ahead of Reed and Santana.

 

Victor Roache looks like a strong power bat. Jorge Lopez and Jorge Ortega are both pitching well this year. Wang's proven he deserves another shot. Magnifico's a future closer (the right K-Rod trade could open a 40-man spot), and Houser's been nearly lights-out in Biloxi.

[Mass Haas]

The initial post in this thread has been updated to reflect the additions of RHP's Adrian Houser and Jorge Lopez and OF Michael Reed to the Brewers 40-man (and 25-man) rosters.

[And That]

Just to bump this before the additions are announced, I'm guessing they add Arcia, Magnifico, Barnes, Roache, and Ortega in order of certainty. I'm almost positive on the first three - I think they removed Hernan Perez from the roster due to Barnes' showing in the AFL. They might opt for Ortega over Roache if they only add four. I had Nick Ramirez as a maybe back in July, but he fell on his face in the second half, as did Austin Ross. I still think Angel Ventura and Dustin Houle are possibilities, and I guess you never know with Suter.

[pogokat]

While I still really like Roache's potential, I don't think there's any chance he'd get taken in the rule 5 draft. He's the kind of guy that would bat .100 as a pinch hitter, and i don't think anyone is going to take him to be a starter. He doesn't fit the mold of recent rule 5 picks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers added him, but I really don't expect them to for another year.

[Outlander]

If it was between Houle and Roache I would keep Houle as catcher can be hidden as Arizona showed last year. Roache doesn't provide much of anything at the big league level right now. Maybe a team in the AL that doesn't use position players as much could keep him as a power hitting bat off the bench but not likely.

[brewmann04]

You don't think Wang will be Protected ?

[And That]

I'd be surprised if Wang is protected, though not shocked I guess. What team would want to have him waste another year of development in the big leagues? I can't remember anyone spending significant roster time as a Rule 5 pick in two different seasons with two different teams, although it's obviously not outside the realm of possibility.

 

And then who do you not protect in order to protect Wang? Roache is the only one of those five I can see an argument for.

[Mass Haas]

Via Derek at BrewCrewBall -- Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Tomorrow

 

Good stuff, but there's also a hidden aspect to this we won't know about.

 

Here's an excerpt from the October 2013 Baseball America piece "Ask BA: How Do The Minor League Phases Of The Rule 5 Draft Work?"

 

In the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league 40-man roster or the Triple-A reserve roster of 38 players. In the Double-A phase of the draft, teams may select any eligible player left off the major league roster, the Triple-A reserve roster or the Double-A reserve roster of 37 players. In other words, a player selected in the Triple-A phase does not rank among his organization’s top 78 talents, and a Double-A selection does not rank among its top 115. In these cases, players are not required to remain on a particular roster. The player’s contract is irrevocably assigned to the drafting team and the drafting fee ($12,000 for Triple-A, $4,000 for Double-A) is paid.

 

OK, so here's the scoop. After Friday, we'll know how many players are on the Brewers' 40-man roster.

 

At that point we'll then know from the initial post in this thread, how many players weren't protected who were Rule 5 eligible. (It should be about 38 or 39).

 

Now, keep in mind the italicized paragraph above. The Brewers will submit a list to MiLB of the players they are protecting at the AAA roster level. With a maximum of 38 allowed, the Brewers could protect every single one of those assets from being able to be taken in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. We won't see that list at all, it won't be posted on MiLB.com's roster pages.

 

The Brewers were in a similar situation last year. They could have protected everyone. But as we learned, they did not protect Sean Halton and Kentrail Davis at the AAA level. They were left exposed as a favor by the Brewers, and were indeed snapped up by other organizations. Eric Farris was allowed to walk in similar fashion in 2012.

 

Several years ago, the Brewers sent a roster my way which showed which players were protected at each level, but they stopped that practice (I can see why) since that one instance.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Wang has a higher ceiling than Ortega imho. I'd protect him over roache as well. Be nice to keep them all. They still have players they could drop from the 40 (Hererra, fields, Peterson)

[brewmann04]

So we did not Lose Wang afterall which is good for the crew.