2015 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[Mass Haas]

Not to be confused with our Brewer Minor League Free Agency Eligibles After the 2015 Season Thread, this thread focuses on those players who will be eligible to be selected in December's Rule 5 Draft, and considers who Milwaukee should add to the 40-man roster to protect.

 

Remember --

 

Players who signed when 18 or younger are eligible for the draft after five years.

Players who signed when 19 or older are eligible after four years.

 

According to the rules, it's how old a player was on the June 5th immediately preceeding his signing.

 

Below are the players not eligible for free agency, but who would be Rule 5 eligible if not placed on the 40-man roster.

 

If a player is italicized, it's the first year the Brewers have to consider the player.

 

The others, not italicized, were eligible to be plucked last year but weren't.

 

Players listed alphabetically within level:

 

Current AAA Players --

 

RHP Hiram Burgos

RHP Jaye Chapman

RHP Zach Davies -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 9/1

OF Ben Guez

RHP Jim Miller

IF Hernan Perez

OF Michael Reed -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 9/22

RHP Austin Ross

LHP Brent Suter

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

 

Current AA Players --

 

SS Orlando Arcia -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 11/20

RHP Jacob Barnes -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 11/20

RHP Yhonathan Barrios -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 9/22

C Parker Berberet

LHP Jed Bradley

RHP Drew Gagnon

RHP Brooks Hall

RHP Adrian Houser -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 9/22

RHP Jorge Lopez -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 9/22

3B Brandon Macias

RHP Damien Magnifico -- ADDED to 40-man roster on 11/20

RHP Jorge Ortega

1B Nick Ramirez

OF Victor Roache

2B Nick Shaw

RHP Martin Viramontes

C Adam Weisenburger

 

Current A-Level (or below) players --

 

RHP Yomelbin Almonte

3B Taylor Brennan

UT Francisco Castillo

RHP Zach Cooper

C Paul Eshleman

RHP Preston Gainey

RHP Milton Gomez

C Dustin Houle

OF Anderson Jesus

3B/OF Sthervin Matos

2B Chris McFarland

C Natanael Mejia

C Rafael Neda

LHP Luis Ortega

1B Juan Ortiz

OF Jose Pena

IF/OF Yerison Pena

LHP Stephen Peterson

RHP Junior Rincon

RHP Gian Rizzo

OF Elvis Rubio

RHP Orlando Torrez

RHP Angel Ventura

 

The Brewers verified the accuracy of our list, thanks.

[Mass Haas]

Now maybe it's a bit early to truly analyze this, let's say Wei-Chung Wang continues his pace of the past month, for instance, but we'll count on all of you to discuss who the Brewers need to protect from Rule 5 this fall.

 

My list of "of course's" and "quite likely's" would include:

 

Arcia, Lopez, Magnifico, Reed, Roache, Wang, and a fascinating case in control artist Jorge Ortega.

 

Have at it, folks...

[ebmackenzie]

Is it just me or does this list of intriguing players necessitate some trades that would have many Brewers traded for A ball, high ceiling prospects (like Sean Newcombe) that can be off the 40 man roster next year. I see quite a few possibilities to get nabbed if they are not protected...but maybe I just overvalue our own.

[CheezWizHed]

I can see Ross being protected. He might even be on the MLB club next year. I'd someone like Suter or Wiesenburger gets picked if not protected

[bork]

There are a number of guys to add, but also quite a few will be dropped.

 

FAs: Ramirez, Parra, Lohse, Cotts, Broxton

Likely dropped: Kintzler, Centeno, one of Schafer or Peterson

Possibly dropped: Hellweg, Hector Gomez

[Outlander]

Predict they go with Arcia, Reed, Lopez, Roache, Magnifico, Ross, Ramirez, Jorge Ortega.

 

Seems like a lot but they should have the space available after trades and free agency. That would leave Hall, Wang and Suter most likely to get picked but don't think they would. Also think that Dominguez has the possibility to be removed. This list is also why it is important not to add guys like Wren too early as they risk losing another prospect. I also added Ramirez and took off Matt Clark but could see them keeping Clark and exposing Ramirez.

[JohnBriggs12]

There are a number of guys to add, but also quite a few will be dropped.

 

FAs: Ramirez, Parra, Lohse, Cotts, Broxton

Likely dropped: Kintzler, Centeno, one of Schafer or Peterson

Possibly dropped: Hellweg, Hector Gomez

 

I would put Hellweg and Hector Gomez in the likely dropped category and move Schafer into the "possibly dropped" category and leave Peterson off the list of drop candidates entirely, assuming off course Parra doesn't accept a QO and hits FA.

[Raw Biz]

Maybe I'm overvaluing our own picks but wow, there's a lot of guys I would want to protect. I went back and forth on Ramirez because we have some nice power guys behind him but I've been a fan of his for awhile, even though he's always been old for his level.

 

RHP Austin Ross

SS Orlando Arcia

RHP Brooks Hall

RHP Jorge Lopez

RHP Damien Magnifico

1B Nick Ramirez

OF Michael Reed

OF Victor Roache

2B Chris McFarland

RHP Jorge Ortega

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

[And That]

Definitely: Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez

Probably: Michael Reed, Damien Magnifico

Maybe: Nick Ramirez, Victor Roache, Jorge Ortega, Austin Ross

I'd be surprised: Wei-Chung Wang, Brooks Hall, Chris McFarland, Brent Suter, Adam Weisenburger

I wouldn't be surprised: Jacob Barnes, Angel Ventura, Taylor Brennan

[SRB]

I could see a team looking past Jed Bradley's 2015 struggles and adding him as a LOOGY flier, they are always in demand. Whether the Brewers still like him enough to protect him is another question.

[MrTPlush]

I'd be surprised if they don't protect Roache. I bet some team would take a flyer and add him. Whether he would survive a whole season is another story, but I wouldn't take a chance.

 

Getting a little risky when guys are in AA.

[ebmackenzie]

And That and Raw Biz,

 

I am leaning your way. I think that there will be a lot of guys that are 40 worthy, but not really starters on the MLB level. I see GM DM moving these guys and packaging them in trades at the deadline.

[clancyphile]

Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez, Michael Reed, Jorge Ortega, Wei-Chung Wang, Victor Roache, Damien Magnifico

[And That]

Now that they're pushing Houle pretty hard, I'll add him to my "I wouldn't be surprised" list. He might even sneak onto the AFL roster.

[ebmackenzie]

Yerison Pena has proven himself to be a dominant player at his age and in that league...

 

Why isn't he getting pushed to do more? It is almost like they are sandbagging him against the 40 and he is being hidden for now.

[CheezWizHed]

Now that they're pushing Houle pretty hard, I'll add him to my "I wouldn't be surprised" list. He might even sneak onto the AFL roster.

 

What would be a bit surprising for guy that only has a cup of coffee at A-ball (making the 40 man, not the AFL).

 

Anyone know the lowest MiLB level where someone has been drafted in Rule 5? Obviously, we have a few that were at A+.

[And That]

Wang hadn't pitched above the rookie level Gulf Coast League at the time he was drafted.

[CheezWizHed]

Ok, that's true, but didn't he have experience in Asia that was A ball equivalent?

 

Any traditional examples?

[Outlander]

Oscar Hernandez was a catcher in A ball in 2014 and selected by the Diamondbacks.

[And That]

The #1 pick from the last draft, Oscar Hernandez, had about 400 PA in the Midwest League prior to being picked.

 

Pick #6, Jandel Gustave, had 79 IP in the Midwest League. The #5 pick, J.R. Graham, never made it out of low-A ball either.

 

But that's all the further research I'm going to commit to at the moment.

[CheezWizHed]

ok, far more than I thought. But much higher draft picks (i.e. higher profile) than Houle also.

[Mass Haas]

Added newcomer RH reliever Yhonathan Barrios to the minor league free agent at the end of the season list. Unless re-signed to a 2016 minor league deal or added to the 40-man roster, which would protect from Rule 5, Barrios will be a just-turned 24-year-old minor league free agent this fall.

 

This quote is from the minor league free agent thread, so while Barrios is placed on that list, the real discussion is for this thread as to whether he'll be added to the 40-man. The Brewers have probably already told his agent that they'll get him the coaching to develop his offspeed stuff, and may hope he signs a 2016 minor league deal. That would not protect from Rule 5, however, so it seems Barrios is another strong contender for a 40-man roster spot this fall.

[CheezWizHed]

I think that a RP with high velocity and currently at AA would be an ideal target for Rule 5. I can't imagine that they would risk this after trading for him.

[Mass Haas]

Added RHP Adrian Houser, acquired in the Astros' deal, to the initial post in this thread. If not added to the 40-man roster this fall, Houser will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

 

The Brewers do not need to add OF Brett Phillips and LHP Josh Hader to the 40-man until after the 2016 season.

[Mass Haas]

RHP Zach Davies will be an automatic 40-man add this fall. Although the 22-year-old's stat line begins in 2012, he was drafted in 2011 (26th round), and that year counts for 40-man purposes. He was likely to debut next spring with the big club regardless.