Handicapping the landing spots for Parra or Gomez

[MrTPlush]

Keeping Parra is way too risky. He would have to keep up his current production just to even consider a QO...which is already unlikely. Then you have to risk the QO and hope a team wants to go 5+ years on an average defender who before this year was average at best with the bat. I don't see it to be honest. It is possible, but not even close to be worth the risk. We will get a decent prospect that is just as good as a comp round guy.

[jwill535]

MA more or lesss stated that they are willing to rebuild in the interview with BA acouple weeks back.

[MrTPlush]

MA more or lesss stated that they are willing to rebuild in the interview with BA acouple weeks back.

 

That man can change his mind quickly...I mean what is his definition of a rebuild to him? Trade Parra and a mid tier FA signing? I thought they were looking to part with Gomez this deadline, but now reports are that they are asking for the moon. While that isnt unheard of before the deadline only to come down I really wonder what the plan is here.

 

I guess we will know in a couple of days

[jjfanec]

MA more or lesss stated that they are willing to rebuild in the interview with BA acouple weeks back.

 

That man can change his mind quickly...I mean what is his definition of a rebuild to him? Trade Parra and a mid tier FA signing? I thought they were looking to part with Gomez this deadline, but now reports are that they are asking for the moon. While that isnt unheard of before the deadline only to come down I really wonder what the plan is here.

 

I guess we will know in a couple of days

 

What is Melvin thinking asking the moon for a relatively cheap and extremely talented cf? The Brewers hand is not forced to deal guys right now. They have them under control and can deal them in the winter like Gallardo.

[gobrew23]

Keeping Parra is way too risky. He would have to keep up his current production just to even consider a QO...which is already unlikely. Then you have to risk the QO and hope a team wants to go 5+ years on an average defender who before this year was average at best with the bat. I don't see it to be honest. It is possible, but not even close to be worth the risk. We will get a decent prospect that is just as good as a comp round guy.

 

I don't think Parra has ever been considered just an average defender. He's a gold glover.

[pacopete4]

You can tell the people on this board who would make lousy GM's. Patience is a huge quality in a lot of these types of situations. Not key that but none of us have a clue what has been offered for any of these guys. Like most places in life these days, people are going to complain no matter what happens anyways.

[paul253]

It's not that people are impatient. It's them reading reports from what I assume to be people in the know. It's also them looking at Melvin and Attanassio's recent history of quiet trade deadlines despite being out of contention. I am so sick of people just assuming Melvin is going to get this right and posters giving us a hard time when we suggest he might not. And I'm frustrated with this franchise missing opportunity after opportunity after opportunity to trade away players when their value is at or near its peak. How do you expect to make a consistent winner when you stick to the same strategy that is obviously not working? The sad thing is that while they seem to have finally gotten it when it comes to drafting they still don't seem to get it at the major league level. And until they show otherwise forgive me for continuing to be skeptical.

[Mr Southpaw]

Ma likes the fact that 3,000,000 butts sit at Miller Park every year. The idea of winning games is important, but the butts are more important. Milwaukee is unique in that a small market can attract that many people every year with a mediocre team. MA cash cow is the fans of the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Do any of you ever watch Atlanta play on tv? If the team is not good the fans do not show.

[MrTPlush]

Keeping Parra is way too risky. He would have to keep up his current production just to even consider a QO...which is already unlikely. Then you have to risk the QO and hope a team wants to go 5+ years on an average defender who before this year was average at best with the bat. I don't see it to be honest. It is possible, but not even close to be worth the risk. We will get a decent prospect that is just as good as a comp round guy.

 

I don't think Parra has ever been considered just an average defender. He's a gold glover.

 

He is average or slightly above average to avoid argument...He is not close to what he was 2-3 years ago.

[JohnBriggs12]

Keeping Parra is way too risky. He would have to keep up his current production just to even consider a QO...which is already unlikely. Then you have to risk the QO and hope a team wants to go 5+ years on an average defender who before this year was average at best with the bat. I don't see it to be honest. It is possible, but not even close to be worth the risk. We will get a decent prospect that is just as good as a comp round guy.

 

I don't think Parra has ever been considered just an average defender. He's a gold glover.

 

He is average or slightly above average to avoid argument...He is not close to what he was 2-3 years ago.

 

No, he's the same fielder, it's the metrics that make it appear he's not. Fielding metrics are dubious to say the least. He likely wasn't as good as they showed him to be when he won the GG, and he's certainly better than they show him to be this year. Further his overall defensive metrics go down the more time he spends playing CF where his range isn't great. He's textbook in the way he goes back on a ball. He rarely makes a false step. You could use his play as an OF training aid. He's occasionally missed cutoff men this year, and those instances have hurt his metrics.

 

You guys are all underestimating Parra's value. Melky Cabrera, at 30, got 3 years, $42 million after turning down a QO after a season hitting .301/.351/.458 on top of a season hitting just .279/.322/.458. Cabera's number one comp through his age 29? Mark Kotsay. Lets compare Parra to Michael Brantley. Prior to 2014, Brantley posted OPSs of .623, .702, .750, and .728 from age 23 to 26. Last year he posted .890. Was that a fluke too? He's fallen back a bit this year to .821 not unlike one would expect of Parra in 2016 but certainly still good. If Brantley were a FA, is there any doubt, he'd get a QO? Absolutely not.

 

Too big a risk for the Brewers? I remind you the Brewers paid 37 year old Aramis Ramirez $14 million this year after he drove in just 25 runs in the 2nd half last year. I'm pretty certain the floor for a 29 year old Parra coming off his best season is a bit higher than that of a 37 year old Ramirez. Besides I think Parra will get a 3 year offer in the $30-$36 million range and he'll take the security that provides him over a one year deal and the Brewers will walk away with an extra pick. In this era we're in, offense is at a premium and teams that lack it will pay to get it.

 

Brewers will likely end up signing a value FA to replace Parra's lefty bat next year anyway. The recently traded David Murphy, who'll command $5-6 million would fit that profile, so the risk really isn't $15 million but more like the extra $10, as it was with Ramirez.

[fondybrewfan]

I still don't have any reason to believe the Brewers won't eventually trade at least one of Parra and Gomez. I would be shocked if Parra isn't traded since he is playing the best ball of his career and isn't coming back next year. Gomez is a little more iffy because he still has a year left on the contract. He is probably good as gone this offseason but I am not sure if he is traded in the next 3 days. Still a lot of time and someone could get desperate. I don't think there are a lot of contending teams in desperate need for a CF.

 

It just sucks so hard that Garza and Lohse have tanked so badly. I think pretty much everyone was banking on the possibility of trading those guys if this year didn't go well. No one could have foreseen how bad those two would be; especially Lohse. He was a great pick up for the first 2 years of the contract

[pogokat]

I want to disagree with briggs, but Parra is 6th in the league in batting now, and 9th in Ops. If he were to continue at this pace for the rest of the year, the Cabrera and Brantley comps seem perfect. He looks like the kind of guy that gets offered a QO, then signs a 4/50 contract somewhere. He's going to get a lot more than 6-7 million--- he's certainly not going to start next year as a 4th outfielder for anyone.

[JohnBriggs12]

I want to disagree with briggs, but Parra is 6th in the league in batting now, and 9th in Ops. If he were to continue at this pace for the rest of the year, the Cabrera and Brantley comps seem perfect. He looks like the kind of guy that gets offered a QO, then signs a 4/50 contract somewhere. He's going to get a lot more than 6-7 million--- he's certainly not going to start next year as a 4th outfielder for anyone.

 

Parra is also 4th in triples, 7th in doubles and 8th in slugging, and he's in the top 20 in a bunch more offensive categories.

 

Melvin just can't give away a player like that even for a rental. He has to get value in return. If offers aren't up to that, he's got options. The QO card is leverage.

[Boomer5]

Im beginning to come around with the idea of a 3 year $30 deal extension with Parra. Im loving having a real lead off hitter and at 28, he is figuring this hitting thing out.

 

Im not sure I even want to trade him at all right now unless the return package was incredible.

[Boomer5]

I want to disagree with briggs, but Parra is 6th in the league in batting now, and 9th in Ops. If he were to continue at this pace for the rest of the year, the Cabrera and Brantley comps seem perfect. He looks like the kind of guy that gets offered a QO, then signs a 4/50 contract somewhere. He's going to get a lot more than 6-7 million--- he's certainly not going to start next year as a 4th outfielder for anyone.

 

Parra is also 4th in triples, 7th in doubles and 8th in slugging, and he's in the top 20 in a bunch more offensive categories.

 

Melvin just can't give away a player like that even for a rental. He has to get value in return. If offers aren't up to that, he's got options. The QO card is leverage.

 

Every time you mentioned QO, I would just roll my eyes. But the guy is our MVP right now, and would be on many teams, not just one as bad as ours. If he was a real CF, I would have him as untouchable.

 

Throw in that he is a 28 year old lead off hitter now, and I have a guy I want to keep. In his last 145 games, he is at 839 OPS, so this isn't just a one month thing.

[And That]

A QO for Parra isn't the most ridiculous idea in the world if for some reason they can't get commensurate value in return. He's been worth more than $16MM twice in his career according to FanGraphs, and will be right around that mark again this year. Another consideration is that the Brewers only have about $60MM in salary commitments next season, and $7.25MM less than that if they trade KROD. If they aren't using their payroll capacity to get to the playoffs, it could make sense to make a gamble that Parra repeats his production and that they could try and trade him again next year.

 

Plus, given recent QO history, Parra may be likely to reject the QO anyway.

 

Which is not to say I think it should even get to that point. I am positive there is a strong market for Parra this year and if Melvin can't deal him, something in the Brewers' process went pretty wrong.

[brwrsfan]

Im beginning to come around with the idea of a 3 year $30 deal extension with Parra. Im loving having a real lead off hitter and at 28, he is figuring this hitting thing out.

 

Im not sure I even want to trade him at all right now unless the return package was incredible.

 

If we really like him that much, we can always attempt to resign him. There wouldn't be a QO offer on him at that point. We did it with K-Rod a couple years back. He'd probably only return if we could guarantee him a starting spot, which would really only happen if we give up on Davis or move Gomez and want Parra in CF.

 

Either way, now is the time to cash in on his all-time high value with a trade.

[Boomer5]

Im beginning to come around with the idea of a 3 year $30 deal extension with Parra. Im loving having a real lead off hitter and at 28, he is figuring this hitting thing out.

 

Im not sure I even want to trade him at all right now unless the return package was incredible.

 

If we really like him that much, we can always attempt to resign him. There wouldn't be a QO offer on him at that point. We did it with K-Rod a couple years back. He'd probably only return if we could guarantee him a starting spot, which would really only happen if we give up on Davis or move Gomez and want Parra in CF.

 

Either way, now is the time to cash in on his all-time high value with a trade.

 

As long as cash in means CASH IN then Im fine, but I would still make him my #1 FA target.

[JohnBriggs12]

The bottom line for Melvin is this. Either he gets more than the value of a supplemental first rounder in a deal or he holds on to Parra.

 

In this winter's FA class there are 3 OF in their 20's. Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Gerardo Parra. Both Upton and Heyward are locks to get QO. Their 2015 OPS are .752 and .760 respectively. Parra's currently sits at .889. We've all seen the projections for Heyward in FA. They're astronomical. Many teams will look at Parra as cheaper (but not cheap) alternative.

 

Roll your eyes if you want, the reality is Parra is going to get a minimum of $10 million per over a minimum of 3 years as a FA, and so he's worth a QO.

[jerichoholicninja]

This team isn't competing in 2016 and probably not in 2017. Resigning Parra would just be stupid. He is of best use to this franchise as a trade piece to get guys who will help the club in 2017 and beyond.

[bill hAll Star]

Here's what we know:

 

-It would probably be foolish to sign Parra given the team's current window

-There is some sort of chance (major injury, 2nd half fall-off, market not being what we thought) that we wouldn't get a comp pick.

 

Unless the offers are so completely terrible that the 80% chance of getting a comp pick is better than them, trade him now.

[LouisEly]

Welp, nailed the Parra to Baltimore one, but Gomez to Houston... not so much.