Taylor Jungmann Thread

[brewmann04]

I hope the Brewers go young and don't remove Jungmann when the rest of the Guys return.

I would not mind see Cravy getting starts in the Second half of the season.

[Outlander]

Those predicting a period of "darkness" for this franchise need to take off the shades.

I tend to not wear shades when it is dark. However, I agree that there are some nice pieces in the farm system and a number of years of team control in the starting rotation so there is certainly hope and it is not like the team will have to start from scratch. It just gives the team a chance to play these younger players without having to worry about winning now.

[reillymcshane]

I've been pretty enthusiastic about Jungmann. I thought he showed a lot of progress last year - improving K rates, lowering walk rates, all that sort of thing. I liked how he rebounded at AAA (after his promotion) after struggling early on last year.

 

I can't explain his performance at Colorado Springs. We all know the difficulty of pitching there. He had a 7.89 ERA at home, vs 4.85 on the road. So it's not like he was burning it up away from Colorado - but he was much better. I also don't know about the defense at Colorado Springs, as well as the field. The guy is a ground ball pitcher, and maybe he was victimized by bad defense and/or poor playing conditions. Maybe it helps having Lucroy behind the plate as well.

 

The thing I've noticed with Jungmann (as others have mentioned) is control. He has simply walked too many batters in his career. I'm not sure if his somewhat funky delivery makes repeating his pitches a little more difficult (just speculation), but he does seem to go through phases where things come together and he pitches well (or poorly). I suspect we are in a 'good' phase right now.

 

In the end, it's about consistency for Jungmann - not an uncommon thing for any pitcher (young or old). People talk about 'ace' material - I think that's a big stretch. He needs to show the ability to pitch consistent for an entire season - something he has never done. Doesn't mean he can't do it, but he hasn't shown that ability thus far.

 

I like Taylor. Looks like he could be a workhorse type of guy. He seems to throw pretty loose and easy. I would be thrilled if he ends up a #3 type of guy. I think getting him to that level of play will be helped by playing in Milwaukee with a couple of veteran catchers. And the early success is a great thing for Jungmann. No one likes to worry about getting yanked around if they have one bad outing - I think he's earned a little leash.

 

The last thing about Taylor is that it's great seeing the Brewers develop another real pitching prospect. He may not be an all-star, but if you can fill the middle/back of the rotation with cheap starters like Jungmann, you don't have to spend $10-15M on average veterans on the free agent market.

[Thurston Fluff]

In regard to the curve ball not working in CO I'm not sure that is accurate. I was listening to an interview in the pregame show once about the curve in CO. I don't remember who it was but think it was Jungman. He didn't say the curve doesn't work there. You just have to really be on top of it to make it do what you want. Maybe I'm wrong but I took that to mean you really have to throw it perfectly to get it to do what you want. If that is the case I could see that as a plus in that it forces the pitcher to learn to throw the curve better. While it may not help him there I could see how the experience could help later on.

[BrewersAA]

The thing I've noticed with Jungmann (as others have mentioned) is control. He has simply walked too many batters in his career. I'm not sure if his somewhat funky delivery makes repeating his pitches a little more difficult (just speculation), but he does seem to go through phases where things come together and he pitches well (or poorly). I suspect we are in a 'good' phase right now.

 

He has said in an interview that the "developmental" scrutiny in the minor leagues is one of the reasons he struggled with walks and ERA. Im not sure what it says about his make up, the brewers development, or what but its interesting. He said that they hate walks and you knew if you walked a guy you wouldnt be getting a chance to move up, so it caused him to try to be perfect on the corners or not pitch to the right situations, you couldnt pitch around a good hitter with a guy on second and first base open and one out. Anyway i dont remember the whole transcript but i thought that was really interesting. He basically called out the brewers developmental guys for the high walks and high ERA and said what they are doing to try to keep you from walking guys was causing him to walk more guys.

 

I just kind of go back to remembering that pitching is as much mental as it is physical. Jungmann's success kind of makes a guy wonder about Jed Bradley.

[reillymcshane]

The thing I've noticed with Jungmann (as others have mentioned) is control. He has simply walked too many batters in his career. I'm not sure if his somewhat funky delivery makes repeating his pitches a little more difficult (just speculation), but he does seem to go through phases where things come together and he pitches well (or poorly). I suspect we are in a 'good' phase right now.

 

He has said in an interview that the "developmental" scrutiny in the minor leagues is one of the reasons he struggled with walks and ERA. Im not sure what it says about his make up, the brewers development, or what but its interesting. He said that they hate walks and you knew if you walked a guy you wouldnt be getting a chance to move up, so it caused him to try to be perfect on the corners or not pitch to the right situations, you couldnt pitch around a good hitter with a guy on second and first base open and one out. Anyway i dont remember the whole transcript but i thought that was really interesting. He basically called out the brewers developmental guys for the high walks and high ERA and said what they are doing to try to keep you from walking guys was causing him to walk more guys.

 

I just kind of go back to remembering that pitching is as much mental as it is physical. Jungmann's success kind of makes a guy wonder about Jed Bradley.

Correct, there are so many factors in a player's development and make up. Peralta really stepped up last year by learning not to let a bad pitch or bad play get to him. He'd get angry and frustrated, and then give up big innings. I think he said that was a big reason he improved last year - he simply matured as a pitcher.

[BrewCrewForever]

I am curbing my enthusiasm with Taylor. He has been really fun to watch and has looked darn good. But as others have mentioned, we have seen this with Mike Fiers before and other pitchers. Enjoying it while it lasts, and hope it does last and he is a good pitcher in our rotation for years. Would be nice to have a 1st round pitcher workout in the rotation for a change.

[pacopete4]

I don't care what round of the draft they come in as long as they come. With Peralta, Fiers, Nelson and now possibly Jungmann as options for a rotation with actual upside it's nice to be a little excited. Granted he could turn into a pumpkin, they all could, but it's always easier to be pessimistic in these situations. Usually you then are right more often than not.

[Boomer5]

This is a fascinating story. Jungmann was so underwhelming his entire time with in the minors. He was OK, and was clearly a major league starter, but nothing screamed 1 or 2.

 

How do we evaluate pitchers going forward?

[tmwiese55]

The thing I've noticed with Jungmann (as others have mentioned) is control. He has simply walked too many batters in his career. I'm not sure if his somewhat funky delivery makes repeating his pitches a little more difficult (just speculation), but he does seem to go through phases where things come together and he pitches well (or poorly). I suspect we are in a 'good' phase right now.

 

He has said in an interview that the "developmental" scrutiny in the minor leagues is one of the reasons he struggled with walks and ERA. Im not sure what it says about his make up, the brewers development, or what but its interesting. He said that they hate walks and you knew if you walked a guy you wouldnt be getting a chance to move up, so it caused him to try to be perfect on the corners or not pitch to the right situations, you couldnt pitch around a good hitter with a guy on second and first base open and one out. Anyway i dont remember the whole transcript but i thought that was really interesting. He basically called out the brewers developmental guys for the high walks and high ERA and said what they are doing to try to keep you from walking guys was causing him to walk more guys.

 

I just kind of go back to remembering that pitching is as much mental as it is physical. Jungmann's success kind of makes a guy wonder about Jed Bradley.

 

Wow, that is really bad to hear. Might explain why they've been so bad at developing their own starting pitchers over the years other than Gallardo. That's tough to read. Hopefully some of those folks are gone now

[danzig6767]

This is a fascinating story. Jungmann was so underwhelming his entire time with in the minors. He was OK, and was clearly a major league starter, but nothing screamed 1 or 2.

 

How do we evaluate pitchers going forward?

Watching them pitch over a more extended time frame like pretty much any other pitcher.

[brewmann04]

I would be very happy if he stays as a #3 right now keeping the walks down and continue to Get Groundballs that the key.

[gregmag]

This is a kindergarten question for people who really know advanced stats, but is there any reliable relationship between ground ball rate and BABIP? What I'm wondering, of course, is whether any part of Jungmann's deviation (so far) from a normal BABIP might owe to his ability to induce ground balls and not to luck.

[igor67]

My recollection is that ground balls usually generate a higher batting average, but dramatically cut into power.

[jerichoholicninja]

My recollection is that ground balls usually generate a higher batting average, but dramatically cut into power.

 

Speaking as someone who has been a groundball pitcher my whole life I can tell you that some days those groundballs are hit at fielders and some days they're hit between them. My BAA has always been on the high side but I don't give up many homeruns or doubles.

[LouisEly]

This is a kindergarten question for people who really know advanced stats, but is there any reliable relationship between ground ball rate and BABIP? What I'm wondering, of course, is whether any part of Jungmann's deviation (so far) from a normal BABIP might owe to his ability to induce ground balls and not to luck.

Generally speaking, what I've read is that in the majors they have much more data on hitters so they know much more where batters hit balls, which allows for better placement of defenders. A guy who has been in the majors for 7-10 years will have 7-10 years of spray charts; you don't have that on guys in the minors, and spray charts may not be as relevant in the minors anyway when guys make the big jumps (A to AA, rookie to A). I don't have stats to prove it, but if this is true then ground ball pitchers would seem do better in the majors because of better defensive positioning due to more data.

 

Generally speaking, there isn't much scouting done in the minors for the purposes of winning - the scouting is done predominantly for the purposes of talent evaluation. In the majors much more scouting is done for the purposes of winning, so much more data is collected on where guys tend to hit the ball.

[MrTPlush]

To my understanding a groundball pitcher will typically have a higher BABIP. Since grounders go for hits more often than fly balls. A lot of elite pitchers are pretty extreme fly ball type guys. It's also important to note that much off .300 can be a red flag for pitchers...but not unheard of. Obviously there are a lot more factors, but more likely than not Jungmann is not going to be a .250 BABIP pitcher or even close for that matter.

 

Here is a good read for anyone needing some knowledge on BABIP:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

[1992casey]

According to the article above, hitters are generally compared to their career BABIP and pitchers are generally compared to the league BABIP. This is because pitchers need much larger samples for their BABIPs to "stabilize." Hitters' BABIP will likely stabilize after 800 balls in play while pitchers need about 2,000 balls in play for that to happen.

 

Maybe it's better to look at a stat like xFIP at this point. Jungmann's xFIP is currently 3.83. That's encouraging, but it does suggest that his 2.15 ERA is likely affected by defense and good fortune.

 

Of course, no matter how you slice and dice it, all Major League samples are small right now.

[MrTPlush]

According to the article above, hitters are generally compared to their career BABIP and pitchers are generally compared to the league BABIP. This is because pitchers need much larger samples for their BABIPs to "stabilize." Hitters' BABIP will likely stabilize after 800 balls in play while pitchers need about 2,000 balls in play for that to happen.

 

Maybe it's better to look at a stat like xFIP at this point. Jungmann's xFIP is currently 3.83. That's encouraging, but it does suggest that his 2.15 ERA is likely affected by defense and good fortune.

 

Of course, no matter how you slice and dice it, all Major League samples are small right now.

 

Well FIP is only going to tell us his true performance right now. What I am talking about is the regression past that. FIP won't consider a crazy low BABIP, how he usuallly walks more guys, or the lack of scouting reports on him. That's the real concern for me.

 

He is always going to outplay his FIP. I expect him to walk a lot of guys which will spike up his FIP, but he will make up for it in double plays/ground balls. Now he won't outplay it over a whole run, but a .3-.5(maybe more) gap would not be shocking.

 

As you said the sample sizes are small, but he does have quite a few years in the minors. While not the most accurate translation to MLB we can't be perfect. If only we knew how everyone would end up.

[logan82]

FIP assumes a league average BABIP. Some guys can consistently outperform their FIP.

 

A hravy GB pitcher will usually have a lower BABIP. More GB means fewer line drives.

[umphrey]

When it comes to value for a pitcher, strike outs are a really important stat. There can be low ERA guys because they have good defense and big ball parks but if a guy is striking out 1 out of 3 hitters every inning then he can probably pitch anywhere. If you go and sort starters by K/9 you'll find all the big contracts and the guys who are about to get big contracts.

[LouisEly]

When it comes to value for a pitcher, strike outs are a really important stat. There can be low ERA guys because they have good defense and big ball parks but if a guy is striking out 1 out of 3 hitters every inning then he can probably pitch anywhere. If you go and sort starters by K/9 you'll find all the big contracts and the guys who are about to get big contracts.

Mike Fiers hopes this is true - brotha' gonna get PAID!

[JohnBriggs12]

Jungmann has a WAR of 1.8 after 7 starts. That's tied for 8th among all rookies and is 4th among pitchers. All of the pitchers with higher WARs have more appearances and innings.

[BrewersAA]

Just incredibly, he flirted with disaster tonight and still was stellar. He just keeps showing hes a lot better than anyone thought. How did the brewers player development team not see more in him faster?

[MrTPlush]

The one thing Jungmann has that no other Brewer developed pitcher ever seems to have is the ability not to get flustered. He keeps his composer pretty well throughout a game other than occassionally just not throwing a strike no matter what. He got into bad counts with the pitcher twice today, yikes.

 

I bet that stems from his time as a big game pitcher in college. Regardless he has been impressive in that regard for a rookie.