Jorge Ortega

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Jorge is having a fantastic season at Bevard this year, but he has not received much attention in the prospect rankings. In addition to his 2.33 ERA, he has 4 CG this year. I did some searching to learn more about him, but there is very little out there. If anyone knows what types of pitches he throws and speed on his fastball, I'd love to hear it. Since I have not actually seen him pitch, all I could go on is his stats (From Baseball-Reference.com):

 

[pre]Year League ERA IP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 K/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

2015 A+ 2.33 85 0.941 7.8 0.6 0.6 4.4 7.00 0.228 0.244 0.358 0.602 0.248

2014 RK+ 4.23 83 1.181 9.8 1.4 0.9 5.0 5.75 0.274 0.296 0.495 0.791 0.281

2013 RK- 4.15 56.1 1.260 9.7 0.8 1.6 6.6 4.10 0.266 0.299 0.472 0.771 0.301

2012 DSL 2.54 78 1.205 9.8 0.0 1.5 6.1 4.08 0.270 0.298 0.323 0.621 0.321

2011 DSL 3.16 74 1.095 7.8 0.5 1.5 5.5 3.75 0.252 0.296 0.369 0.665 0.283[/pre]

 

The low strikeout rates are concerning, but those walk rates are excellent. His BAbip is very low this year compared to past seasons which will means he should regress to the mean in the second half. Note that he also seems to minimize the HR (last year as an exception). Digging into this further, let's see what kind of pitcher he is. Considering the low HRs, you would think he is a GB pitcher. Think again...

 

[pre]Year League GB/FB GB% FB% LD% IFFB% HR/FB

2015 A+ 0.54 29% 54% 17% 13% 3%

2014 RK+ 0.73 36% 49% 15% 12% 8%

2013 RK- 0.66 35% 52% 13% 17% 4%

2012 DSL 0.88 41% 47% 12% 20% 0%

2011 DSL 0.77 39% 50% 11% 21% 4%[/pre]

Typical averages per Fan Graphs are GB/FB ~ 1.3, GB% ~ 44%, FB% ~ 35%, LD% ~ 21%, IFFB% ~ 11%, HR/FB ~ 10%

 

He is an extreme Fly Ball pitcher as his FB% (Fly balls / Balls in play) has consistently been around 50%. Clearly the pitcher friendly FSL is helping him this year. However, it appears batters do not make good contact off him. Over his career, his Line Drive percent is lower than average and Infield Fly Ball Percentage (Popups) is well above average. Now take a look at his Home Runs per Fly Ball ratio. Even in 2014, when he gave up 1.4 HR per 9 innings, he still had a low HR/FB due to the number of fly balls he gave up. It is unusual to have a pitcher consistently keep his HR/FB rate below 10% over his career. In 2012 he did not allow a single HR in 78 innings, which is remarkable for the Dominican Summer League.

 

Conclusion: Not sure we can make one yet. Being a fly ball pitcher his stats are skewed in the Florida State League. Next year at AA will be the true test for him. I am intrigued by his control and seemingly ability to induce weak contact (deceptive delivery?) although the results could be due to the inexperienced competition. He is still young yet at age 22 in high A ball. But based purely on stats and not knowing what he throws, I would rank him somewhere in the 25-30 range of the Brewers prospects until he performs like this at higher levels.

 

What are your thoughts?

[TheCrew07]

He skipped WI so I'll be honest in that I know very little about him. He didn't even make the Brewers' top 30 from BA so there's literally no scouting information out there on him that I could find.

[WV Brew]

He throws the basic 4 pitches: fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. Speed generally in the low 90's (fastball). As you point out, his best feature is his control, command. He can spot all 4 pitches which makes him tough to barrel up on. We'll have to see if he can keep up the pace he's on. He also is not really a groundball pitcher either. Unique combination of skills as far as the Brewers organization is concerned.

[reillymcshane]

The walk rates are just insane. Every year has been great, but this year is awesome. Just 6 walks in 85 innings. He's always been hittable, but the low walk rates mitigate that. And his control lets him go deep into games, which is a valuable ability.

 

If he can keep it up, he'd really be an interesting guy for a team with a good defense.

[MrTPlush]

Yah I am not so sure how he will fare once he gets to the big leagues. The low walk rate is great, but you still have to have good pitches. You can't just throw it over the plate and pray at the MLB level. The low K rate and tendency to be a fly ball pitcher is a bit of a turn off for me. Doesn't sound like the best bullpen prospect for those two reasons and sounds a bit small to be a starter.

 

So he is a bit of a tweener and his stuff doesn't blow you away. I am working on little information, but this is my understanding of him. Sounds like a fringe prospect.

[clancyphile]

The low walk rate tells me he's got control down pat. Maybe he can be taught to induce ground balls. Otherwise, he could be something we try to get some other team to bite on.

[Outlander]

Same old story last night, 1 run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts. I have a feeling that even if he keeps this up in AA and AAA there will still be many doubters that he can do this at the big league level. Hopefully he can get a shot around 2017 or so when the Brewers are still not real good so they can see what he can do in the majors.

[JohnBriggs12]

Same old story last night, 1 run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts. I have a feeling that even if he keeps this up in AA and AAA there will still be many doubters that he can do this at the big league level. Hopefully he can get a shot around 2017 or so when the Brewers are still not real good so they can see what he can do in the majors.

 

Glad your crystal ball is clear on how good the Brewers will be in 2017. Mine can't see beyond next week.

 

There's a lot of successful pitchers in the big leagues who had doubters. Almost any pitching coach will say that the key to success for any pitcher at any level is fastball command. If you have that, you can get hitters out. It would appear that not only can he command his fastball but that he can get his other pitches over. If guys are getting themselves out early in counts, he's not going to accumulate too many strikeouts. Of course pitching against big league hitters might require an adjustment in his approach, but if the skill is there to throw it where you want, that can be learned too.

[Outlander]

Must be a pretty murky crystal ball to not see the Brewers will be pretty bad for at least a couple of years. Should get a new one.

[clancyphile]

Same old story last night, 1 run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts. I have a feeling that even if he keeps this up in AA and AAA there will still be many doubters that he can do this at the big league level. Hopefully he can get a shot around 2017 or so when the Brewers are still not real good so they can see what he can do in the majors.

 

Glad your crystal ball is clear on how good the Brewers will be in 2017. Mine can't see beyond next week.

 

There's a lot of successful pitchers in the big leagues who had doubters. Almost any pitching coach will say that the key to success for any pitcher at any level is fastball command. If you have that, you can get hitters out. It would appear that not only can he command his fastball but that he can get his other pitches over. If guys are getting themselves out early in counts, he's not going to accumulate too many strikeouts. Of course pitching against big league hitters might require an adjustment in his approach, but if the skill is there to throw it where you want, that can be learned too.

 

Ortega's numbers are intriguing... and he did slip off my top-25 ballot (wasn't sure about his Rookie numbers, and I did kinda miss on Tim Dillard, who also racked up CGs at Brevard County, but never became a starter).

 

My worry is that the Brewers make the same mistake with Ortega they made with Dillard - move him from the rotation to the bullpen, and wreck his shot at being a good starter.

[Mr Southpaw]

He looked good last night.

[Jenkins5]

Ortega has a big league future, I believe that. He throws low 90's with pinpoint command. He will be a Estrada type, career #5 type starter who will either be on and give u a great 7-9ip or get shelled in 4. He will give up a bunch of HRs as he advances on days he isn't hitting his spots. The fact he pitches 100% to contact with no K ability as of yet though is my 1 concern

 

He is interesting though

Unheralded 3rd wheel to Rizzo & Gomez in DSL 4 two years. Now they think enough of him to skip over Wisconsin. Rizzo has been ehh in Wisconsin and Gomez had to be demoted to Helena. Interesting how that has worked out.

 

Still young, plenty of time to improve secondary stuff to get some ks in future

[CheezWizHed]

AA ball will tell a lot for him. He is having his first real success in a pitcher's park. Contact pitchers normally need a lot of movement on their FB to keep from getting shelled at the upper levels and MLB. So those would be items to watch for next year.