Draft Pick Discussion Thread, Rounds 1-5

[RyDogg66]

MAybe we should have drafted some high school RHPs who dont know how to pitch, or "toolsy" guys who project to be good....but are raw.

 

I think Laporta and Lucruy have plenty of upside.

[LUKE232323]

Just because LaPorta is a college senior doesn't mean he has "no upside". That's ridiculous. What if he comes in and is just good right away, but then doesn't improve much? Is that worse than a HS prospect that starts out slow but then eventually reaches that level?

 

People are always enamored with "potential". What about production?

 

And Jack Z gets paid to do this, and has had GREAT returns on position players in the past, so why do you know more than he does?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Maybe LaPorta has upside maybe he doesnt but when i hear him being compared to the likes of Greg Colburn and Scott Hatteberg it really makes me question the selection. If Hatteberg is a legit comparison then the Brewers made a terrible pick. I personally prefer the high upside high school kids like Fielder and Gallardo versus the polished finished products with little upside like Antone Williamson and Chad Green.

[homer]

That was one scout making one comparison. I've heard him compared to Albert Pujols as well.

[Robideaux]

bklynbrewcrew--

 

I call your Antone Williamson and Chad Green with a J.M. Gold and an Isaiah Clark and I'll raise you a Kenny Henderson, Dave Krynzel, and Mike Jones.

 

I wouldn't read too much into one dude comparing LaPorta to Hatteberg. Jenkins, Weeks, Braun, and Sheets all played in college so obviously guys don't lack "upside" based solely on that fact. Who knows, you might be right about LaPorta, but you might be wrong.

 

Also, what's so bad about the A's. They've made the playoffs five times already since 2000 and won over 90 games all but one year when they won (only) 88. I won't speak for others, but I would personally love that sort of "mediocrity" from the Brewers.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Oakland has been good at producing pitchers but terrible at developing everyday players with the exception of Swisher in the last five years. The Brewers philosophy under Jack Z has always been high ceiling guys which I am not sure LaPorta is.

[LUKE232323]

Who's comparing him to Hatteburg? Did Hatteburg have a 1.400 OPS in the SEC?

 

This guy has power to all fields and great plate discipline. I'm not worried about the pick.

[LUKE232323]

I guess I don't understand the ceiling comment. LaPorta could likely come in and be consistently good to great, but then not improve much from that level. Why is that a bad thing?

[homer]

Quote:

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Oakland has been good at producing pitchers but terrible at developing everyday players with the exception of Swisher in the last five years.

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Funny you mention Swisher because that is who came to my mind immediately after the pick was announced. High OBP, lots of power....I wasn't sure how athletic Swisher was coming out of college though so I didn't say anything.

 

Swisher was a college guy and he turned out OK.

[monty57]

"He called me and said that the (Cincinnati) Reds had called and said they were going to definitely take me with their next pick," Lucroy said. "He called the Brewers and the (Colorado) Rockies, teams that had picks right in front of the Reds, and told them if they wanted to draft me they needed to do it now. It put a little pressure on them."

 

The Brewers had pick number 101, with the Rockies picking next at 102 ahead of the Reds' No. 104 pick. Colorado took catcher Lars Davis of Illinois right after Lucroy's selection.

 

Boy, that sucks for the Reds. Maybe that's why it's not a good idea to let people know who you're going to draft.

 

I'm excited about Lucroy. For those of you who know more about college vs. minor league stats, how does Lucroy stack up against Salome... their birthdays are five days apart.

 

As far as LaPorta, I can't see how drafting the best power bat in the draft is a bad thing. As long as he can play LF (which it appears the Brewers think he can) he seems to be a perfect fit. At his age, it would seem likely that he could be up sometime next season or early in 2009 to fill in one of the two holes in the lineup (Catcher is the other) that we don't have filled up long-term.

 

The Berkman analogy mentioned early in this thread seems to be a good one. LaPorte plays LF while Prince is around. If the Brewers re-sign Prince, great. If not, LaPorte shifts back to 1B. I hate to think this way, but if Prince continues to hit the way he is, he's going to get very expensive very quickly. Cabrera and Zambrano just set record arby contracts (I believe $7MM in year one and $10.5MM in year three). In a few years, when Prince hits arby, he could see a $10MM contract, and could price himself out of Milwaukee in the same way Cabrera may be pricing himself out of Florida. It's a good idea to have a backup plan in case that happens.

[Robideaux]

I am not a scout, but I don't see the comparison between LaPorta and Hatteberg based on their college numbers. Hatteberg topped out at a grand total of 8 home runs as a sophomore. His slugging% was .628. These aren't crazy Nintendo numbers.

 

Keith Law, or whoever it was, was probably just trying to think of another guy who caught some in college, but whose bat was good enough (or glove bad enough) to switch to 1B. LaPorta had more power than anyone in else in the draft. Hatteberg was not even a first round pick. I would however be happy if LaPorta displays Hatteberg's propensity for drawing walks in the bigs.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I don't know what to make of the Colbrunn / Hatteberg comparison, partly because I don't see those two guys as similar to each other. Colbrunn was a 6th-round pick out of HS, righty bat with some pop who didn't walk all that much...Hatteberg a supp first rounder from Washington State, lefty hitter with less power but a much better walk rate. So how are those two guys similar when you're talking about draft day?

 

From what we can see, LaPorta is a good hitter with big time power, walks a lot but doesn't strike out like most power hitters, righty bat with mediocre defensive tools (range, arm). None of that says Colbrunn or Hatteberg to me...more like Burrell or, if we could dream, Frank Thomas. Or, on the down side, maybe a Matt LeCroy?

[homer]

I did see LeCroy's name associated with LaPorta somewhere. Not sure if it's because they are similar players or because they have two capital letters in their last names.

[Oldcity]

Just thought I'd share this. A Gators fan stumbled across my blog and left the following post about LaPorta (linked in my sig). Obviously it's not a totally neutral source, but I found it encouraging nonetheless.

 

"As an avid Gator baseball fan who has watched LaPorta play week in and week out for three years, let me tell you this pick is definitely worth it. Don?t believe all the crap about his defense; it?s continually puzzled me and my fellow Gator fans, as well as most everyone in college baseball?coaches, players, analysts, etc.?that everyone seems so down on his glove. In the college ranks everyone says his defense is very underrated. He?s more athletic than the scouts will have you think. I have no problem believing he?ll transition well to LF. He played a bit his freshman year.

 

His power is just amazing. I?ve never seen a more impressive college hitter. Not only does he have great power, but he hits for average too. He?s greatly improved his plate discipline and pitch selection, shown by the low number of K?s and the high OBP, though that also has something to do with the fact he was intentionally walked 30 times this season.

 

On top of that, he?s a gamer. He plays hurt and he?s a great leader, and just an overall great guy in general. You?re very lucky to have him. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif "

[UWRyan428]

What about Adam Dunn? He is the epitome of a 3TO performer, though I would prefer Lance Berkman. Personally, I look at those numbers and I think the big-headed Bonds. What I don't get is how people think he is going to be trade fodder at next year's deadline. Theoretically, it could happen without being a PTBNL since August 15 is past the trade deadline for next year, but it would seem that he would make Gross or Mench expendable next year. But no matter. I'm just happy that we got this year's Ryan Braun. Does no one remember when we drafted the ACC Freshman of the Year, but it was considered a reach? Complaints? Anyone?

[homer]

Well he's really not a 3TO because he doesn't strike out all that much.

[iluvlamp]

Is Joey Paciorek related to the former Brewer and White Sock?

[Trowekamp]

John Sickel's Pre-draft comments on Laporta before the daft. More can be found on this web-site at www.minorleagueball.com

 

The hitter board:

 

 

Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

 

Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County HS, McDonough, GA

 

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS, CA

 

Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS, CA

 

Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis Clark State College

 

Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS, CA

 

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS, Houston, TX

 

Matt LaPorta, 1B, University of Florida

 

Devin Mesaraco, C, Punxsutawney HS, PY

 

Corey Brown, OF, Oklahoma State

 

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Liberty-Elyau HS, Texarkana, TX

 

Julio Borbon, OF, University of Tennessee

 

I've thought about LaPorta for the last couple of hours, and I think the commentators are right to move him ahead of Brown, although I still like Brown more than Borbon. LaPorta is very close to the majors and his combination of power and contact really stands out. I then had to decide how to slot LaPorta in with Ahrens and Mesaraco, and I ended up just splitting the difference.

[patrickgpe]

i think the biggest complaint on the pick is that most of us don't know who he is and were shocked by the pick. I sure as heck was when i saw it while on a boat and following the draft on my cell.

 

You have to trust Z on these picks. He has a favorable track record. This site would of been happy with Parker or Heyward. but that doesn't guarantee success.

[patrickgpe]

for those on facebook: join this group

 

matt laporta is a beast

[sbrylski]

I'm getting more and more exciting about the pick each hour. As the surpise wears off, and I read more and more, I can't believe nobody was really asking for him before yesterday. I absolutely love the fact that he's already close to the bigs and is going to have quite a high probability of having a major league career.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The Brewers seem to be the only ones who think he can play left field. Everwhere else I read says he is an average first baseman and more likely a DH. They better hope he can become at least an average left fielder and bash his way to the majors because Heyward and Parker both have the chance to be outstanding.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Apparently they worked him out at the Brevard County park, including some outfield time, and felt that he could do it. We'll see I guess....

[PrimetimeHater]

Well if it makes anyone feel better...apparently college first basemen are the safest pick around.

 

www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152

Quote:

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Draft

 

Rule #12: College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

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[Never Outhustled]

Well if it makes anyone feel better...apparently college first basemen are the safest pick around.

 

Wow PTH, thats awesome. So your telling me LaPorta has a 1 in 3 chance of being a HOF? Why were we so oblivious to the selection beforehand?