Draft Pick Discussion Thread, Rounds 1-5

[Boy Jeenius]

3 signed DFE's are pitchers, Robinson, Bryson & Tyson. plus we never really know what they have "brewing" with signing latin kids.

[DHonks]

are they officially stopping it at 5 rounds today, or are they going to keep going? If they don't keep going, I'll bet it goes into Saturday, too

[Oldcity]

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A guy like Lucroy is going to take some serious cash to sign as a 3rd rounder.

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What makes you say that Peavy? IIRC Cole Gillespie was a junior and a third round pick, and he signed quickly. Is there anything unique about Lucroy, or were you saying that mainly because he's a junior? I would be surprised if the Brewers used a third round pick on a guy they weren't pretty sure would sign.

[PeaveyFury]

IIRC Cole Gillespie was a junior and a third round pick, and he signed quickly.

 

Lucroy: .360/.408/.659/1.067

 

Gillespie(I originally had his 05 stats here, sorry): .370/.492/.683/1.175

 

Lucroy absolutely mashed this year, and he's a catcher. While Gillespie was a quick sign, I don't remember how much we actually paid him. But those numbers out of a JR catcher is astounding.

[Oldcity]

Fair enough. I hadn't seen Lucroy's line; that's some serious slugging.

[Never Outhustled]

They've taken three players with some leverage in a row here- two juniors and a HS guy that is being pursued by much of the SEC.

 

All very easy signs by the Brewers. Whats Lucroy going to do, go back and play his senior year and improve his stock playing small school college ball?The only way he could improve his stock is by becoming a top ten pick, and he's just not that kind of player. His numbers are similar to the small school catcher the Brewers drafted in round 7 last year, and signed for $115 K. lucroy will jump at slot money as will Farris.

[PeaveyFury]

The only way he could improve his stock is by becoming a top ten pick, and he's just not that kind of player.

 

Or by becoming a 1st or 2nd rounder? It's not like this guy was taken 34th, he was picked 101 overall! By definition, he would improve his stock if he moved up at all, and in terms of the payslots, every little bit helps.

 

In terms of cash received, he's potentially talking the difference between like 200,000 and 1-3 million dollars.

 

As I said before, they've got leverage. As in, Lucroy will likely get more than the 7 player taken in the 3rd round would normally get. With no second rounder, the Brewers have extra cash to play with, so they should be able to get some deals done.

[agent39]

another DDSM brewer? My god. We're advising Gindl, hopefully we get something done soon.

[Never Outhustled]

Or by becoming a 1st or 2nd rounder? It's not like this guy was taken 34th, he was picked 101 overall! By definition, he would improve his stock if he moved up at all, and in terms of the payslots, every little bit helps.

 

In terms of cash received, he's potentially talking the difference between like 200,000 and 1-3 million dollars.

 

College seniors don't usually get slot value contracts, because they have no leverage. Bonus info can be found at BA. lucroy could move up and still get less money. As the 101st pick, Lucroy will get about $380 K.

 

For an example, we'll use Matt Long. He was a 35 rounder in 2005 after coming back from TJ surgury. He returned for his senior year, and moved into round 2, #73, a $490 K slot. As a senior with no leverage, he recieved just a $390 K bonus. It was a good move for him, but it wouldn't have been worth the risk at all if he'd already been drafted in a $380 K slot.

[splitterpfj]

39! I forgot we had a secret agent around here.

 

What can you tell us about Gindl...and....can you get 2700 autographs for my friends?

[brettac1]

LuCroy will sign with ease. There are questions about how real his power even is (thanks to competition concerns) so he'd have to go to the Cape and mash (it isn't very likely that he'd be invited). He has a lot more to lose than he has to gain.

[colbyjack]

Just getting back from softball. They only got through five rounds so far? Yikes.

 

Lucroy is an awesome pick, I'm very happy to see that, and I'm surprised to see he made it that far. He immediately becomes the organization's second or third best catching prospect, depending on how high you are on Palmisano.

 

The organization must be happy with their arms, although I'm sure the DFE class may have had something to do with that.

[SoCalBrewfan]

As I said before, they've got leverage. As in, Lucroy will likely get more than the 7 player taken in the 3rd round would normally get.

 

But nearly all players taken at this point have leverage...unless they're college seniors. HS kids can go JC or 4-year college, JC kids can go to a 4-year school or, in some cases, return to a JC, and college juniors have the option to return. So there's nothing particularly special about Lucroy as far as leverage goes. Moreover, the Brewers are sure to know what his demands are like, and feel that they can reach an agreement, or they wouldn't have spent their second pick of the draft on him. And from the player's end, there's risk in returning to school...on top of the risk of an injury or some serious regression, many college seniors get very little in the way of signing bonus, because they don't have any better options.

 

I'm not sure where the idea that Lucroy has some special amount of leverage comes from, but it just isn't consistent with what I've seen in past drafts at all.

 

Edit: Just to make it Lucroy in all cases instead of LuCroy.

[geothite]

I like the Lucroy pick, but OK where is the beef.

For the folks who don't like having to wait on HS players we will see now.

3 college picks and all 4 position players. No pesky arms to worry about.

These three guys have to move fast (the first 3 picks). If they aren't in AAA after a couple seasons I would be very worried.

THis is how I used to feel after the first day of a Sal Bando draft.

JAck Z your my man but I am having a hard time feeling you after the first 4 picks.

 

I like Lucroy a lot and Gindl some.

[sbrylski]

Lucroy sounds excellent, very pleased with what I'm reading about him. I am really happy about our first two picks.

 

What amazing insight and analysis I bring to the draft forum.

[TheCrew07]

So I was looking down the draft boards of the various teams in the NL and the Padres have 12 picks already. I don't know why, but it really chaps my rear the more I think about how lame this draft system is. Comp picks, international players not included in the draft, and so on...

 

Sorry for the rant, I need to vent and the cats don't seem to care.

[geothite]

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I'm finding this draft irritating, how about every team in a big market gets a bizillion extra picks to sign players away from each other? There really needs to be some net loss/gain equation put into the compensation picks somehow. 5 picks for the Padres? They can redraft half a team in the first round... just doesn't seem right.

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I agree. I was feeling the same way. It seems that all the rules to assure competetive balance is doing the opposite.

Also, the slotting seems to be hurting teams like the Brewers while a hand full of team with owners with deep pockets simply ignore it and load up on guys like Miller and Porcello.

My problem with LaPorta isn't that I don't think he can hit. It is with the 7th pick in the draft I expect to see a guy with more of a future upsode. I think LaPorta is about as good as he will ever get right now.

Also, I apolgize to him and Jack Z but this just feels like a reach at 7.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm not sure where the idea that Lucroy has some special amount of leverage comes from

 

Well, if you go back and read the thread, I said:

 

They've taken three players with some leverage in a row here- two juniors and a HS guy that is being pursued by much of the SEC.

 

So no, I'm not saying that Lucroy has a special amount of leverage, as I was actually commenting on how all of our last few picks had some degree of leverage. So, that idea hasn't come from this thread.

 

As a good performing junior catcher, I just think he'll end up signing for above slot value, that's all.

[tigerbrew]

Just woke up and finding out who the Brewers pick. It's a surprising pick LaPorta and I like it. An advanced impact bat with very good power and plate discipline, something the Brewers need in their lineup to backup Prince. The MLB.com scouting report on his hitting is really impressive...

 

Hitting Ability: Simply put, LaPorta can flat out hit. Period. After a subpar junior year because of injury, he's back raking again at Florida with outstanding plate discpline to boot.

 

Power: LaPorta has as much power as any bat, especially from the college ranks, in this draft class. He's got power to all fields and can hit the ball out of any ballpark with any kind of bat.

 

Strengths: He can hit and hit with plenty of power.

 

Listening to Zduriencik and Melvin's press conference, their minor league coaches think LaPorta is okay at LF in his tryouts, and he could also serve as Prince's backup at 1B. Melvin said that LaPorta will probably sign with the Brewers in 3 days. He could be playing in the minors in a couple of weeks and I'm excited to see what he can do.

 

I like the Lucroy pick too, good defensive catcher with an above average arm and good offensive numbers.

[heresrobin]

Colby, are you at all disappointed that the Brewers went with Lucroy instead of Lars Davis at catcher? Davis went right after Lucroy in the draft and I know you had Davis pegged as one of your "picks" in your Draft Preview article.

 

Also, a few notable names that seemed to fall were Kyle Russell and Jake Arrieta. Does this mean that Russell is all but guaranteed to go back to college for his Junior year at Texas?

[tigerbrew]

Quote:

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It is with the 7th pick in the draft I expect to see a guy with more of a future upsode. I think LaPorta is about as good as he will ever get right now. Also, I apolgize to him and Jack Z but this just feels like a reach at 7.

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Well if it's any consolation, the Brewers history with the 7th pick is pretty good. Before LaPorta, the only other 7th pick for the Brewers was Prince, it was not well received by many but it has turned out to be an excellent pick. LaPorta's offensive numbers are very impressive, let's give Jack Z the benefit of the doubt and see how he pans out.

[Never Outhustled]

So I was looking down the draft boards of the various teams in the NL and the Padres have 12 picks already. I don't know why, but it really chaps my rear the more I think about how lame this draft system is

 

It is frusturating, but if it makes you feel any better, SD wasted a ton of there picks on extremely low ceiling players who profile as backups at best. They're following the A's formula they used to ruin there minor league system.

[colbyjack]

Colby, are you at all disappointed that the Brewers went with Lucroy instead of Lars Davis at catcher? Davis went right after Lucroy in the draft and I know you had Davis pegged as one of your "picks" in your Draft Preview article.

 

Not at all. I expected a huge run on college catchers in the monster supplemental round, and was very surprised and pleased to see Lucroy's name among the Brewers picks when I got home this evening. Lars Davis is a fine catching prospect, but he just doesn't have the tools or upside that Lucroy does.

 

I really like the team's top four picks. I think Lucroy may well replicate what Palmisano did to start his career, Farris could be the second coming of Fernando Vina, while Gindl is likely to draw some Brian Giles comparisons if he continues to show what he can do early in his career (sorry for the unfair comparison, but shorter left-handed hitting outfielders often draw that comparison, much like crafty lefties are compared to Tom Glavine). And of course you have LaPorta's power, which I noted before, adds a big bat to a system that needs one.

 

I'm guessing the Brewers go heavy with pitching in rounds 6-10.

 

Tough call on Russell. The Cards may just pony up the dough necessary to sign him away from Texas and his junior season. I doubt the Cardinals, or any team, would have taken him if they didn't feel strongly about their chances to sign him, particularly since a fourth rounder won't offer any compensation for next year's draft should they be unable to sign him. You just never know...

[Brian the Automator]

[ Sorry for the rant, I need to vent and the cats don't seem to care. ]

 

They care, but they just can't verbalize it.

[splitterpfj]

Glancing back through things, the picks seem to make sense to me. They fit organizational needs, they seem to have proven skills as opposed to "tools", and they appear to be the type that will sign fairly quickly.

 

Nobody knows for a while of course, but at this point, I like it.