College Basketball Thread 2015-16

[homer]

I don't understand why they are being punished so much for losses that happened 2-3 months ago. Win 10 of the last 11 in the Big Ten including three against top-10 teams and STILL no top 25? Are you kidding? Right now they should be a 6 with a chance to move up to 4 if they beat Purdue and pick up a couple wins in the B10 tourney.

 

 

At the end of the day those games still count. If UW had beaten Oklahoma in December no one would be discounting it. Having said that, I bet the committee looks at things like the coaching change and how young the team is when deciding on how much to weigh the early season struggles.

[MrTPlush]

Yah how Wisconsin is still a bubble 8/9 seed is a bit surprising. Yah they have some pretty horrid losses, but they were long ago. Texas has been pretty similar(ignore tonight) to Wisconsin of late and are all the way up to a #5 seed. To me Wisconsin is a #7 right now and could argue to be a #6 seed if they can have a nice conference tourney.

 

I don't think their big wins of late have really been considered such big wins.

[superfly]

I don't understand why they are being punished so much for losses that happened 2-3 months ago. Win 10 of the last 11 in the Big Ten including three against top-10 teams and STILL no top 25? Are you kidding? Right now they should be a 6 with a chance to move up to 4 if they beat Purdue and pick up a couple wins in the B10 tourney.

 

 

At the end of the day those games still count. If UW had beaten Oklahoma in December no one would be discounting it. Having said that, I bet the committee looks at things like the coaching change and how young the team is when deciding on how much to weigh the early season struggles.

 

I like them in that 6/7 range better than a 4/5, but given our longstanding tourney cred I would think that the Badgers would/should get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

[Outlander]

Jerry Palm has noted that there have only been 4 teams to have 5 bad losses and still make the tournament. None have been seeded higher than 8. Therefore, I think it might be a stretch to get a 6 seed and I might get a little nervous if they lose to Minnesota as that would be 6 bad losses.

[fondybrewfan]

It really depends on what you consider bad losses. Palm has been very negative against UW during this entire run. I would assume he considers a bad loss to be to a team above 100 RPI. UWM and Western Illinois are certainly bad losses but Marquette is 113, Georgetown is 105, and Northwestern is 121. I don't think those should be considered horrible.

 

Plus I have to imagine it is incredibly rare to find a tournament worthy team with those kind of losses coupled with the huge wins. They have a 33 RPI despite 10 total losses and 5 losses over 100; that in itself is pretty incredible.

[jjfanec]

Jerry Palm has noted that there have only been 4 teams to have 5 bad losses and still make the tournament. None have been seeded higher than 8. Therefore, I think it might be a stretch to get a 6 seed and I might get a little nervous if they lose to Minnesota as that would be 6 bad losses.

 

I get that but those bad losses really are not that bad. 3 of them are to Marquette, Georgetown and Northwestern. Those teams are 96, 76, and 84 in Kenpom. It is just that in rpi they are 105 113 and 122. Rpi is the same ranking that wouldn't consider Penn state a bad loss bc they are in 96 or something. Wisconsin has two bad losses according to kenpom and most observers. Palm has for some reason took a hard line stance on the badgers. If those 3 teams win a couple down the stretch the badgers could all sudden only have 2 bad losses for Palm so then does he need to bump them up? He just is too rpi dependent.

 

Edit - fondy beat me to it

[brwrsfan]

I'll echo what everyone else has said...Palm is just being stubborn here. And I've addressed him on Twitter about it and he has actually responded...with snide comments. He's one of the worst "bracket experts" out there, I saw on another Badger forum that he's in the bottom 25% of "experts" that put out brackets. He's almost entirely driven by the RPI, which while still meaningful, isn't the end all be all as far as seedings go. Kenpom and the BPI are things that the committee looks at too.

 

And these are human beings, despite what they say, I still think it matters how a team plays and that big wins (especially on the road) highly outweigh bad losses.

 

Palm has basically just taken a hardline stance on the Badgers the last 2 months, and he's backed himself into a corner. I think he felt they'd lose some games and he'd be proven "right" but that hasn't happened and his stance has made him look silly but he has no real choice but to defend it now. He also went to Purdue, so maybe he has a bias

 

You guys are all correct on the "bad" losses. Are losses to Marq, GTown and NW good...not really. But they aren't horrible either. Is he giving equal weight to beating Sienna and Penn State, as those two are slightly inside the top 100. to have that hard of a stance and say inside 100 is good and a team at 105 is bad is just flat out silly. Marquette and Georgetown could both sneak into the top 100 with a win or two (they play each other tonight), does that suddenly negate that?

 

Lunardi and some of the others are much more accurate, and they already have Wisconsin in the 6-7 range. Lunardi was asked on Twitter about WI last night and he said they are a lock for the tournament, no matter what happens in the next 3. Palm sill refuses to believe that, but I have to imagine he's going to eat some serious crow on Twitter - fans are all over him in the comments of every single article he rights about WI.

[brwrsfan]

Not a great game tonight, especially in the second half. But wins are wins. And they were never really in an danger of blowing the big lead. Still like to see them just drop the hammer in that second half.

 

Not that there ever was before, but there is zero chance of missing the big dance any more. Amazing job by Gard and this Badger team!

[pacopete4]

Stayed away from a trap game tonight and were in control 99% of the game. On Wisconsin!

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't begrudge Palm for not making the Badgers a lock until after the Minnesota game. I always kind of thought they needed to get to 20 wins to be completely safe if some conference tournament weirdness goes on, and ESPN's bubble watch still hadn't moved them over to the lock category yet either (even one projection elsewhere which predicted they'd end up on the 5 line still gave them a 2 percent chance of missing the tournament).

 

The constant negative tone when discussing Wisconsin and the condescension toward anyone who dare question him really undercut his credibility, though, regarding the Badgers. Also, you can't in one sentence say Wisconsin's resume has no real historic precedence and then in the next sentence try to apply historic precedence to part of it to discredit their chances.

[superfly]

Milwaukee Journal reporting this morning that UW to offer a long term deal to Gard. Well deserved to say the least. Thank you Bo!

[fondybrewfan]

I wonder if he'll take the job

 

Ugly win yesterday but you could tell UW kind of put in cruise control in the 2nd half. Minnesota was all kinds of terrible.

 

Purdue is a touch match up for UW but they did hang with them earlier when they weren't playing that great. If they can beat Iowa and Maryland on the road then they have a shot at Purdue.

 

Really hoping UW can somehow find there way to the 6 line. They probably have to beat Purdue and win at least one game in BTT tourney to do that. Right now Lunardi has them as a 7 with Providence in the 1st round and Oklahoma in the 2nd. Fine with Providence but would rather not play OK again. I would rather get Xavier or Miami on the 2 line.

[MrTPlush]

ESPN still has Wisconsin as a #8...however they have Oklahoma conveniently as the #1 in that region.

 

That is a brutal match up for Wisconsin if they get it.

[tmwiese55]

Agreed, I'm hoping to get to the 6 line to avoid the top teams like MSU, Oklahoma, UNC, Kansas, UVA, etc. Will probably be tough to get above 7 without beating Purdue though, unless they make the B1G title game.

[homer]

ESPN still has Wisconsin as a #8...however they have Oklahoma conveniently as the #1 in that region.

 

That is a brutal match up for Wisconsin if they get it.

 

I think they matchup pretty well with Oklahoma defensively at least.

 

OK relies on a taking a ton of threes. UW is near elite at preventing teams from taking threes.

 

If Brown and Koenig can hit a few beyond the arc UW would do pretty well I imagine. Be a good game to bet on the underdog if the odds were right.

[fondybrewfan]

The problem is they would be playing OK in OK City so it would pretty much be another road game. Any game other than against OK in OK City, Kansas, or Michigan St in the 2nd round I would be happy.

[stoutdude04]

ESPN's new bracket has Wisconsin as the 6...and I would LOVE to see them in this quadrant. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[MrTPlush]

That is probably the easiest region to be in taking at face value. Though watch out for West Virginia...team is a total head ache to play. They mess with your tempo. Though my understanding is Wisconsin is a good 3 point shooting so it is a very winnable game.

[fondybrewfan]

West Virginia and Utah are t seed type teams that I really really like. WV is a really solid team. Of course they can be beat but I won't be surprised to see them advance quite a ways.

 

I love Utah more than anyone on the 3 seed line; unless they end up with Kansas or Michigan St in their draw I am putting them in the Final 4.

[sdcheezhd]

Also Diamond Stone is a punk and Grayson Allen is a punk and traveled.

 

 

Full disclosure: I am a duke fan... but how is Allen a punk? You just put him in the same sentence as a guy that smashed another player's head into the ground. Good grief...

 

Bump. Have we figured it out yet? Not only has Allen now done it twice but instead of apologizing as Stone did he lied about their feet getting tangled up or something. Instead doing the right thing with a suspension, like Turgeon did, K does nothing, except to suggest that people are upset because there's a target on Duke. I guess that's how he builds character.

[superfly]

ESPN's new bracket has Wisconsin as the 6...and I would LOVE to see them in this quadrant. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

That would be golden. THE U should be a tough out though with McClellan, Rodriguez, and co, but everyone else is very beatable to me.

[brewcrewdue80]

Haven't been following much Basketball as always. So in a year where 6losses still make you #4 ranked. A 10loss team WI doesn't crack the top 25 with 3 top 10 wins? Take I believe I seen 3worst pt losses and the other 7losses are by combined 21pts or less. Meaning 1possession games. Lose a 3pt game to #3Maryland at home after a loss before and 3rd game in 9days a loss to NW? Beating a team on tough stretch. Just surprised like hey let's rank Big10 teams in top 10 showing conference respect. But if WI beats them it's not a big win for WI, and WI is/has been a competitive team so we won't downplay the loss keep your ranking.

[owbc]

The tourney projections have to look at the big picture which is understandable. Wisconsin should be a 6 based on RPI or KenPom. But I agree that there's no way that Wisconsin isn't one of the top-25 teams in the country right now.

 

Meanwhile, the first half of the Purdue game was a shootout...way too many easy looks for Purdue.

[pacopete4]

Badgers need to at least win their first game of the big ten tourney.

[MrTPlush]

Haven't been following much Basketball as always. So in a year where 6losses still make you #4 ranked. A 10loss team WI doesn't crack the top 25 with 3 top 10 wins? Take I believe I seen 3worst pt losses and the other 7losses are by combined 21pts or less. Meaning 1possession games. Lose a 3pt game to #3Maryland at home after a loss before and 3rd game in 9days a loss to NW? Beating a team on tough stretch. Just surprised like hey let's rank Big10 teams in top 10 showing conference respect. But if WI beats them it's not a big win for WI, and WI is/has been a competitive team so we won't downplay the loss keep your ranking.

 

A loss is a loss. It just does not matter if it was by 3 points or 12...now if you get blown out 20+ that might make a difference. Wisconsin's other problem is some horrid losses they had earlier in the season. Start of the season losses are weighed just as much...right or wrong that is how it has always been.

 

Seems like they will be a toss up in the 6-8 range unless they can win two games in the Big 10 tourney, which would make them an easy #6 seed.