Open for business (part 2)

[trwi7]

Wait someone said something about trading Arcia? Even for the most negative and biggest Melvin hater that is the most completely ridiculous thing I have ever heard. That doesn't even make sense. Why are you even a fan at that point?

 

Well to be fair, remember there was no way Melvin was going to trade Escobar.

 

We both know that was a totally different situation.

 

Was it? Everyone was assuming we were going to trade Fielder just like everyone's assuming we're going to be trading Gomez and then whatever vets we can for salary relief. Instead we traded for Marcum (say trading Coulter and maybe some other prospects could get us a Marcum) now go and try to pick up an ace with Arcia, Reed and any other prospects the team trading an ace would value.

 

I obviously think it's unlikely but it's not so far out of the realm of possibilities that it's ridiculous to suggest it.

[MrTPlush]

 

We both know that was a totally different situation.

 

Was it? Everyone was assuming we were going to trade Fielder just like everyone's assuming we're going to be trading Gomez and then whatever vets we can for salary relief. Instead we traded for Marcum (say trading Coulter and maybe some other prospects could get us a Marcum) now go and try to pick up an ace with Arcia, Reed and any other prospects the team trading an ace would value.

 

I obviously think it's unlikely but it's not so far out of the realm of possibilities that it's ridiculous to suggest it.

 

I see what you are trying to say, but it is two entirely different directions. 2010 had a lot of talent and an OK record. Quite easily could compete with a couple moves. 2015 is a garbage aging/old team that is about to have quite a few holes and one of the 5 worst records in all of baseball.

 

Doug Melvin wouldn't trade a decent prospect last July while in first place. I doubt he will suddenly trade the farm after what will be a year and a half of bottom dweller baseball. It is so far out there I would be safe saying there is no chance.

[TigerUppercut]

There is no upside to trading Lucroy, who is signed through 2016 with an option for 2017 at club-friendly terms.

 

Yeah, okay, Tom.

 

I went absolutely ballistic when I saw this. Nice to know that TH is now officially a journalistic shill for Melvin. My goodness, what the hell are you talking about, there is no upside? What's the upside play, Tom? Let him play for crappy teams the next 2 years and watch him walk?

[RockCoCougars]

It's looking more and more like a five year rebuilding project lies ahead. It follows that anyone- including Lucroy should be on the table. Two problems..... First, very few guys on this team have much value, and the two that probably have the most (Gomez, Lucroy) have hurt their value by their play this year. Second, and most importantly, we have a lame duck GM. Not sure if he is the guy that we want making these deals (or if Attanasio will even let him at this point)

[MNBrew]

I think he's just making the simple comparison that they are both pitchers that were once very good, went through rough patches, Liriano turned it around. Hopefully Garza can too.

 

But yes, Garza is owed a lot more money and is older. Either way, we've got to hold onto Garza and hope for a rebound, don't trade him now when his value is at it's lowest point.

 

Yes but Liriano went through a rough patch with injuries. Now maybe Garza is hurt and not telling anyone but what we know about the two pitchers right now are completely different situations which is why it's ridiculous to compare them.

Liriano's injuries weren't the cause of his ineffectiveness. I live in MN, watched an awful lot of his crappy starts, and the fact is that he pretty much stunk for a couple years and couldn't get his act together. He also didn't pitch great for the ChiSox -- in fact, he was arguably worse. Yes, there was a bit of time missed due to injury, but that wasn't why he was a good Braden-Looper-in-MIL comp for two years.

 

I also see the comparison to Garza as a pretty valid one, with the obvious difference being their respective contract situations. Hopefully Garza turns it around similarly to how Liriano has. Heck, even half the degree of turnaround would be hugely productive compared to the way this year has gone.

[MNBrew]

We are comparing them because they are the same age, Liriano is pitching very well, and like Garza he went through a rough patch (but it lasted much longer). Some here have been advocating for just dumping Garza. Might not be you, but some are.

 

If by dumping you mean trading, yes certainly people are advocating that, as we could certainly use as much of the remainder of his contract off our books as we can get while we head toward a rebuilding process. Even if Garza rebounds, what good does it do for us competitively? Its not like we are going to be in the playoff hunt the next couple years anyway.

 

If by dumping you mean just releasing and eating the $30M left on his contract, no one is advocating for that. At least not that I've seen. Lohse maybe.

I don't have the time right now to go hunting for citations, but I've also read people's clamoring for Garza to be flat-out dumped. Someone in the Wang-got-DFA'd thread wanted every non-productive expensive veteran off the 40-man before Wang, including Garza.

 

There's been nothing out there saying the Brewers need to be dumping salary (outside of this board and probably other similar ones). The point of dumping guys that aren't looking favorable for the long-term plan (a.k.a. rebuilding) is to net as many and as good of young prospects in return as possible. The cost savings is simply a bonus by-product of making those moves. Saving big coin on the MLB payroll via a rebuild doesn't gain the Brewers anything immediate because no worthwhile big-buck FAs would want to join a team right after a dumpster-fire season like this one anyway.

[Invader3K]

I still don't get how Doug Melvin hasn't been fired. Even if the owner sincerely believes this horrible team and disastrous seasons aren't the GM's fault, don't you have to at least demote him simply to appease the fans at this point?

[monty57]

Wait someone said something about trading Arcia? Even for the most negative and biggest Melvin hater that is the most completely ridiculous thing I have ever heard. That doesn't even make sense. Why are you even a fan at that point?

 

It was (mostly) a joke based on my complete inability to understand why the Brewers are refusing to trade Segura. He's not that good (average defense with a sub-.700 OPS) but rumors hint that teams are willing to give up a decent haul to get him. Meanwhile, we have Sardinas who can step in now, and Arcia who should be ready in the next year or two.

 

Why the refusal to even listen to offers on Segura? To me, he's an obvious trade candidate. The way the Brewers are approaching this really screams to me that they aren't looking to rebuild, the ownership group is just worried about losing money as ticket sales dwindle as the year goes on. They're trying to dump useless salary, and will only look at trading anyone who is not going to be a free agent (other than Garza, who they realize was a mistake) if they can't shed salary any other way.

 

It doesn't take a huge leap from there to believe that they are going to try to put a "competitive" team out in 2016, which really won't be competitive, but they'll try to sell that to the fans to keep ticket sales up. In that scenario, what better way to "show they're trying to win" than by getting a big name by trading away a no-name (to the casual fan) prospect?

 

It shouldn't happen, I don't think it will happen, but it's not out of the realm of possibility when we're being led by a guy whose biggest concern is losing fan interest/ticket sales.

[brewmann04]

THE VETS that the brewers have made know the are available for trade at the most get them some salary relief even though Lohse and Aram will be coming off the books anyway. As for Luc and Gomez they will hang on to Luc and maybe look at other teams interest in the off season. Gomez first has to get healthy first before we can look to move him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Salary relief shouldn't be the primary focus of a rebuild. Getting good, cost controllable young talent back should be. By all means, get rid of Lohse, Garza, and Ramirez if you can, but Lohse and Ramirez are off the books at the end of the year anyways. Lucroy, Gomez, and Segura are the optimal trade chips, and if Melvin thinks the Brewers are going to be competitive within the window while those guys are still here, he's absolutely delusional.

[Boomer5]

The vets arent helping the rebuild plan.

 

ARam will bring back something OK just because he is a 3B and typically starts slow. The two starters are disasters. Gomez hasn't been healthy or elite in 2015. Braun is back to 2014 (627 OPS last 28 days). Luc and Segura are the only guys that will bring anything decent back based on position and control, but neither has lit it up.

 

I have a bad feeling we will see most of this team back in 2016.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers listen to offers on every single player...every team listens. Don't fool yourself there. It is all a negotiating technique. I know I have said it a million times on here, but you DON'T go around shopping a player you don't need to trade(Lucroy, Segura, Nelson, Peralta). You let teams come to you! Nothing worse than going around saying such and such is available etc. You can do nothing other than hurt yourself.

[Boomer5]

Brewers listen to offers on every single player...every team listens. Don't fool yourself there. It is all a negotiating technique. I know I have said it a million times on here, but you DON'T go around shopping a player you don't need to trade(Lucroy, Segura, Nelson, Peralta). You let teams come to you! Nothing worse than going around saying such and such is available etc. You can do nothing other than hurt yourself.

 

At this point, I doubt much of that matters anymore. GM's know what they want and what you have. The market is going to be made on the field and in the contract. The only thing that will improve a package is a bidding war and the criticality of a teams needs.

[TheCrew07]

I still don't get how Doug Melvin hasn't been fired. Even if the owner sincerely believes this horrible team and disastrous seasons aren't the GM's fault, don't you have to at least demote him simply to appease the fans at this point?

 

You mean like shipping out coaches and the like which has already been done?

 

On the roster construction side Mark Attanasio has been at least as big of a problem as Doug Melvin, Boras has been bypassing Melvin entirely to chirp into Attanasio's ear.

 

This team needs long term direction, some kind of actionable plan that they will stick to because the needed rebuild or reload while necessary now, is just a symptom of the problems which will keep resurfacing if they continue to run the franchise the way they have.

 

I'm not sure I even understand the dichotomy going on around here... if you were in favor of the Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke trades like the vast majority of fans were, how can you really have a problem with where the Brewers have ended up? There's no having it both ways, you can't just buy rentals and short term solutions with prospects year after year and have anything left in the farm system, eventually the team is going to old, expensive, and unproductive. It doesn't even really matter how good the prospects become, none of them could make MLB, it's the idea that roster isn't being gradually turned over that becomes the issue. It's completely predictable issue which happens across professional sports.

 

Furthermore there are people around here including Attanasio that don't really understand why signing Lohse and giving up a 1st round pick was such a colossal fail when it should be very simple: No one player was going to make the Brewers a contender and losing that 1st rounder hamstrung an entire draft because there wasn't the pool money available to get creative. Or why signing Garza for 4 years was ridiculous, or why giving K-Rod 2 years with an option was a horrible idea...

 

Yea it's only money, but every dollar wasted in Milwaukee is way more costly than it is in Chicago, Detroit, Boston, NY, LA, and so on... the Brewers will never be able to consistently compete if they aren't able to get more value on the dollar than the other teams, that's just the way the economics of baseball work.

 

I would rather the Brewers have a vision or plan, and work off that plan, than worrying about appeasing the fans and selling tickets. Put a legitimate contender on the field and people will come out to the park, keep doing what they've done trying to be around or a bit over .500 and eventually the fans will walk away regardless.

[Boomer5]

I was all for the Grienke and CC trades. Not so much Marcum because of how I dont believe he leveraged the asset that WAS Lawrie as well as he could have.

 

The trades signaled a sine wave approach, go for it when you get close, then reload. Or so I thought. The problem is they went from a go for it mentality with the inevitable fall right into a Herb Kohl style of keep it going with second tier expensive guys with the hopes that the farm system will fill in the gaps.

 

Ultimately, ANY plan fails when you draft and develop the way the Brewers had since Jack Z left.

[bill hAll Star]

I am generally a fan of a Rays, A's, or pick your smart small-market team strategy. I am begging for that right now.

 

That said, I was in favor of the Sabathia, Marcum, Greinke, etc. trades. I didn't like the Marcum trade, but I was OK with the direction. You CAN have it both ways.

 

I even understood the later wave of Aramis, Lohse (again, didn't like the move itself), etc. when you have Braun in his prime. Then the hammer dropped on all of that stuff. I think some of those teams could have made noise if healthy or if the bullpen didn't destroy them in 2012.

 

As it stands today, they need a wholesale explosion on the roster, and this is where I divert from Mark if he doesn't get with it. Again, I am a fan of building up the organization as the Rays and A's have, and would have preferred that all along but I understand the window they struck in.

 

The drafting has been pretty brutal in-between, which I understand is something that maybe could have used better funding (coaching/scouting) instead of lining Kyle Lohse's pockets. I also wished/assumed they'd have dealt their "go for it" pieces when value was higher. I'm going to be endlessly angry at Mark when they dump $80 million at Lucroy's feet after not trading him and watch him deteriorate into a below-average 1B.

 

I fully expected the CC, Greinke, Lohse, etc. deals to one day bite them. That said, they could have done a lot better of a job at mitigating this in the interim.

[Thurston Fluff]

This team needs long term direction, some kind of actionable plan that they will stick to because the needed rebuild or reload while necessary now, is just a symptom of the problems which will keep resurfacing if they continue to run the franchise the way they have.

 

Not to pick on you for this statement because I have seen it in one form or another lot. The claim that the team doesn't have a long term plan or direction is just plain old wrong. The plan was outlined years ago. In fact it was outlined by Dean Taylor and Doug and Mark continued on with it. It was to build a franchise that would be competitive year in and year out. When you look at it through that lens the off season moves of the past few years actually make sense. They went out and got players they hoped would keep the team competitive. While they may have failed to do that it does not mean the team had no direction or actionable plan. It means they failed to pull it off. It isn't just semantics either. Failing to see the problem makes it harder to find the solution. So the real issue to me isn't about getting a long term plan. It is deciding if the one they've had for about 15 years now is possible in Milwaukee and adjusting accordingly once they determine that.

[gregmag]

TF, that's an excellent post. I think you're exactly right. I think it's also fair to ask (as part of the broader inquiry you propose) whether the sort of plan the Brewers put into action was doomed to fail or was just badly executed. That's the question that I feel right now I'm too close to the situation, as a fan, to get a good handle on.

 

I would also add that, back when the team cratered the last time, we definitely had a "build from within" strategy. I wonder if the strategy was always "build up from within, then sustain whatever plateau we get to through trades and FA" or if one plan gave way to the other.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I was all for the Grienke and CC trades. Not so much Marcum because of how I dont believe he leveraged the asset that WAS Lawrie as well as he could have.

 

The trades signaled a sine wave approach, go for it when you get close, then reload. Or so I thought. The problem is they went from a go for it mentality with the inevitable fall right into a Herb Kohl style of keep it going with second tier expensive guys with the hopes that the farm system will fill in the gaps.

 

Ultimately, ANY plan fails when you draft and develop the way the Brewers had since Jack Z left.

 

This.

 

Making trades to put your club over the top does not have to mean years of futility to follow. The Brewers have been poorly managed SINCE the CC/Greinke/Marcum trades, not as a result of them. They have run valuable pieces into the ground until any value they once had is decreased or gone, including signing marginal free agents to big deals and holding on to them until those deals made them untradeable.

 

When they traded Greinke away in 2012, it was clear the team was no longer an elite club like they were in 2011 and they were downtrending. That was the time to decide to restock, and if they had we may have had a year or two of mediocrity and been on the upswing by now. Instead we've slapped lipstick on a pig for years and the franchise is now an utter mess, a terrible product on the field and a poor farm system behind it.

 

But, like the above poster said, even the best strategies are probably for naught if you can't draft and develop players.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sure, the "compete every year" strategy can work. Just ask the Cardinals and Giants among others. Problem is, of course, the smaller the team salary the more difficult it is to pull off. Margin for error is much smaller. You better have a great farm system year in, year out. You need to hit on virtually every FA move. Ditto on trades.

 

I have no problem with this strategy when they had the core of Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, eventually Lucroy. But it should have been clear after that last run with Fielder that it was time to rebuild, not keep trying to plug in holes. When you do it on your own terms, you're more likely to get better value back...as opposed to now when they're forced to sell and everyone knows it.

[Roderick]

Ultimately, ANY plan fails when you draft and develop the way the Brewers had since Jack Z left.

 

This right there trumps all best laid plans. When you get nothing from Frederickson, Arnett, K.Davis, Heckathorn, Covey/Bradley (Jungmann?). That is just too many misses in that time span to compete unless Melvin was batting close to 1.000 on signings, trades, other player moves - and obviously no one does that.

[reillymcshane]

I think people are pretty accurate when saying all the planning doesn't work when you draft poorly.

 

To me the issue is a lack of planning for such a scenario. It seems that when most of the planning went out the window, we sort of just improvised over the past few years.

 

Management has to have known this day would come. No one seems to have really had the stones to say so - or really do much about it.

[Boomer5]

Once they realized Arnett and Covey werent going to become a Roy Halliday they went to plan Z and prayed Garza and Lohse would.

 

They felt they had one year left in 2015 and they kept it together. I guess I can't fault them for it, but now that the plan failed miserably its time to break it down as best as they can. None of the assets are playing along other than KRod to make this rebuild plan work, but they need to move on from these contracts and start fresh.

 

Or to put it another way, our Number 1 asset is a 1.4 WAR player, KRod. Our number two is Lind and Braun at 1.2 each. If that is what they plan on bringing back in 2016, then they might was well blow it up, because the attendance will be the same either way.

[Invader3K]

 

You mean like shipping out coaches and the like which has already been done?

 

On the roster construction side Mark Attanasio has been at least as big of a problem as Doug Melvin, Boras has been bypassing Melvin entirely to chirp into Attanasio's ear.

 

This team needs long term direction, some kind of actionable plan that they will stick to because the needed rebuild or reload while necessary now, is just a symptom of the problems which will keep resurfacing if they continue to run the franchise the way they have.

 

I'm not sure I even understand the dichotomy going on around here... if you were in favor of the Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke trades like the vast majority of fans were, how can you really have a problem with where the Brewers have ended up? There's no having it both ways, you can't just buy rentals and short term solutions with prospects year after year and have anything left in the farm system, eventually the team is going to old, expensive, and unproductive. It doesn't even really matter how good the prospects become, none of them could make MLB, it's the idea that roster isn't being gradually turned over that becomes the issue. It's completely predictable issue which happens across professional sports.

 

While I was in favor of those trades at the time (Sabathia, Greinke, Marcum), I've been saying for the last two off-seasons that it was time to trade off some players and rebuild the farm system. I was also vocally against the Lohse signing, mainly due to giving up the draft pick. What happened in 2008 and 2011 didn't need to mean things would be allowed to get this bad, both at the MLB level and with the farm system. We could already be on the cusp of another run of contention, if Melvin had been more proactive.

 

If the owner is being meddlesome and turning into a baseball version of Herb Kohl, then I guess that's another problem entirely. It's probably not one that's really solvable either.

[PeaveyFury]

Brewers listen to offers on every single player...every team listens.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure where the 'the Brewers won't listen to offers on Segura' stuff is coming from. Even if it's been mentioned in an article I missed, the Brewers' front office has a long history of saying that they're 'not interested in moving so-and-so' followed by a trade of that player less than a week later.

 

The Lucroy comment in the article yesterday seemed to me to be Tom writing his opinion, but I certainly could be wrong.