Open for business (part 2)

[paul253]

I don't expect to see much optimism, but the complaining on how we aren't going to do this or that because Melvin is dumb or because we never do anything etc. etc. etc. seems endless.

 

Melvin has a long track record of hanging on to players too long. Not trading them when their value is at its peak and instead believing that their value will stay that high until the final year of their contract. That's what is going to happen with Lucroy and maybe even Gomez. Couple that with Mark A.'s belief that short term attendance is more important than long term success and that is where the pessimism comes from. You can be as optimistic as you want but believing Doug and Mark are going all of sudden start doing things they've never done before seems more foolish than optimistic.

 

If Melvin had made even one good "for the future" trade perhaps I'd have a sliver of hope. But even the Greinke trade, perhaps the only trade that even really fits that category, hasn't seemed to work out all that well as both Hellweg and Pena have seemed to reach their ceilings and Segura appears to be an average ML shortstop at best.

[3and2Fastball]

I doubt Mark A will change his MO until there is a significant drop in attendance. Which may happen this year in July/August when Packers preseason gets in full swing, and may happen even more in April of 2016 if significant changes aren't made

[FVBrewerFan]

I think fans will support the team if they understand what the Brewers are trying to do. To a lessor extent fans are supporting the Bucks rebuild, most people "get it." Actually, even more true for "casual fans." They want to come out and tailgate, have fun, etc. and don't really care what the record is.

 

Yes, attendance will suffer Mid Aug-end of season the next few years. Then again, payroll should be way down as well so it won't hurt them to have 2.2- 2.4 MM or so for 2-3 years. They just really need to build a viable rotation from within (through the help of trades) and the rest will fall into place.

[bill hAll Star]

My pessimism isn't even that Attanasio is dead-set on being competitive next year. He may think he can "rebuild" and compete in 2017 or 2018. The problem is, I feel as though he's willing to let Luc and Braun's value (heck, maybe even Gomez this year) sit on the shelf and devalue while he does that. "Yeah, I'll restock and still have the faces of my franchise in 2018!"

 

I am worried they won't sell at the highest point with any of these guys and we'll be left with the 32 year-old version of Yadier Molina-level-value of Lucroy with $70 million left on his contract in 2018 and Braun continuing to depreciate.

 

I don't think a 2018 target is unreasonable. We've had a significant talent infusion to the system from the last couple of drafts + international signings, and the Gallardo trade. I'm not expecting much other than salary relief/fringe guys for our in-season trades, but our offseason trades will likely bring talent as well, so that will likely put us ahead of the 5-year rebuilds that the Astros and Cubs have gone through.

 

2016 is a lost cause and likely 2017, but I could see a Bucks-like marked improvement in 2017/18 with a shot at the playoffs thereafter.

 

But your second point is completely fair- they need to identify who is likely to still be an actual contributor in that 2018-ish window and should be willing to trade anyone that won't be. I'm fine if they don't do it now or in July, but I'd certainly hope that we see the Gomez/Segura combo moved between now and next Spring.

 

Absolutely 2018 is a great date. I just think that Mark is going to try to hit 2018 while keeping a hold on Luc, Braun, and maybe whatever he gets for Gomez when he deals him too late (next year or even keeps him).

[FVBrewerFan]

2018 is possible. Again, it all depends on how long it will take to build a viable rotation. It's relatively easy, especially with the arms we have in the system already, to build an average or even great bullpen. Very realistic to build a line-up by 2018, they can do that mostly in-house as well.

 

But I don't think we have any idea if a competitive rotation can be built by 2018. Peralta has taken a step back, and Nelson hasn't taken a step forward yet. With no guarantee, by the way, Nelson will ever come around. Then you still have 3 more spots to fill, and they can't all be Fiers types. You basically need 3 guys who are a 2014 Peralta or better to be a legit rotation, and that is light years away.

[paul253]

Next year's draft is going to be huge. We HAVE TO get a #1 potential arm next year. And that means doing what you need to to guarantee a top 5 pick. If we can do that, as well as maximize the trade value of Gomez, Lucroy and Segura, then 2018 or 2019 could be the year things start to get real good. The potential to turn this around relatively soon is there.....but only if we don't miss out on the opportunities like we have all too often in the past by hanging onto guys too long.

[brewmann04]

our rotation is full of guys who are #4 or #5 Starters at the best maybe one can be a #3. That is a hugh Issue here.

they are going to have to bulid this team by trades of Guys like Gomez,Segura,and possible Braun and Luc.

We do look like we have some players down in Bilioxi and possible solid past two drafts.

[Invader3K]

our rotation is full of guys who are #4 or #5 Starters at the best maybe one can be a #3. That is a hugh Issue here.

they are going to have to bulid this team by trades of Guys like Gomez,Segura,and possible Braun and Luc.

We do look like we have some players down in Bilioxi and possible solid past two drafts.

 

http://img2.timeinc.net/people/i/2011/news/110725/hugh-grant-240.jpg

[Hammer]

Well played Invader. It would be nice to start a Transaction Rumor/Proposal for each player that is potentially on the block. Not naming a team in the title but trying to construct potential deals for teams that are potentially in the market for said player instead of having a bunch of x plus x to x for x pieces and getting replies of "that's not enough" and "I wouldn't do that deal because I don't like their system" replies.

Does anyone have time for that? Or, mods, is that a viable option?

[markedman5]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13102518/cole-hamels-aroldis-chapman-jeff-samardzija-10-players-watch-mlb-trade-deadline-approaches

[trwi7]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13102518/cole-hamels-aroldis-chapman-jeff-samardzija-10-players-watch-mlb-trade-deadline-approaches

 

Not surprising at all. The guys that we're willing to sell other teams don't want and the pieces other teams actually do want aren't available.

[brewmann04]

It seems like everyone knows that if we don't move Lucic or Gomez we get nothing back for anyone else. They almost made it a joke that no one would want anyone else.

[adambr2]

It's almost comical to even gauge interest on guys like Garza, Lohse, Ramirez and Broxton. Why in the world would a team want to give up something and help pay a huge salary to acquire a player when they could probably get the same production from a random AAA call up?

[danzig6767]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13102518/cole-hamels-aroldis-chapman-jeff-samardzija-10-players-watch-mlb-trade-deadline-approaches

 

Not surprising at all. The guys that we're willing to sell other teams don't want and the pieces other teams actually do want aren't available.

Who knows if Attanasio would be willing to trade Gomez, but it sure would be nice to see him get healthy and playing well so that if Attanasio actually would be willing to trade an asset of real value, that Carlos is healthy and productive enough to draw serious interest.

 

That would just be our luck. Attanasio finally becomes willing to trade a guy like Gomez, but then Carlos struggles with injuries up to the deadline.

 

It also would be nice to see Lucroy get really hot on the slim chance Attanasio would be willing to trade Gomez and/or Luc.

[brewmann04]

I agree with Gomez he be unhealthy through the trade dealine and we will not move him.

It kinda reminds me the year we were bad and were getting ready to trade Ben Macdonald and he got hurt.

[danzig6767]

2018 is possible. Again, it all depends on how long it will take to build a viable rotation. It's relatively easy, especially with the arms we have in the system already, to build an average or even great bullpen. Very realistic to build a line-up by 2018, they can do that mostly in-house as well.

 

But I don't think we have any idea if a competitive rotation can be built by 2018. Peralta has taken a step back, and Nelson hasn't taken a step forward yet. With no guarantee, by the way, Nelson will ever come around. Then you still have 3 more spots to fill, and they can't all be Fiers types. You basically need 3 guys who are a 2014 Peralta or better to be a legit rotation, and that is light years away.

As much as it would be very refreshing to finally put together a high quality rotation mostly anchored by draft picks, there can be a variety of ways to put together a high quality staff.

 

Look at the Pirates as an example and the great pitching by them so far. For as much credit as they've gotten for building through the draft, the only guy in their rotation who was drafted by the team is Cole and he wasn't exactly a guy unearthed by savvy scouting other teams missed on. Cole was picked first overall. A.J Burnett and his 1.89 ERA is 38 years old and was signed off the scrap heap after a bad year for the Phillies. Liriano is another free agent signing. Charlie Morton and his 1.62 ERA is a 32 year old sinkerball pitcher with solid but nothing special stats over the previous five years. Locke was picked up in a trade, but has been mediocre since. Worley is a soft tossing junk ball pitcher.

 

We'll see if that Pirates staff can keep pitching well over the rest of the season, but it goes to show that in baseball sometimes a team need a sprinkling in of luck to go along with skill when putting together a team. Luck just that multiple guys simply out-perform your realistic expectations before a season starts and that plays a role in being a high 80's to 90 plus win team.

 

Hopefully the Brewers clean house in the front office, Attanasio stops being part owner/part GM, and maybe in say two years from now, a mix of young guys performing well, a few savvy pickups via trades and/or free agency, and some luck mixed in allows the Brewers to legitimately compete again for a playoff berth sooner than many fans might expect.

[TheCrew07]

One note on the Pirates... it's not so much their pitching staff now, it's what they pitching staff will be when they have Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, and Kingham in the rotation... all homegrown for what it's worth. We're probably a year or 2 away on that depending on how Kingham's TJ recovery goes. Taillon just went 5 innings in extended spring training and will be ready to pick-up back in full season ball here shortly.

 

If the Brewers aren't going to win the Central, and it looks like we're cycling down towards our valley then I'd like the Pirates to win it. I'm actually fond of the Pirates organization and have been for about 4-5 years now, it happened by accident and now I find myself wanting them to do well.

[danzig6767]

One note on the Pirates... it's not so much their pitching staff now, it's what they pitching staff will be when they have Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, and Kingham in the rotation... all homegrown for what it's worth. We're probably a year or 2 away on that depending on how Kingham's TJ recovery goes. Taillon just went 5 innings in extended spring training and will be ready to pick-up back in full season ball here shortly.

 

If the Brewers aren't going to win the Central, and it looks like we're cycling down towards our valley then I'd like the Pirates to win it. I'm actually fond of the Pirates organization and have been for about 4-5 years now, it happened by accident and now I find myself wanting them to do well.

I know that the Pirates have good farm system and especially some highly ranked pitchers, i was just talking about their rotation this year and the randomness which can happen in baseball for a number of teams in each given year. A baseball season for many teams is often both predictable and unpredictable, with luck/randomness playing varying degrees of influence. So that's a factor why some teams end up doing quite a bit better than most expected and some are quite a bit worse. It's more over multiple seasons where good or bad fortune gets washed away and overall good decision making rises up.

 

That's why when i responded to that guy's post about when the Brewers could be good enough to compete for a playoff berth, i don't necessarily think it has to be some long drawn out process if a quality new front office is hired and Attanasio allows that front office to do their jobs without the owner playing a quasi-GM role. Have a plan, make more smart decisions than bad ones, and draft well, things can sometimes change for the better quicker than expected in baseball. Luck helps also on the injury front and having say a couple of lowish profile pickups exceed expectations by quite more than you could have hoped for.

[trwi7]

A note on Morton and Locke. They were two of the pieces (along with Gorkys Hernandez) picked up in the Nate McLouth trade with the Braves. McLouth posted an .810 OPS in 2007, .853 in 2008 and .819 in 2009 with the Pirates before he was traded. He did fairly well for the Braves in 2009 and then finished with a .620 OPS in 2010 and .677 in 2011.

 

So the Pirates got all the value they could out of McLouth and then traded him at his peak value and picked up solid assets in return that are still helping the team today.

 

I'm with TheCrew in that I'm envious of what Huntington has done with the Pirates and that I hope they do well. They certainly look like they're on their way to a third straight playoff appearance.

[3and2Fastball]

With Gomez banged up again it might be tough to move him until he's fully healthy, I sure hope Mark A is willing to when that time comes

 

Gomez' playing style and age will lead to additional hip, hamstring, back injuries as the years go by. The Brewers would be wise to trade him sooner rather than later

[monty57]

i was just talking about their rotation this year and the randomness which can happen in baseball for a number of teams in each given year. A baseball season for many teams is often both predictable and unpredictable, with luck/randomness playing varying degrees of influence. So that's a factor why some teams end up doing quite a bit better than most expected and some are quite a bit worse.

 

That's what made Attanasio's "baseball's easy, you just put the names into a spreadsheet and they perform" comment so comical. Well, comical if he was the owner of a different team. Worrisome if he happens to own your favorite team.

[Pugger]

One note on the Pirates... it's not so much their pitching staff now, it's what they pitching staff will be when they have Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, and Kingham in the rotation... all homegrown for what it's worth. We're probably a year or 2 away on that depending on how Kingham's TJ recovery goes. Taillon just went 5 innings in extended spring training and will be ready to pick-up back in full season ball here shortly.

 

If the Brewers aren't going to win the Central, and it looks like we're cycling down towards our valley then I'd like the Pirates to win it. I'm actually fond of the Pirates organization and have been for about 4-5 years now, it happened by accident and now I find myself wanting them to do well.

 

Yes, anybody but the Cubs or Cards.

[reillymcshane]

With Gomez banged up again it might be tough to move him until he's fully healthy, I sure hope Mark A is willing to when that time comes

 

Gomez' playing style and age will lead to additional hip, hamstring, back injuries as the years go by. The Brewers would be wise to trade him sooner rather than later

I worry suitors for Gomez will be scared off by his recent injuries, plus a decline in play. Carlos actually has a negative defensive value according to Fangraphs. Baseball Reference has just above average. I realize that defensive numbers can vary greatly, so it doesn't concern me that much, but I think it's clear he's not the same player defensively as he was two years ago. His bat has faltered a bit this year - .752 OPS - you can probably attribute some of that to his nagging injuries. His walks really worry me, however. He's got a 3.6% walk rate - half of last year.

 

You wrap it all up and I'm concerned that clubs won't see him as a top tier guy when it comes to trading him (which I think we should be looking to do). If possible, I want to land one or two high upside players for him. I don't want to settle for second tier prospects.

 

The good thing about Carlos is that if we don't find a taker at the deadline, we can always wait until after the season. You can hope he has a great 2nd half, increases his value, and then make him available at that time. Of course, if he plays poorly you are kind of screwed, but I think Gomez just needs to get healthy to start producing more.

[LouisEly]

Speaking of the Pirates, who thought Francisco Liriano was washed up after his 2011 and 2012 seasons? Apparently everyone, as the Pirates signed him for $1M. That's why you don't give up on Garza after 1/3rd of a bad season.

[Roderick]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13102518/cole-hamels-aroldis-chapman-jeff-samardzija-10-players-watch-mlb-trade-deadline-approaches

 

If in the end the Brewers don't give ARam away (if they have to by paying whatever of his salary) then someone needs to be slapped around.

 

I don't care if they think ARam will OPS .900 the rest of the season, actually that is the opposite of what I would want (need to keep draft position).

 

Get the guy they just picked up and get him in the roster for July, August, September. If he swims, maybe he gets 2016, if he sinks you know you need to go another direction. That is the great thing about being out of the playoff race, find out what you have from the young guys that are of an age you don't care about starting their arby clock.