Open for business (part 2)

[bill hAll Star]

I'm not signing Zimmerman for any large amount of money.

 

Not a high K guy or major power guy (which could be good long-term) but he already has had plenty of arm issues. Could be DOA when he signs his next contract. Either that or he's going to be just "pretty good" in the middle of a high salary team's rotation.

 

And yeah, that 2017 lineup tells you why Lucroy and Braun should be traded. Those guys would be the best bats in the lineup by a country mile unless Arcia really blows up...because by then Braun will be in the twilight of his career and Lucroy will have 1 year left on his contract.

[LouisEly]

I struggle with Lohse. You look at his stats and see bad. Watching the game last night, I only saw one squared-up ball hit off of him - the HR to Cain. A HBP, three singles, and a sac fly in the first; IIRC, the first run happened because Gomez was going toward 2B because Escobar was running on the pitch, but if he had been in his original position it would have been a ground out at the minimum, possible double play. In the 5th it was a walk and then the HR. Two extra base hits in five innings, and one of them was stranded. The Brewers had two extra base hits in the 9th inning alone, and Lind's line out in the 9th was hit harder than anything in the Royal's first inning. Is that bad, or is that dumb luck?

 

The numbers are the numbers, and maybe he isn't good enough to miss bats anymore. I wonder if it is just bad luck, but the sample is getting bigger. I'd be pessimistic if he were giving up lots of extra base hits, but he's not.

 

Bottom line, still a month-and-a-half to turn it around, possibly longer as he may pass through waivers in August.

[jerichoholicninja]

I struggle with Lohse. You look at his stats and see bad. Watching the game last night, I only saw one squared-up ball hit off of him - the HR to Cain. A HBP, three singles, and a sac fly in the first; IIRC, the first run happened because Gomez was going toward 2B because Escobar was running on the pitch, but if he had been in his original position it would have been a ground out at the minimum, possible double play. In the 5th it was a walk and then the HR. Two extra base hits in five innings, and one of them was stranded. The Brewers had two extra base hits in the 9th inning alone, and Lind's line out in the 9th was hit harder than anything in the Royal's first inning. Is that bad, or is that dumb luck?

 

The numbers are the numbers, and maybe he isn't good enough to miss bats anymore. I wonder if it is just bad luck, but the sample is getting bigger. I'd be pessimistic if he were giving up lots of extra base hits, but he's not.

 

Bottom line, still a month-and-a-half to turn it around, possibly longer as he may pass through waivers in August.

 

Lohse's bb/9 and k/9 are pretty much all exactly the same this season as they are since he started playing for the Cardinals. k/9 is actually up and his fastball velocity is right in line with what it has been the last 5 years. His 2015 LD% is 2 points higher than his career average but not much higher than other times in his career. His HR/FB is off the charts though. I'm not going to deny that his skills are diminishing but there's certainly a big element of bad luck for him this season

[monty57]

And yeah, that 2017 lineup tells you why Lucroy and Braun should be traded. Those guys would be the best bats in the lineup by a country mile unless Arcia really blows up

 

Throw in that the other teams in the division (notably the Cubs) will likely be better as their prospects develop into their prime, and that lineup would probably have us at the bottom of the division.

 

That's only 3 teams to me that are selling and 27teams that are contemplating buying. Garza is going to be a trade target under that circumstance for sure. Lind ought to be a decent trade target as he's going to be a DH thought as well.

I expect better returns for Parra and Lind than what Milw gave up for them since that reason. KRod too will be a trade idea for many teams.

 

Segura is 11th currently for all MLB SS in OPS with 145ABs or more. That's a lot of franchises that stand to improve at that position, for some years to come.

 

Those are the 4 I expect decent trades coming up soon before the deadline. Gomez or Lucroy would be Blockbuster deals that I feel are more likely in the offseason. Braun would be that way as well, and I just don't feel he's a trade chip to let go for the franchise.

 

Maybe I'm just being impatient, but I really think those who are hoping for some big moves (myself included) are going to be disappointed. I think the Brewers are going to try to shed salary, and if they can get anyone to take Lohse, Garza, Ramirez or Broxton off their hands for nothing they will pretty much stand pat from there. Parra will also be traded as he will be a free agent, and he'll be the only guy bringing back a prospect, but it won't be a good one.

 

I don't believe Segura, Braun, Lind, K-Rod or Lucroy are going anywhere, and the only way Gomez gets traded is if they can't shed salary in one of the aforementioned salary dump trades. They'll extend Lucroy, who won't be very good as he gets into his 30's, and they'll trade Gomez at next year's trade deadline, when his value will be significantly less, as the receiving team will only get half a year with no chance at making a QO. I also wouldn't doubt that Arcia will get traded at some point as he'll be stuck in AAA with Segura and Sardinas in Milwaukee. I'm sure he could net two years of a proven vet who will help the team climb above .500 for a season.

 

I had hopes that this horrid start would finally get Attanasio/Melvin to change tack, but the constant murmur that Lucroy is completely off the table and Segura is not likely to be made available have me believing that this team's management is beyond hope. Hopefully it's all a "smokescreen," but I doubt it.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't believe Segura, Braun, Lind, K-Rod or Lucroy are going anywhere, and the only way Gomez gets traded is if they can't shed salary in one of the aforementioned salary dump trades.

 

I agree Mark A won't let go of Braun, Lucroy, or Segura. I just can't imagine him accepting a 5 year rebuild, even though that's what's going to happen if he wants it to or not.

 

But I do think they will try to trade Lind, KRod. Both are signed through next year, and no reason to want to re-sign them. So I think Melvin can convince Mark A. they need to trade them. Same with Gomez, I think they see what they can get for him.

[bill hAll Star]

Sorry to say it, but it's going to be either a 3 year rebuild with an incredibly low ceiling where they need to rebuild again -- or it's going to be a 3-year rebuild with just trading Braun or LuCroy with a chance for some promise.

 

LuCroy or Braun 3 years from - I can almost guarantee that one of them at least is to be an albatross contract or completely gone via FA (Luc).

 

Mark can either choose to appease the fans who come out to tailgate and enjoy seeing Luc in the lineup or he can try to rebuild his farm system.

[TheCrew07]

I'll always maintain it didn't have to get this point, that's the disappointing part, just making 2 different moves along the way could have made all the difference... I'd really like ownership/GM that is willing to cycle a roster and keeping turning over the older players; name players, "Brewer for Life", those things are relics of the past. In way it sucks because that's the model in which most of us grew up with... Yount... how many of us were livid about Molitor walking? We loved to be attached to the players, they were "our" guys.

 

However the game is completely different now and the dead money on the back end of those deals doesn't work well in the small market model. Maybe the economics of the game will change, but how many players in any sport are "team X for life?", it's pretty rare these days. I was fine moving on from Favre and Driver in football, I was fine moving on from Fielder and Gallardo, I'll be fine moving on Braun. Players in their 30s should not be the "core" of your team, professional sports is a young man's game, when players reach that age it's time to move on.

[bill hAll Star]

I feel like a new era of futility is going to be opened up if they drop the dumptruck of money for Lucroy with not much else coming up the pike in the next few years.

[yfinn6]

I feel like a new era of futility is going to be opened up if they drop the dumptruck of money for Lucroy with not much else coming up the pike in the next few years.

 

This is the way I see it.

 

Ownership won't allow the team to sink too far down in the loss column, they're going to keep trying to plug holes and it's going to be a "if everything goes right, we can get into the playoffs" type situation.

 

I have zero faith.

[MrTPlush]

What a sad pessimistic bunch you people are.

[yfinn6]

What a sad pessimistic bunch you people are.

 

And the WINNER for taking everything out of context (yet again) goes to.. YOU! Or were you clearly just kidding again?

 

http://community.ebay.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/25611iEAD559F73DCBA1E9?v=mpbl-1

[adambr2]

What a sad pessimistic bunch you people are.

 

We are the second worst team in baseball and most likely in line for a top 5 pick next year.

 

How much optimism do you expect to see?

[MrTPlush]

What a sad pessimistic bunch you people are.

 

We are the second worst team in baseball and most likely in line for a top 5 pick next year.

 

How much optimism do you expect to see?

 

I don't expect to see much optimism, but the complaining on how we aren't going to do this or that because Melvin is dumb or because we never do anything etc. etc. etc. seems endless.

 

I mean dang does anyone just want to wait and see? Melvin has hinted at some type of rebuild which leads me to believe things will be different(we have already seen that in the Perez pickup). I think there is optimism so far in what the front office plans to do.

 

This thread is starting to look like everyone last deadline. No faith and everyone was sure Melvin would dump half the farm for Price etc. Well look at that...it didn't happen. So maybe Melvin will shock all the zero hope guys again?

[adambr2]

I agree that mid-June is way too early to be concerned about moves not being made. It's rare for any major moves to be made earlier than the last week or two before the deadline.

[monty57]

I agree that mid-June is way too early to be concerned about moves not being made. It's rare for any major moves to be made earlier than the last week or two before the deadline.

 

With me, it's not that no moves have been made, it's that while the Brewers seem to have been "shopping" dregs like Ramirez, Lohse and Garza, they have said Lucroy is unavailable and that they are not likely to move Segura.

 

It looks to me like they are just trying to cut salary, and are looking at fielding a "competitive" team next year. Of course, the team will not be competitive, and all we will have done is wasted the opportunity to restock the system by trading some guys who right now have tremendous trade value. I don't know in a year or two if we will have anyone with the trade value Gomez and Lucroy now possess, so this opportunity may not present itself in the future.

 

This team seems to be run in large part in fear of a drop in ticket sales, which doesn't seem to be the best way to build a winning franchise. I don't want to watch the current Brewers become the 1970's Cubs, putting a few "name players" on the field to keep fans interested enough to buy tickets so the team remains profitable without any realistic chance of winning anything now or in the future.

[logan82]

Trades may work better in the offseason. That way teams can make other moves to replace players they would trade to us. Maybe we can get better players.

[FVBrewerFan]

The pessimism comes from the fear that Mark A. does not want a full rebuild. And it's not like we're getting that feeling out of nowhere. It has been his M.O. since he bought the team, and Melvin and others have made comments recently that sound more like shuffling the chairs on the Titanic than rebuilding.

 

At some point they need to step back and take an objective look at what they're rebuilding around. Above all else, you need a rotation. Peralta and especially Nelson do not look ready to be top of the rotation starters. And those two guys are the BEST shot to do so. Who else? Fiers, Jungmann, Thornburg, Cravy.... the guys in AA. You would need incredibly strong Brewers goggles on to build a contending rotation out of that.

 

I'll speak for myself, that's why I'm pessimistic. They need to tear it down and rebuild, and I just don't believe they'll do that.

[brewmann04]

I also can see where Mark coming from but how long are the fans will continue to buy tickets to this product. The Crew has very Loyal fans and they will continue to support a team even if rebuilding.

[MrTPlush]

I can see some worry with Attanasio...but zero hope and no faith...yikes that seems a bit extreme with no chance to sell yet(this year). Rememeber this is really the first flop with little future outlook. This isn't a typical year since Attanasio took over. Who knows how he reacts.

 

Regarding Lucroy and Segura not being available here is some trade talk 101: You do not try and shop high value players you don't need to sell yet. It is not surprising at all they have made the comments they have. It is just usual business practice for a team.

[bill hAll Star]

My pessimism isn't even that Attanasio is dead-set on being competitive next year. He may think he can "rebuild" and compete in 2017 or 2018. The problem is, I feel as though he's willing to let Luc and Braun's value (heck, maybe even Gomez this year) sit on the shelf and devalue while he does that. "Yeah, I'll restock and still have the faces of my franchise in 2018!"

 

I am worried they won't sell at the highest point with any of these guys and we'll be left with the 32 year-old version of Yadier Molina-level-value of Lucroy with $70 million left on his contract in 2018 and Braun continuing to depreciate.

[MrTPlush]

I also can see where Mark coming from but how long are the fans will continue to buy tickets to this product. The Crew has very Loyal fans and they will continue to support a team even if rebuilding.

 

Fans have already stopped supporting this team. Last I heard they are on pace for 2.6mil attendance. That should continue to drop in August and September...so maybe 2.3 or 2.4 come out to the park...? Sounds like people have already bailed.

[brewmann04]

Well if that the case it will force Mark hand on the rebuild of this team.

[adambr2]

2.3 or 2.4M is still pretty solid for a small market. Not many teams would draw 2.3M or 2.4M for the second worst team in baseball.

 

Last year they were 8th in attendance, right now they're 11th, so I think if they can finish somewhere around the middle assuming their performance comtinues, they should be happy with that.

[PeaveyFury]

My pessimism isn't even that Attanasio is dead-set on being competitive next year. He may think he can "rebuild" and compete in 2017 or 2018. The problem is, I feel as though he's willing to let Luc and Braun's value (heck, maybe even Gomez this year) sit on the shelf and devalue while he does that. "Yeah, I'll restock and still have the faces of my franchise in 2018!"

 

I am worried they won't sell at the highest point with any of these guys and we'll be left with the 32 year-old version of Yadier Molina-level-value of Lucroy with $70 million left on his contract in 2018 and Braun continuing to depreciate.

 

I don't think a 2018 target is unreasonable. We've had a significant talent infusion to the system from the last couple of drafts + international signings, and the Gallardo trade. I'm not expecting much other than salary relief/fringe guys for our in-season trades, but our offseason trades will likely bring talent as well, so that will likely put us ahead of the 5-year rebuilds that the Astros and Cubs have gone through.

 

2016 is a lost cause and likely 2017, but I could see a Bucks-like marked improvement in 2017/18 with a shot at the playoffs thereafter.

 

But your second point is completely fair- they need to identify who is likely to still be an actual contributor in that 2018-ish window and should be willing to trade anyone that won't be. I'm fine if they don't do it now or in July, but I'd certainly hope that we see the Gomez/Segura combo moved between now and next Spring.

[monty57]

Rememeber this is really the first flop with little future outlook.

 

I'd say that was 2012.

 

2.3 or 2.4M is still pretty solid for a small market. Not many teams would draw 2.3M or 2.4M for the second worst team in baseball.

 

I've written on this several times since this offseason, so I won't "show the math" here. I doubt that even during a rebuild we would go below 2M as long as the team did a good job explaining their plan to the fans. Wisconsin fans are extremely loyal and have stayed loyal through some bad Packer/Badger teams. The only time I can remember them turning on a franchise is when they felt the Seligs were screwing them over. Therefore, I think the best way the Brewers can lose their fans is to get the fans thinking that the owner is only worried about making money and not about winning.