Open for business (part 2)

[Boomer5]

The SS who I would assume would be on the market right now have very little value if any at all factoring in their contracts. Andrus? Castro? Alexei Ramirez? All have big contracts. Tulo has value of course but he has close to 9 digits remaining and is injury prone, and who wants a Colorado player?

 

Segura is a legitimate starter, 25 years old, and cheap control until 2018 I believe.

[tmwiese55]

[sarcasm]But if you take Joe Schmo AAA and replace those guys with him he's going to play adequate D and hit above 260/310[/sarcasm]

[FVBrewerFan]

WAR schmor. Segura does not yet have a long enough track record to really know what kind of hitter he will be. I much rather keep him for another what? Three more controllable years? to find out. You're not going to get a great prospect in return for him anyhow, so what's the point of trading him?

 

Keep him another year, you can always trade him down the road if you want. I just don't see the upside in trading anyone on the 25 that has at least 3 controllable years, unless you get real top level talent. Same deal with Fiers by the way, who's name has started to come up a lot in rumors.

[MrTPlush]

If any scout saw last night's game he might want to think again about Segura only having played well in early 2013. All his talents were on display. Beat out infield hits, homered, stole a base, doubled up runners with laser throws to first. It's about time to stop the talk that he's only had one stretch of good play in early 2013. He's been pretty solid this year.

 

Right...One good game and let's lose our minds. Let's not pay attention to his pathetic OBP or the fact he has one measly XBH over his last 40 or so hits. Embarrassing

[Thurston Fluff]

Put minimum plate appearances to 0, and he's rank 27. There are apparently 10 guys who have not met the minimum number of plate appearances (like Jed Lowrie) who have provided more value (per WAR) than Segura.

 

WAR has major sample size issues with defense as it is let alone using small samples for everything. If a guy plays 3 games and goes 3 for 9 with an intentional walk and has one great defensive play his WAR is going to look might good. That in no way implies he is truly better than Segura. I seriously doubt there are a number of bench or utility guys who are actually better than Segura. If WAR says they are then it's time to look at what WAR really tells us. IMHO not much.

[Bombers]

Watch the Brewers go 9-0 in their next 9 games and become buyers (wish that was in Blue)

 

 

It's a possiblity. Lost in the shuffle of everyone drooling over fantasy baseball trades the Brewers are 11-4 on the month counting tonight's result and were 14-14 in June. They're hot, and seems like they're getting hotter.

 

Hopefully brewerfan.net doesn't collapse from the influx of angry posts if we don't see a trade of significance by July 31.

 

I hope they don't pause on making trades:

On June 23rd before the Brewers got hot we were 26-46 and the Cubs were 39-30. Cubs are in pole position two for the WC spot. So we were 16 games behind in the loss column. We have played great and have gone 17-6 since then. Current standings put us at 42-52 and the Cubs are at 50-42. So we played at a .740 clip and made up 6 games.

 

6 games is a lot of ground to make up in 1 month but no team will play at a .740 percentage for a lengthy period. Even if the Brewers can play .600 the rest of the season that would add 41 more wins for us (68 games left). That will give us a final record of 83-79. And that is playing .600 ball for over two months yet. (And if you factor in what we have done since June 23rd, that would mean we played a .640 clip from June 23rd through October 4th.) The best team in baseball (Cardinals) are playing at a .634 rate. And that only gets us to 83 wins. Last year, both wild card teams had 88 wins. So 83 would give us another nice mid first round pick and no playoffs. To get to 88 wins, we would need to play at a .676 clip from today and go 46-22 to finish with an 88-74 record.

[LouisEly]

Don't look now, but Ramirez is right in the middle of the pack of qualified 3B in OPS. Tied with Brett Lawrie.

 

Better than what DET, NYY, PIT, LAA, and HOU have going on at 3B. Makes a lot of sense for PIT, as Harrison will be back eventually so they don't need a long-term solution, and DET, as he can help mentor/coach Castellanos for a few months and then hand it back over to Castellanos in 2016. NYY too as money is no object, and Headley has been worse as a RHB than a LHB.

 

Just noticed that NYY have five LHH starters and three switch hitters, all of whom are worse vs. LHP than RHP. If teams want to beat them, they will need LH relievers (Cotts) or a RH reliever with a good changeup (K-Rod).

[monty57]

WAR schmor. Segura does not yet have a long enough track record to really know what kind of hitter he will be. I much rather keep him for another what? Three more controllable years? to find out. You're not going to get a great prospect in return for him anyhow, so what's the point of trading him?

 

My interest in trading him was earlier when it appeared that he was in demand. The latest blurb hints that he may not be in demand. If we can't get a good return, there isn't a reason to trade him. If we can get a good prospect we should trade him because we have in-house replacements. For me, it's pretty much that simple.

 

WAR has major sample size issues with defense as it is let alone using small samples for everything. If a guy plays 3 games and goes 3 for 9 with an intentional walk and has one great defensive play his WAR is going to look might good. That in no way implies he is truly better than Segura. I seriously doubt there are a number of bench or utility guys who are actually better than Segura. If WAR says they are then it's time to look at what WAR really tells us. IMHO not much.

 

Agree that there are sample size issues, but Segura was 0.0 WAR last year, is on pace for around 1.0 WAR this year, and was pretty bad after his hot start in 2013. That gives him over two straight years of sub-par play. He still has the potential to improve, and he still has some years of relatively cheap team control, but to date he hasn't shown himself to be anything more than a roughly replacement level player. He's the type of guy you utilize when he's cheap and you have no better options, but you don't have any qualms about replacing when something better comes along.

 

Maybe he's a "late bloomer," but making decisions based on that hope would be betting against the odds.

[Baldkin]

Put minimum plate appearances to 0, and he's rank 27. There are apparently 10 guys who have not met the minimum number of plate appearances (like Jed Lowrie) who have provided more value (per WAR) than Segura.

 

WAR has major sample size issues with defense as it is let alone using small samples for everything. If a guy plays 3 games and goes 3 for 9 with an intentional walk and has one great defensive play his WAR is going to look might good. That in no way implies he is truly better than Segura. I seriously doubt there are a number of bench or utility guys who are actually better than Segura. If WAR says they are then it's time to look at what WAR really tells us. IMHO not much.

 

No, that isn't true at all. WAR is a counting stat. The more you play, the more you accumulate. You can't have a "Mighty good WAR" after 3 games.

 

Segura since the start of June 2013:

BA: .260

OBP: .296

SLG: .343

OPS: .639

[tmwiese55]

Who was our "replacement level" the last few years? Elian Herrera. Yea now we have Sardinas so he could be shopped if you get something you like. Not everyone has that and this WAR stat acts like you can just pluck a guy from nowhere and he's going to be a competent MLB player. If half the teams are playing someone worse than him at either SS/2B there must not be all these replacements sitting around as the stat implies with it's name. If you don't see something you like trade him, otherwise I'm fine with keeping him and Sardinas coming up and splitting some time at 3B, 2b, SS and see how he hits.

[monty57]

Who was our "replacement level" the last few years?

 

Last year, Segura had 0.0 WAR, so he was the epitome of our "replacement level player."

 

Not everyone has that and this WAR stat acts like you can just pluck a guy from nowhere and he's going to be a competent MLB player. If half the teams are playing someone worse than him at either SS/2B there must not be all these replacements sitting around as the stat implies with it's name. If you don't see something you like trade him, otherwise I'm fine with keeping him and Sardinas coming up and splitting some time at 3B, 2b, SS and see how he hits.

 

It's less than half the teams, but there should be teams for which Segura would be an upgrade. The question is whether he's a significant enough upgrade for them to trade anything of value. Early on, it seemed that teams were interested, but that may not be the case now as it's beginning to look like the hot start in 2013 was the fluke, and Segura is more like the player Baldkin listed a few posts back.

 

I'm okay with Segura coming back if we can't get anything in return, but next year he hits arby so he will be making seven figures. If he and Sardinas are basically a coin flip as to who will provide more pure value, then Sardinas at 1/3 the price should be the odds-on favorite to put up more relative value, but he'll likely be on the bench because Segura has a voodoo effect on many people who still see him as that kid who had a hot couple of months in 2013. By next trade deadline (when Arcia should be ready for the MLB), if Segura is still playing the same ball he's played for the past two years, he will have less team control (and therefore less value) than he has today. If Sardinas outplays him and takes his spot, then he has zero trade value.

 

We're probably putting too much into this, because Segura is basically a placeholder. If we trade him, we won't get much, and if we hold him, we won't get much. It's kind of a coin flip where heads is blah, and tails is blah. The only ways we win are either if we trade him for a lottery ticket that pays off, or if we hold him and the light bulb goes off and he "finds it." Neither seems to be the likely scenario, so it's probably not worth putting this much thought into it. I just wish that if teams were really interested early (when Segura was showing some life) we would have jumped and got some value, but who knows if that opportunity ever existed.

[tmwiese55]

But who was his replacement, there's not just some endless string of people that you can pluck from AAA to play competently as that stat seems to imply. How many 'replacements' did we go through at 1B until giving up on that and trading for Lind. I just did a quick search to see who's been getting Miggy Cabrera's ABs for Detroit, guy who seems to be starting a fair amount is Marc Krauss, up to 70 abs now with a .148 avg and obp.

 

I said at 2B and SS, have to figure he's better than at least 10 at each spot.

 

I actually agree with your assessment on Segura in the last two paragraphs. I'm just trying to make a point about taking WAR too literally.

[monty57]

I'm just trying to make a point about taking WAR too literally.

 

Agree. The "replacement player" doesn't exist, and is just a baseline to try to show a player's worth. It's a "handy stat" just like OPS is a "handy stat" that gives a decent idea of a player's worth. It's not a be-all/end-all thing.

 

Because Segura is average-at-best defensively at a position in which defense is at least as important as offense, I think it's relevant to use a stat that at least tries to include defense in its mix.

[3and2Fastball]

Yunel Escobar's injury today just instantaneously improved Segura's trade value

[jackailius]

My hopes for the next week

 

Bluejays get:

Gomez, Krod, Cotts, Fiers

We Get:

Norris, Pompey, Hoffman

 

Angels get:

Parra

We get:

Kubitza and 2 lower level guy with upside

 

Pirates get:

Ramirez + $3M

We Get:

Lottery comp pick and lower level high upside guy

 

Astors get:

Lind

We Get:

Singleton and a lower level guy with upside

 

Padres get:

Segura

We get:

comp round pick and 2lower level high upside guys

[trwi7]

Yunel Escobar's injury today just instantaneously improved Segura's trade value

 

I don't see how. The Nationals are contending, so it's not like they were going to trade Escobar. He's been playing 3B all year. And even if he was playing SS, the Nationals have their own stud SS prospect to call up in Trea Turner.

[MrTPlush]

Yunel Escobar's injury today just instantaneously improved Segura's trade value

 

Umm why? If the Nationals don't want Segura it means nothing. Even if they are it may not improve it.

[Thurston Fluff]

Put minimum plate appearances to 0, and he's rank 27. There are apparently 10 guys who have not met the minimum number of plate appearances (like Jed Lowrie) who have provided more value (per WAR) than Segura.

 

WAR has major sample size issues with defense as it is let alone using small samples for everything. If a guy plays 3 games and goes 3 for 9 with an intentional walk and has one great defensive play his WAR is going to look might good. That in no way implies he is truly better than Segura. I seriously doubt there are a number of bench or utility guys who are actually better than Segura. If WAR says they are then it's time to look at what WAR really tells us. IMHO not much.

 

No, that isn't true at all. WAR is a counting stat. The more you play, the more you accumulate. You can't have a "Mighty good WAR" after 3 games.

 

Segura since the start of June 2013:

BA: .260

OBP: .296

SLG: .343

OPS: .639

 

Comparatively speaking yes you can. Segura has 320 PA's and a -5 offensive WAR. Jorge Polanco of the Twins has 4 ab's and his WAR is .2. The total WAR difference between the two is .6. In WAR terms that is negligible. Yet would you base your assessment of them as comparable players knowing one player has 4 plate appearances and one game while the other has 320 in 77 games? WAR doesn't differentiate between them. Fangraphs can probably explain the problem with counting stats better than I can. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/counting-v-rate/

The special case for counting stats involves setting a benchmark at a certain point and converting from the rate statistic. Imagine our league’s batting average is .270, and we have a batter who’s hitting .275 in 400 at-bats. Said batter has managed 110 hits, while the league average hitter would be at 108 hits in the same number of at-bats. We can therefore say that our hitter is two hits above average. This isn’t very useful for hits, but when we start converting to runs it becomes a big deal. However, there’s a problem. Although comparisons to league average are nice from a mathematical point of view, it distorts information somewhat. A hitter can get to one hit above average by hitting .273 in 400 at-bats, or by hitting .278 in 100 at-bats. Worse, a batter who has one awful at-bat and never sees the majors again might be ranked far higher than a slightly below average hitter who plays out the whole season. These statistics are therefore not correctly weighting playing time, which is a fairly major flaw.

 

Granted I was exaggerating to make a point about monty57's setting plate appearances at zero to show Segura was only the 27th best shortstop in the league. But that is pretty much exactly the mistake Monty57 made is setting the PA to zero.

[3and2Fastball]

Ian Desmond has been awful at SS for the Nationals. Speculation was they would move Escobar to SS. Turner might not be ready for a postseason run. I suppose it is a stretch, but I think Segura would help the Nationals. Or if the Nationals trade for a different SS it makes the availability of SS's less

[trwi7]

My fear at this point is they take offers for someone like Gomez but would only be willing to trade him if the other team takes Garza or Lohse back, which devalues Gomez. I really hope they don't do something like that.

[MrTPlush]

Attanasio always seems to want to spend every penny. I doubt he really cares about Garza's contract that much. Not only that but with all the saved money in the coming years do you think he really cares?

 

I don't see the concern here. I especially don't see them hurting a future deal using Lohse.

[3and2Fastball]

Lots of Brewers content in this article with a focus on Gomez/Parra

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bargain-hunting-at-the-trade-deadline/

[tmwiese55]

I read through that and agree. MKE should be holding strong for Gomez since we still control him and trade later. You know teams are asking the world for Price, Hamels, Cueto and he should be right there with them in what you get back.

[bill hAll Star]

My fear at this point is they take offers for someone like Gomez but would only be willing to trade him if the other team takes Garza or Lohse back, which devalues Gomez. I really hope they don't do something like that.

 

I think you're taking your Herb Kohl comparison too far here. I can't imagine they do this. Heck, the more realistic option is that Mark tries to compete again next year, in which he'd want Garza anyways.

[reillymcshane]

Remake the franchise:

 

- Gomez, Fiers (or Peralta), K-Rod for RHP Hoffmann, LHP Norris, C Pentecost (although health issues might preclude him)

- Parra, Lind, A-Ram for LHP Newcomb, 3B Kubitza (we'd probably have to sweeten our end of this - lots of cash to start)

- Lucroy to Seattle for Walker and other stuff

- Or Luc to Houston for RHP Appel, 3B Colin Moran

- Segura to the Mets for RHP Marcus Molina and 1B Dominic Smith (Mets would probably need a little more)

 

All trades are starting points. You have a few assets to sweeten deals, including cash, Cotts, Maldonado (although I prefer not to unload our only veteran catcher), even Broxton (if we pay salary).

 

And different trades could be made - just focus on high upside arms. They don't have to be major league ready - just get good players.

 

Roster:

 

Rotation: Walker, Norris, Nelson, Jungmann, Fiers or Peralta

Relievers: Jeffress, Knebel, Blazek, Smith, Goforth, Jaye Chapman, M. Strong (LOOGY), Cravy

 

C - Platoon Maldonado and either a veteran or one of our minor league guys for the next year or so.

1B - Rogers, Peterson could fill in (could add someone on the cheap as well)

2B - Scooter

SS - Sardinas

3B - Kubitza

LF - Davis

CF - Schafer - give him one last chance over the next year

RF - Braun

 

The rest of 2015 and 2016 is a transition year. We will suck, but you let guys gain experience. See what of the young guys are starter material. Later in 2016 and 2017, you start to see the arrival of guys like Arcia, Taylor, Reed, Newcomb, etc.

 

2017 we are an interesting club. Lots of youth. Lots of upside. We've weeded out some of the lesser players. Long term players are maturing, gaining experience.

 

2018 we are potentially good. More young guys arrive. Players mature. Many start hitting their prime. No big contracts left so you can even sign a guy or two to shore up weak spots in the roster.