Open for business (part 2)

[MrTPlush]

Heyman reporting Brewers are open for business and they will consider trading long term pieces if it makes the return better. K-Rod supposably has interest so I think he will go, Ramirez also getting interest so he should be gone, and lots of talk about Peralta/Fiers so one of them might go too.

 

Lots of guys are going to be on the move, this rebuilding idea might just become reality, and the farm system is about to be reloaded

[pacopete4]

Heyman says Brewers might be preparing for a fire sale type deadline.

 

So I should expect the exact opposite? Lol

[Lee16]

The balance lottery is tomorrow, are those the draft picks that are eligible to be traded? I honestly forget which draft picks can be traded and which cannot be. Maybe teams are waiting until those are assigned to possibly package them with deals. /shrug.

[torts]

Yeah balance picks can be traded

[MrTPlush]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers go after a those balance picks if they trade with a team that has one.

[superfly]

Watch the Brewers go 9-0 in their next 9 games and become buyers (wish that was in Blue)

 

 

It's a possiblity. Lost in the shuffle of everyone drooling over fantasy baseball trades the Brewers are 11-4 on the month counting tonight's result and were 14-14 in June. They're hot, and seems like they're getting hotter.

 

Hopefully brewerfan.net doesn't collapse from the influx of angry posts if we don't see a trade of significance by July 31.

[3and2Fastball]

Watch the Brewers go 9-0 in their next 9 games and become buyers (wish that was in Blue)

 

 

It's a possiblity. Lost in the shuffle of everyone drooling over fantasy baseball trades the Brewers are 11-4 on the month counting tonight's result and were 14-14 in June. They're hot, and seems like they're getting hotter.

 

Hopefully brewerfan.net doesn't collapse from the influx of angry posts if we don't see a trade of significance by July 31.

 

 

Orlando Arcia for David Price. I can see it now. Brewerfan.net loses it's mind

[Fear The Chorizo]

What other 3B are on the market? What other RH bats are on the market who are OPSing 970 in the last month?

 

Supply/Demand.

 

Let me clarify, when I say he will net a nice return, Im not saying top 10 or 25. But I do expect a top 100 easily for a guy that is essentially the same value of what MOST ANY rental trade represents despite the retirement.

 

Top 100 MLB prospect? Absolutely no way you'll get that for ARam.

 

What spot on the top 100 prospect list was Orlando Arcia at this time last year? The answer would be nowhere even close to the top 100. Now he's getting all sorts of pub as being one of the very best minor league players this season. Alot can happen in one year for a young prospect. Ramirez could easily net a top 100 prospect - just not one that's on the list currently.

 

I'm hoping the Brewers do whatever they can to trade for prospects that may still be 2-3 years away form being MLB-ready, provided they have a chance to be special if they put it all together.

[MrTPlush]

You aren't going to get any guy that looks promising. Best shot is to dig really really low into the minors and hope you hit the jack pot. Like trading for Orlando Arcia way way back when we first signed him...when he wasn't considered much.

 

Ramirez will fetch something that is next to nothing and will most likely always be that. With the off chance it provides something to the MLB team someday.

 

But you are off topic from what he actually said. It is true we won't get a current Top 100 or similar value. Now whether the scrub we get somehow turns into something or becomes a top 100 prospect is a totally different story.

[SRB]

Watch the Brewers go 9-0 in their next 9 games and become buyers (wish that was in Blue)

 

 

It's a possiblity. Lost in the shuffle of everyone drooling over fantasy baseball trades the Brewers are 11-4 on the month counting tonight's result and were 14-14 in June. They're hot, and seems like they're getting hotter.

 

Hopefully brewerfan.net doesn't collapse from the influx of angry posts if we don't see a trade of significance by July 31.

 

We still have the fourth worst record in baseball... Doug better be manning those phones!

[brewmann04]

Nice streak but should not focus on the longterm goal this season and for the future.

[Ennder]

Nice streak but should not focus on the longterm goal this season and for the future.

 

 

Probably should but a couple more wins in a row and I bet they don't. This is sort of that awkward scenario that I thought might happen and has. The Brewers have mid 80 win talent and the front office knows it. It is easy to just dump that when your season is hopeless but this glimmer of hope is going to make them pause most likely. Now you reach a point where part of the fanbase is actually upset if you sell anyone big. It is just a cruddy spot for them to be in. Unfortunately this season just like the last 2 is going to be derailed by one just awful stetch. If they could ever have a season where they keep that awful stretch to just bad they would probably make the playoffs.

 

4-17 (.190) in 2015

3-15 (.167) in 2014

6-22 (.214) in 2013

 

Stretches like that are complete season killers.

 

I mean I hope they at least trade 2 of Ramirez (yes he does have value), Parra, Broxton and Segura.

[monty57]

Heyman reporting Brewers are open for business and they will consider trading long term pieces if it makes the return better. K-Rod supposably has interest so I think he will go, Ramirez also getting interest so he should be gone, and lots of talk about Peralta/Fiers so one of them might go too.

 

Lots of guys are going to be on the move, this rebuilding idea might just become reality, and the farm system is about to be reloaded

 

Here's the blurb from MLBTraderumors:

 

"The Brewers are officially open for business and “may be considering a rather big sale,” one competing team exec tells Heyman. Interest in Jean Segura is down due to his poor play since an early 2013 breakout, but Gerardo Parra‘s big year has lots of clubs asking about him. Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta and Francisco Rodriguez are drawing interest, and the Brewers are open to packaging some of those players to improve the return."

 

Segura doesn't surprise me, as that's why I hoped they could trade him before rival GMs woke up. I am interested in seeing what Parra brings back, as he is certainly going to be traded. Seeing Peralta's name in there has my hopes up that they really are thinking of stockpiling prospects and not just retooling for a 2016 run.

[JohnBriggs12]

If any scout saw last night's game he might want to think again about Segura only having played well in early 2013. All his talents were on display. Beat out infield hits, homered, stole a base, doubled up runners with laser throws to first. It's about time to stop the talk that he's only had one stretch of good play in early 2013. He's been pretty solid this year.

[Ennder]

Segura probably needs to show he is trying to improve his plate discipline to have any real value. If he were sort of stagnant but was at least learning to take a walk I'd have a lot more hope for him.

 

You have to be a very special player to walk as little as he does and still be a good hitter.

[3and2Fastball]

Segura is a Top 15-Top 18 SS in MLB. Just about half the teams in MLB have a worse SS than Segura playing for them right now. It is a premiere position, and he's shown flashes of being a Top 5 to Top 10 SS. He has plenty of value.

[tmwiese55]

Parra is an absolute must trade. Lind is nearly a must trade. And if you get something good back for K-Rod you take it. After that they don't absolutely have to do anything. Gomez/Lucroy/Segura are the next best chips and there's no rush to do it.

[monty57]

Segura is a Top 15-Top 18 SS in MLB. Just about half the teams in MLB have a worse SS than Segura playing for them right now. It is a premiere position, and he's shown flashes of being a Top 5 to Top 10 SS. He has plenty of value.

 

I guess it depends on how you measure "Top SS." According to fangraphs, Segura's WAR has been:

 

2012 -0.2 (45 games)

2013 3.5

2014 0.0

2015 0.6 (through 77 games)

 

In 2014, there were 32 other players who are classified as shortstop who provided more WAR than Segura. Since there are only 30 teams, that means there are a number of utility/bench players who provided more value than Segura. This year, there are 25 other players who are classified as shortstop who have provided more WAR than Segura.

 

Since his hot start to the 2013 season, he has been a replacement level player. Any value he has derives from team control and potential.

[3and2Fastball]

Jean Segura: 17th Ranked SS on Fangraphs this season

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Boomer5]

Our players are doing their part to pump up their value. I know its one start, but one more Garza start like last night might be enough to get one dumb GM to buy into him.

 

Parra, Lind, Cotts are all at the top of near the top of the availables of their respective roles and I would assume all three wont be with us on Aug 1. Gomez and Luc are potential block busters but I have no idea if they will be moved or not.

 

I am way more bullish on the value of ARam. A middle of the order bat at a premium position who is at a 970 last month?

 

I am also more bullish on Segura. He is a 25 year old starting SS and those are pretty rare. Id just as soon hold on to him and move him to 2nd and pair him with Arcia in 2016 if we couldnt trade him for a key piece.

[tmwiese55]

I understand the usefulness of WAR as way to factor in all aspects when valuing a player(similar to PER in NBA). But I think it get over used as an absolute sometimes and people tend to act like you can just pluck anyone from the minors and stick them in there, and I just don't think it's that simple. Look at our 1B situation the last few years as an example. I just did a quick scan of SSs and really only found 7 that I viewed as no-brainers over Segura. Then there's a pile of comparable guys to him. Then throw in another half of the teams that he'd be an upgrade at 2B and he should have some value.

[monty57]

Jean Segura: 17th Ranked SS on Fangraphs this season

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Put minimum plate appearances to 0, and he's rank 27. There are apparently 10 guys who have not met the minimum number of plate appearances (like Jed Lowrie) who have provided more value (per WAR) than Segura.

 

I understand the usefulness of WAR as way to factor in all aspects when valuing a player(similar to PER in NBA). But I think it get over used as an absolute sometimes and people tend to act like you can just pluck anyone from the minors and stick them in there, and I just don't think it's that simple.

 

I agree, but I used it because it does try to include defense. At SS that's very important, so using purely offensive stats doesn't work well in judging SS.

 

2+ years of replacement level WAR doesn't point to a really valuable player. As I said, his value comes from his team control and potential. Team control shrinks with every day that goes by, and he doesn't seem to be advancing towards the potential he showed early in 2013. I don't think we could "pluck anyone from the minors," but I think Sardinas has the potential to give us just as much value as Segura, and Arcia should blow him away when he's up in a year or so.

 

If we were in the playoff race, I obviously wouldn't be a proponent of trading him right now because he's a known entity. However, in our current position, and with in-house options available, I think it's worth shopping him. Maybe Sardinas "sinks," but maybe he "swims," and now would be a good time to give him that shot.

 

The latest blurb I quoted above hints that the Brewers might not get much for Segura. In that case we should hold onto him. But, if we could get something of value in trade, we should trade him.

 

Edit: Looking at the WAR list, I noticed that Escobar is in line to provide around 5-5.5 WAR this season, so I looked up Cain, who is on pace for around 8.5-9 WAR, and Odorizzi around 3. Greinke gave the Brewers 3.8 WAR in 2011. Not trying to rehash the "what could have been" debate, I note this because this is why it is very important that we take the opportunity we now have to trade some vets in order to restock the system with young talent. If we are willing to trade away some top talent (Gomez, Lucroy), we could put together some really good teams in the future... not the "if everything goes right, we could be in the hunt for the 2nd wildcard."

[tmwiese55]

In our situation we actually do have a guy in Sardinas sitting there who should get reasonably close to him so I get why they should look into it. Not every team has that at SS or 2B and that's why there should be some demand for him, of course you're not getting some elite prospect or anything but plenty of teams should view him as an upgrade one of those two spots.

 

I get what WAR tries to do but I think the name should be changed somehow, I think too many people take it too literally. That's really all I was getting at. Call it Player Value Rating or something like that.

[LouisEly]

Just look at the contenders - most of them have SS with an OPS south of .625.

 

Don't think that MIN (Santana), LAD (Rollins), CHC (Castro), WSH (Desmond), BAL (Hardy), PIT (Mercer), NYY (Gregorius), TB (Cabrera), or NYM (Flores - better OPS, but much worse OBP and defense) would love to have Segura right now.

[3and2Fastball]

Jean Segura: 17th Ranked SS on Fangraphs this season

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Put minimum plate appearances to 0, and he's rank 27. There are apparently 10 guys who have not met the minimum number of plate appearances (like Jed Lowrie) who have provided more value (per WAR) than Segura.

 

 

Ahhh, OK, thank you I appreciate you pointing that out. Apparently he has less value than I thought!