Open for business (part 2)

[Raw Biz]

One reason that we will NOT be open for business is that the Brewers rely on ticket/merch sales to cover operating costs more than other teams. If the team is gutted and we end up starting Clarks and Schafers everywhere as we tank then attendance will plummet too. It's a miracle that it hasn't already. Fans here that are imagining trades all over the place and a roster that starts 7 guys with .650 OPS aren't the ones that pay for things.

 

To this I say that Parra, KRod, ARamirez, and Cotts will be moved, but Lind, CGomez, and Segura won't be. This will allow players like Lucroy to feel better about staying here as he has never done a full blow up/ overhaul here, and it doesn't sound like he'd want to. It also allows less diehard fans to have a glimmer of hope for the future of contention, offer some salary relief, shift some non-returning parts for prospects, and not have the passive fans shift into Bucks mode so soon.

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2015/7/16/8978329/brewers-trade-deadline-rumors-roster-potential-august

 

will never happen...

 

People have posted about this before but attendance will likely not fall below 2 million, even with a bad team. After the historically awful 2002, even 1.7 million fans came out in 2003 (13th of 16 in attendance). They have been competitive just about every year since then but Milwaukee has always had a very supportive fan base. Additionally, many people come for the whole experience of tailgating and partying and don't even care if the Brewers win/lose.

 

I would argue that keeping guys like Lind, Gomez, Segura, Lucroy would do more damage in the long run because it shows that the owners only care about things like attendance and trying to give the false sense that we can compete. Fans aren't stupid. If you show them and make them understand what you are trying to do, i.e., trade our valuable assets now to be even more better in the future, they will come on board.

[monty57]

One reason that we will NOT be open for business is that the Brewers rely on ticket/merch sales to cover operating costs more than other teams.

 

I agree that Attanasio runs the team based on a fear of a decline in ticket sales, and agree that we will not do the rebuild that many think is necessary.

 

To this I say that Parra, KRod, ARamirez, and Cotts will be moved, but Lind, CGomez, and Segura won't be.

 

I agree with this as well, and I believe that they will get nothing back that will have a substantive positive effect on future Brewer teams from these trades. They will be mainly to save money this year, as they were over budget going into the season, and the poor play will lead to less ticket sales, concessions, parking, etc, so the ownership group will lose money unless they divest themselves of some payroll obligations.

 

It also allows less diehard fans to have a glimmer of hope for the future of contention

 

I agree with this as well (at least the way it's written). It's not about actually being good now or in the future, it is about giving fans the perception that they are "doing something," so that those fans will buy tickets. Unfortunately, in the small sample set that is the people I talk to, none of them believe this, so another year of signing a "name" free agent to bump ticket sales will likely have a diminished effect relative to previous years.

 

I believe that Brewer fans would accept a rebuild, as long as the Brewers told them what they were doing. I think the one thing that will permanently lose fans is to give those fans the impression that the owners are only in it for the money, and are not really trying to win. That's what got attendance so low at the end of the Selig ownership, and Attanasio has to be careful not to let that happen to him.

[paul253]

The idea of putting a roster together for the sake of better attendance is what got us into this mess to begin with. I don't know what pains me more: the fact that Mark thinks so little of the average fan that he feels they'll turn and run at the first sight of a rebuild or the fact that so many average fans WILL run.

 

At this point there is zero reason to keep Gomez Lucroy and Segura. Zero. But I'll be surprised if even one of them is moved.....shocked if more than one. And it's almost entirely because they don't want to make it look like they are rebuilding even though that is exactly what they need to do. This long, slow decline is made all that more painful by the refusal, for whatever reason, to accept the state of the franchise and take necessary steps to correct it.

[MrTPlush]

-Why should the Brewers not trade Gomez? What attendence will he improve in a wasted season? He will be traded this off-season at the latest.

-What fan buys lots of Segura merchandise? Who won't go to a game if they trade him?

-Same goes for Lind.

 

How will keeping them make Lucroy feel better. He wants to win...not have these guys around. If they aren't winning it is alll the same. Not to mention who even said the Brewers even want him after his current contract. My bets on they won't even consider it.

[TheCrew07]

Yea, again, as far as the minor for minor trades it's simple as this. Why would you trade a young average-ish prospect or older AAAA guy at one position for the same thing at another position? I just don't see how that improves your situation.

 

Depends on the team and situation, no one has really swapped B type prospects in the past, and it hasn't been done in a while, but that doesn't mean it's not a good idea.

 

Hamilton/Volquez (both limited MLB experience at the time) and Garza/Young are the prospect for prospect trades that immediately come to mind for me. I know there where additional players in those deals, I just grabbed the headliners.

 

If we were looking to do a prospect for prospect swap today we'd be talking about moving someone like Orlando Arcia for Lucas Giolito of the Nationals, or Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates, or Alex Reyes of the Cardinals. Washington has a declining 29 year old Ian Desmond at SS, Pittsburgh a very average 28 year old Jordy Mercer, and St Louis 33 year old Jhonny Peralta who's contract expires after 2017. None of those pitching prospects are can't miss types, but neither is Arcia as questions will linger about his long term offensive production, regardless of what I think about his hand/eye coordination, until he proves otherwise.

 

On a club on the downside of their run I don't think prospect for prospect deals necessarily make much sense, I do believe they would have made a ton of sense in 2008 and 2009.

 

I'd be somewhat down about losing Arcia because he's a personal favorite of mine (like Odorizzi at the time of the Greinke trade) but I'd love to get a legitimate front line starting pitcher to slot into the rotation for 2016 or 2017 so I'd have mixed feelings. However since I believe starting pitching > position players and I think it's always good idea to trade up value a deal like that would be in the best long term interests of the organization.

 

Both strategies have their merits but since the Brewers have been trending downwards at the MLB level I'd rather move MLB pieces and try to acquire 2 possible top of the rotation starters than do a prospect for prospect swap. Let's load up on prospects now to mitigate risk and have ammunition to permanently fill holes at a position of greater need in the future.

[trwi7]

Haudricourt keeps bringing up how the Brewers need to keep Lucroy and now he's taking it a step further saying they need to extend him. All in an article about how the Brewers need to rebuild. It's baffling.

 

6. Extend the catcher

 

There has been much debate about whether the Brewers should or shouldn't trade Jonathan Lucroy. Trading him now would be sheer nonsense. He has two years remaining on his contract, including an option year for 2017, at club-friendly terms. He is the most important player on the team for a variety of reasons, including his position, leadership and marketing. There is no bigger fan favorite on the team. At 29, he should be extended as one of the true "keepers" during the team's transition stage.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/for-the-brewers-there-will-be-no-quick-fix-b99539236z1-316066371.html

[TheCrew07]

He's basically an organizational stooge, I'm not surprised at all.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I only agree if he takes a massively team friendly deal. Like say a 3/30 extension. So he'd only be signed until 34/35ish age. You might be able to talk him into something similar since he's made almost no money in his career so far, might just take it so he doesn't have to worry about money ever again and the risk that would come with being 31 when he hits FA. If he gets hurt again or doesn't hit well he might not get the monster deal. But I doubt he takes something like that, I think he wants a trade and then work an extension with that team. He is our best chip to really jump start the rebuild, I think you play it, it's not like his 'marketability' is anything close to Braun/Fielder in their day. He's not a start anywhere near that level.

[torts]

the few catchers I put at the level of Lucroy are Molina and Martin. Molina signed a 5 yr $75 mil deal after his age 29 season and Martin did a 2 year $15 mil deal after age 29. He then signed a 5 yr $82 mil deal after his age 31 season. I could see Lucroy hitting the free agent market after his age 31 season to get paid like these two, but I see him in milwaukee through next season. (2017 is a team option, I could see him being potentially traded after the 2016 season)

[tmwiese55]

Yea that's fairly spot on. The risk for him is that if he has two more years like this one then he's looking at 2/15 type of thing. No way I'd offer up a Molina type deal now with two years left, only if it's super team friendly. I'm fine with waiting until the offseason for Gomez and/or Lucroy, let them rebuild their value a bit the rest of the year.

[reillymcshane]

Lucroy deal:

 

3 year extension for $51M, which includes a $15M signing bonus (paid out in installments of $8M in 2016 and $7M in 2017), and annual salaries of $12M from 2018-20.

 

Luc is scheduled to make roughly $4M in 2016, and $5M in 2017. That means he'd take home $12M each year - right in line with the rest of the deal.

 

Luc could wait until after 2017, but a lot can happen between then and now. This gets him some serious guaranteed money - $60M over five years (combining the extension with the two years he has left on his deal). It's not the $75-85M that Martin, Molina and McCann got - but he's not a free agent for two years. And the $51M in new money is in line with the deals (at least on an annual basis) that the other catchers have gotten.

 

I'm not saying we should do this - just a suggestion on a way to do an extension that might palatable to everyone. Without a potential replacement for Luc, it solidifies the position for a long time. And even if Luc does decline, he should still provide decent value. We wouldn't be paying him $20M while he's a 34 year old catcher. We spread the payments out so he's not a big suck on payroll.

 

Again, just an idea.

[1992casey]

One reason that we will NOT be open for business is that the Brewers rely on ticket/merch sales to cover operating costs more than other teams. If the team is gutted and we end up starting Clarks and Schafers everywhere as we tank then attendance will plummet too.

The Brewers have a lot more good will than they had a decade ago. At that point, the team hadn't contended or even reached .500 in over a decade. The minor league system had produced next to nothing over that time. And there was little hope of raising a small payroll, even though Miller Park was brand new.

 

At this point, fans understand the process of rebuilding and have reason to believe that it will work. And they know that the team is able and willing to pay for players and put a mid-market payroll on the field. With a recent history of relative success, fans aren't as likely to consider a rebuild to be synonymous with doom.

 

I'd expect attendance to decrease, but not to the point where it was when fans were extremely frustrated. And because a rebuilding phase tends to have a team carrying a lower payroll, there's no reason why the Brewers can't continue to break even.

 

Also, during a rebuild, I think we'll be able to see players that are somewhat better than a team full of Logan Schafers. A decade ago, it was a big deal to pay a player $3 million. During a rebuild at this point, it shouldn't be a problem to have a handful of $5–10 million players on short term contracts.

[LouisEly]

Regarding prospect for prospect trades, Anthony Rizzo was traded for Andrew Cashner back in 2012. Seems to have worked out pretty well for both teams, tilted a little towards the Cubs, but both players have played well since the trade.

[reillymcshane]

The pain or rebuilding can be mitigated by having a strong plan in place to succeed down the road, and communicating that plan to you base. Some fans will be angry and walk away, but most people can accept the change if they feel like the end game is worth it.

[markedman5]

@ChrisCotillo: The Brewers are reportedly willing to trade Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura this month: http://t.co/O1acX3DSWU http://t.co/B7EjWn2tcE

[TheCrew07]

Regarding prospect for prospect trades, Anthony Rizzo was traded for Andrew Cashner back in 2012. Seems to have worked out pretty well for both teams, tilted a little towards the Cubs, but both players have played well since the trade.

 

Wow that was too obvious to miss, good call.

[markedman5]

http://fansided.com/2015/07/17/mets-and-brewers-should-match-up-well-at-trade-deadline/?utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=si.com&xid=si_social

[MrTPlush]

Any Lucroy extension is a bad extension in my mind. He is a player you trade and don't look back. If his offense declines he will become an average catcher really quick. I don't want to pay an average catcher $15mil. We need to trade him as that will actually help the next contending team unlike having an overpaid catcher.

[MrTPlush]

http://fansided.com/2015/07/17/mets-and-brewers-should-match-up-well-at-trade-deadline/?utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=si.com&xid=si_social

 

Gomez/Segura for Wheeler/Nimmo

 

Someone find the accept button I will take that gamble.

[SRB]

http://fansided.com/2015/07/17/mets-and-brewers-should-match-up-well-at-trade-deadline/?utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=si.com&xid=si_social

 

Gomez/Segura for Wheeler/Nimmo

 

Someone find the accept button I will take that gamble.

 

Yikes, no thank you... Would not accept that package just for Gomez.

[MrTPlush]

http://fansided.com/2015/07/17/mets-and-brewers-should-match-up-well-at-trade-deadline/?utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=si.com&xid=si_social

 

Gomez/Segura for Wheeler/Nimmo

 

Someone find the accept button I will take that gamble.

 

Yikes, no thank you... Would not accept that package just for Gomez.

 

The way I value Gomez/Segura I think it would be a fair trade. Segura is nothing more than an average SS and Gomez is a nice player for 1.5years. I don't put a lot of value into Segura so to me this trade is mainly for Gomez. Maybe a couple players from the low minors balances it out. Of course who knows how other teams value them and I don't have the luxury of seeing Wheeler's medicals. Which obviously would be a huge part to a possible trade.

 

If you still put a bunch of stock into Segura that probably seems like a bad trade for the Brewers. That and if you don't like guys who had TJS.

 

(I'd like to add it isn't a trade I would jump all over...I kinda made it seem like that. But I would be more than happy with that trade if nothing better was being offered.)

[SRB]

The way I value Gomez/Segura I think it would be a fair trade. Segura is nothing more than an average SS and Gomez is a nice player for 1.5years. I don't put a lot of value into Segura so to me this trade is mainly for Gomez. Maybe a couple players from the low minors balances it out. Of course who knows how other teams value them and I don't have the luxury of seeing Wheeler's medicals. Which obviously would be a huge part to a possible trade.

 

If you still put a bunch of stock into Segura that probably seems like a bad trade for the Brewers. That and if you don't like guys who had TJS.

 

(I'd like to add it isn't a trade I would jump all over...I kinda made it seem like that. But I would be more than happy with that trade if nothing better was being offered.)

 

I think Segura has tremendous value, but even if it were just for Gomez I don't think it's a good trade. Brandon Nimmo's only asset is that he can play CF competently -- he has a .707 OPS this season and other than a fantastic stint at A+ last season has always had an OPS in the .700s. Aside from his prospect pedigree, how much better is he than Tyrone Taylor (who is a year younger and playing at the same level this season). Wheeler at his best is a #2/#3 pitcher, is coming off a major injury, and already has two years of team control burned.

 

No thanks.

[bill hAll Star]

You can't say that Segura has fantastic value and then rip another player for having 1 decent year in the midst of several uninspiring ones...because that's what Segura's career is. I don't think the league sees much in Segura anymore.

 

In terms of Nimmo though, I've heard his name a lot but don't know much more...I'm assuming the scouts think he'll develop some power? Otherwise, I don't know what a guy struggling to hit .800 in AA brings to the table.

[SRB]

You can't say that Segura has fantastic value and then rip another player for having 1 decent year in the midst of several uninspiring ones...because that's what Segura's career is. I don't think the league sees much in Segura anymore.

 

In terms of Nimmo though, I've heard his name a lot but don't know much more...I'm assuming the scouts think he'll develop some power? Otherwise, I don't know what a guy struggling to hit .800 in AA brings to the table.

 

Sure I can, because Segura's good year came at the MLB level (not A+...), and because Segura plays shortstop. Simple as that. Major league shortstops have fantastic value.

 

However, my point wasn't that Nimmo stinks, but merely that I don't see what value he brings to us above our existing options (such as Tyrone Taylor).

[MrTPlush]

Segura didn't have a good year, he had two insane months before he fell back down to earth.