Open for business (part 2)

[paul253]

I get that but the hole is now and the solution is....well there is no solution. Right now Milwaukee has three players who are probably major league ready at SS (segura Sardinas and Arica) and a fourth who could at the very least play major league caliber defense (Rivera). Meanwhile third base is so barren they've had to take chances on guys that were designated for assignment because their play was so bad. It'd be a matter of trading one of your three minor league shortstops. You still have plenty of coverage in case the move doesn't pan out. And if the prospect you trade for doesn't cut it then you're in the same position you are now.

[tmwiese55]

Or the one that you decide to trade pans out, the guy you got back doesn't and none of the SS you kept panned out either.

 

In the Brewers situation you just move them to 2B and 3B and see if they can hit big league pitching. By the time Arcia is ready we'll know if Scooter and Perez are legit players. You can even move one to LF if Davis doesn't pan out. Maybe even one to CF after you trade Gomez.

[FVBrewerFan]

I get that but the hole is now and the solution is....well there is no solution.

 

Actually, the hole isn't there now- ARam is the 3B for the rest of the year, or until he gets traded. Even if he is, the season is lost so Lohse could play 3B and it doesn't matter. Next season, they can move Segura to 3B or try any combination of Rogers, Dominguez, or Perez.

 

I know that doesn't sound great, but I'll ask you this. Do you think you'll get a better prospect than that for Sardinas or Rivera?

[paul253]

You're right we don't have a hole now. We still have an entire half season before Ramirez retires. That's assuming he's not traded first. Plenty of time.

 

Seriously though, I like Rogers but he's been brutal at third base. I think he needs to stay at first or go to the outfield. Perez has been good in his short time in Milwaukee but his career numbers are awful. .230/.254/.305. He's got no power at all and is probably best served as a utility player, not a full time third baseman. Dominguez hasn't been a whole lot better .233/.275/.374 over 1200+ major league at bats. I'm don't have much faith in any of these guys.

 

As far as who we'd get for Sardinas or Rivera. Well remember the team trading with us would probably have a logjam at their position or a player already blocking the prospect. I doubt we'd get much for Rivera but Sardinas has to have some value. He's only 22 and is major league ready. It's not like I'm expecting a top ten prospect back. Just someone of similar value. I think SS is a very valued position so that might increase the return a bit as well. But either way without making a move what are you gonna do with all these guys? You only need so many middle infielders and utility players.

[tmwiese55]

If Sardinas is ML ready he should be up playing 2B and 3B to see how he hits. My guess is he won't be able hit enough to be a starter.

[monty57]

I know that doesn't sound great, but I'll ask you this. Do you think you'll get a better prospect than that for Sardinas or Rivera?

 

No, and that's why we should trade Segura, since he apparently is being sought after and could therefore bring back a talented player or two. We then let our unproven guys (Sardinas / Rivera) get some playing time at the MLB level for the rest of this year and next, when it is unlikely we will be competing for a playoff spot.

 

Arcia is far and away the best prospect the Brewers have, so while he may fall apart, it seems likely that by mid-season next year or the start of 2017, he will be our SS. If Sardinas and or Rivera can prove anything by that point, they can either be moved to another position, fill a spot as a utility guy, or maybe they will have shot their value up enough by then that we would be able to get a good return by trading them.

 

There is little sense trading Sardinas or Rivera now when they have no value, but do have the potential to have value in the future. But then again, there is little sense in holding onto all of them, which is probably what will happen, so I don't know which is worse, holding all of them or trading the prospects who will bring back little in return.

[tmwiese55]

Why not just move Segura to 2B or 3B when Arcia comes up? Unless of course you get a deal that you feel is clearly in your favor. Otherwise just keep the competent MLB starter in Segura that is cheap for a few more years as the others likely won't make it.

[monty57]

Why not just move Segura to 2B or 3B when Arcia comes up? Unless of course you get a deal that you feel is clearly in your favor. Otherwise just keep the competent MLB starter in Segura that is cheap for a few more years as the others likely won't make it.

 

Who says they won't make it? At the very least, both Sardinas and Rivera should provide much better defense than Segura, and it's not like he's that good with the bat. We might lose .050 OPS points, but overall (defense plus offense) we might actually get more from Sardinas/Rivera then we'd get from Segura. Since we aren't in the playoff hunt this season and likely won't be next year either, it seems the ideal time to capitalize on this.

 

As far as "cheap for a few more years," Segura hits arby next year. He will still be less expensive than he would be as a free agent, but he'll have a seven figure salary. Once he gets a year or two into arby, it's seems likely that he won't have much trade value. He's an average hitting, below average fielding MLB SS, so a whole lot of his trade value comes from him being relatively cheap with a few years of team control.

 

Holding onto him would just give the fans another name they know to cheer for in a losing season, while his trade value steadily diminishes. Meanwhile, Sardinas (formerly a highly rated prospect) and Rivera will be relegated to AAA/bench status, so we will never know if they could prove themselves. Just seems like we're giving up a lot of value (both current and potential) in order to sell a few more tickets next year.

 

Edit: Per ESPN, Segura has 0.5 WAR this year, and 0.60 last year. What everyone is hoping for is that he really is the 3.9 WAR guy he showed in 2013, but that is seeming less and less likely. If he is truly a 0.50 - 1.00 WAR player, he is not that hard to replace... there are 24 guys in the majors better than him right now. Trade him while he's still viewed as "cheap with potential."

[tmwiese55]

Who says they won't make it?

 

You never know, odds are against simply because most don't. You can play Sardinas and Rivera right now at 2B and 3B until mid next year when Arcia needs to come up. You should have a good idea on them by then. Chances are they won't show much offense, hopefully one performs and is deemed worthy of a starting spot. Then you can bring up Arcia and have Ardinas/Rivera, Segura and Arcia as your infield. But yea I'm fine with trading Segura now if you get something back that you view favorably, like in a Mets deal with Ramirez that nets some kind of pitching prospect. The basis of this question all started around trading minor leaguers for minor leaguers didn't it? Trading a proven MLB player to free up spots for unproven mid level prospects that are by no means locks to be MLB starters is what I was talking about. It makes sense in an Overbay/Fielder situation. And yes it's starting to look that way with Segura/Arcia but we currently have two other starting spots available in the IF. Sardinas/Rivera are who knows types.

[Baldkin]

Why not just move Segura to 2B or 3B when Arcia comes up? Unless of course you get a deal that you feel is clearly in your favor. Otherwise just keep the competent MLB starter in Segura that is cheap for a few more years as the others likely won't make it.

 

Basically, outside of 3 months in 2013, Segura hasn't been a competent MLB player.

[tmwiese55]

Didn't someone just post he's had a positive WAR the last two years. Isn't that kind the definition of competent. I think someone used some figures that ranked him the #14 SS in MLB this year.

[TheCrew07]

I haven't been around since last Friday but I just wanted to say that looking at prospects who were traded as "throw ins" on deals and then looking at players who were the legit target of the trade are 2 entirely different concepts.

 

Sure most throw in players down in A ball or lower don't amount to anything, that's why you take a flyer on them there and teams are willing to tack on a couple in trades, and of course prospects in AAA or AA are much easier to project.

 

I have not, nor will I ever advocate trading for a MLB ready back end starter like we did with Overbay, I would much rather search out legitimate talent in the lower minors and pluck it before that players becomes a "thing". I absolutely understand it's the harder road, and requires the most patience, but I think that's the route that will ultimately yield the most talent and impact in the end.

 

Talent is my ultimate focus and unless we're trading someone like Gomez or Lucroy we aren't going to get back MLB ready or near MLB ready impact talent. If we want a pitcher like Daniel Norris of Toronto then we have to be willing to give up a MLB piece with enough value to get him. To arbitrarily say say that MLB player value > prospect value, that's not so true anymore. 10 years ago it was absolutely true, but no one is giving up a potential #1 or #2 starting pitcher in the minors for a player who's MLB average, we have to be willing to give impact talent to get it back it back.

 

To me that's the fundamental disconnect in the debate, the minute we decide any MLB player shouldn't be traded we limit trade possibilities and the potential return. Some teams will be interested in Parra, some teams in Gomez, some in Lucroy, some in Segura... and of course all of those teams will have farm systems of various quality and their best prospects may not match up well with our needs. I believe in trading the player who nets you the greatest return so if there is an awesome deal that matches our organizational needs out there for Lucroy but there are only quantity (vs quality) deals out there for Gomez, then you hang onto Gomez and trade Lucroy.

 

More often than not teams will trade the most expendable player which of course will limit the possible destinations and possible return, unless the team happens into a sweet spot where there is a bidding war for that player. That's why I was willing to trade Hardy and Fielder when very few or maybe in truth no other posters on this site were. If the player isn't or shouldn't be part of the long term future of the team then I'm all about extracting the best possible value for that player. Rarely will that value be achieved through a comp pick after the player leaves in FA or in a rental deadline deal, especially with the rule changes in compensation.

 

Nor am I looking to move Segura and replace him with Arcia, I'd like that group of players in AA to move together and come up around the same time. We have cheap replacements for Segura already within the organization which would allow Arica to finish up this year in AA and start next year in AAA.

 

At the end of last week JB12 said, and I'm paraphrasing, that every season is special and shouldn't be thrown away. I can certainly sympathize with that point of view but I don't feel it's realistic. There was nothing special about Brewer baseball from '92 to '05 and the way the team has operated since has ensured that only 2 of the seasons since were "special". The memories created from family and friends at or watching games with us is special, but the product on the field is not special, nor has it been outside of 2008 and 20011. If we want to build something lasting it will require a different tact. The ownership, front office, and fans have to quit chasing 1 or 2 extra wins at various positions in a calendar year and take a longer view of the franchise. The only compelling reason to sacrifice talent for immediate MLB production is a product of impatience and selfishness; there's very little difference between a team that wins 74 games vs a team that wins 82. Neither is going to post season, neither is going to a win championship, and neither is truly competitive.

 

A .500 record was a big deal to climb out of the hole the organization dug itself, but that shouldn't be the benchmark of a "good" or even "acceptable" season. Something around 92 wins should be the goal, having a top 3 rotation in the NL should be the goal, not building an average rotation with an upper half offense because it's not possible to win a Championship that way. The Phillies tried it for years, they had average pitching with the best offense in the NL and couldn't do anything with it until they acquired the necessary pitching. Compare 2006 and 2007 with 2008 and 2009 from a pitching standpoint, then look at where the Brewers have ranked in pitching and where they ultimately finished since 2005.

 

This league is about pitching and the Brewers haven't had it, that's where the focus needs to be, and until the Brewers get it none of the rest really matters.

[monty57]

Didn't someone just post he's had a positive WAR the last two years. Isn't that kind the definition of competent. I think someone used some figures that ranked him the #14 SS in MLB this year.

 

He is #14 in OPS out of the 23 who qualify, so he's slightly below average offensively (in a down period for SS offense). When defense is added (WAR), he falls to #25 of the 30 SS in the league. To illustrate, #15 in OPS is Andrelton Simmons. About the same as Segura offensively (using OPS), but his defense gives him a 2.3 WAR vs Segura's 0.5. That's just this year. Last year he was worse, and in 2013, due to a phenomenal start, he was good.

 

A positive WAR simply means he's better than the mythical "replacement player," which is theoretically meant to stand for some guy who could fill in the position, but should be replaced as soon as possible. A player should probably be able to post a 2.0 or so WAR if he doesn't want to be on constant lookout of being replaced. Segura has potential, but seems to be falling into this category... basically a placeholder until something better comes along, or until he gets too expensive for his limited production.

 

I'm kind of surprised that there appears to be a decent market for Segura. My guess is that other GM's see the team control he has remaining, and still remember the hot start he had to his 2013 season. If we trade him, there's a chance we miss that "breakout" if it occurs, but if we hold on to him, and he remains at the level he has been at for the last couple of seasons, he will not have any trade value in the not-too-distant future, and will be let go when he gets expensive.

 

Since Sardinas and Rivera are supposed to both be very good defensively, I don't think we'd lose much in switching from Segura to one (or some combo) of them. We may lose a tick offensively, but that should be made up with better defense. And there is the distinct possibility that the Sardinas/Rivera does hit as well as Segura, and if he does, then he essentially becomes an Andrelton Simmons-type player. Maybe not as good on defense, but certainly more valuable than Segura.

 

This is Segura we're talking about here. He's not that good and we have competent replacements. If we can con another GM into giving us something of value in trade, we should jump at the deal.

[tmwiese55]

Sorry it's semantics to me. To me competent means a guy in the middle of the pack like 14th and that holding his own but not really a star and that's what he is to me. I don't mind flipping him if the right thing presents itself as Sardinas probably won't be massive disaster like a Yuni. This was all about discussing trading minor leaguers for other minor leaguers and trying to explain why teams don't do it and went off on a tangent.

[monty57]

To me competent means a guy in the middle of the pack like 14th and that holding his own but not really a star and that's what he is to me. I don't mind flipping him if the right thing presents itself as Sardinas probably won't be massive disaster like a Yuni.

 

I agree with that assessment. If we didn't have competent MLB-ready replacements waiting in the wings, I would have no problem holding on to Segura in hopes that he "finds it" and gets closer to his potential. Since we have those replacements, I think we should trade Segura while he still has value and see if one of his replacements can handle the position.

 

This was all about discussing trading minor leaguers for other minor leaguers and trying to explain why teams don't do it and went off on a tangent.

 

The prospect-for-prospect thing was kind of a tangent. I don't believe Sardinas nor Rivera would net us anything meaningful in return at this point, so I mentioned that it would be a far better idea to trade Segura, kind of bringing it back to the topic that has been discussed in this thread and elsewhere.

 

Feel free to continue the discussion on prospects-for-prospects. I just don't think it will happen. If the Brewers decide to hold onto Segura and trade Sardinas or Rivera, they would be add-ins to a bigger trade. If traded on their own, the probable target would be a middle reliever or a "proven" utility guy on the final year of his contract, not a good AAA prospect from another team.

[tmwiese55]

right I never intended for a debate on Segura, was just the most obvious example in front of.

 

To me the whole point comes to this phrase MLB-ready replacements as to why moves like this are risky as we have no idea of these guys are MLB quality. So you trade from this position thinking that but if they don't pan out then you're left with nothing, that's all I was saying. Arcia on the other hand is now considered elite prospect so no one can blame a GM if he trades to open a spot for him. For guys like Sardinas/Rivera who knows. Unless you get something juicy for Segura I'd rather let Sardinas/Rivera/Scooter play 2B and 3B and see who swims.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, again, as far as the minor for minor trades it's simple as this. Why would you trade a young average-ish prospect or older AAAA guy at one position for the same thing at another position? I just don't see how that improves your situation.

[tmwiese55]

http://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/

 

Article on what happened in SD last offseason, seems like a disaster.

[Roderick]

Yea, again, as far as the minor for minor trades it's simple as this. Why would you trade a young average-ish prospect or older AAAA guy at one position for the same thing at another position? I just don't see how that improves your situation.

 

How does that improve your situation? Well if one team has a surplus of one position and a deficit at another and the other team has the opposite position - it seems obvious that both teams can help themselves in a trade.

 

But, I understand why GMs don't trade minor leaguers for minor leaguers more than likely to save face on losing out on the trade.

 

I would love it if the Brewers could find a comparable AAA 3B in value to Sardinas/Rivera and try to swap. The Brewers have surplus SS they need a 3B. Even if that 3B's unmet ceiling is just major league average, and he won't get there in 2016, at least you have some hope for some competence at the positon, and are only paying min.wage to find out.

[monty57]

http://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/

 

Article on what happened in SD last offseason, seems like a disaster.

 

Got in trouble trying to spike fan interest by trading "unknown" prospects for "name" veterans, trading a long-term strategy for immediate gratification. What it took the Brewer management several years to accomplish, the Padres did in one offseason.

[jerichoholicninja]

http://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/

 

Article on what happened in SD last offseason, seems like a disaster.

 

Got in trouble trying to spike fan interest by trading "unknown" prospects for "name" veterans, trading a long-term strategy for immediate gratification. What it took the Brewer management several years to accomplish, the Padres did in one offseason.

 

I think we should wait more than half a season to determine is what Preller did was a disaster. I'm pretty sure Justin Upton is the only guy they acquired that is gone after this season so it's not like they gutted the farm system for only 1 season.

[Baldkin]

http://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/

 

Article on what happened in SD last offseason, seems like a disaster.

 

Got in trouble trying to spike fan interest by trading "unknown" prospects for "name" veterans, trading a long-term strategy for immediate gratification. What it took the Brewer management several years to accomplish, the Padres did in one offseason.

 

I think we should wait more than half a season to determine is what Preller did was a disaster. I'm pretty sure Justin Upton is the only guy they acquired that is gone after this season so it's not like they gutted the farm system for only 1 season.

 

 

It was an unmitigated disaster. From the article:

 

Add up the damage and it’s staggering. In one offseason, the Padres traded away one of the best catchers in baseball (Grandal); an above-average starting pitcher (Hahn); an above-average corner outfielder (Seth Smith); an above-average center fielder (Maybin); and pretty much their entire farm system. Per Baseball America, the Padres traded away their no. 1 (Wisler), no. 2 (Turner), no. 4 (Ross), no. 6 (Fried), no. 9 (Eflin), no. 10 (Jace Peterson), no. 15 (Bauers), no. 16 (Mallex Smith), no. 21 (Dustin Peterson), no. 23 (Burch Smith), and no. 30 (Barbato) prospects, along with the 41st pick in the draft.

 

In return, they got one of the best young outfielders in the sport, who can’t stay healthy, in Wil Myers. They got one year of Justin Upton. They got Matt Kemp and his bloated contract. They got a good young catcher in Derek Norris who isn’t nearly as good as the young catcher they traded. They got two very good relievers in Brandon Maurer and Craig Kimbrel. They inherited the misfortune of playing Will Middlebrooks.

 

The Kimbrel trade already looks like one of the worst trades any team has made in years — and it wasn’t the worst trade the Padres made this winter. That would be the Kemp trade, in which they took on a contract the Dodgers were desperate to unload5 and gave up arguably their most valuable commodity in Grandal. Years from now, the trade for Justin Upton might look as bad as these two. If it doesn’t, the trade for Wil Myers might.

[tmwiese55]

That quote doesn't even mention having to pay BJ Upton's contract. This pails in comparison to what the brewers traded away that panned out (Escobar, Cain, Odorrazi, Brantley). Especially when you factor in it took Brantley 6 years to do much and that only one of he and Cain could have played. And that Escobar was comparably replaced by Segura. The article also got into what the prospects were doing in the minors in their new spots, more guys will likely make impacts.

 

A key for them will be what they get back from Upton at the deadline, have to trade him really and they need to nail the prospects back to make up for what they gave up. After that, yes give it another year and hope the pitching does better next year with some infield D upgrades or picking up a true CF to take Upton's spot.

[MadScientist]

The worst part of the Padres' disaster is that it happened one season early. It would have been so much better if the Brewers could have gotten in on the raid of the Padres farm system.

[ebmackenzie]

One reason that we will NOT be open for business is that the Brewers rely on ticket/merch sales to cover operating costs more than other teams. If the team is gutted and we end up starting Clarks and Schafers everywhere as we tank then attendance will plummet too. It's a miracle that it hasn't already. Fans here that are imagining trades all over the place and a roster that starts 7 guys with .650 OPS aren't the ones that pay for things.

 

To this I say that Parra, KRod, ARamirez, and Cotts will be moved, but Lind, CGomez, and Segura won't be. This will allow players like Lucroy to feel better about staying here as he has never done a full blow up/ overhaul here, and it doesn't sound like he'd want to. It also allows less diehard fans to have a glimmer of hope for the future of contention, offer some salary relief, shift some non-returning parts for prospects, and not have the passive fans shift into Bucks mode so soon.

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2015/7/16/8978329/brewers-trade-deadline-rumors-roster-potential-august

 

will never happen...