Open for business (part 2)

[MrTPlush]

I don't think this is a typical Brewers team. The last couple of years we have had a positive outlook where with the right moves some magic could happen. However this is beyound that point. Before the season I could see a way to compete in 2016, but we are garbage. I don't think the Brewers plan on trying to compete next year at all. It sounds like they fully plan to trade Gomez so that should tell you all you need to know about next year's plan. Maybe they hold on to Segura/Lucroy another year and see what happens in 2016. See if enough looks good enough to compete in 2017. If not I'd expect them to hit the block.

 

2016 is quite the afterthought if you ask me.

[narwhalattack]

I just don't see how Doug and/or Mark can honestly be looking at this team right now and saying, "Yeah, with a couple tweaks, we can be right back in the thick of things next season." I mean, really, what positive signs are we seeing on the field? We don't have a single starter batting over .300, we don't have a starting pitcher with more than four wins, and our lowest ERA guy is Jimmy Nelson with a 4.34 ERA. What is there to really "build around" next year?

 

Ramirez will be gone. Parra will be gone. Lind will probably be fine if we keep him around. Gomez will be in the final year of his contract. Braun and Lucroy will both be another year older and possibly more prone to injury. Segura, Davis, and Gennett aren't exactly All-Stars. Am I just plain missing something here?

 

It's just because of bad luck and injuries. Just a few more established veterans and we'll be in the World Series in no time.

[1992casey]

I've split this topic to aid in board performance.

 

If you're new to this topic, here's the original lead (dated May 1, 2015):

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=32626

 

And here's a link to the last post in that thread (dated June 7, 2015):

 

viewtopic.php?p=944805#p944805

[MrTPlush]

If any team wants to give up some decent prospects for Segura he should be on the next plane out. Even after going back to his 2013 approach he still isn't doing well at the plate. Add that to overrated defense he just isn't that good.

 

Not a guy we should be holding on to like he is some valuable piece to the next contending team.

[paul253]

Just because Melvin says it, doesn't mean it's true. He could sit on them and find no offers in the off-season. There's a certain risk/reward for sitting on your assets too long as well.

 

Melvin has pretty much limited himself to one offseason to get a good offer for Gomez due to his refusal to make him available before then. So like RoCo said he's taking a big risk by just assuming he'll get more in the offseason, especially when teams know it's pretty much a now or never to move him. Sure you can move him at the deadline next year but his value will be even more diminished.

 

Beside, I think his logic behind that argument is flawed. Melvin says that more teams would be interested in the offseason because during the season only teams in the playoff hunt would make a move. While that may be true it ignores the fact that there are plenty of teams who, even during the offseason, aren't looking to add someone like Gomez, who is going to cost a few good prospects. I think there probably may be a few more teams open to it in the offseason but I'm not sure that is enough to outweigh the fact that teams who trade for him during the season get him for the rest of that season plus another full season.

[logan82]

The offseason also gives teams the ability to make more moves to cover a hole that would open up by trading a good player.

[LouisEly]

My point was the converse of RoCo's - just because trades involving those guys don't happen in July doesn't mean they aren't going to happen.

 

Typically contending teams don't go into a season with a known hole at a position. Needs are created typically by injury or unexpected poor performance. That's more likely to happen with pitchers than position players, simply because of quantity. You have five starters and at least six or seven relievers; you only have two guys who can play CF or C, and one is typically a backup who doesn't play very often. What are the odds that a contending team needs a CF, versus the odds of a contending team needing a starter or reliever? It is typically much easier to take on pitching during the season because you can always move a guy into the bullpen and send the worst reliever down/out. Harder to do that with a position player (but OF would be the easiest since you need three of them).

 

The offseason is when teams look at all of their positions and think, are the people we have there adequate? Then, like Logan said, a team that may not have a need might move someone because they get an offer that is too good to pass up. The offseason is also when players become free agents. A contending team may hold on to a guy whose contract is expiring because they are contending, but then have a need when the season is over. Players typically retire in the offseason (Mike Schmidt being one of the exceptions); sometimes it's known like with A-Ram and Jeter, sometimes it isn't. But in those scenarios there may not be a need during the season at the major league level, but will be after the season.

[LouisEly]

Looking at 2014, these are the more well-known position players who were traded during the offseason and in-season:

 

Offseason: Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler, Bourjos/Grichuck/Freese/Salas, Fowler, Seth Smith, Aoki, Trumbo/Eaton (Skaggs involved in that trade), Logan Morrison, Matt Davidson, Drew Stubbs, Logan Forsythe

 

In-season: Ike Davis, Kyle Blanks, Nick Hundley, Chase Headley, Kendrys Morales (more of a dump than a trade), Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Allen Craig, Jonny Gomes/Cespedes, Gerardo Parra, Martin Prado

 

Kind of even, but no real good comps. Cespedes was actually the "prospect" that was in that deal with Lester going to the A's. Craig was part of the Lackey deal. More prospects were involved in the offseason, with Skaggs moving in the Trumbo/Eaton deal, Grichuck for Freese, and Jordan Lyles for Dexter Fowler. And a 3-team deal is more likely to happen in the offseason than in-season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not one trade has happened thus far. I feel like there's initial interest, then that team's scouts return how bad the players must really be so here's the best we'd offer. That offer equals Hanging up on Melvin's end. The fact not one trade has happened yet. I'm highly doubting a single top 100 prospect being shipped to Milwaukee with this team's inability to actually produce of value when teams are considering trading for you. KRod is it and with his contract, again looking at a Michael Blazek type return at best and that's not a top 100 prospect. top 10 of a team's but not top 100 overall.

[TheCrew07]

I don't believe in ever limiting options, but I do believe the Brewers have consistently pinned themselves into a corner following rigid guidelines that are at best dated and at worst were never truly applicable outside of a specific set of seasons.

 

My answer to when to trade any player isn't based anything other than when you're offered the most for him. If we're always waiting for a "sell" season or the last year of a player's contract for the most part we aren't going to get the best possible value back.

 

I've been an advocate of trading just about every player long before the Brewers have been willing.

 

The Brewers aren't progressive, they are predictable, and every other team in the league knows it, we know it. There have always been set criteria for "buying" and "selling" but it's never based on ultimate value, it's been based on team record.

 

Somehow other teams can consistently recycle talent but yet there are posters whom are adamant that those same opportunities haven't existed for the Brewers, or that those other teams were just "lucky". I'm not buying that and never have, I think that line of thinking is just reverse justifying the conclusion and not objectively looking at the data. Or put differently, "I like Melvin and the moves the Brewers have made so there must not have been other alternatives available". There's a psychological principle of saturate, incubate, and illuminate... I believe the reason there is such a divide on these issues is that many posters only have time to look one side of an argument; so instead of taking in all possible data, letting it incubate, and then having those "eureka" moments when they can see the whole truth they don't have information or the time to think these issues all the way to their ultimate conclusion.

 

I posted about the OODA loop a couple of times in the past... these trades, organization building, consistently winning... it's not about following a defined set of rules, it's about being to able to process data and make good decisions quicker than your competition. It doesn't matter if we're talking pitcher vs. batter, or manager vs manager, or gm vs gm, the ability to make decisive decisions quickly is ultimately the key to winning and losing, it forces the opponent to reset and go through the decision making process again. The Brewers knew they wanted to be buyers in 2008 when Gallardo blew out his knee and they made a quick decision, got the absolute best talent available (whether I agreed with the strategy or not), and made the playoffs. When else has the team ever been that decisive about anything?

 

Hell look at all the bad extensions to "producing" players Melvin has tried to hand out over the years, or the "lifetime" contract Attanasio supposedly put on Melvin's desk. There's no demonstrated ability to accurately read the market, or the performance of players, or the performance of the organization. No one with the Brewers has been honest with themselves for a very long time, in the same way that posters here keep trying to pin the blame on the scouting directors. No one drafts perfectly, absolutely no one, some teams are just better at developing talent, others know how to turn chicken crap in chicken salad like Friedman in TB who consistently made trades up the value scale acquiring Kazmir, Garza, and Jackson to build a young rotation, then spinning all of those players off to keep the pitching train moving forward.

 

The Brewers might have been able to do that with pitching recently with Gallardo/Diplan, however look at the logic in what TH wrote yesterday:

 

Who's available, and who's not, from the Brewers

 

FOR BIG SPENDERS

RF Ryan Braun, RHP Matt Garza and RHP Francisco Rodriguez

 

...Garza pitched well enough prior to 2013 to prompt the Brewers to give him a four-year, $50 million deal as a free agent. But he is in the midst of what he recently termed "the worst year of my career" (4-10, 5.52) and also has no-trade protection in his contract, dropping him down the shopping list for teams interested in acquiring starting pitching help...

 

I can absolutely agree that Braun would be in the big spender category, but Garza and K-Rod? The logic is completely flawed and in Garza's case is based on the talent he had prior to 2013. Garza isn't done, but he's clearly on the downside of his career, and there's no way the Brewers are getting what the Cubs got for him in 2013, that's not even close to reasonable.

 

K-Rod gets it done with smoke and mirrors, there no gas left in his FB, he's never had much control, but he still has plus off speed stuff and somehow he mixes his pitches well enough to get outs. However he carries the baggage of multiple years, a mid range salary, and a history of domestic abuse to go with raw tools that are difficult to bet on. He doesn't carry significant value either, the Brewers value him more than other teams do. The only true statement in TH's article regarding K-Rod was:

 

Rodriguez is having a great year (15 for 15 in saves, 1.00 ERA) as the Brewers' closer but is 33 and his style of pitching makes some folks nervous. Hard to argue with his results, though, so we'll see what happens. With Philadelphia shopping Jonathan Papelbon and Cincinnati perhaps making Aroldis Chapman available, there could be strong competition on the closer market

 

Every team is going to value their players the most, I think that's just human nature, but in the game's smallest market we need management that's willing to repeatedly take calculated risks and sell early on players instead of being on the wrong side and continually selling late. It really does need to be as simple as will the young player sign a team friendly extension or not? If the answer is no then the team has to switch gears and start looking to get the most value out of that player, and rarely is the best possible return going to be riding a player out to FA and then resigning that player like what happened with Weeks/Hart and the halfhearted attempt at Fielder.

 

The Brewers need to be willing to sell early and walk away from players a year(s) too soon rather than trying to buy every possible productive season from a player. There are no such things as franchise players, the fans will move on, there's just maximizing the production for the dollar that Brewers are spending in any given year. The only way to do that is to use FA as a stop gap like with Mike Cameron, not to plug holes like the Brewers have done with Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, and Garza. The Brewers have not and will not ever be able to build a 1st division rotation through FA, the Brewers will have to develop or trade for the young key pieces themselves. If we don't have one of the best rotations in the NL, or at least 3 starters that match-up to the best pitchers and an awesome bullpen, then none of the rest of this matters.

[danzig6767]

I just don't want people getting their undies in a bundle if they don't trade Gomez or Lucroy at the deadline. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason. Gomez will have more value at the deadline (still eligible for a comp pick) than in the offseason, but if you think you can get more in the offseason (perhaps due to injury concerns or more buyers) then you don't just take any offer for the sake of making a trade.

It does seem like as each year goes by, there are fewer major trades before the deadline, especially those types involving teams giving up big time prospects.

 

In the past, trade deadline time seemed to fairly often involve quite a few trades and including big names with multiple quality prospects going the other way. Now when trade deadlines come around, there are countless rumors as has always been the case, but fewer actually happen, particularly major trades. Trade deadline time has tended to become much more of a yawnfest than exciting flurries of actual moves. I think there are two reasons for this.

 

1. The rule change involving draft pick compensation. Teams are simply less inclined to give up a lot for a three month rental when they won't get at least a draft pick if/when that rental bolts after the season.

 

2. Most teams really highly value quality prospects today, especially high quality pitching prospects compared to years ago. With the huge rise in player salaries, prospects who pan out well are so incredibly valuable given their cheap paycheck, even to the higher revenue franchises.

 

So sure, here and there contenders will still give up multiple quality prospects for an available veteran at the deadline, but it sure seems to happen less now. Front line starters will always be in demand as teams push for the playoffs and a guy like Hamels especially might be able to draw a bidding war between multiple teams since he's really good and isn't a rental, but i wouldn't be surprised at all if there is another very rumor filled lead up to a then pretty uneventful trade deadline overall for baseball. Hope i'm wrong though and the Brewers can swing some impactful trades.

[MrTPlush]

Not one trade has happened thus far. I feel like there's initial interest, then that team's scouts return how bad the players must really be so here's the best we'd offer. That offer equals Hanging up on Melvin's end. The fact not one trade has happened yet. I'm highly doubting a single top 100 prospect being shipped to Milwaukee with this team's inability to actually produce of value when teams are considering trading for you. KRod is it and with his contract, again looking at a Michael Blazek type return at best and that's not a top 100 prospect. top 10 of a team's but not top 100 overall.

 

You must not know much about the trade deadline. Just so you know almost no trades happen before July...actually there are very little till about July 30th! Even more so major trades are very uncommon early. Almost unheard of a team makes a blockbuster trade early.

 

Now I have no idea what the Brewers will get...it may be dissapointing like you think. BUT just because they haven't made a trade means nothing. No one wants to trade right now.

[Invader3K]

That's true, at least to a point. With the addition of the second Wild Card spot, more teams are holding out, trying to see if they can truly contend, later than they would have in past seasons. Usually things don't start moving until after the All-Star break anyway.

[brewmann04]

I am ok keeping the big trad assets even to the off season.

BUT THEY REALLY MUST GET RID OF GUYS LIKE ARAM COTTS AND BROXTON ,PARRA LOHSE AND GARZA.

Not sure what we get back but anything at this point just move them

[MrTPlush]

I am ok keeping the big trad assets even to the off season.

BUT THEY REALLY MUST GET RID OF GUYS LIKE ARAM COTTS AND BROXTON ,PARRA LOHSE AND GARZA.

Not sure what we get back but anything at this point just move them

 

Well yeah...I think it is pretty much a for sure thing those guys get traded(unless no one wants them). Maybe a couple non long term guys go too. K-Rod is a possibility and Will Smith is a bit under talked about. I could see an attractive offer for Smith.

[tmwiese55]

If they get a good deal for Gomez or Lucroy now you take it but no rush. Can just do it in the offseason and I think that's the best route. Neither has performed this year, mostly due to injury. So if they finish the year strong their value would be at it's peak. All other should be dumped for whatever they can get

[brewcrewdue80]

Not one trade has happened thus far. I feel like there's initial interest, then that team's scouts return how bad the players must really be so here's the best we'd offer. That offer equals Hanging up on Melvin's end. The fact not one trade has happened yet. I'm highly doubting a single top 100 prospect being shipped to Milwaukee with this team's inability to actually produce of value when teams are considering trading for you. KRod is it and with his contract, again looking at a Michael Blazek type return at best and that's not a top 100 prospect. top 10 of a team's but not top 100 overall.

 

You must not know much about the trade deadline. Just so you know almost no trades happen before July...actually there are very little till about July 30th! Even more so major trades are very uncommon early. Almost unheard of a team makes a blockbuster trade early.

 

Now I have no idea what the Brewers will get...it may be dissapointing like you think. BUT just because they haven't made a trade means nothing. No one wants to trade right now.

 

I see 6trades done in the month of June this season. The Brewers have been out of it when June began moreso than any other team. The team has a number of dead contracts they could have worked on moving and instead have just hung on to hoping these players play better to get a c prospect vs a c- prospect while probably shelling out 4-5mil total to play these deadweights. What's a c- prospect or c prospect even worth in money to gamble on? 400k?-650k?

 

How about saving 3-5mil on the month to use in player development/evaluating ? This extra month pretty much determined if you were getting a 400k prospect or a 650k prospect. Slots pays out more money than the odds the Brewers just paid to find 250k more value in a prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

Only guys I see Brewers moving before the deadline are Parra and Cotts. Another hot week from Ramirez and he'll be moved if the Brewers are willing to pay at least half of his remaining contract.

 

Lohse has zero trade value. Teams are waiting for him to be released so they can take a flier for minimum salary.

[JohnBriggs12]

Speaking of Parra, is he now a guy to consider holding on to and giving a QO to in the offseason? I mean, he's only 28 and if he finishes the year with an OPS over .800, he's going to find himself a sought after FA. Isn't the draft pick likely to be as good if not better return than what they can get in a trade? If he takes the offer, they have a quality stopgap in CF or perhaps 1B for essentially what they are paying ARam this year. If he doesn't and his market isn't that hot, they can still sign him to a multi-year deal. That's assuming they deal either Gomez or Lind.

[MrTPlush]

Speaking of Parra, is he now a guy to consider holding on to and giving a QO to in the offseason? I mean, he's only 28 and if he finishes the year with an OPS over .800, he's going to find himself a sought after FA. Isn't the draft pick likely to be as good if not better return than what they can get in a trade? If he takes the offer, they have a quality stopgap in CF or perhaps 1B for essentially what they are paying ARam this year. If he doesn't and his market isn't that hot, they can still sign him to a multi-year deal. That's assuming they deal either Gomez or Lind.

 

I don't think the Brewers risk it. If he somehow kept his current production maybe they could give him a QO and have him decline. However, the risk would be too much. He ends up playing horrible in August/September and suddenly we have a $14mil average corner outfielder.

[LouisEly]

Parra is a good player, but not a $14M player. He's playing well above his career norm - time to sell high. Lots of contenders need another OF, so let the demand bid up his return.

[jerichoholicninja]

Speaking of Parra, is he now a guy to consider holding on to and giving a QO to in the offseason? I mean, he's only 28 and if he finishes the year with an OPS over .800, he's going to find himself a sought after FA. Isn't the draft pick likely to be as good if not better return than what they can get in a trade? If he takes the offer, they have a quality stopgap in CF or perhaps 1B for essentially what they are paying ARam this year. If he doesn't and his market isn't that hot, they can still sign him to a multi-year deal. That's assuming they deal either Gomez or Lind.

 

Good lord no! Parra is in no way worth $14M and not to the 2016 Brewers. And he would be stupid to decline it too.

[Invader3K]

Parra is a good player, but not a $14M player. He's playing well above his career norm - time to sell high. Lots of contenders need another OF, so let the demand bid up his return.

Exactly. He's playing very well, but not someone to build around and not with that kind of salary to the Brewers. I hope Melvin does the smart thing and deals him.

[Boomer5]

1. Parra: No brainer. He is a valued asset right now and is adding by batting lead off. He should bring a very nice prospect back. Not top 50 but certainly top 100.

 

2. ARam: He is a notorious slow starter and is hitting 902 OPS the last 28 days. He plays a difficult to fill position. Should bring back a good return despite his retirement.

 

3. Lohse/Garza: No chance to bring back anything but maybe some salary relief. Might was well keep Garza and see if the next pitching coach can figure him out. Lohse just appears to be done.

 

4. Braun: My favorite trade chip. His extension kicks in and he is worth more to another team than he is to us. Change of scenery would be great for him and we don't need to watch the last 3 years of his extension. In case you think otherwise, remember Soriano. I still think he could bring a great package back since he is still a big name and is on pace for a 30 HR year. He is on a hot streak and still healthy. Time to move him.

 

5. Gomez: Not performing at super star level, but should be a good trade chip. His style of play make him injury prone. I would just assume trade him after a hot streak and move on. I want no part of his next contract. Easily will bring back a top 50.

 

6. KRod: Still a very good closer. He hasnt been in high demand in years when he is a FA, so I wouldn't expect a big time return, but I can still see a late 100 prospect based simply we only need one desperate team.

 

7. Lucroy: The best for last. Could bring back literally ANY prospect back if the Brewers have the guts to trade him. He wont be a catcher when the Brewers are a 95 win team again. Again, do you want to see him with a 9 digit extension when he isn't at catcher?

[Mr Southpaw]

1. Parra: No brainer. He is a valued asset right now and is adding by batting lead off. He should bring a very nice prospect back. Not top 50 but certainly top 100.

 

2. ARam: He is a notorious slow starter and is hitting 902 OPS the last 28 days. He plays a difficult to fill position. Should bring back a good return despite his retirement.

 

3. Lohse/Garza: No chance to bring back anything but maybe some salary relief. Might was well keep Garza and see if the next pitching coach can figure him out. Lohse just appears to be done.

 

4. Braun: My favorite trade chip. His extension kicks in and he is worth more to another team than he is to us. Change of scenery would be great for him and we don't need to watch the last 3 years of his extension. In case you think otherwise, remember Soriano. I still think he could bring a great package back since he is still a big name and is on pace for a 30 HR year. He is on a hot streak and still healthy. Time to move him.

 

5. Gomez: Not performing at super star level, but should be a good trade chip. His style of play make him injury prone. I would just assume trade him after a hot streak and move on. I want no part of his next contract. Easily will bring back a top 50.

 

6. KRod: Still a very good closer. He hasnt been in high demand in years when he is a FA, so I wouldn't expect a big time return, but I can still see a late 100 prospect based simply we only need one desperate team.

 

7. Lucroy: The best for last. Could bring back literally ANY prospect back if the Brewers have the guts to trade him. He wont be a catcher when the Brewers are a 95 win team again. Again, do you want to see him with a 9 digit extension when he isn't at catcher?

 

Pretty much correct on all. I just don't see the Brewers blowing up the whole thing. 2017 roster something like this....

 

C Lucroy

1B Rogers

2B Sardinas

SS Arcia

3B Segura

LF Davis

CF Taylor

RF Braun

 

B N Ramirez 1B

B Y Rivera IF

B Wren OF

B Reed OF

B Some Catcher

 

SP Peralta

SP Nelson

SP Fiers

SP Jungmann

SP Cravy

 

CL Jeffress

CL W Smith

RP Goforth

RP Thornburg

RP Pena

RP Magnifico

RP B Suter

 

That leaves Parra, ARam, Gomez, KRod and our two awful starting pitchers to get us some prospects.