Open for business (part 2)

[3and2Fastball]

This has been a brutally frustrating team to root for in the last few years and will be even moreso if they extend or hold onto Lucroy simply for ticket revenue

[trwi7]

I know a lot of you don't like him but Keith Law said this in his chat yesterday.

 

 

Fred Garvin (NYC)

 

Keith, is there any hope for the Brewers. I know you liked their draft, but what can they realistically do to restock the roster and farm system yet this year via trade, and how aggressive do you think they should be in that regard?

 

Klaw (2:28 PM)

 

Trade everybody. Segura, Braun, Gomez, Aramis, Garza, Lohse, any reliever. Ship them all out for the best possible returns, near- or long-term. And follow the Astros' general path in talking honestly to the fan base about what's happening. You can sell your fans on a rebuild. They're smarter than teams often think, as long as you're managing your messages.

 

Completely agree with this. You can't just go into a rebuild and say nothing to the fan base but if you communicate to them that you're going to build up the farm system and keep salary flexibility for trades that may come up (they could now even elude to the Toussaint deal) fans will at least understand. They may not like it but they'll understand where you're coming from and why you're doing it.

[FVBrewerFan]

It would help to be honest with the players as well. I have a feeling that had something to do with the start they had- getting mixed messages from management. That's what happens when you trade Yo, but then go sign Lind. Players are professionals and will act accordingly if they know the plan for the team, know if they are being shopped, etc.

[logan82]

They traded Estrada for Lind.

[Invader3K]

I refuse to believe there are more than 4 people on earth that say "Let's go the Brewers game tonight so we can watch Jonathan Lucroy." Baseball fans will go because we love MLB, and also realize they are rebuilding. Casual fans go to tailgate, or they have a company even, reunion, BP, etc. Sorry, I don't buy Lucroy is some sort of "face of the franchise" that can't be replaced.

 

No Catching prospects? True, then make sure you get a catcher in the deal- or in other deals for Gomez, Lind, etc.

 

I agree. Lucroy is a very good player, and seems to be fairly popular...but is he a "draw" like Braun was pre-PED scandal, or Prince Fielder when he was here? No, sorry, he's not.

[Thurston Fluff]

I refuse to believe there are more than 4 people on earth that say "Let's go the Brewers game tonight so we can watch Jonathan Lucroy." Baseball fans will go because we love MLB, and also realize they are rebuilding. Casual fans go to tailgate, or they have a company even, reunion, BP, etc. Sorry, I don't buy Lucroy is some sort of "face of the franchise" that can't be replaced.

 

No Catching prospects? True, then make sure you get a catcher in the deal- or in other deals for Gomez, Lind, etc.

 

 

That depends on how merchandise sales are divided up. Is it connected to the number of sales each team's gear sells or is it split evenly throughout the league no matter how many each team sells? I ask because if the team gets a larger percentage of it's player's gear then there is more to it than just signing him to get people to go to the games.

[splitterpfj]

I know a lot of you don't like him but Keith Law said this in his chat yesterday.

 

 

Fred Garvin (NYC)

 

Keith, is there any hope for the Brewers. I know you liked their draft, but what can they realistically do to restock the roster and farm system yet this year via trade, and how aggressive do you think they should be in that regard?

 

Klaw (2:28 PM)

 

Trade everybody. Segura, Braun, Gomez, Aramis, Garza, Lohse, any reliever. Ship them all out for the best possible returns, near- or long-term. And follow the Astros' general path in talking honestly to the fan base about what's happening. You can sell your fans on a rebuild. They're smarter than teams often think, as long as you're managing your messages.

 

Completely agree with this. You can't just go into a rebuild and say nothing to the fan base but if you communicate to them that you're going to build up the farm system and keep salary flexibility for trades that may come up (they could now even elude to the Toussaint deal) fans will at least understand. They may not like it but they'll understand where you're coming from and why you're doing it.

 

I agree with this. In my opinion, "the rebuild" has already begun, with more talent in the farm system than the team has had in years, but they should push hard in that direction.

 

My biggest hope for this season is a hot streak from Gomez prior to the deadline, when it would seem his trade value will be its highest. Guys like Lohse and Aramis aren't going to get much in return, but Gomez will.

 

Guys like Segura and Lucroy - you bet, make them available. They're a little bit different, I don't think the trade value of either will decrease much if they're kept into the winter, but I'd deal them both before the start of next season.

 

There will be young talent ready to come up sometime next year, with more behind them for the following years - it must makes sense to back them with more like them, rather than keeping one or two guys, for the sake of keeping one or two guys.

[nate82]

I still don't see Gomez being traded at the deadline. I see Gomez being traded in the off season and hopefully the Brewers can get either an Upton like deal or a Heyward like deal.

[trwi7]

“The one thing about the Brewers that you hear is that, yes, they’re wiling to talk to teams…I think the way that you and I would do things if we were running a strat-o-matic teams is we would say ‘we’ll listen on all our guys, give us your best offer on all our guys.’ Where on their end it’s sorta like ‘well, we’ll talk about that guy, but nah, you know.’ Other teams are getting some of that. So that, yeah, you can talk about their lesser guys, but if I’m in their shoes you got Carlos Gomez who’s under contract through 2016, I mean, my goodness you could put him out there. Tell me a team like the Mets right now you couldn’t theoretically come up with some sort of a match and is that a guy they could desperately use right now. Uh, absolutely.”

 

“Also you mention Francisco Rodriguez, the one thing I’ve heard from several teams is, in this post Ray Rice era, they’re scared away by the history of domestic violence.”

 

http://disciplesofuecker.com/olney-on-brewers-well-talk-about-that-guy-but-nah-you-know/23347

[brewmann04]

Brewers fo is a joke they will not be trading anyone of value. I also believe teams are not going to trade for our junk

[MillerParkSouth]

I'm very concerned that Mark A is going to go full blown Herb Kohl on us and we'll be shooting for 75 wins every year so that we can show the fans we're "trying to compete".

[brewmann04]

Maybe Mark should listen to fans the fans don't want to watch this team and rather see this team rebuild. When the fans stop accepting this maybe he listen

[superfly]

I don't think Lucroy would even dip to being as bad as Joe Mauer, due to having a little bit more power...but I don't think it makes much sense.

 

 

 

For whatever it's worth, I think Joe Mauer has been hit by concussions similar to Justin Morneau. Ever since he took those balls to the face and mysteriously sat out for a long time a year or two ago he has not looked like the same player. It might be hard to compare him to Lucroy in that regard.

[GAME05]

"‘well, we’ll talk about that guy, but nah, you know.’ Other teams are getting some of that."

 

If that is actually true (and who really knows) than that's unacceptable. The Brewers have had since the end of April to make a decision on what they really want to do, just who should move and their lowest acceptable offer. If true, than what has Melvin been doing for two months?

 

With a big rebuild typically comes a new GM. It's getting a good big conspiratorial, but if there is any "We can totally compete next year with what we've got" going on, could that really be more about saving one's own skin? If DM still has his job in November I'll probably take that as a sign that we're going to keep the status quo and not do much besides adding another 33 y/o starter and Lind2.0 at 3b.

[MillerParkSouth]

I don't think it's DM anywhere as much as its Attanasio, which is an even bigger problem.

[trwi7]

I don't think it's DM anywhere as much as its Attanasio, which is an even bigger problem.

 

I think it's probably both but more Mark than Doug, which as you said is a much bigger problem than it just being Doug. If it's just Doug he can be fired and we can find another guy. If it's Mark, we're unfortunately stuck until he sells, much like Kohl.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm very concerned that Mark A is going to go full blown Herb Kohl on us and we'll be shooting for 75 wins every year so that we can show the fans we're "trying to compete".

 

I feel like that has already happened and is happening right now

 

Prove me wrong Brewers!

 

We could get some significant prospects for Gomez, Braun & Lucroy

[Invader3K]

I just don't see how Doug and/or Mark can honestly be looking at this team right now and saying, "Yeah, with a couple tweaks, we can be right back in the thick of things next season." I mean, really, what positive signs are we seeing on the field? We don't have a single starter batting over .300, we don't have a starting pitcher with more than four wins, and our lowest ERA guy is Jimmy Nelson with a 4.34 ERA. What is there to really "build around" next year?

 

Ramirez will be gone. Parra will be gone. Lind will probably be fine if we keep him around. Gomez will be in the final year of his contract. Braun and Lucroy will both be another year older and possibly more prone to injury. Segura, Davis, and Gennett aren't exactly All-Stars. Am I just plain missing something here?

[Oldcity]

One of the biggest fan favorites of the last 15 years was freaking Lyle Overbay, because he has a long o in his name. Some were even mad when he was traded to make room for Prince Fielder. Fans don't need much to find fan favorites.

 

To the people saying, "You can't just trade all your good players," yes, of course you can. And they should. Then like Law was saying, you explain the reasoning to your fanbase. Attanasio is clearly worrying about attendance if they blow it up, but I'm not sure why. He can just slash payroll for a couple years to offset the loss of attendance.

 

The Brewers' rebuild will not take as long as Houston's or Chicago's if it is executed well. When those teams started their rebuilds, they didn't have trade pieces anywhere near as valuable as Gomez and Lucroy, or even Segura. They were strapped with guys like Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and at least the Brewers' version of that contract is still producing somewhat.

[Pugger]

One of the biggest fan favorites of the last 15 years was freaking Lyle Overbay, because he has a long o in his name. Some were even mad when he was traded to make room for Prince Fielder. Fans don't need much to find fan favorites.

 

To the people saying, "You can't just trade all your good players," yes, of course you can. And they should. Then like Law was saying, you explain the reasoning to your fanbase. Attanasio is clearly worrying about attendance if they blow it up, but I'm not sure why. He can just slash payroll for a couple years to offset the loss of attendance.

 

The Brewers' rebuild will not take as long as Houston's or Chicago's if it is executed well. When those teams started their rebuilds, they didn't have trade pieces anywhere near as valuable as Gomez and Lucroy, or even Segura. They were strapped with guys like Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and at least the Brewers' version of that contract is still producing somewhat.

 

Because the team is playing poorly attendance is already declining. He should be looking long term here. If we can improve the farm and the big club so we win more consistently he won't have to worry about attendance. Brewer fans have shown if you put a decent product on the diamond they'll show up.

[yfinn6]

One of the biggest fan favorites of the last 15 years was freaking Lyle Overbay, because he has a long o in his name. Some were even mad when he was traded to make room for Prince Fielder. Fans don't need much to find fan favorites.

 

To the people saying, "You can't just trade all your good players," yes, of course you can. And they should. Then like Law was saying, you explain the reasoning to your fanbase. Attanasio is clearly worrying about attendance if they blow it up, but I'm not sure why. He can just slash payroll for a couple years to offset the loss of attendance.

 

The Brewers' rebuild will not take as long as Houston's or Chicago's if it is executed well. When those teams started their rebuilds, they didn't have trade pieces anywhere near as valuable as Gomez and Lucroy, or even Segura. They were strapped with guys like Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and at least the Brewers' version of that contract is still producing somewhat.

 

Because the team is playing poorly attendance is already declining. He should be looking long term here. If we can improve the farm and the big club so we win more consistently he won't have to worry about attendance. Brewer fans have shown if you put a decent product on the diamond they'll show up.

 

Hence the issue. 75 - 80 wins might be considered decent; decent enough to at least keep enough casual fans in the park, but not decent enough to actually compete for anything. It's baseball purgatory to be stuck in that range of wins. You won't be able to draft in the top-5, and it will take a team full of career years to get into the playoffs. Yuck.

[LouisEly]

I just don't want people getting their undies in a bundle if they don't trade Gomez or Lucroy at the deadline. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason. Gomez will have more value at the deadline (still eligible for a comp pick) than in the offseason, but if you think you can get more in the offseason (perhaps due to injury concerns or more buyers) then you don't just take any offer for the sake of making a trade.

 

Even guys like Lohse and Ramirez can still clear waivers in August and could still have a trade happen after July 31st.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I just don't want people getting their undies in a bundle if they don't trade Gomez or Lucroy at the deadline. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason. Gomez will have more value at the deadline (still eligible for a comp pick) than in the offseason, but if you think you can get more in the offseason (perhaps due to injury concerns or more buyers) then you don't just take any offer for the sake of making a trade.

 

Even guys like Lohse and Ramirez can still clear waivers in August and could still have a trade happen after July 31st.

 

 

Just because Melvin says it, doesn't mean it's true. He could sit on them and find no offers in the off-season. There's a certain risk/reward for sitting on your assets too long as well.

[GAME05]

I just don't see how Doug and/or Mark can honestly be looking at this team right now and saying, "Yeah, with a couple tweaks, we can be right back in the thick of things next season."

 

Probably with the same reasoning a lot of us use to project the team heading into every season. Not saying I'm innocent of it, but a lot of us tend to project most everyone with career norms and then 3-4 breakout players. I doubt if I looked back we'd see a lot of people projecting Scooter being sent down, ARam not getting out of his usual April slump or the starting staff imploding. I imagine it's also easy enough for someone to convince themselves that last year was actually the statistical norm and this year is actually the aberration.

 

I also wonder what effect the extra playoff team has on decision-making now that it's easier to slip into the playoffs with a so-so team, that suddenly the strategy is to cross your fingers for one more breakout player instead of taking the long road to build a genuinely better team. Maybe April-August last season hurt more than it helped.

[Invader3K]

I just don't want people getting their undies in a bundle if they don't trade Gomez or Lucroy at the deadline. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason. Gomez will have more value at the deadline (still eligible for a comp pick) than in the offseason, but if you think you can get more in the offseason (perhaps due to injury concerns or more buyers) then you don't just take any offer for the sake of making a trade.

 

Even guys like Lohse and Ramirez can still clear waivers in August and could still have a trade happen after July 31st.

 

 

Just because Melvin says it, doesn't mean it's true. He could sit on them and find no offers in the off-season. There's a certain risk/reward for sitting on your assets too long as well.

Has anyone done any analysis of that? It's probably hard to quantify. It does seem like pitching is usually more in demand mid-season than position players, though.