Open for business (part 2)

[reillymcshane]

Time for the club to win 10 in a row and make management think we still have a chance.

 

Blue font off.

 

I am a bit tired of hearing this. It has been made pretty clear through rumors and the things that Doug Melvin has said that this team is selling at the deadline. Not only that but rebuild has been thrown out there a lot. How extreme is anyone's guess, but the joke about stringing together wins and thinking they have a chance is a bit annoying at this point.

 

The only thing ten wins in a row will do is make management think they might get more than a bag of balls for the players they trade.

I wish I had our optimism. Sorry if my pessimism is annoying, but I have seen so few decisions aimed at building a team for long term success over the past few years. It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about getting back into the playoff race.

 

Saying we are going to be sellers at the deadline can mean a whole lot of different things.

 

My biggest fear is that management thinks we can contend in 2016. They hang on to everyone who should be dealt, then deal our players set to leave at the end of the year and call it rebuilding.

 

Obviously, I think this team needs a big shakeup. I'm afraid any decisions we make will be half hearted, and lead to extended mediocrity.

 

 

-----

Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=944805#p944805

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=32626

[Invader3K]

My biggest fear is that management thinks we can contend in 2016. They hang on to everyone who should be dealt, then deal our players set to leave at the end of the year and call it rebuilding.

 

Obviously, I think this team needs a big shakeup. I'm afraid any decisions we make will be half hearted, and lead to extended mediocrity.

 

That is my biggest fear as well...they'll deal Parra, Ramirez, and maybe Lohse or Garza (if anyone will take them) in July. Then during the off-season, they sign an aging veteran 2B to platoon with Scooter, acquire a veteran starting pitcher, and then claim that they've "retooled" for 2016.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I don't think they would have traded Gallardo or been bringing up all these minor leaguers if they weren't retooling. In a perfect world they are trading everyone and the furniture for a half a dozen top 50 prospects, but you can't force a market that doesn't exist.

[superfly]

My biggest fear is that management thinks we can contend in 2016. They hang on to everyone who should be dealt, then deal our players set to leave at the end of the year and call it rebuilding.

 

Obviously, I think this team needs a big shakeup. I'm afraid any decisions we make will be half hearted, and lead to extended mediocrity.

 

I hope you're prepared for this, because it's what is going to happen IMO. With Braun looking more and more like the 2007-2012 version of Ryan Braun, the window has not shut for playoff/World Series contention (in the eyes of management).

 

Segura is going to get traded, look at how we are assembling a small army of high upside risk specimens in the middle infield with Hector Gomez, Luis Sardinas, Hernan Perez, etc along with Orlando Arcia progressing pretty quickly. The chess board has been maneuvered to allow such a scenario.

 

Suggesting Jon Lucroy gets traded though is ridiculous...regardless of whether it should happen or not he is viewed as a cornerstone here for the long term. I predict he will be resigned when he reaches FA as well.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if Gomez really has the trade value / value on the open market we think he does. The constant stupid baserunning decisions, wild swings, and forgetting how many outs there are on a seemingly routine basis have to degrade him to some point in the eyes of other teams. I wonder if he will be resigned as well at some point, at a value lower than we think he should command. Don't get me wrong, I want him traded, but it's something i've been pondering.

[bill hAll Star]

traded, look at how we are assembling a small army of high upside risk specimens in the middle infield with Hector Gomez, Luis Sardinas, Hernan Perez, etc

 

Define "high upside."

[reillymcshane]

I don't think they would have traded Gallardo or been bringing up all these minor leaguers if they weren't retooling. In a perfect world they are trading everyone and the furniture for a half a dozen top 50 prospects, but you can't force a market that doesn't exist.

The thing with the Gallardo deal is that it's the first time we dealt an established veteran player for prospects since (I'm guessing) Lyle Overbay. Maybe we could consider Gomez a 'prospect' - since he was still so young and developing. Perhaps I'm forgetting someone.

 

I should point out that the Gallardo deal happened because the club felt they had a replacement in Nelson. I suspect a big reason we haven't dealt established vets for prospects is that we've rarely had replacements ready to step in - which is an indictment against our player development department.

[bill hAll Star]

What about the Greinke and K-Rod trades? I know they were giving up on that season but those were established vet sell-offs.

[TheCrew07]

K-Rod has never brought back anything of value but I believe he was referring to off-season trade. Fielder replacing Overbay and now Nelson replacing Gallardo.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

If Peralta and Nelson were having great seasons I would worry, but how can they possibly think they can contend in 2016 with the rotation they will have next year? Heck, if Peralta repeated the season he had in 2014 and Nelson was close to that you may even be able to convince me they could retool and compete next year.

 

Instead, you have a rotation that is almost impossible to predict, and big question marks at LF and 3B. There's no way they can believe the team can compete with the rotation so up in the air. Can they?

[reillymcshane]

What about the Greinke and K-Rod trades? I know they were giving up on that season but those were established vet sell-offs.

Greinke's trade was really a dump of a player that was obviously going to leave in a couple of months - combined with the fact the team was out of the race. It made no sense to keep him. If he had another year on his contract, there's no way we deal him.

 

K-Rod was pretty much in the same boat as Greinke. He was likely leaving at the end of the season, so it was keep him for two more months and get nothing, or get what we could. Plus, the return was pretty minimal.

 

Both trades are, technically examples of us dumping vets, but the team really wasn't making much of a hard choice here. In the end, the only reason these guys were dealt was the team was doing poorly, and their contracts were up.

[reillymcshane]

 

If Peralta and Nelson were having great seasons I would worry, but how can they possibly think they can contend in 2016 with the rotation they will have next year? Heck, if Peralta repeated the season he had in 2014 and Nelson was close to that you may even be able to convince me they could retool and compete next year.

 

Instead, you have a rotation that is almost impossible to predict, and big question marks at LF and 3B. There's no way they can believe the team can compete with the rotation so up in the air. Can they?

People can talk themselves into a lot of things.

 

Here's what I could pitch to you:

 

1. You shed the salaries of A-Ram, Cotts, Broxton, Lohse, Parra - that's roughly $45M. Raises (either by existing contracts or arbitration) will likely eat up $20M (Braun, K-Rod, Maldonado, Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Smith (I think he's arby eligible next year), Peralta). That leaves you with $25M to spend - assuming spending is roughly at the same level as this year. You have significant holes at 3B (A-Ram), and the rotation (Lohse), plus the bullpen might need an arm or two. And some depth signings might be in order.

 

2. Fill your holes with one-year (maybe two-year) contracts (Aaron Harang or Dave Freese, for example), and you're not incurring too much long term commitments.

 

3. Count on good health - no major injuries like Lucroy has experienced this year. And guys who have had injury issues in past manage to avoid them (Lind, Braun, Gomez).

 

4. Count on improvements from young players - Davis, Sardinas, Peralta, Nelson, etc.

 

5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc.

 

6. Hope a couple of rookies or cheap signings pan out (sort of like Blazek emerging this year as a solid bullpen part).

 

This means the club is a lot like this year's team. As noted, it's counting on rebounds and improvements from some players, and good health.

 

The rotation (Garza, Fiers, Nelson, Peralta, FA guy, plus Cravy, Jungmann and Wagner as fallbacks) could be average-ish. If the bats pick up, the hitting could be better than average. Add in a little luck, and it's a team with a shot at the Wild Card.

 

Also, I can argue that if things don't go well in the first half, you can look to place key vets - Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Segura, etc. - on the trade block at this time. Yes, the return probably isn't as good as if you did the deal this summer or in the off season, but you could still get some decent players.

 

Did I convince you?

 

Personally, I think too many stars have to align for the team to be a contender next year. It's not impossible, just improbable, in my opinion.

[monty57]

Personally, I think too many stars have to align for the team to be a contender next year. It's not impossible, just improbable, in my opinion.

 

I agree, and think the small chance of success next year is far outweighed by the diminished return we'd receive from our "trade chips."

 

If we trade Gomez this season (with 1.5 years left on the contract and the option to offer a QO), I'd look at a top 25 guy and another top 100 guy coming back in trade. If we wait until next year's trade deadline, we probably get something like the Greinke return (a top 100 guy and two guys with potential but some big warts). Is raising the playoff odds from "none" to "highly unlikely" worth giving up that top 25 prospect?

 

That's the big thing for me. We have some guys we could trade to make the "rebuild/retool" go a lot quicker. If we hold them, we may not have guys in a couple years who will have that trade value. If that's the case, then we'll need to wait until we get 4-5 years of top 10 draft slots to get the talent into the system, and that's not a fun 4-5 years to watch at the MLB level. Furthermore, if we continue to add just enough to sell tickets, but keep us out of the top 10 draft positions, we'll never get a good farm, and therefore never have loads of cheap talent arriving at the MLB level to make us a legitimate playoff team. We'll be the Cubs of the 70's, turning a profit off of a few "name" players, with the "June swoon" knocking us out of playoff contention.

[RobertR]

5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc.

 

 

What's Maldonado's form? A low .600s OPS? He had a nice 2012, but the trendline is bad since then.

 

I'm not sure we've established Scooter's level yet either.

[reillymcshane]

5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc.

 

 

What's Maldonado's form? A low .600s OPS? He had a nice 2012, but the trendline is bad since then.

 

I'm not sure we've established Scooter's level yet either.

Maldonado had a .700+ OPS in 2012 and 2014. If he could even get to a mid .650 OPS its way more than what he's doing now. Getting in better shape might help.

 

I think Scotter hitting .280-.290 isn't crazy. It might not happen, but these are the kinds of things the Brewers need to happen.

[TheCrew07]

I think if platooning Scooter could hit that well from an AVE standpoint, but I don't see it as a full time player, I never have.

 

He's a nice stop gap player who can provide value for cheap but he's never going to be a guy we should look to build around.

[adambr2]

Assuming we make the moves that need to be made, 2016 will likely be a worse season than this one.

 

If they try to accelerate the rebuild, they will only end up making it worse. I would not plan on putting a contending team back out on the field until at least 2018, and that is best case scenario. Don't shoot for 2017. Take your lumps and take your time with this, because it needs to be done right. I'd rather wait another year then tread water through mediocrity for another 5 because we tried to rebuild too quickly..

 

The biggest mistake we could make when drafting and trading away assets this year is valuing MLB-ready over upside.

[monty57]

He's a nice stop gap player who can provide value for cheap but he's never going to be a guy we should look to build around.

 

That pretty much applies to the Brewer roster right now. We have Braun forever, but other than him, the only player on the current roster who might merit an extension is Peralta, who hits arby next year and will be a free agent at age 29.

 

Everyone else is either short-term (Lohse, Ramirez, Gomez, Lind, and Lucroy), not good enough to merit an extension (Davis, Segura, Perez, Rogers, Sardinas, Gennett), are under "team control" until they're past their prime (Fiers, Nelson), or are bench/bullpen players who I don't consider in discussions about "players we're going to build around."

 

I love the concept of offering extensions to players in their pre-arby years. The Brewers just need more players worthy of that offer. The way it looks right now, even if we don't "rebuild/retool," this team will probably look vastly different two or three years from now than it does today.

[monty57]

2016 will likely be a worse season than this one.

 

We're on pace to be something like 52-110. I don't think it's possible to be much worse.

 

I do agree with the premise of the rest of your post though :-)

[reillymcshane]

Here's how to could move forward.

 

Accept the rebuild is going to happen. This year will be tough, so will 2016, probably 2017.

 

With that in mind, the team needs to look at the roster and say who will part of our 2018 team (and beyond). If a player does not show up on that list, they should seriously be considered as trade bait. It doesn't mean we have to deal a player - but the value of keeping him should be seriously debated.

 

The Players

 

Lucroy - He's gone after 2017, so deal him. The team could look at a short extension, but we should realize any extension would likely be Luc in his decline phase (ages 32-34ish). Guys like McCann and Molina are now 31 and 32, respectively, and their ages are starting to show. It doesn't mean they aren't still good players - just not the type they were at age 28.

 

Maldonado - He's a guy the team has signed for low cost through 2016, and would be still controled through 2017 via arbitration. He's not going to bring much in trade, but he could be the kind of player the team holds onto as a way to help nurture our younger pitchers in the next few years. If you extend Lucroy, Maldonado can either be kept or dealt - just depends on what someone will give you for him. Keeping him isn't - at this time - really blocking a younger player or costing us that much.

 

Lind - Deal when you get a good offer. Not sure how much he'll net the team, but unloading his salary is good, and we might be able to get something worthwhile in return.

 

A-Ram - Deal if someone wants him, otherwise he plays out the year and is gone. You probably won't get anything more than a little salary relief.

 

Gomez - Deal when you get a good offer. He'll bring back some quality prospects.

 

Braun - I honestly don't think he has much trade value, and the team would have to swallow a lot of his contract. That said, you never know. He has already been paid the $10 million signing bonus, so that's off the books. If I'm correct, he then makes $15M a year from 2016-20 (there is also $18M deferred over a 10 year run that starts some time in the early 2020s). If the club kicked in $30M of his salary ($5M annually plus I believe there's a $5M buyout for the 2021 season), that gets the outlay to only $10M a year. Perhaps someone would go for that - but it's questionable. Too many injuries and too much bad publicity have made Braun a pariah. No team would want the headache of having him. For that reason, I think he ends up staying in Milwaukee.

 

Parra - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Not going to get you a ton, but it's better than nothing.

 

Segura - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Sardinas can play SS, Scooter goes back to 2B. Segura is only controlled through 2018 - so having him through the rebuild doesn't make a lot of sense when we have alternatives (if Sardinas flops, Rivera is waiting, then Arcia). He's a good - not great - player. So if we can get some quality, younger assets, do it.

 

Lohse - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to kick in some cash to facilitate the deal.

 

Garza - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to kick in some cash to facilitate the deal.

 

Peralta - He's under control through 2018, so he's on the cusp of being part of what we hope is our next good team. That said, he's a quality player, and will hopefully only improve. I would try and get him signed to an extension, buying out a year or two of his free agent years. If you could extend him through 2020, it's only his age 31 season, so he'd still be in his prime years. If he doesn't want to do an extension, look to trade. No point in keeping him if he's only going to leave the moment we look like we might be good.

 

Broxton - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to just cut him.

 

Cotts - Deal or cut if no one wants him.

 

K-Rod - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer.

 

Kintzler - Let go if you can't trade. No point in paying him arby type numbers next season.

 

Khris Davis - He's controlled through 2019, so hang on to him. Let's see if he becomes part of the solution. If he does well, he's our LF for the next few years. Or he could be a valuable trade chip if the club develops a better option.

 

Going Forward

 

C - If you deal Lucroy, you get someone to share the catching duties with Maldonado, who doesn't seem to do well with a big workload. A long term solution is needed, either via trading for a quality prospect or drafting a top player.

 

1B - Rogers and Clark platoon. See how they do into next year. Something has to be done to improve the future of this position. Could be a position move (Braun, Coulter, Roche) or perhaps acquire a prospect in all the myriad of trades we make.

 

2B - Scooter. If he flounders over the next 1.5 years, you move Sardinas or Rivera there (assuming those guys appear worthwhile).

 

SS - Sardinas shows what he can do into 2016, Arcia is ticketed here for 2017 (maybe even a little earlier). If he plays well, Sardinas can slide over the 2B if necessary, or become a valuable trade chip.

 

3B - What a black hole. Need to address via trade/draft.

 

OF - For now, CF goes to Shane Peterson, Logan Schafer, or whatever other mediocre option you have or can dredge up. Plan on Tyrone Taylor for 2017, but that's a tentative plan as Taylor hasn't progressed as a hitter as much as I'd like to see.

 

Braun and Davis man RF and LF. By 2017, you can consider Clint Coulter (might be 2018) and Michael Reed.

 

For pitching, you just have to give people chances. 2016 will be brutal, but more options will emerge by 2017.

 

By 2017 potential starters: Nelson, Fiers, Peralta (unless traded), Cravy, Wagner, Hall, Lopez, Jungmann, Thornburg, Hobbs Johnson

 

By 2017, the potential bullpen is: Jeffress, Smith, Blazek, Knebel, Goforth, Pena, Hellweg, Strong, Magnifico, plus some other guys I don't know much about like Ross and Chapman. Plus there will be some guys moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

 

Then there's the guys you trade for. Gomez and Lucroy will net a couple of top prospects each. Segura will get a good player as well. If you put Peralta on the market, he'll net some quality guys tool. That could easily net you 5-7 top 100 type players - a serious infusion of talent into the system.

 

Lind, K-Rod, Parra, Lohse, Garza and the other short timers probably won't get a ton - but there's still the chance to snag a decent player or two for those guys.

 

But dealing the big players - Gomez, Luc, Segura, maybe Peralta - would land a serious batch of prospects. Some would be ready now, others down the road. But the idea is to load up the system with as high upside talent as possible.

 

I think the concept of high upside players is critical. Getting a #4 starter isn't 'high upside'. Getting a relief pitcher isn't 'high upside'. To become winners, we need all-star type players. At this time, the guys we have coming up aren't all-star caliber - with the exception of maybe Arcia. That doesn't mean some of our current prospects and players can't become all-stars at some point - just that there aren't prospects like Braun and Price coming up through the system. Those are the kinds of players we need to add.

 

The club could also look to fill a few needs - example go after a few marginal prospects like Garin Cechini or Kyle Kubitza - both 3B with limited upside - but guys who might fill the 3B slot for a time.

 

Otherwise, use your high draft position to continue to add high upside guys. And don't be afraid to spend internationally to add more players. With payroll low, we could push some of our money into this area.

 

PS - Sorry for the long post. I was being comprehensive and it just kept going.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

If Peralta and Nelson were having great seasons I would worry, but how can they possibly think they can contend in 2016 with the rotation they will have next year? Heck, if Peralta repeated the season he had in 2014 and Nelson was close to that you may even be able to convince me they could retool and compete next year.

 

Instead, you have a rotation that is almost impossible to predict, and big question marks at LF and 3B. There's no way they can believe the team can compete with the rotation so up in the air. Can they?

People can talk themselves into a lot of things.

 

Here's what I could pitch to you:

 

1. You shed the salaries of A-Ram, Cotts, Broxton, Lohse, Parra - that's roughly $45M. Raises (either by existing contracts or arbitration) will likely eat up $20M (Braun, K-Rod, Maldonado, Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Smith (I think he's arby eligible next year), Peralta). That leaves you with $25M to spend - assuming spending is roughly at the same level as this year. You have significant holes at 3B (A-Ram), and the rotation (Lohse), plus the bullpen might need an arm or two. And some depth signings might be in order.

 

2. Fill your holes with one-year (maybe two-year) contracts (Aaron Harang or Dave Freese, for example), and you're not incurring too much long term commitments.

 

3. Count on good health - no major injuries like Lucroy has experienced this year. And guys who have had injury issues in past manage to avoid them (Lind, Braun, Gomez).

 

4. Count on improvements from young players - Davis, Sardinas, Peralta, Nelson, etc.

 

5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc.

 

6. Hope a couple of rookies or cheap signings pan out (sort of like Blazek emerging this year as a solid bullpen part).

 

This means the club is a lot like this year's team. As noted, it's counting on rebounds and improvements from some players, and good health.

 

The rotation (Garza, Fiers, Nelson, Peralta, FA guy, plus Cravy, Jungmann and Wagner as fallbacks) could be average-ish. If the bats pick up, the hitting could be better than average. Add in a little luck, and it's a team with a shot at the Wild Card.

 

Also, I can argue that if things don't go well in the first half, you can look to place key vets - Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Segura, etc. - on the trade block at this time. Yes, the return probably isn't as good as if you did the deal this summer or in the off season, but you could still get some decent players.

 

Did I convince you?

 

Personally, I think too many stars have to align for the team to be a contender next year. It's not impossible, just improbable, in my opinion.

 

No. But your last post is more in line with where they should be headed. Like you said, we would be counting on a whole lot of things to go right- just like this year. Almost impossible for so many things to go right. But yea, you could take the same approach, get lucky and maybe hit .500.

 

But like you said in your last post, I think they need to give the young arms a shot and see what you have. 2016 should be the year to figure out which young pitchers can stay in the rotation, hopefully Peralta and someone else steps ups to show they can be top of the rotation guys. Also a chance to test drive some young bullpen arms.

[RobertR]

FWIW, simple "plexi-glass principle" would seem to apply to this team. Most projections before the season had the Brewers somewhere in the neighborhood of .500.

 

Obviously, the team isn't going to sniff .500 this year, but this is something of a worst case scenario for the team. But, it gives the team cover to look at the big picture and do the tear down that's due.

[logan82]

5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc.

 

 

What's Maldonado's form? A low .600s OPS? He had a nice 2012, but the trendline is bad since then.

 

I'm not sure we've established Scooter's level yet either.

Maldonado had a .700+ OPS in 2012 and 2014. If he could even get to a mid .650 OPS its way more than what he's doing now. Getting in better shape might help.

 

I think Scotter hitting .280-.290 isn't crazy. It might not happen, but these are the kinds of things the Brewers need to happen.

Maldonado was a pretty poor hitter in the minors as well(.646 OPS). no reason to expect much from him with the bat.

[adambr2]

Maldonado is a very part time player with Lucroy healthy again. Even if he improves his OPS into the .650 range, it won't make much difference at all on our bottom line.

[adambr2]

2016 will likely be a worse season than this one.

 

We're on pace to be something like 52-110. I don't think it's possible to be much worse.

 

I do agree with the premise of the rest of your post though :-)

 

FWIW I think we'll turn around somewhat this year and win about 65-70.

 

With the moves that I hope we'll make this year and our net player losses next year, I'd guess low 60s next year if I had to make a prediction right now.

[monty57]

FWIW, simple "plexi-glass principle" would seem to apply to this team. Most projections before the season had the Brewers somewhere in the neighborhood of .500.

 

Obviously, the team isn't going to sniff .500 this year, but this is something of a worst case scenario for the team. But, it gives the team cover to look at the big picture and do the tear down that's due.

 

Well said. Attanasio was pissed at the end of last season, but even if the front office believed at the time that the team needed to be torn apart, it would have been a hard sell to start a rebuild after the oft-mentioned "152 days in first place."

 

Now, with both the terrible end to last season and the terrible start to this season fresh on everyone's mind, a large part of the fanbase understands that something big needs to be done, and they will be much more accepting of a rebuild.