Is Jorge Lopez a top 100 prospect in all of MILB?

[FVBrewerFan]

I almost ranked Lopez #1 prospect last time we had the poll. Simply because a SP that could be a top of the rotation guy is more valuable than a SS (in my opinion.) But I wanted to wait until I saw a full season from him. Will still be a close call for me next poll.

[wildcat2237]

I spoke to a friend who is a scout in the Angels organization. He recently saw Lopez and said he looks like a young Yovani Gallardo, but with more potential as he is not yet filled out like Gallardo was at this age.

 

Said he thinks Lopez could be a 93-97 guy instead of 92-95.

 

That means top of the rotation potential. Still needs that third pitch, though, to get tough MLB lefties out.

 

He should definitely break the Baseball America top 75 after this season.

[And That]

I'm much less concerned about a 1-2 MPH uptick in velocity than I am about whether or not his change has progressed. As others have said, without a halfway decent change-up, he's probably a #3. If Brewers' development staff can coax an average-to-plus change out of him somehow, then we might have a #1/#2 on our hands.

[Jenkins5]

Ben Sheets managed with mid 90s fastball and deadly curve pretty well.... I'd still consider him more than a #3 despite not using his change up more than 10-15%. Now Sheets is the exception not the rule but if his 1st 2 pitches are that good and he can mix at least an average 3rd pitch to keep hitters off balanced, he can still be a top of rotation guy. He is considered a younger Yo with more potential? I consider Yo no less than a #2 during time here. I have never heard anything bad about his change.... It just seems to be average now. He's 22 and will probably continue to develop it

[And That]

I don't recall seeing anything either way on his change-up this year, which I take to mean as neither a good or bad thing. And it's entirely possible I could have missed something. He's actually done really well against lefties this year, but you'd think that if he had made significant progress with the pitch, it would be out there somewhere.

 

I also don't have my BA Handbook with me at work so I'll look when I get home, but FWIW, MLB Pipeline has his change currently at a 45, and his curve at a 50, so actually neither pitch is really mind-blowing. Fastball is better than either, at 60. Just one observation, but it's out there. As a comparison, Giolito has a 70 CB and 50 CH, Urias has a 65 CB and 60 CH, Glasnow has a 60 CB and 50 CH, and Matz has a 50 CB and 60 CH. Again, as this alludes to, if he is going to move into that top tier of pitching prospect, the change-up has to come along more.

 

I'll be interested to see what the end of season ratings have him at for his offspeed stuff.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think those ratings are behind the times, for sure. And if does have a great curve he doesn't need to throw a change much.

[Jenkins5]

I think those ratings are behind the times, for sure. And if does have a great curve he doesn't need to throw a change much.

 

Was going to say the same, southern league has some talented pitchers & Lopez has the top curveball of them all. Most recent things I have read about him all rave about his curveball. Doesn't sound like a 45 or 50 pitch to me. I'd think 55/60 is closer 65 wouldn't shock me.

 

Most important thing to focus on is how much he has grown reach season! Every season now he has just gotten better and better!

[And That]

The Scoop: Whoever ends up as the Brewers’ new general manager is stepping into a better situation than might appear at first glance. Milwaukee’s farm system is in the best shape it’s been in several years, thanks to some solid trades and steps forward by prospects such as Lopez. Lopez has been excellent all year but he’s been at his best in August. He’s posted an 0.93 ERA in four August starts. Lopez’s stuff doesn’t project as more than a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he’s not far away from being ready for that role.

Reading newspaper reports about a great curveball (and then extrapolating that it must be a 60, maybe 65 pitch) and guessing about his change-up doesn't do much for me. Quotes like this do. I think BA might be underselling a little bit (with Kiley McDaniel overselling), but I think it would be fair to say that he's closer to a #4 than a #2 at this point. Regardless, I'm fine with the #3 label - there's a lot of value there.

[SoCalBrewfan]

To be fair, it's more than newspaper reports; Lopez was rated as top breaking ball in the Southern League by BA in its annual top tools ranking. I'm not sure this is the strongest league for pitching this year, but competition includes Blake Snell, Frankie Montas, Jose Berrios (all were included in the rankings); I've read positive reports of each of those guys' breaking pitches at times, and MLB has them each in the 55-60 range. As always it is tough to piece together a reliable picture of minor league pitchers with many old and conflicting scouting reports out there.

[TheCrew07]

This will be the last time I post this because I don't want to come off as anti-Lopez when I'm not nor have I ever been. In fact because of his son I have a spot for him and his family.

 

Starting pitchers can get by with 2 pitches if the 2 pitches are *that* good, like a Ben Sheets or Michael Wacha, where you're grading both pitches at or near 80. That's not the case here. BA isn't the gospel, nor is any prospecting site, I'm certainly not either. Hell I didn't like Trea Turner as a hitter and all he's done is rake.

 

I want young impact pitching as much as anyone who posts around here, it's my singular focus, but when projecting a pitcher raw stuff is as important as performance. If memory serves Amaury Rivas once made the best tools in a league as well and while pitchers like Snell are also in the league with Lopez, none of those guys are being projected as top of the rotation starters either. League best tools depend on the number of teams in the league and the relative talent contained within the league. As I said Lopez isn't near the level of a Glasnow or Urias who took that award for the EL and TL respectively... Those are guys with first tier FBs and plus to plus plus curves.

 

I would and always will ask patience, he's having a great season... I'd leave it at that and also hope people have realistic expectations.

[yoshii8]

This man has been absolutely dominant and I think has no doubt earned a top 50 spot this season. So exciting to see him out it all together after he was so raw coming out of high school.

[reillymcshane]

A look at Lopez's breakout season by John Sickels:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/22/9334593/prospect-on-the-rise-jorge-lopez-rhp-milwaukee-brewers

 

He doesn't go overboard on Lopez - says he's jumped to at least a B prospect - but he offers him some nice praise. He notes incremental improvements on his change up and curve, but says it's the velocity uptick - from 89-92 last year to 92-95 this year - that has been the big difference. He also says Lopez's mound presence and composure are greatly improved from a few years ago.

[Roderick]

A look at Lopez's breakout season by John Sickels:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/22/9334593/prospect-on-the-rise-jorge-lopez-rhp-milwaukee-brewers

 

He doesn't go overboard on Lopez - says he's jumped to at least a B prospect - but he offers him some nice praise. He notes incremental improvements on his change up and curve, but says it's the velocity uptick - from 89-92 last year to 92-95 this year - that has been the big difference. He also says Lopez's mound presence and composure are greatly improved from a few years ago.

 

So Lopez is a grade B prospect. Do we know approximately how many prospects SB Nation has in the minors who would have a higher rating to put it in perspective?

[reillymcshane]

A look at Lopez's breakout season by John Sickels:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/22/9334593/prospect-on-the-rise-jorge-lopez-rhp-milwaukee-brewers

 

He doesn't go overboard on Lopez - says he's jumped to at least a B prospect - but he offers him some nice praise. He notes incremental improvements on his change up and curve, but says it's the velocity uptick - from 89-92 last year to 92-95 this year - that has been the big difference. He also says Lopez's mound presence and composure are greatly improved from a few years ago.

 

So Lopez is a grade B prospect. Do we know approximately how many prospects SB Nation has in the minors who would have a higher rating to put it in perspective?

Coming into 2015, Sickels had roughly 50 pitchers ranked as B or better. Remember, he said Lopez is 'at least' a B going forward. He has a lot of B ratings. If Lopez is given a B+, that probably puts him in the top 20-25 pitchers.

[molitor fan]

Jorge Lopez is Spanish for Joe Ross

[reillymcshane]

Jorge Lopez is Spanish for Joe Ross

My favorite was long time relief pitcher Jose Mesa - aka Joe Table

[molitor fan]

"It's gonna work"

 

------ Craig Counsell

[JohnBriggs12]

Of all the guys who've debuted this year, Lopez looks like the lone legit candidate to be a 1 or a 2 major league starter. He might need a bit more seasoning but he's close. The key to this team's success over the next 4-5 year is developing or acquiring top of the rotations starters. I think they'll have the talent in the everyday lineup and the rotation depth, but the playoff teams have the studs at the top of their rotations.

[And That]

From what we saw out of Lopez last night, I think it more or less validates the MLB Pipeline ratings. Fastball was good with nice movement and if any of the Pipeline ratings were low, it would have been on the fastball. I don't remember any breaking stuff I was wowed by. His curve was fine, not great, though that was the one pitch he was unintentionally leaving up too much. His change, or at least I think it was his change, was way too hard at 89-90, though I think he did throw one at 86. I suppose the 90 MPH ones could have been 2-seam fastballs. But then he would have only thrown a change-up or two, which is not going to cut it in the big leagues as a starter.

 

There's a lot to be excited about. I love how he was able to move the fastball around and command it (to some degree) even with the movement, and he was getting squeezed by the ump on borderline pitches. He probably gets more called strikes as he matures in the league. But the command of the curve and the way he pitches the change still need seasoning.

[reillymcshane]

From what we saw out of Lopez last night, I think it more or less validates the MLB Pipeline ratings. Fastball was good with nice movement and if any of the Pipeline ratings were low, it would have been on the fastball. I don't remember any breaking stuff I was wowed by. His curve was fine, not great, though that was the one pitch he was unintentionally leaving up too much. His change, or at least I think it was his change, was way too hard at 89-90, though I think he did throw one at 86. I suppose the 90 MPH ones could have been 2-seam fastballs. But then he would have only thrown a change-up or two, which is not going to cut it in the big leagues as a starter.

 

There's a lot to be excited about. I love how he was able to move the fastball around and command it (to some degree) even with the movement, and he was getting squeezed by the ump on borderline pitches. He probably gets more called strikes as he matures in the league. But the command of the curve and the way he pitches the change still need seasoning.

I totally agree. I thought Lopez's performance was encouraging, but he has a ways to go. I do think he looked tired. This was only one game - so I'm not going to go overboard on judgements. There's no need to rush him. Bring him along when he is ready - whether that's some time in 2016 or 2017 or whatever.

[paul253]

I didn't get achance to watch last night. What was his fastball sitting at?

[stoutdude04]

I didn't get achance to watch last night. What was his fastball sitting at?

 

93 to 94. Touched 96 a few times. Some were straight as an arrow and some had some sink.

[rickh150]

Extremely impressive..... I couldn't believe that he was throwing mid 90's consistently (usually 94). I thought his curve was a very good pitch with a lot of bite, actually.

 

I don't know what the Brewers will do with him, though. If 2016 isn't the year for him in the rotation, i would be ok with it. We might not be really competitive anyway.... Save a year and start him in Sept./ 2017.

[clancyphile]

Extremely impressive..... I couldn't believe that he was throwing mid 90's consistently (usually 94). I thought his curve was a very good pitch with a lot of bite, actually.

 

I don't know what the Brewers will do with him, though. If 2016 isn't the year for him in the rotation, i would be ok with it. We might not be really competitive anyway.... Save a year and start him in Sept./ 2017.

 

I think the answer depends on who the Brewers can move in the offseason.

 

If Garza goes, let Lopez go for a spot. The trio of Lopez, Jorge Ortega and Brent Suter have seemingly come out of nowhere to become, I think, legit prospects.. I say get them on the 40-man, and be ready to give them long looks in the rotation.

[trwi7]

From the Southern League chat on BA where they rank the top 20 prospects in each league

 

Eric Rodriguez (Puerto Rico): Jorge Lopez top 100 prospect?

 

Matt Eddy: Yes, definitely.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/southern-league-top-20-prospects-chat/