Is Jorge Lopez a top 100 prospect in all of MILB?

[SRB]

Is he a top 100 in all of MiLB? Maybe prior to the draft. Now that the draft has happened, probably 10 manage to get ranked in the top 100 a few deserving, but others just because they are top 15 picks or so and they push Lopez back out of top 100. Lopez is on the Nelson rise with his numbers. He'll sneak in the top 100 falling in the 80s or so to begin next season should he keep this rate up roughly. For the most part #75-150 rankings in MiLB are like a 75A through the Alphbet 3 times. There's reasons current #75 doesn't belong as are reasons a guy at 150 belongs. It's probably like the Draft in who's a 1st rd pick and who's 2nd-3rd. with 3months to draft day. Who's hot gets in, who's not falls out.

 

I doubt many of this year's draftees will start as top-100 prospects. Maybe the top-5 or so.

[brewcrewdue80]

Only said 10 SRB. I see 15 in MLB's current top 100 from 2014. 10 isn't much to ask of, especially with the numerous graduates this season is having.

[BrewersAA]

Arcia is a lock, Lara I could see if he keeps hitting, Lopez would have to close out this season like he started it and then I'd be on board, Taylor was close before the start of the season so graduations will help him. If Coulter's season continues to match last year's MWL campaign he won't make it, if he finds any kind of hit tool consistency and gets his AVE to level off in the .280s he'd have a shot.

 

Medeiros I don't think so, any scout who's watched him pitch is going to say the same thing I have, he's a project at this time; there's a chance he makes it because of his rate stats but as I've said a couple of times Williams and Ventura control the strike zone much better than Kodi does. He's filthy, but he doesn't have first tier velocity, he's been working 88-93 all season, so people are going to see different ceilings when they watch him, and depending on what day and how many times they've seen him pitch will matter. I could see him being in the back 25 if enough people like him but generally speaking control projects with first tier velocity and plus stuff all the way around are the guys that get rated higher than they probably should be based on ceiling early in their career. He's atypical enough he's very hard to judge it many respects. I honestly believe that Williams is the more advanced pitcher even though he doesn't have Kodi's secondary stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the top 100 because he gets results, but he works mostly up and out of the strike zone, and I just don't think he's going to have to have the same level of success if he moves up with the same control. That's the part of his game that needs to take significant steps forward as he advances.

 

Diplan, it's early for that, he's an international player in Rookie ball. A solid campaign next year at WI could put him on the map for the future. Reed is interesting in so many ways, but I'm not sure he's sexy enough tool wise to make the list, he's a solid across the board type. He's an OBP machine though and everyone loves OBP these days so maybe that would be enough for him to sneak in. Tyler Wagner is going to get some looks as a results orientated pitcher, his tools are MLB average like Kingham from the Pirates, Kingham made the list in the past but hasn't as he's moved up.

 

It's hard to say really because scouts and organizations will value different things. For example I'm control/command orientated where as someone like Colby is more stuff orientated so even on the board here the scouting reports will vary depending on the personal bias of the viewer. Where some see results, maybe a huge FB, or simply believe a player has a superb ceiling because he was drafted high, I see delivery complications so I'm skeptical what they are doing will work in MLB. Our personal biases are going to influence what we see, which is why rating by video becomes so helpful; it's much easier to get a true sense of a players strengths and weaknesses when you can slow down and watch both the good and the bad.

 

I think back to all of the players I've missed on over the years, and not just from the Brewer organization as it is quite easy to get attached to non divisional players in the minors as well. I've tried to learn something different from each those players and situations, self evaluate to see what I missed, and in most cases it was simply not getting to watch enough of the player, I was making statistical observations. That's why I pick my words very carefully and I rarely fawn over a prospect... it's difficult for me to get excited, a player really has to stand out amongst his peers. If he just looks like everyone else in A ball, then he's really not much of a prospect... in fact if he just looks like the average AA player he's not much of a prospect, so I think results need to be put in context of athleticism and talent, and of course vice versa. If you go back and look you'll see I was telling people to remember the name "Mike Trout" in the Link Reports after the Rattlers played 2 series against him... Trout and Segura lit the Rattlers up and in Trout's case he was obviously so much better than everyone else on the field that it was obvious he was going to be special, and I'm not easily impressed.

 

The prospects that skip past WI I'm not going to have a lot to say about because I haven't watched them play, so for example I'm not going to have all that much to offer about Hobbs Johnson other than his BA scouting report:

The Brewers really liked what they saw out of Johnson in 2014. They challenged him to work on his offspeed pitches, and he did so to become a more complete pitcher. He doesn't overpower batters, throwing his fastball in the 88-91 mph range, but he is aggressive and attacks hitters with no fear, pitching ahead in the count with consistency. Johnson's fastball has good sink and he makes a living inducing hitters to beat the ball into the ground. He throws a curve that needs more consistency, but his changeup is aboveaverage and a prime weapon against righthanders. Because of his advanced pitchability and improved command, Johnson could move quickly. The Brewers like his bulldog approach and the way he pitches with confidence, and plan to keep him as a starter for now, but long term he is more likely a reliever. Johnson is a grinder with mental toughness and should jump to Double-A Biloxi in 2015.

 

I think many people will over value our own guys much like the Brewers do, so I try to keep in mind that the top 100 is basically the top 3 prospects from each organization. Of course organizations in the top 10 will have more top 100 prospects than organizations in the bottom 10, and I think the Brewers are moving towards the middle, which is why I settled on the top 3 in my first post. I find Coulter to be the most frustrating prospect in the system but I try not to hold that against him, so maybe I over compensate the other way when I make lists, but like I said after Arcia it's pretty much up in the air who people are going to like and why.

 

I watched 2 series of the sounds Vs. the redhawks in Oklahoma City in 2011 and there was one guy i went to see and one guy who jumped off the page as BY FAR the best player on the field on either team. The guy i mostly went to see was taylor green, who was having a moster year and on the verge of a call up (Super nice guy BTW), i was also excited to see gamel and gindle (both dicks). The guy who was the best player on the field was logan schafer, both offensively and defensively, and it wasnt just me there were people around me at every game ewww and ahhhh-ing. His contact just sound different, better, than anyone elses. He made at least 2 incredible catches a night. He stole bases. He wore out the big 30 ft wall in left center (which is a great power indicator for a left-hander). Both guys ended up not being anything, sadly. but any scout that watched the 6 games I did in 2011 would not have, could not have had Brett wallace (top 30), Max rameriz (top 100), and J.R. Towels (top 50) ranked ahead of Logan Schafer (top 500 maybe...).

 

My point being that prospect ranking are a great starting point for sifting minor league talent, but is no way something you should hold your hat on or be concerned about. I still cannot believe Schafer has forgotten how to hit, his swing was so pretty and his contact sounded sooooo good... Also none of the astros player really did anything thing, you could argue that schafer has had as good a MLB career as any of them (JB Schuck was on that team also).

[markedman5]

@billazbbphotog: Oh my. Gilbert Lara triples and is now 4-4 for AZL #Brewers, and it's only the 5th inning. AZL top prospect?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Medeiros I don't think so, any scout who's watched him pitch is going to say the same thing I have, he's a project at this time; there's a chance he makes it because of his rate stats but as I've said a couple of times Williams and Ventura control the strike zone much better than Kodi does. He's filthy, but he doesn't have first tier velocity, he's been working 88-93 all season, so people are going to see different ceilings when they watch him, and depending on what day and how many times they've seen him pitch will matter. I could see him being in the back 25 if enough people like him but generally speaking control projects with first tier velocity and plus stuff all the way around are the guys that get rated higher than they probably should be based on ceiling early in their career. He's atypical enough he's very hard to judge it many respects. I honestly believe that Williams is the more advanced pitcher even though he doesn't have Kodi's secondary stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the top 100 because he gets results, but he works mostly up and out of the strike zone, and I just don't think he's going to have to have the same level of success if he moves up with the same control. That's the part of his game that needs to take significant steps forward as he advances.

 

I really don't care that he's a project and inconsistent - he's 19. A 19 yr old with a unique arm slot will struggle with consistency (velocity, command, etc) until he gets some time to develop. The fact that Modeiros can be dominating at this stage in his career is fantastic, and IMO it warrants rating him highly. 1st tier velocity can come over time to a still developing kid, particularly one with an inconsistent delivery right now.

 

I agree that Modeiros has a very wide range of ceilings - if he struggles with command and consitency, or injuries, he probably profiles as a MLB reliever. If he figures it all out and stays healthy, he profiles as a top of the rotation starter with perennial Cy Young potential. Odds are good that his career will fall somewhere in between, but it's at least nice having a prospect with that type of upper tier ceiling potential. I remember Keith Law panning his draft position last year, and I remember my first thought was that the Brewers got a kid with Chris Sale potential out of high school, whereas Sale was drafted out of college in a similar 1st round spot.

[molitor fan]

not to over-hype, but Jorge Lopez' performance has to get some national recognition....I again assert he is a top 100 guy. His breaking pitch was voted the best in the Southern league, which to me is the top league in minor league baseball in regard to top talent.....

[FVBrewerFan]

not to over-hype, but Jorge Lopez' performance has to get some national recognition....I again assert he is a top 100 guy. His breaking pitch was voted the best in the Southern league, which to me is the top league in minor league baseball in regard to top talent.....

 

This is what impresses me. So many guys can put up big numbers getting by with a plus FB. Lopez has the best break a ball in AA, and a FB to go with it. Medeiros and others may have better stuff, but I will take a guy who is pitching this well at an advanced level. We can all rank guys in A or lower higher, but that's based on potential. Lopez is there now, or very close. I can see him fitting in very nicely in the 2017 rotation.

[MrTPlush]

not to over-hype, but Jorge Lopez' performance has to get some national recognition....I again assert he is a top 100 guy. His breaking pitch was voted the best in the Southern league, which to me is the top league in minor league baseball in regard to top talent.....

 

The way he keeps pitching I wouldn't be surprised to see him sneak in there.

 

I think the inability to develop pitching is a bit overblown. We have developed a lot of solid mid-rotation guys, but just have not struck gold with an ace. Lopez should become another solid #3

[Jenkins5]

not to over-hype, but Jorge Lopez' performance has to get some national recognition....I again assert he is a top 100 guy. His breaking pitch was voted the best in the Southern league, which to me is the top league in minor league baseball in regard to top talent.....

 

As of right now he looks to be Pitcher of Year as well I think. Since Mid May he has just been carving teams up. His 4 seam sits 92-94, 2 seam low 90s with sink, great curveball. Only knock is his change up but as Ben Sheets will tell you, it's possible to be a frontline man without using it much.

 

In my eyes both Hader & Lopez are top 100 pitchers and the top 2 in system. Young and proving it. Kodi, Devin and rest fighting for #3 in organization

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree, not necessary to have a great change if you have a great curve. I believe you need one or the other to be a top of the rotation guy, and since Lopez has the curve his ceiling is above #3 starter.

[reillymcshane]

In the Southern League, Lopez is 1st in Wins and WHIP, 2nd place in ERA and Strikeouts, 5th place in IP.

 

Not a bad year.

 

I said from the start it was all about Jorge putting it all together for an entire season. He's a nice example of a projectable guy who has taken steps each year, then seems to have put it all together this season.

 

I can definitely see him getting into the top 100, but I think it's too early to start labeling him as a top-of-the-rotation type player. You're lucky to have a handful of those kind of prospects every year. I just hope he keeps developing, maintaining his consistency, etc.

[Jenkins5]

Something click for him I think after having his son and facing the adversity he has had to deal with off the field. That forced him to grow up and mature pretty quickly. Moreover, think it gave him more motivation, reason, and sense of needing to be better to give his child the best life possible. Can't applaud him enough for the way he has performed over the last 2 years with those issues at home.

[brwrsfan]

Something click for him I think after having his son and facing the adversity he has had to deal with all the field. That all forced him to grow up and mature pretty quickly. Moreover, think it gave him more motivation, reason, and sense of needing to be better to give his child the life he wants. Can't applaud him enough for the way he had performed over the last 2 years with those issues at home.

 

I apologize...I don't follow everyone that closely. What happened?? Is it public knowledge?

[Mass Haas]

Something click for him I think after having his son and facing the adversity he has had to deal with all the field. That all forced him to grow up and mature pretty quickly. Moreover, think it gave him more motivation, reason, and sense of needing to be better to give his child the life he wants. Can't applaud him enough for the way he had performed over the last 2 years with those issues at home.

 

I apologize...I don't follow everyone that closely. What happened?? Is it public knowledge?

 

Here you go.

[Hammer]

I read that story when it was originally posted but reading it again brought the same tears to my eyes.

[Jenkins5]

Was the article mentioned about Jorge Lopez's biggest difference on the mound this season is exactly why he is above Mederois as top pitcher in our system. Lopez has learned how not to just throw his good stuff but now understands how to pitch using his great stuff. He understand when and why to throw this pitch to this batter in this count. Kodi has great stuff but simply throws it. He hasn't learned to pitch yet. like young Lopez, you just hold your breath he learns the craft of pitching aspect.

[brewcrewdue80]

Is he a top 100 in all of MiLB? Maybe prior to the draft. Now that the draft has happened, probably 10 manage to get ranked in the top 100 a few deserving, but others just because they are top 15 picks or so and they push Lopez back out of top 100. Lopez is on the Nelson rise with his numbers. He'll sneak in the top 100 falling in the 80s or so to begin next season should he keep this rate up roughly. For the most part #75-150 rankings in MiLB are like a 75A through the Alphbet 3 times. There's reasons current #75 doesn't belong as are reasons a guy at 150 belongs. It's probably like the Draft in who's a 1st rd pick and who's 2nd-3rd. with 3months to draft day. Who's hot gets in, who's not falls out.

 

I doubt many of this year's draftees will start as top-100 prospects. Maybe the top-5 or so.

 

Right now in MLB's top 100 15 were drafted this year. Fairly unbelievable if you ask me. I suggested 10. But there you have it. It's top 85 and 15 of this year's draftees sprinkled in. Now based on Lopez spot on Milw at 9th. He has to jump Taylor(easy) Lara(not as easy) Coulter(easy) Williams(not as easy) alone just to reach next at top 100 within.

 

You look at his numbers and say to yourself he's deserving to be ranked in top 100. Less than 9hits/9 just under 9ks/9 Only 8HRs in 125IP Under 3 ERA. He's either going to get his ranking when the season ends, or he'll be pitching for the Brewers before he's ever ranked in top 100 and all the ranking individuals when he succeeds will say, "Lopez was a guy I wanted to rank and was going to rank next time" Or if Lopez doesn't perform, "This is what we expected and why we kept him from a top 100 ranking"

 

Remember Toukki Toussaint? He's in the top 100. 46BB/62K ratio in 81IP and 10HRs allowed. He was ranked in top 100 immediately following draft. Do those numbers suggest he's earned it at this point vs Lopez? Why not send Toussaint to where Lopez is in their 100-150s type ranks and move Lopez up to #80-100 for what he's accomplished at a higher level this year?

[reillymcshane]

One thing about rankings is that often a position at 80 really isn't that different than a guy at 120. I think Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs pretty much said that with his rankings. The higher you go in the rankings, the harder it is. It's easy to pick the top 20, even the top 50, but after that, things get murkier. I believe John Sickels said something like as well - sort of like don't freak out if your guy is at 110 on his list instead of 90 or whatever. The guy is still a nice prospect at 110. No matter where Lopez lands, he's a nice prospect.

[TheCrew07]

At AA there are 3 leagues, it's not like A ball where there are just 2 leagues so while Lopez' curve getting recognition is nice, it doesn't automatically anoint him as a top 100 pitcher. The guys who won the awards for the other 2 leagues in Tyler Glasnow and Julio Urias are an entirely different level as pitchers. Blake Snell was listed as the best pitching prospect in the SL (hard to argue that BTW), and he profiles like a #3 as well. BA had Lopez at #10 in the Brewer organization at Mid season, I highly doubt he jumps to #5 for next year and even if he did he likely wouldn't be a top #100 guy on their list.

 

He's extremely intriguing, always has been, but a low 90s FB and 1 plus pitch means he profiles like a #3. He's a nice prospect with a wonderful story but let's not get carried away at his ultimate ceiling today when hardly any of us have had a chance to watch him pitch since WI.

[Outlander]

Top 50 per a Fangraphs chat with Kiley McDaniel

 

"Yep, his velo spiked, talked to a scout that saw him 92-95 recently. He's in the top 50."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-81915/

[reillymcshane]

Top 50 per a Fangraphs chat with Kiley McDaniel

 

"Yep, his velo spiked, talked to a scout that saw him 92-95 recently. He's in the top 50."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-81915/

Nice to hear. It's fun seeing people recognize our players.

 

Arcia is ranked #8 for all of the minors as well. It will be interesting to see what other players get into McDaniel's list (he's only published a top 25, but a bigger list is in the works).

[trwi7]

Didn't Jimmy Nelson have a velo spike at AA or AAA as well?

[TigerUppercut]

Top 50 per a Fangraphs chat with Kiley McDaniel

 

"Yep, his velo spiked, talked to a scout that saw him 92-95 recently. He's in the top 50."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-81915/

 

So 92-95 with the league's best curveball? Sounds like a Yovani Gallardo comp to me. I'd gladly take that assuming he continues to ascend.

[Jenkins5]

Unbelievable how much Lopez and Arcia have raised their stock this season! Got Arcia going from mostly a top 90 to 120 type prospect going to #8 and then Lopez from not even on radar to top 50! To bad Taylor & Coulter have not rose stock at all this season.

 

Lopez since mid May may arguably be one of the most dominate pitchers in all Milb. Teams haven't stood a chance with him on mound

[SRB]

Top 50 per a Fangraphs chat with Kiley McDaniel

 

"Yep, his velo spiked, talked to a scout that saw him 92-95 recently. He's in the top 50."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-prospects-chat-81915/

 

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